From myopia to clarity: sharpening the focus of ecosystem management through the lens of palaeoecology

100 years of anthropogenic impact causes changes in freshwater functional biodiversity

Despite efforts from scientists and regulators, biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate. Unless we find transformative solutions to preserve biodiversity, future generations may not be able to enjoy nature's services. We have developed a conceptual framework that establishes the links between biodiversity dynamics and abiotic change through time and space using artificial intelligence. Here, we apply this framework to a freshwater ecosystem with a known history of human impact and study 100 years of community-level biodiversity, climate change and chemical pollution trends. We apply explainable network models with multimodal learning to community-level functional biodiversity measured with multilocus metabarcoding, to establish correlations with biocides and climate change records. We observed that the freshwater community assemblage and functionality changed over time without returning to its original state, even if the lake partially recovered in recent times. Insecticides and fungicides, combined with extreme temperature events and precipitation, explained up to 90% of the functional biodiversity changes. The community-level biodiversity approach used here reliably explained freshwater ecosystem shifts. These shifts were not observed when using traditional quality indices (e.g. Trophic Diatom Index). Our study advocates the use of high-throughput systemic approaches on long-term trends over species-focused ecological surveys to identify the environmental factors that cause loss of biodiversity and disrupt ecosystem functions.

Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia's most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta's southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.

Incorporating a palaeo-perspective into Andean montane forest restoration

Reference ecosystems used in tropical forest restoration lack the temporal dimension required to characterise a mature or intact vegetation community. Here we provide a practical ‘palaeo-reference ecosystem’ for the eastern Andean forests of Ecuador to complement the standard ‘reference ecosystem’ approach. Pollen assemblages from sedimentary archives recovered from Ecuadorian montane forests are binned into distinct time periods and characterised as 1) Ancient (pre-human arrival), 2) Pre-European (Indigenous cultivation), 3) Successional (European arrival/Indigenous depopulation), 4) Mature (diminished human population), 5) Deforested (re-colonisation), and 6) Modern (industrial agriculture). A multivariate statistical approach is then used to identify the most recent period in which vegetation can be characterised as mature. Detrended correspondence analysis indicates that the pollen spectra from CE 1718-1819 (time bin 4 – Mature (diminished human population)) is most similar to that of a pre-human arrival mature or intact state. The pollen spectra of this period are characterised by Melastomataceae, Fabaceae, Solanaceae and Weinmannia. The vegetation of the 1700s, therefore, provides the most recent phase of substantial mature vegetation that has undergone over a century of recovery, representing a practical palaeo-reference ecosystem. We propose incorporating palynological analyses of short cores spanning the last 500 years with botanical inventory data to achieve more realistic and long-term restoration goals.

Analysis of the Complexities in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Ghana's Bui Dam Experience

The quest to improve the mired development challenges of developing economies at a global scale have in recent years constituted policy imprimatur of development discourse, including the role of national and local resources. “Nexus” is an ultra-prioritized integrative global development approach. It denotes connection(s) linking two or more phenomena or variables. It is therefore not surprising to witness of-the-moment approaches such as the development-security nexus, migration-development-security nexus, and water-energy nexus, among others. Particularly relevant to this article is the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus as an integrative strategy to tackle prosaic issues of industrialization, poverty reduction, food security, and ecological sustainability. Adopting a qualitative methodological approach, the article studies the Bui dam to elucidate how the nexus operates in a complex and tense environment. The central argument is that most analyses of WEF interventions, particularly from the mainstream development literature rarely interrogate complex politics of interest amongst the trident sectors (water, energy, and food). The dominant studies tend to dwell on the technical or instrumental aspects. But an understanding of the complex relationships at play needs a critical approach. Our key argument is that the WEF nexus is prominently embedded in complex historical systems that tend to counter-balance the hyper-deductive projected costs and benefits. It is critical to view the relations amongst the WEF from a non-linear and realistic perspective. WEF as an embodiment of a complex system helps us to understand the multi-level, contradictory, and diverse interests at play within, between, and across the systems. Even though the nexus operations on an assumption of seamless collaborative relations among and between institutions, agencies, and actors in the policy and program implementation space, an analysis of the Bui project in Ghana shows tensions, side-lining, and inter-role conflicts among the actors, where the energy sector actors weigh power and resources over other institutions and actors in the space to drive the nexus.

