Quantification of foot and mouth disease virus excretion and transmission within groups of lambs with and without vaccination

Evaluation of foot and mouth disease control measures: Simulating two endemic areas of Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016-2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD.

Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals, which is endemic in Ethiopia. An outbreak follow-up study was undertaken to quantify the transmission parameters of FMD in the crop-livestock mixed (CLM) system and commercial dairy farms in selected areas of northwest Ethiopia. The transmission parameters were quantified using a generalised linear model (GLM) based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The per day average transmission rate between animals was 0.26 (95% CI 0.22-0.32) and 0.33 (95% CI 0.21-0.57) in the CLM system and in the commercial dairy farms, respectively. The average basic reproduction ratio of FMD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.42-2.07) in the CLM system and 1.98 (95% CI 1.26-3.42) in the commercial dairy farms. The medium per day transmission rate and moderate basic reproduction ratio observed in this study indicated that a vaccination coverage needed to stop transmission of the disease in these populations might not be very high.

Bayesian inference of epidemiological parameters from transmission experiments

Epidemiological parameters for livestock diseases are often inferred from transmission experiments. However, there are several limitations inherent to the design of such experiments that limits the precision of parameter estimates. In particular, infection times and latent periods cannot be directly observed and infectious periods may also be censored. We present a Bayesian framework accounting for these features directly and employ Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to provide robust inferences and quantify the uncertainty in our estimates. We describe the transmission dynamics using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed compartmental model, with gamma-distributed transition times. We then fit the model to published data from transmission experiments for foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV). Where the previous analyses of these data made various assumptions on the unobserved processes in order to draw inferences, our Bayesian approach includes the unobserved infection times and latent periods and quantifies them along with all other model parameters. Drawing inferences about infection times helps identify who infected whom and can also provide insights into transmission mechanisms. Furthermore, we are able to use our models to measure the difference between the latent periods of inoculated and contact-challenged animals and to quantify the effect vaccination has on transmission.

Efficacy of a high potency O1 Manisa monovalent vaccine against heterologous challenge with foot-and-mouth disease virus of O/SEA/Mya-98 lineage in sheep

Potency tests for commercial oil-adjuvanted foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccines are usually carried out in cattle, using a full dose (2 ml) of vaccine and homologous virus challenge. However, in sheep the recommended vaccine dose is half of the cattle dose (1 ml) and most vaccines have not been potency tested for this species, especially with heterologous viruses. To determine the efficacy of a high potency (>6PD₅₀) FMD virus (FMDV) O1Manisa vaccine in sheep, we carried out a study using a heterologous FMDV (FMDV O/SKR/2010 - Mya-98 strain) challenge. Groups of seven animals each were vaccinated with 2×, 1×, 1/2× or 1/4× dose (2 ml, 1 ml, 0.5 ml or 0.25 ml respectively) and challenged at 7 days post vaccination (dpv). Only 3 of the 7 sheep in the group vaccinated with 2 ml were protected. With 2 additional groups, receiving double or single doses and challenged at 14 dpv, 4 of 7 sheep were protected in each group. None of the sheep had measurable neutralising antibodies against the vaccine or challenge virus at 7 dpv. However, all vaccinated animals challenged at 14 dpv had a homologous neutralising response against FMDV O1 Manisa on the day of challenge and all but one animal also had a heterologous response to FMDV O/SKR/2010. Infectious FMDV and viral RNA could be found in nasal swabs between 1 and 6 days post challenge (dpc) in most vaccinated sheep, but those vaccinated with higher doses or challenged at 14 dpv showed significant decreases in the level of FMDV detection. Intermittent virus shedding was noticed between 1 and 35 dpc in all vaccinated groups, but persistent infection could be demonstrated only in 4 sheep (20%). This study showed that at the recommended dose, a high potency (>6 PD₅₀) FMDV O1Manisa vaccine does not protect sheep against a heterologous challenge at 7 dpv. However, partial protection was observed when a double dose was used at 7 dpv or when double or single dose vaccinated sheep were challenged at 14 dpv.

Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus during the Incubation Period in Pigs

Understanding the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen’s capability to transmit during distinct phases of infection is important to enable accurate predictions of the spread and impact of a disease outbreak. In the current investigation, the potential for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) during the incubation (preclinical) period of infection was investigated in seven groups of pigs that were sequentially exposed to a group of donor pigs that were infected by simulated-natural inoculation. Contact-exposed pigs were comingled with infected donors through successive 8-h time slots spanning from 8 to 64 h post-inoculation (hpi) of the donor pigs. The transition from latent to infectious periods in the donor pigs was clearly defined by successful transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to all contact pigs that were exposed to the donors from 24 hpi and later. This onset of infectiousness occurred concurrent with detection of viremia, but approximately 24 h prior to the first appearance of clinical signs of FMD in the donors. Thus, the latent period of infection ended approximately 24 h before the end of the incubation period. There were significant differences between contact-exposed groups in the time elapsed from virus exposure to the first detection of FMDV shedding, viremia, and clinical lesions. Specifically, the onset and progression of clinical FMD were more rapid in pigs that had been exposed to the donor pigs during more advanced phases of disease, suggesting that these animals had received a higher effective challenge dose. These results demonstrate transmission and dissemination of FMD within groups of pigs during the incubation period of infection. Furthermore, these findings suggest that under current conditions, shedding of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluids is a more precise proxy for FMDV infectiousness than clinical signs of infection. These findings may impact modeling of the propagation of FMD outbreaks that initiate in pig holdings and should be considered when designing FMD control strategies.

Prevalence and risk factors for foot and mouth disease infection in small ruminants in Israel

During the last decade, 27% of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Israel affected small ruminant (SR) farms. FMD outbreaks reoccur in Israel despite vaccination of all livestock and application of control measures. We performed a cross-sectional serological study, aimed at estimating the prevalence of FMD infection in SR in Israel and the possible risk factors for infection. Overall, 2305 samples of adult sheep (n=1948) and goats (n=357) were collected during 2011-14 in two separate surveys. One survey was based on random sampling of intensive management system farms and the other was originally aimed at the detection of Brucella melitensis at extensive and semi-intensive management system farms. Sera were tested by NS blocking ELISA (PrioCHECK(®)). The serological prevalence of antibodies against non structural proteins (NSP) of FMD virus was estimated at 3.7% (95% confidence interval (CI95%)=3.0% -4.5%). Additionally, a significantly lower infection prevalence (p value=0.049) of 1.0% (CI95%=0.1%-3.6%) was found in a small sample (197 sera) of young SR, collected during 2012. The positive samples from adult SR were scattered all over Israel, though two significant infection clusters were found by the spatial scan statistic. Occurrence of an outbreak on a non-SR farm within 5km distance was associated with a fifteen times increase in the risk of FMD infection of SR in the univariable analysis. Yet, this variable was not included in the multivariable analysis due to collinearities with the other independent variables. Multivariable logistic regression modeling found significantly negative associations (P value<0.05) of grazing and being in a herd larger than 500 animals with risk of infection. Grazing herds and herds larger than 500 animals, both represent farms that are intensively or semi-intensively managed. Higher maintenance of bio-safety, fewer introductions of new animals and higher vaccination compliance in these farms may explain their lower risk of infection by FMD virus. We conclude that despite the wide distribution of infection among SR farms, low farm level prevalence indicates that in Israel SR pose only limited role in the transmission and dissemination of FMD. This conclusion may be applicable for other endemic countries in which, similar to Israel, all livestock are vaccinated against FMD.

