The potential impact of an HIV vaccine with limited protection on HIV incidence in Thailand: a modeling study

Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study

Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.

HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine

BACKGROUND

Development of an HIV vaccine might be essential to ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic. However, vaccines can result in the emergence and spread of vaccine-resistant strains. Indeed, analyses of breakthrough infections in the HIV phase 3 vaccine trial RV144 identified HIV genotypes with differential rates of transmission in vaccine and placebo recipients. We hypothesized that, for HIV vaccination programs based on partially effective vaccines similar to RV144, HIV adaptation will rapidly diminish the expected vaccine impact.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using two HIV epidemic models, we simulated large-scale vaccination programs and, critically, included HIV strain diversity with respect to the vaccine response. We show here that rapid population-level viral adaptation can lead to decreased overall vaccine efficacy and substantially fewer infections averted by vaccination, when comparing scenarios with and without viral evolution (with outcomes depending on vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy against the sensitive allele, and the initial resistant allele frequency). Translating this to the epidemic in South Africa, a scenario with 70% vaccination coverage may result in 250,000 infections (non-averted by vaccination) within 10 years of vaccine rollout that are due solely to HIV adaptation, all else being equal.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that approaches to HIV vaccine development, program implementation, and epidemic modeling may require attention to viral adaptation in response to vaccination.

Exploring evidence for behavioral risk compensation among participants in an HIV vaccine clinical trial

BACKGROUND

HIV vaccine trial participants may engage in behavioral risk compensation due to a false sense of protection. We conducted an ancillary study of an HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) vaccine efficacy trial to explore risk compensation among trial participants compared to persons who were willing to participate but ineligible based on previous exposure to the Ad5 virus (Ad5+) across three timepoints.

METHODS

Participants were drawn from the Atlanta, GA site of the HVTN 505 vaccine trial. From 2011-2013, all persons who met prescreening criteria for the clinical trial and presented for Ad5 antibody testing were invited to participate in the ancillary study. Data were collected from vaccine trial participants (n=51) and Ad5+ participants (n=60) via online surveys across three timepoints: baseline, T2 (after trial participants received 2/4 injections) and T3 (after trial participants received 4/4 injections). Data analyses assessed demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral differences at baseline and changes at each timepoint.

RESULTS

At baseline, Ad5+ participants were less likely to have some college education (p=0.024) or health insurance (p=0.008), and were more likely to want to participate in the vaccine trial "to feel safer having unprotected sex" (p=0.005). Among vaccine trial participants, unprotected anal sex with a casual partner (p=0.05), HIV transmission worry (p=0.033), and perceived chance of getting HIV (p=0.027), decreased across timepoints.

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings suggest that persons with previous exposure to Ad5 may be systematically different from their Ad5-negative peers. Unprotected anal sex with a casual partner significantly decreased among HIV vaccine trial participants, as did HIV worry and perceived chance of getting HIV. Findings did not support evidence of risk compensation among HIV vaccine trial participants compared to Ad5+ participants.

Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact

BACKGROUND

Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses advanced analytical methods (e.g. simulation, optimisation, decision analysis) to better understand complex systems and aid in decision-making. Herein, we present a scoping review of the use of OR to analyse issues in global health, with an emphasis on health equity and research impact. A systematic search of five databases was designed to identify relevant published literature. A global overview of 1099 studies highlights the geographic distribution of OR and common OR methods used. From this collection of literature, a narrative description of the use of OR across four main application areas of global health - health systems and operations, clinical medicine, public health and health innovation - is also presented. The theme of health equity is then explored in detail through a subset of 44 studies. Health equity is a critical element of global health that cuts across all four application areas, and is an issue particularly amenable to analysis through OR. Finally, we present seven select cases of OR analyses that have been implemented or have influenced decision-making in global health policy or practice. Based on these cases, we identify three key drivers for success in bridging the gap between OR and global health policy, namely international collaboration with stakeholders, use of contextually appropriate data, and varied communication outlets for research findings. Such cases, however, represent a very small proportion of the literature found.