Late Holocene environmental change and anthropogenic: Ecosystem interaction on the Laikipia Plateau, Kenya

East African ecosystems have been shaped by long-term socio-ecological-environmental interactions. Although much previous work on human-environment interrelationships have emphasised the negative impacts of human interventions, a growing body of work shows that there have also often been strong beneficial connections between people and ecosystems, especially in savanna environments. However, limited information and understanding of past interactions between humans and ecosystems of periods longer than a century hampers effective management of contemporary environments. Here, we present a late Holocene study of pollen, fern spore, fungal spore, and charcoal analyses from radiocarbon-dated sediment sequences and assess this record against archaeological and historical data to describe socio-ecological changes on the Laikipia Plateau in Rift Valley Province, Kenya. The results suggest a landscape characterised by closed forests between 2268 years before present (cal year BP) and 1615 cal year BP when there was a significant change to a more open woodland/grassland mosaic that continues to prevail across the study area. Increased amounts of charcoal in the sediment are observed for this same period, becoming particularly common from around 900 cal year BP associated with fungal spores commonly linked to the presence of herbivores. It is likely these trends reflect changes in land use management as pastoral populations improved and extended pasture, using fire to eradicate disease-prone habitats. Implications for contemporary land use management are discussed in the light of these findings.

The Time Machine framework: monitoring and prediction of biodiversity loss

Transdisciplinary solutions are needed to achieve the sustainability of ecosystem services for future generations. We propose a framework to identify the causes of ecosystem function loss and to forecast the future of ecosystem services under different climate and pollution scenarios. The framework (i) applies an artificial intelligence (AI) time-series analysis to identify relationships among environmental change, biodiversity dynamics and ecosystem functions; (ii) validates relationships between loss of biodiversity and environmental change in fabricated ecosystems; and (iii) forecasts the likely future of ecosystem services and their socioeconomic impact under different pollution and climate scenarios. We illustrate the framework by applying it to watersheds, and provide system-level approaches that enable natural capital restoration by associating multidecadal biodiversity changes to chemical pollution.

The value of paleolimnology in reconstructing and managing ecosystem vulnerability: a systematic map

Vulnerability can measure an ecosystem’s susceptibility to change as a result of pressure or disturbance, but can be difficult to quantify. Reconstructions of past climate using paleolimnological methods can create a baseline to calibrate future projections of vulnerability, which can improve ecosystem management and conservation plans. Here, we conduct a systematic map to analyze the range and extent that paleolimnological published studies incorporated the concept of vulnerability. Additional themes of monitoring, management, conservation, restoration, or ecological integrity were also included. A total of 52 relevant unique articles were found, a majority of which were conducted in Europe or North America since 2011. Common themes identified included management and adaptation, with the latter heavily focussed on climate change or disturbance. From this, we can infer that the use of paleolimnology to discuss the concept of vulnerability is an emerging field. We argue that paleolimnology plays a valid role in the reconstruction of ecosystem vulnerability due to its capacity to broaden the scope of long-term monitoring, as well as its potential to help establish management and restoration plans. The use of paleolimnology in vulnerability analysis will provide a clearer lens of changes over time; therefore, it should be frequently implemented as a tool for vulnerability assessment.