Quantification of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus caused by an environment contaminated with secretions and excretions from infected calves

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infected animals can contaminate the environment with their secretions and excretions. To quantify the contribution of a contaminated environment to the transmission of FMDV, this study used calves that were not vaccinated and calves that were vaccinated 1 week prior to inoculation with the virus in direct and indirect contact experiments. In direct contact experiments, contact calves were exposed to inoculated calves in the same room. In indirect contact experiments, contact calves were housed in rooms that previously had held inoculated calves for three days (either from 0 to 3 or from 3 to 6 days post inoculation). Secretions and excretions from all calves were tested for the presence of FMDV by virus isolation; the results were used to quantify FMDV transmission. This was done using a generalized linear model based on a 2 route (2R, i.e. direct contact and environment) SIR model that included information on FMDV survival in the environment. The study shows that roughly 44% of transmission occurs via the environment, as indicated by the reproduction ratio R0(2R)environment that equalled 2.0, whereas the sum of R0(2R)contact and R0(2R)environment equalled 4.6. Because vaccination 1 week prior to inoculation of the calves conferred protective immunity against FMDV infection, no transmission rate parameters could be estimated from the experiments with vaccinated calves. We conclude that a contaminated environment contributes considerably to the transmission of FMDV therefore that hygiene measures can play a crucial role in FMD control.

Transmission characteristics and optimal diagnostic samples to detect an FMDV infection in vaccinated and non-vaccinated sheep

We wanted to quantify transmission of FMDV Asia-1 in sheep and to evaluate which samples would be optimal for detection of an FMDV infection in sheep. For this, we used 6 groups of 4 non-vaccinated and 6 groups of 4 vaccinated sheep. In each group 2 sheep were inoculated and contact exposed to 2 pen-mates. Viral excretion was detected for a long period (>21 days post-inoculation, dpi). Transmission of FMDV occurred in the non-vaccinated groups (R0=1.14) but only in the first week after infection, when virus shedding was highest. In the vaccinated groups no transmission occurred (Rv<1, p=0.013). The viral excretion of the vaccinated sheep and the viral load in their pens was significantly lower than that of the non-vaccinated sheep. FMDV could be detected in plasma samples from 12 of 17 infected non-vaccinated sheep, for an average of 2.1 days, but in none of the 10 infected vaccinated sheep. In contrast, FMDV could readily be isolated from mouth swab samples from both non-vaccinated and vaccinated infected sheep starting at 1-3 dpi and in 16 of 27 infected sheep up till 21 dpi. Serologically, after 3-4 weeks, all but one of the infected sheep were detected using the NS-ELISA. We conclude that vaccination of a sheep population would likely stop an epidemic of FMDV and that the use of mouth swab samples would be a good alternative (instead of using vesicular lesions or blood samples) to detect an FMD infection in a sheep population both early and prolonged after infection.

Vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to stop FMDV transmission in mixed populations of sheep and cattle

We quantified the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in mixed cattle-sheep populations and the effect of different vaccination strategies. The (partial) reproduction ratios (R) in groups of non-vaccinated and vaccinated cattle and/or sheep were estimated from (published) transmission experiments. A 4 × 4 next-generation matrix (NGM) was constructed using these estimates. The dominant eigenvalue of the NGM, the R for a mixed population, was determined for populations with different proportions of cattle and sheep and for three different vaccination strategies. The higher the proportion of cattle in a mixed cattle-sheep population, the higher the R for the mixed population. Therefore the impact of vaccination of the cattle is higher. After vaccination of all animals R = 0·1 independent of population composition. In mixed cattle-sheep populations with at least 14% of cattle, vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to reduce R to < 1.

Control of the deliberate spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most feared of transboundary animal diseases. Accidental or deliberate release of the causative agent can have both direct and indirect effects that result in massive economic losses and disruption. The direct effects of an FMD outbreak include immediate losses to agricultural production and disruption of local economies, while the indirect effects are mainly related to disease control measures such as restriction of market access at local and global levels and the high costs of disease control. To improve the capacity of the European Union (EU) to counter animal bioterrorism threats, AniBioThreat was launched with a special focus on threats to living animals, feed, and food of animal origin. As part of this project, several zoonotic or animal pathogenic agents are considered from different perspectives. FMD virus was selected as one agent to be scrutinized because it is highly contagious and an outbreak can have a severe economic impact. Ways to fight a deliberate outbreak can be demonstrated through the example of FMD. In this article, the virology and epidemiology of FMD virus are discussed with special attention to the related law enforcement aspects.