CONCLUSION

Poor availability of representative and quality data, and a lack of collaboration between those who develop OR models and stakeholders in the contexts where OR analyses are intended to serve, were found to be common challenges for effective OR modelling in global health.

The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Vaccines: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper was to review and compare HIV vaccine cost-effectiveness analyses and describe the effects of uncertainty in model, methodology, and parameterization.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE (1985 through May 2016), EMBASE, the Tufts CEA Registry, and reference lists of articles following Cochrane guidelines and PRISMA reporting. Eligibility criteria included peer-reviewed manuscripts with economic models estimating cost-effectiveness of preventative HIV vaccines. Two reviewers independently assessed study quality and extracted data on model assumptions, characteristics, input parameters, and outcomes.

RESULTS

The search yielded 71 studies, of which 11 met criteria for inclusion. Populations included low-income (n=7), middle-income (n=4), and high-income countries (n=2). Model structure varied including decision tree (n=1), Markov (n=5), compartmental (n=4), and microsimulation (n=1). Most measured outcomes in quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained (n=6) while others used unadjusted (n=3) or disability adjusted life-years (n=2). HIV vaccine cost ranged from $1.54 -$75 USD in low-income countries, $55-$100 in middle-income countries, and $500-$1,000 in the United States. Base case ICERs ranged from dominant (cost-offsetting) to $91,000 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSION

Most models predicted HIV vaccines would be cost-effective. Model assumptions about vaccine price, HIV treatment costs, epidemic context, and willingness to pay influenced results more consistently than assumptions on HIV transmission dynamics.

HIV Transmission Risk Behavior in a Cohort of HIV-Infected Treatment-Naïve Men and Women in the United States

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can minimize HIV transmission. Prevention benefits may be compromised by barriers to virologic suppression, and by increased condomless sex among those initiating ART. We evaluated condomless sex in a cohort of HIVinfected US individuals poised to initiate ART in a clinical trial. We assessed partner and sex act type, condom use, and perception of infectiousness. Six percent of participants reported as not infectious; men who have sex with men were more likely to perceive high infectivity. Prevalence of condomless sex was 44 %; 74 % of those also reported homosexual acquisition of HIV. Predictors of increased risk of condomless sex included greater numbers of lifetime partners, recent stimulant drug use and an HIV-positive or unknown serostatus partner. In the context of serodifferent partners, lower perception of infectiousness was also associated with a higher risk of condomless sex. Results highlight opportunities for prevention education for HIV infected individuals at ART initiation.

Projected economic evaluation of the national implementation of a hypothetical HIV vaccination program among adolescents in South Africa, 2012

BACKGROUND

Adolescents in South Africa are at high risk of acquiring HIV. The HIV vaccination of adolescents could reduce HIV incidence and mortality. The potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national school-based HIV vaccination program among adolescents was determined.

METHOD

The national HIV disease and cost burden was compared with (intervention) and without HIV vaccination (comparator) given to school-going adolescents using a semi-Markov model. Life table analysis was conducted to determine the impact of the intervention on life expectancy. Model inputs included measures of disease and cost burden and hypothetical assumptions of vaccine characteristics. The base-case HIV vaccine modelled cost at US$ 12 per dose; vaccine efficacy of 50 %; duration of protection of 10 years achieved at a coverage rate of 60 % and required annual boosters. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated using life years gained (LYG) serving as the outcome measure. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the vaccine characteristics to assess parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