Floristic evidence for alternative biome states in tropical Africa

The idea that tropical forest and savanna are alternative states is crucial to how we manage these biomes and predict their future under global change. Large-scale empirical evidence for alternative stable states is limited, however, and comes mostly from the multimodal distribution of structural aspects of vegetation. These approaches have been criticized, as structure alone cannot separate out wetter savannas from drier forests for example, and there are also technical challenges to mapping vegetation structure in unbiased ways. Here, we develop an alternative approach to delimit the climatic envelope of the two biomes in Africa using tree species lists gathered for a large number of forest and savanna sites distributed across the continent. Our analyses confirm extensive climatic overlap of forest and savanna, supporting the alternative stable states hypothesis for Africa, and this result is corroborated by paleoecological evidence. Further, we find the two biomes to have highly divergent tree species compositions and to represent alternative compositional states. This allowed us to classify tree species as forest vs. savanna specialists, with some generalist species that span both biomes. In conjunction with georeferenced herbarium records, we mapped the forest and savanna distributions across Africa and quantified their environmental limits, which are primarily related to precipitation and seasonality, with a secondary contribution of fire. These results are important for the ongoing efforts to restore African ecosystems, which depend on accurate biome maps to set appropriate targets for the restored states but also provide empirical evidence for broad-scale bistability.

Climate and land-use as the main drivers of recent environmental change in a mid-altitude mountain lake, Romanian Carpathians

Recent decades have been marked by unprecendented environmental changes which threaten the integrity of freshwater systems and their ecological value. Although most of these changes can be attributed to human activities, disentagling natural and anthropogenic drivers remains a challenge. In this study, surface sediments from Lake Ighiel, a mid-altitude site in the Carpathian Mts (Romania) were investigated following high-resolution sedimentological, geochemical, environmental magnetic and diatom analyses supported by historical cartographic and documentary evidence. Our results suggest that between 1920 and 1960 the study area experienced no significant anthropogenic impact. An excellent correspondence is observed between lake proxy responses (e.g., growth of submerged macrophytes, high detrital input, shifts in diatom assemblages) and parameters tracking natural hydroclimate variability (e.g., temperature, NAO). This highlights a dominant natural hydroclimatic control on the lacustrine system. From 1960 however, the depositional regime shifted markedly from laminated to homogenous clays; since then geochemical and magnetic data document a trend of significant (and on-going) subsurface erosion across the catchment. This is paralleled by a shift in lake ecosystem conditions denoting a strong response to an intensified anthropogenic impact, mainly through forestry. An increase in detrital input and marked changes in the diatom community are observed over the last three decades, alongside accelerated sedimentation rates following enhanced grazing and deforestation in the catchment. Recent shifts in diatom assemblages may also reflect forcing from atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, a key recent drive of diatom community turnover in mountain lakes. In general, enhanced human pressure alongside intermittent hydroclimate forcing drastically altered the landscape around Lake Ighiel and thus, the sedimentation regime and the ecosystem’s health. However, paleoenvironmental signals tracking natural hydroclimate variability are also clearly discernible in the proxy data. Our work illustrates the complex link between the drivers of catchment-scale impacts on one hand, and lake proxy responses on the other, highlighting the importance of an integrated historical and palaeolimnological approach to better assess lake system changes.

Hotspots of biotic compositional change in lakes along vast latitudinal transects in northern Canada

Ecotones mark zones of rapid change in ecological structure at various spatial scales. They are believed to be particularly susceptible to shifts caused by environmental transformation, making them key regions for studying the effects of global change. Here, we explored the variation in assemblage structure of aquatic primary producer and consumer communities across latitudinal transects in northeastern North America (Québec-Labrador) to identify spatial patterns in biodiversity that indicated the location of transition zones across the landscape. We analyzed species richness and the cumulative rate of compositional change (expressed as beta-diversity) of diatoms and chironomids to detect any abrupt shifts in the rate of spatial taxonomic turnover. We used principal coordinates analysis to estimate community turnover with latitude, then applied piecewise linear regression to assess the position of ecotones. Statistically significant changes in assemblage composition occurred at 52 and 55°N, corresponding to the transition between closed- and open-crown forest, and to the southern onset of the forest tundra (i.e., the forest limit), respectively. The spatial distribution of ecotones was most strongly related to air temperature for chironomids and to vegetation- and soil-related chemical attributes of lake water for diatoms, including dissolved organic carbon content and water color. Lakes at mid- to high-latitudes currently face pressures from rapidly rising temperatures, accompanied by large increases in organic carbon inputs from their catchments, often leading to browning and its associated effects. The biota at the base of food webs in lakes located in transition zones are disproportionately affected by the cascading effects of these multi-factorial changes, concurrent with pronounced terrestrial greening observed in these regions. Similar patterns of biotic shifts have been observed along alpine aquatic transects, indicating the potential for widespread restructuring of cold, high-altitude and high-latitude freshwater communities due to global change.