Estimation of the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from infected sheep to cattle

The quantitative role of sheep in the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is not well known. To estimate the role of sheep in the transmission of FMDV, a direct contact transmission experiment with 10 groups of animals each consisting of 2 infected lambs and 1 contact calf was performed. Secretions and excretions (oral swabs, blood, urine, faeces and probang samples) from all animals were tested for the presence of FMDV by virus isolation (VI) and/or RT-PCR. Serum was tested for the presence of antibodies against FMDV. To estimate FMDV transmission, the VI, RT-PCR and serology results were used. The partial reproduction ratio R₀^p i.e. the average number of new infections caused by one infected sheep introduced into a population of susceptible cattle, was estimated using either data of the whole infection chain of the experimental epidemics (the transient state method) or the final sizes of the experimental epidemics (the final size method). Using the transient state method, R₀^p was estimated as 1.0 (95% CI 0.2 - 6.0) using virus isolation results and 1.4 (95% CI 0.3 - 8.0) using RT-PCR results. Using the final size method, R₀^p was estimated as 0.9 (95% CI 0.2 - 3.0). Finally, R₀^p was compared to the R₀’s obtained in previous transmission studies with sheep or cattle only. This comparison showed that the infectivity of sheep is lower than that of cattle and that sheep and cattle are similarly susceptible to FMD. These results indicate that in a mixed population of sheep and cattle, sheep play a more limited role in the transmission of FMDV than cattle.

A multi-analysis approach for space-time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: the example of FMD in Peru

This study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of livestock diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI-II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV) connects outputs from mI-III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I-IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 37 (1, 1164), 2152 (1, 13, 250), 63 days (0, 442), and US$ 1.2 million (1072, 9.5 million), respectively. Spread of disease was primarily local (<4.5km), but geolocation and type of index farm strongly influenced the extent and spatial patterns of an epidemic. The approach is intended to support decisions in the last phase of the FMD eradication program in Peru, in particular to inform and support the implementation of risk-based surveillance and livestock insurance systems that may help to prevent and control potential FMD virus incursions into Peru.

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.

Identification of factors associated with increased excretion of foot-and-mouth disease virus

We investigated which variables possibly influence the amount of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) shed in secretions and excretions by FMDV infected animals, as it is likely that the amount of FMDV shed is related to transmission risk. First, in a separate analysis of laboratory data, we showed that the total amount of FMDV in secretions and excretions from infected animals is highly correlated with maximum titres of FMDV. Next, we collected data from 32 published scientific articles in which FMDV infection experiments were described. The maximum titres of FMDV reported in different secretions and excretions (the response variable) and the experimental conditions in which they occurred (the explanatory variables), were recorded in a database and analyzed using multivariate regression models with and without random effects. In both types of models, maximum titres of FMDV were significantly (p<0.05) associated with types of secretions and excretions, animal species, stage of the disease and days post infection. These results can be used to prioritize biosecurity measures in contingency plans.

Vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease I: epidemiological consequences

An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can have devastating effects on animal welfare, economic revenues, the export position and society as a whole, as occurred during the 2001 FMD epidemic in the Netherlands. Following the preemptive culling of 260,000 animals during this outbreak, the Dutch government adopted emergency vaccination as preferred control policy. However, a vaccination-to-live strategy has not been applied before, posing unprecedented challenges for effectively controlling the epidemic, regaining FMD-free status and minimizing economic losses. These three topics are covered in an interdisciplinary model analysis. In this first part we evaluate whether and how emergency vaccination can be effectively applied to control FMD epidemics in the Netherlands. For this purpose we develop a stochastic individual-based model that describes FMD virus transmission between animals and between herds, taking heterogeneity between host species (cattle, sheep and pigs) into account. Our results in a densely populated livestock area with >4 farms/km(2) show that emergency ring vaccination can halt the epidemic as rapidly as preemptive ring culling, while the total number of farms to be culled is reduced by a factor of four. To achieve this reduction a larger control radius around detected farms and a corresponding adequate vaccination capacity is needed. Although sufficient for the majority of simulated epidemics with a 2 km vaccination zone, the vaccination capacity available in the Netherlands can be exhausted by pig farms that are on average ten times larger than cattle herds. Excluding pig farms from vaccination slightly increases the epidemic, but more than halves the number of animals to be vaccinated. Hobby flocks - modelled as small-sized sheep flocks - do not play a significant role in propagating the epidemic, and need not be targeted during the control phase. In a more sparsely populated livestock area in the Netherlands with about 2 farms/km(2) the minimal control strategy of culling only detected farms seems sufficient to control an epidemic.