The HIV vaccination model yielded an ICER of US$ 5 per LYG (95 % CI ZAR 2.77-11.61) compared with the comparator, which is considerably less than the national willingness-to-pay threshold of cost-effectiveness. This translated to an 11 % increase in per capita costs from US$ 80 to US$ 89. National implementation of this intervention could potentially result in an estimated cumulative gain of 23.6 million years of life (95 % CI 8.48-34.3 million years) among adolescents age 10-19 years that were vaccinated. The 10 year absolute risk reduction projected by vaccine implementation was 0.42 % for HIV incidence and 0.41 % for HIV mortality, with an increase in life expectancy noted across all age groups. The ICER was sensitive to the vaccine efficacy, coverage and vaccine pricing in the sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

A national HIV vaccination program would be cost-effective and would avert new HIV infections and decrease the mortality and morbidity associated with HIV disease. Decision makers would have to discern how these findings, derived from local data and reflective of the South African epidemic, can be integrated into the national long term health planning should a HIV vaccine become available.

Are Clade Specific HIV Vaccines a Necessity? An Analysis Based on Mathematical Models

As HIV-1 envelope immune responses are critical to vaccine related protection, most candidate HIV vaccines entering efficacy trials are based upon a clade specific design. This need for clade specific vaccine prototypes markedly reduces the implementation of potentially effective HIV vaccines. We utilized a mathematical model to determine the effectiveness of immediate roll-out of a non-clade matched vaccine with reduced efficacy compared to constructing clade specific vaccines, which would take considerable time to manufacture and test in safety and efficacy trials. We simulated the HIV epidemic in San Francisco (SF) and South Africa (SA) and projected effectiveness of three vaccination strategies: i) immediate intervention with a 20–40% vaccine efficacy (VE) non-matched vaccine, ii) delayed intervention by developing a 50% VE clade-specific vaccine, and iii) immediate intervention with a non-matched vaccine replaced by a clade-specific vaccine when developed. Immediate vaccination with a non-clade matched vaccine, even with reduced efficacy, would prevent thousands of new infections in SF and millions in SA over 30 years. Vaccination with 50% VE delayed for five years needs six and 12 years in SA to break-even with immediate 20 and 30% VE vaccination, respectively, while not able to surpass the impact of immediate 40% VE vaccination over 30 years. Replacing a 30% VE with a 50% VE vaccine after 5 years reduces the HIV acquisition by 5% compared to delayed vaccination. The immediate use of an HIV vaccine with reduced VE in high risk communities appears desirable over a short time line but higher VE should be the pursued to achieve strong long-term impact. Our analysis illustrates the importance of developing surrogate markers (correlates of protection) to allow bridging types of immunogenicity studies to support more rapid assessment of clade specific vaccines.

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Rapid deployment of non-clade matched HIV vaccines would be an effective public-health strategy in high risk populations.

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Pursuit of further incremental increase in vaccine efficacy is justified and will result in better long term effectiveness.

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Reduced condom use by vaccinated individuals may diminish the advantage of the replacement vaccination strategy.

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Reliable surrogate markers of vaccine efficacy are needed to speed up the development of effective HIV vaccines.

The HIV vaccine field has followed the concept of clade specific (clade matched) vaccines for over 30 years. We investigate the implementation of non-clade matched and clade specific vaccines by simulating the HIV epidemics in San Francisco and South Africa: two regions of the world where the epidemics are well characterized. Our analysis suggests that rapid deployment of a non-clade matched vaccine would be an effective public health strategy. The most effective 10-year vaccination strategy is to employ non-clade matched vaccines in highest risk populations followed by the rapid development of a more effective clade matched prototype.