All is flux: the predictive power of fluctuating Quaternary mammalian faunal-climate scenarios

The long-term impact of Middle and Late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial change led to the major reorganization of mammalian faunal communities in northern Europe through species origination, extinction, evolutionary change and distributional shifts. A Bray-Curtis cluster analysis with single linkage to examine relative faunal similarity was performed on mammalian assemblages from five successively older interglacials (MIS 1, 5e, 7c-a, 9 and 11) in Britain, a region with an exceptionally well-resolved faunal record for this time period. The results indicate a degree of continuity in terms of common interglacial elements occurring across all periods but also reveal that the particular climatic and environmental parameters of each interglacial resulted in the generation of very different faunal assemblages, depending on the length, intensity and structure of the interglacial. Of particular note are the comparability of the mammalian assemblages from warm interglacials MIS 5e and 9, and the high species diversity seen in MIS 7c-a, linked to relatively cool temperate conditions and the spread of dry grasslands. Together, these results offer insight into the overall 'predictability' of Quaternary mammalian interglacial community composition and what might be expected in the natural evolution of a Holocene interglacial freed of anthropogenic interference. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

The Year 2017: Megafires and Management in the Cerrado

The year 2017 was a megafire year, when huge areas burned on different continents. In Brazil, a great extension of the Cerrado burned, raising once more the discussion about the “zero-fire” policy. Indeed, most protected areas of the Cerrado adopted a policy of fire exclusion and prevention, leading to periodic megafire events. Last year, 78% of the Chapada dos Veadeiros National Park burned at the end of the dry season, attracting media attention. Furthermore, 85% of the Reserva Natural Serra do Tombador burned as a result of a large accumulation of fuel caused by the zero-fire policy. In 2014, some protected areas started to implement the Integrate Fire Management (IFM) strategy. During 2017, in contrast to other protected areas, the Estação Ecológica Serra Geral do Tocantins experienced no megafire events, suggesting that a few years of IFM implementation led to changes in its fire regime. Therefore, we intended here to compare the total burned area and number of fire scars between the protected areas where IFM was implemented and those where fire exclusion is the adopted policy. The use of fire as a management tool aimed at wildfire prevention and biodiversity preservation should be reconsidered by local managers and environmental authorities for most Cerrado protected areas, especially those where open savanna physiognomies prevail. Changing the paradigm is a hard task, but last year’s events showed the zero-fire policy would bring more damage than benefits to Cerrado protected areas.

Freshwater lake ecosystem shift caused by social-economic transitions in Yangtze River Basin over the past century

Global lake systems have undergone rapid degradation over the past century. Scientists and managers are struggling to manage the highly degraded lake systems to cope with escalating anthropogenic pressures. Improved knowledge of how lakes and social systems co-evolved up to the present is vital for understanding, modeling, and anticipating the current and future ecological status of lakes. Here, by integrating paleoenvironmental, instrumental and historical documentary resources at multi-decadal scales, we demonstrate how a typical shallow lake system evolved over the last century in the Yangtze River Basin, an urbanized region containing thousands of shallow lakes. We find abrupt ecological shift happened in the lake ecosystem around the 1970s, with the significant reorganization of macrophyte, diatom and cladocera communities. The lake social-ecological system went through three stages as the local society transformed from a traditional agricultural before 1950s to an urbanized and industrialized society during the recent thirty years. The timing and interaction between social, economic and ecological feedbacks govern the transient and long-term dynamics of the freshwater ecosystem. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the long-term dynamics and feedbacks between ecological, social and economic changes when defining safe operating spaces for sustainable freshwater ecosystem management.