Models to capture the potential for disease transmission in domestic sheep flocks

Successful control of livestock diseases requires an understanding of how they spread amongst animals and between premises. Mathematical models can offer important insight into the dynamics of disease, especially when built upon experimental and/or field data. Here the dynamics of a range of epidemiological models are explored in order to determine which models perform best in capturing real-world heterogeneities at sufficient resolution. Individual based network models are considered together with one- and two-class compartmental models, for which the final epidemic size is calculated as a function of the probability of disease transmission occurring during a given physical contact between two individuals. For numerical results the special cases of a viral disease with a fast recovery rate (foot-and-mouth disease) and a bacterial disease with a slow recovery rate (brucellosis) amongst sheep are considered. Quantitative results from observational studies of physical contact amongst domestic sheep are applied and results from the differently structured flocks (ewes with newborn lambs, ewes with nearly weaned lambs and ewes only) compared. These indicate that the breeding cycle leads to significant changes in the expected basic reproduction ratio of diseases. The observed heterogeneity of contacts amongst animals is best captured by full network simulations, although simple compartmental models describe the key features of an outbreak but, as expected, often overestimate the speed of an outbreak. Here the weights of contacts are heterogeneous, with many low weight links. However, due to the well-connected nature of the networks, this has little effect and differences between models remain small. These results indicate that simple compartmental models can be a useful tool for modelling real-world flocks; their applicability will be greater still for more homogeneously mixed livestock, which could be promoted by higher intensity farming practices.

Clinical protection, sub-clinical infection and persistence following vaccination with extinction payloads of O1 Manisa Foot-and-Mouth Disease monovalent vaccine and challenge in goats and comparison with sheep

Small ruminants play an important role in the epidemiology of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD). Small ruminants are vaccinated with one-half or one-third of cattle dose of oil-based or aqueous vaccines respectively. The extinction antigen payload in vaccine for protection in small ruminants is poorly studied. FMD seronegative Nellore sheep (n=30) and Osmanabadi goats (n=30) were vaccinated with different payloads of O(1) Manisa vaccine (0.45-5 μg). Vaccinated and sero-negative unvaccinated sheep (n=6) and goats (n=6) were challenged intradermally into the coronary band with O(1) Manisa virus. The sheep and goats were monitored for signs of FMD and samples were collected for measuring viraemia and virus associated with nasal swabs and probang samples. Clotted blood was collected for serology. Vaccines containing antigen payload up to 0.94 μg protected sheep and goats against challenge. Sheep and goats vaccinated with 0.45 μg antigen payload were poorly protected against challenge. An antigen payload of 0.94 μg was sufficient to offer complete protection and also absence of carrier status. Sheep and goats with no vaccination or with poor sero conversion to vaccination showed sub-clinical infection and became carriers. The results of the study suggest that vaccination offers protection from clinical disease even at a low payload of 0.94 μg and hence one-half of cattle dose of the oil-based vaccine formulations is sufficient to induce protective immune response in sheep and goats. Since no live virus could be isolated after 5 days post challenge from the nasal swab or probang samples even though viral RNA was detected, the risk of these animals transmitting disease was probably very low.