Stakeholder Engagement in HIV Cure Research: Lessons Learned from Other HIV Interventions and the Way Forward

Clinical and basic science advances have raised considerable hope for achieving an HIV cure by accelerating research. This research is dominated primarily by issues about the nature and design of current and future clinical trials. Stakeholder engagement for HIV cure remains in its early stages. Our analysis examines timing and mechanisms of historical stakeholder engagement in other HIV research areas for HIV-uninfected individuals [vaccine development and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)], and HIV-infected individuals (treatment as prevention, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and treatment of acute HIV infection) and articulate a plan for HIV cure stakeholder engagement. The experience from HIV vaccine development shows that early engagement of stakeholders helped manage expectations, mitigating the failure of several vaccine trials, while paving the way for subsequent trials. The relatively late engagement of HIV stakeholders in PrEP research may partly explain some of the implementation challenges. The treatment-related stakeholder engagement was strong and community-led from the onset and helped translation from research to implementation. We outline five steps to initiate and sustain stakeholder engagement in HIV cure research and conclude that stakeholder engagement represents a key investment in which stakeholders mutually agree to share knowledge, benefits, and risk of failure. Effective stakeholder engagement prevents misconceptions. As HIV cure research advances from early trials involving subjects with generally favorable prognosis to studies involving greater risk and uncertainty, success may depend on early and deliberate engagement of stakeholders.

Human immunodeficiency virus vaccines

Although some success was achieved in recent years in HIV prevention, an effective vaccine remains the means with the most potential of curtailing HIV-1 infections worldwide. Despite multiple failed attempts, a recent HIV vaccine regimen demonstrated modest protection from infection. Although the protective efficacy in this trial was not sufficient to warrant licensure, it spurred renewed optimism in the field and has provided valuable insights for improving future vaccine designs. This review summarizes the pertinent details of vaccine development and discusses ways the field is moving forward to develop a vaccine to prevent HIV infection and disease progression.

Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting

Background

It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy—both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected—in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings.

Methods

An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa.

Results

In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years), a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040–2060 is 11%. A vaccine with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14%) reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040–2060). These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis.

Interpretation

Introduction of a partially effective preventive HIV vaccine would make a substantial long-term impact on HIV epidemics in southern Africa, in addition to the effects of ART. Development of an HIV vaccine, even of relatively low apparent efficacy at the individual level, remains a critical global public health goal.

Spending of HIV resources in Asia and Eastern Europe: systematic review reveals the need to shift funding allocations towards priority populations

INTRODUCTION

It is increasingly important to prioritize the most cost-effective HIV interventions. We sought to summarize the evidence on which types of interventions provide the best value for money in regions with concentrated HIV epidemics.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature reporting measurements of cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit for HIV/AIDS interventions in Asia and Eastern Europe. We also collated HIV/AIDS spending assessment data from case-study countries in the region.

RESULTS

We identified 91 studies for inclusion, 47 of which were from peer-reviewed journals. Generally, in concentrated settings, prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes and prevention programmes targeting people who inject drugs and sex workers had lower incremental cost-effectiveness ratios than programmes aimed at the general population. The few studies evaluating programmes targeting men who have sex with men indicate moderate cost-effectiveness. Collation of prevention programme spending data from 12 countries in the region (none of which had generalized epidemics) indicated that resources for the general population/non-targeted was greater than 30% for eight countries and greater than 50% for five countries.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a misalignment between national spending on HIV/AIDS responses and the most affected populations across the region. In concentrated epidemics, scarce funding should be directed more towards most-at-risk populations. Reaching consensus on general principles of cost-effectiveness of programmes by epidemic settings is difficult due to inconsistent evaluation approaches. Adopting a standard costing, impact evaluation, benefits calculation, analysis and reporting framework would enable cross comparisons and improve HIV resource prioritization and allocation.

An HIV Vaccine for South-East Asia-Opportunities and Challenges

Recent advances in HIV vaccine development along with a better understanding of the immune correlates of risk have emerged from the RV144 efficacy trial conducted in Thailand. Epidemiological data suggest that CRF01_AE is still predominant in South-East Asia and is spreading in China with a growing number of circulating recombinant forms due to increasing human contact, particularly in large urban centers, tourist locations and in sites of common infrastructure. A vaccine countering CRF01_AE is a priority for the region. An Asia HIV vaccine against expanding B/E or BCE recombinant forms should be actively pursued. A major challenge that remains is the conduct of efficacy trials in heterosexual populations in this region. Men who have sex with men represent the main target population for future efficacy trials in Asia. Coupling HIV vaccines with other prevention modalities in efficacy trials might also be envisaged. These new avenues will only be made possible through the conduct of large-scale efficacy trials, interdisciplinary teams, international collaborations, and strong political and community commitments.