Late Holocene wetland transgression and 500 years of vegetation and fire variability in the semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya

The semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya, is characterised by intermittent groundwater-fed wetlands that form sedimentary geoarchives recording past ecosystem changes. We present a 5000-year environmental history of a radiocarbon dated sediment core from Esambu Swamp adjacent to Amboseli National Park. Although radiocarbon dates suggest an unconformity or sedimentary gap that spans between 3800 and 500 cal year BP, the record provides a unique insight into the long-term ecosystem history and wetland processes, particularly the past 500 years. Climatic shifts, fire activity and recent anthropogenic activity drive changes in ecosystem composition. Prior to 3800 cal year BP the pollen data suggest semi-arid savanna ecosystem persisted near the wetland. The wetland transgressed at some time between 3800 and 500 cal year BP and it is difficult to constrain this timing further, and palustrine peaty sediments have accumulated since 400 cal year BP. Increased abundance of Afromontane forest taxa from adjacent highlands of Kilimanjaro and the Chyulu Hills and local arboreal taxa reflect changes in regional moisture budgets. Particularly transformative changes occurred in the last five centuries, associated with increased local biomass burning coeval with the arrival of Maa-speaking pastoralists and intensification of the ivory trade. Cereal crops occurred consistently from around 300 cal year BP, indicative of further anthropogenic activity. The study provides unique insight in Amboseli ecosystem history and the link between ecosystem drivers of change. Such long-term perspectives are crucial for future climate change and associated livelihood impacts, so that suitable responses to ensure sustainable management practices can be developed in an important conservation landscape.

Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors

Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distribution-based method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-from-the-past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances.

Land-use history as a guide for forest conservation and management

Conservation efforts to protect forested landscapes are challenged by climate projections that suggest substantial restructuring of vegetation and disturbance regimes in the future. In this regard, paleoecological records that describe ecosystem responses to past variations in climate, fire, and human activity offer critical information for assessing present landscape conditions and future landscape vulnerability. We illustrate this point drawing on 8 sites in the northwestern United States, New Zealand, Patagonia, and central and southern Europe that have undergone different levels of climate and land-use change. These sites fall along a gradient of landscape conditions that range from nearly pristine (i.e., vegetation and disturbance shaped primarily by past climate and biophysical constraints) to highly altered (i.e., landscapes that have been intensely modified by past human activity). Position on this gradient has implications for understanding the role of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in shaping ecosystem dynamics and assessments of present biodiversity, including recognizing missing or overrepresented species. Dramatic vegetation reorganization occurred at all study sites as a result of postglacial climate variations. In nearly pristine landscapes, such as those in Yellowstone National Park, climate has remained the primary driver of ecosystem change up to the present day. In Europe, natural vegetation-climate-fire linkages were broken 6000-8000 years ago with the onset of Neolithic farming, and in New Zealand, natural linkages were first lost about 700 years ago with arrival of the Maori people. In the U.S. Northwest and Patagonia, the greatest landscape alteration occurred in the last 150 years with Euro-American settlement. Paleoecology is sometimes the best and only tool for evaluating the degree of landscape alteration and the extent to which landscapes retain natural components. Information on landscape-level history thus helps assess current ecological change, clarify management objectives, and define conservation strategies that seek to protect both natural and cultural elements.

Island biodiversity conservation needs palaeoecology

The discovery and colonization of islands by humans has invariably resulted in their widespread ecological transformation. The small and isolated populations of many island taxa, and their evolution in the absence of humans and their introduced taxa, mean that they are particularly vulnerable to human activities. Consequently, even the most degraded islands are a focus for restoration, eradication, and monitoring programmes to protect the remaining endemic and/or relict populations. Here, we build a framework that incorporates an assessment of the degree of change from multiple baseline reference periods using long-term ecological data. The use of multiple reference points may provide information on both the variability of natural systems and responses to successive waves of cultural transformation of island ecosystems, involving, for example, the alteration of fire and grazing regimes and the introduction of non-native species. We provide exemplification of how such approaches can provide valuable information for biodiversity conservation managers of island ecosystems.