Immune Response in Goats to Different Payloads of FMDV Monovalent Vaccine: Protection Against Virulent Challenge and Development of Carrier Status

The relationship of Foot-and-Mouth Disease virus antigen payload and number of dose of vaccine conferring protection against virus challenge in goats was studied. Goats vaccinated with oil adjuvant Foot-and-Mouth Disease vaccines containing different antigen payloads with or without booster resisted virulent challenge at 21 days post-vaccination or 7 days after booster respectively. However, localized sub-clinical infection was observed in two vaccinated goats on 35 days post-challenge. RNA could be detected from 31.8% of vaccinated goats (10(2.69)-10(4.99) viral RNA copies per cotton swab of nasal secretions) on day 35 post-challenge. Since no live virus could be isolated after 5 days post-challenge, the risk of these animals transmitting the disease was probably very low. The finding showed that oil adjuvant Foot-and-Mouth Disease vaccines containing antigen payload of 1.88 μg may prevent or reduce the local virus replication at the oropharynx and shedding of virus from nasal secretions and thereby reduce the amount of virus released into the environment subsequent to exposure to live virus. This study also showed that goats with poor sero conversion to vaccination can be infected without overt clinical signs and became carriers like sheep.

Parameterization of the duration of infection stages of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus: an analytical review and meta-analysis with application to simulation models

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered one of the most important infectious diseases of livestock because of the devastating economic consequences that it inflicts in affected regions. The value of critical parameters, such as the duration of the latency or the duration of the infectious periods, which affect the transmission rate of the FMD virus (FMDV), are believed to be influenced by characteristics of the host and the virus. Disease control and surveillance strategies, as well as FMD simulation models, will benefit from improved parameter estimation. The objective of this study was to quantify the distributions of variables associated with the duration of the latency, subclinical, incubation, and infectiousness periods of FMDV transmission. A double independent, systematic review of 19 retrieved publications reporting results from experimental trials, using 295 animals in four reference laboratories, was performed to extract individual values related to FMDV transmission. Probability density functions were fitted to data and a set of regression models were used to identify factors associated with the assessed parameters. Latent, subclinical, incubation, and infectious periods ranged from 3.1 to 4.8, 2 to 2.3, 5.5 to 6.6, and 3.3 to 5.7 days, respectively. Durations were significantly (p < 0.05) associated independently with route of exposure, type of donor, animal species, strains, characteristics of sampling, and clinical signs. These results will contribute to the improvement of disease control and surveillance strategies and stochastic models used to simulate FMD spread and, ultimately, development of cost-effective plans to prevent and control the potential spread of the disease in FMD-free regions of the world.

Model or meal? Farm animal populations as models for infectious diseases of humans

In recent decades, theory addressing the processes that underlie the dynamics of infectious diseases has progressed considerably. Unfortunately, the availability of empirical data to evaluate these theories has not grown at the same pace. Although laboratory animals have been widely used as models at the organism level, they have been less appropriate for addressing issues at the population level. However, farm animal populations can provide empirical models to study infectious diseases at the population level.

The effect of vaccination on undetected persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle herds and sheep flocks

The importance of carrier animals (those in whom virus persists after recovery from disease or acute infection) and their potential role in the spread of disease remain open questions within foot-and-mouth disease epidemiology. Using simple probabilistic models we attempt to quantify the effect of emergency vaccination--and especially the time of application--on the likely number of such animals, using data from challenge experiments on both cattle and sheep to determine the probability of persistence in diseased and subclinically infected animals. We show that the number of persistently infected animals in a group is predominantly determined by the number of animals initially infected on premises--the high variability of which ultimately limits the accuracy of any predictions of carrier numbers based upon transmission models. Furthermore, results suggest that, within a cattle herd, carrier numbers may be increased if challenge occurs shortly after vaccination. We show that the quality of inspection is the principal factor influencing whether or not carrier herds occur and that, by reducing clinical signs, the application of vaccination in regularly checked stock also results in an increase in undetected persistently infected animals. Where clinical detection would be poor regardless of the use of vaccination (i.e. particularly in sheep), vaccination will result in a reduction in the probability of a group containing undetected carriers: otherwise there is a benefit only if vaccination is applied sufficiently far in advance of any challenge. The implications of the results for serosurveillance are discussed, including the requisite test sensitivity and practices for successful implementation.