Impact of high-risk sex and focused interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics: a systematic review of mathematical models

Background

The core-group theory of sexually transmitted infections suggests that targeting prevention to high-risk groups (HRG) could be very effective. We aimed to quantify the contribution of heterosexual HRGs and the potential impact of focused interventions to HIV transmission in the wider community.

Methods

We systematically identified studies published between 1980 and 2011. Studies were included if they used dynamical models of heterosexual HIV transmission, incorporated behavioural heterogeneity in risk, and provided at least one of the following primary estimates in the wider community (a) the population attributable fraction (PAF) of HIV infections due to HRGs, or (b) the number per capita or fraction of HIV infections averted, or change in HIV prevalence/incidence due to focused interventions.

Findings

Of 267 selected articles, 22 were included. Four studies measured the PAF, and 20 studies measured intervention impact across 265 scenarios. In low-prevalence epidemics (≤5% HIV prevalence), the estimated impact of sex-worker interventions in the absence of risk compensation included: 6–100% infections averted; 0.9–6.2 HIV infections averted per 100,000 adults; 11–94% and 4–47% relative reduction in prevalence and incidence respectively. In high-prevalence epidemics (>5% HIV prevalence), sex-worker interventions were estimated to avert 6.8–40% of HIV infections and up to 564 HIV infections per 100,000 adults, and reduce HIV prevalence and incidence by 13–27% and 2–14% respectively. In both types of epidemics, greater heterogeneity in HIV risk was associated with a larger impact on the fraction of HIV infections averted and relative reduction in HIV incidence.

Conclusion

Focused interventions, as estimated by mathematical models, have the potential to reduce HIV transmission in the wider community across low- and high-prevalence regions. However, considerable variability exists in estimated impact, suggesting that a targeted approach to HIV prevention should be tailored to local epidemiological context.

Immunogenicity of a recombinant measles-HIV-1 clade B candidate vaccine

Live attenuated measles virus is one of the most efficient and safest vaccines available, making it an attractive candidate vector for a HIV/AIDS vaccine aimed at eliciting cell-mediated immune responses (CMI). Here we have characterized the potency of CMI responses generated in mice and non-human primates after intramuscular immunisation with a candidate recombinant measles vaccine carrying an HIV-1 insert encoding Clade B Gag, RT and Nef (MV1-F4). Eight Mauritian derived, MHC-typed cynomolgus macaques were immunised with 10⁵ TCID₅₀ of MV1-F4, four of which were boosted 28 days later with the same vaccine. F4 and measles virus (MV)-specific cytokine producing T cell responses were detected in 6 and 7 out of 8 vaccinees, respectively. Vaccinees with either M6 or recombinant MHC haplotypes demonstrated the strongest cytokine responses to F4 peptides. Polyfunctional analysis revealed a pattern of TNFα and IL-2 responses by CD4+ T cells and TNFα and IFNγ responses by CD8+ T cells to F4 peptides. HIV-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells expressing cytokines waned in peripheral blood lymphocytes by day 84, but CD8+ T cell responses to F4 peptides could still be detected in lymphoid tissues more than 3 months after vaccination. Anti-F4 and anti-MV antibody responses were detected in 6 and 8 out of 8 vaccinees, respectively. Titres of anti-F4 and MV antibodies were boosted in vaccinees that received a second immunisation. MV1-F4 carrying HIV-1 Clade B inserts induces robust boostable immunity in non-human primates. These results support further exploration of the MV1-F4 vector modality in vaccination strategies that may limit HIV-1 infectivity.