Experimental evaluation of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines for emergency use in ruminants and pigs: a review

Changes to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control policies since 2001 mean that emergency vaccination must be considered more readily as a control measure in the future. Since field application of vaccine for emergency use has only rarely been applied, the effectiveness of single dose administration, as a control measure in an outbreak situation, is poorly understood. In this review we consider all the available experimental data from studies utilizing either experimental or readily available, commercially produced vaccines, in order to assess their likely effectiveness as an additional means of controlling FMD transmission and spread in an emergency. Overall it is concluded that such vaccines offer an additional and valuable means of FMD control for both ruminants and pigs. They are able to reduce clinical disease, sub-clinical infection and excretion and onward transmission of virus. However, to be most effective, vaccination should be rapidly applied to give maximum opportunity for immunity to develop. We also identify areas for future research and emphasize the importance of vaccine efficacy studies in providing data for models that can help to predict the efficacy of differing FMD control strategies.

Application of modelling to determine the absence of foot-and-mouth disease in the face of a suspected incursion

AIM

To use disease modelling to inform a response team about the number of animals per herd/flock to be examined, and the start date and duration of clinical surveillance required to be confident that foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was not present on an island in New Zealand with a population of approximately 1,600 cattle, 10,000 sheep and a small number of pigs, goats and alpacas.

METHODS

Because the probability of detecting clinical disease in (the) primary case(s) in larger herds and flocks was extremely low, deterministic and stochastic mathematical SLIR (susceptible, latent, infectious, recovered) models for the transmission of infection were constructed to estimate the date when clinical lesions in herds and flocks would be detected with 95% confidence. Surveillance targeted the first wave of infections following a suspect index case.

RESULTS

If 70 cattle in herds of about 400 cattle were examined it was estimated it would take approximately 13 (90% stochastic range 9-19) days from first exposure before it would be possible to achieve 95% confidence for detecting clinical signs for a low-virulence virus, and 9 (7-14) days for a high-virulence virus. The duration of sufficiently accurate clinical detection was 17 (15-19) days and 13 (12-14) days for low- and high-virulence viruses, respectively. A sample of 70 sheep from flocks of >1,000 would be required to achieve clinical detection at about the same time but with a shorter period of detection than for cattle. The duration of effective detection could be increased by examining a larger sample in most sheep flocks, however the small size of many cattle herds in the study population limited the confidence of detecting group-level disease in cattle, therefore necessitating repeated herd inspections. The model suggested that group-level detection was not feasible if it was based on elevated body temperature alone because of short durations of fever in infected animals.

CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Simulation modelling is a useful and powerful tool for informing ongoing surveillance activities in the face of an exotic disease incursion. Results of modelling suggested to start clinical inspection activities at 4 days and to continue regular inspection twice a week for about 35 days after the date of first exposure, to satisfy the required 95% confidence threshold of clinical detection of FMD in cattle herds and sheep flocks.

Further evaluation of higher potency vaccines for early protection of cattle against FMDV direct contact challenge

The effect of administering higher payload FMD vaccines 10 days prior to severe direct contact challenge on protection from clinical disease and sub-clinical infection was investigated in cattle using two antigen payloads (single strength and 10-fold). Regardless of antigen payload, vaccination was shown to significantly reduce the number of clinically infected animals, and significantly reduce virus excretion shortly after challenge, when compared with the unvaccinated group (P<0.05). Although FMDV transmission occurred from single strength vaccinated infected cattle to similarly vaccinated cattle held in indirect contact, no disease was induced in these animals. These studies further confirm that emergency vaccination does significantly reduce clinical disease and sub-clinical virus replication and excretion, particularly early post exposure, thereby reducing the possibility of transmission between animals and herds. To be most effective, however, the results also substantiate that time of vaccination prior to challenge significantly influences the number of animals becoming infected, so the decision to vaccinate should be made swiftly, to allow maximum opportunity for protective immunity to develop.