Assessing optimal use of the standard dose adjuvanted trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine in the elderly

Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation

BACKGROUND

Respiratory pathogens inflict a substantial burden on public health and the economy. Although the severity of symptoms caused by these pathogens can vary from asymptomatic to fatal, the factors that determine symptom severity are not fully understood. Correlations in symptoms between infector-infectee pairs, for which evidence is accumulating, can generate large-scale clusters of severe infections that could be devastating to those most at risk, whilst also conceivably leading to chains of mild or asymptomatic infections that generate widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health. Although this effect could be harnessed to amplify the impact of interventions that reduce symptom severity, the mechanistic representation of symptom propagation within mathematical and health economic modelling of respiratory diseases is understudied.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We propose a novel framework for incorporating different levels of symptom propagation into models of infectious disease transmission via a single parameter, α. Varying α tunes the model from having no symptom propagation (α = 0, as typically assumed) to one where symptoms always propagate (α = 1). For parameters corresponding to three respiratory pathogens-seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2-we explored how symptom propagation impacted the relative epidemiological and health-economic performance of three interventions, conceptualised as vaccines with different actions: symptom-attenuating (labelled SA), infection-blocking (IB) and infection-blocking admitting only mild breakthrough infections (IB_MB). In the absence of interventions, with fixed underlying epidemiological parameters, stronger symptom propagation increased the proportion of cases that were severe. For SA and IB_MB, interventions were more effective at reducing prevalence (all infections and severe cases) for higher strengths of symptom propagation. For IB, symptom propagation had no impact on effectiveness, and for seasonal influenza this intervention type was more effective than SA at reducing severe infections for all strengths of symptom propagation. For pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2, at low intervention uptake, SA was more effective than IB for all levels of symptom propagation; for high uptake, SA only became more effective under strong symptom propagation. Health economic assessments found that, for SA-type interventions, the amount one could spend on control whilst maintaining a cost-effective intervention (termed threshold unit intervention cost) was very sensitive to the strength of symptom propagation.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the preferred intervention type depended on the combination of the strength of symptom propagation and uptake. Given the importance of determining robust public health responses, we highlight the need to gather further data on symptom propagation, with our modelling framework acting as a template for future analysis.

Real-World Evidence in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines in Adults ≥ 65 Years of Age: Literature Review and Expert Opinion

Influenza vaccination can benefit most populations, including adults ≥ 65 years of age, who are at greater risk of influenza-related complications. In many countries, enhanced vaccines, such as adjuvanted, high-dose, and recombinant trivalent/quadrivalent influenza vaccines (aTIV/aQIV, HD-TIV/HD-QIV, and QIVr, respectively), are recommended in older populations to provide higher immunogenicity and increased relative vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (rVE) than standard-dose vaccines. This review explores how efficacy and effectiveness data from randomized controlled trials and real-world evidence (RWE) are used in economic evaluations. Findings from published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) on enhanced influenza vaccines for older adults are summarized, and the assumptions and approaches used in these CEA are assessed alongside discussion of the importance of RWE in CEA. Results from many CEA showed that adjuvanted and high-dose enhanced vaccines were cost-effective compared with standard vaccines, and that differences in rVE estimates and acquisition price may drive differences in cost-effectiveness estimates between enhanced vaccines. Overall, RWE and CEA provide clinical and economic rationale for enhanced vaccine use in people ≥ 65 years of age, an at-risk population with substantial burden of disease. Countries that consider RWE when making vaccine recommendations have preferentially recommended aTIV/aQIV, as well as HD-TIV/HD-QIV and QIVr, to protect older individuals.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Use of Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults in Ireland

BACKGROUND

Enhanced vaccines (e.g., containing adjuvants) have shown increased immunogenicity and effectiveness in older adults, who often respond sub-optimally to conventional influenza vaccines. In this study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an inactivated, seasonal, MF59-adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine (aQIV) for use in adults ≥ 65 years in Ireland.

METHODS

A published dynamic influenza model incorporating social contact, population immunity, and epidemiological data was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of aQIV in adults ≥ 65 years of age compared with a non-adjuvanted QIV. Sensitivity analysis was performed for influenza incidence, relative vaccine effectiveness, excess mortality, and the impact on bed occupancy from co-circulating influenza and COVID-19.

RESULTS

The use of aQIV resulted in discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of EUR 2420/quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and EUR 12,970/QALY from societal and payer perspectives, respectively, both of which are below the cost-effectiveness threshold of EUR 45,000/QALY. Sensitivity analysis showed that aQIV was effective in most scenarios, except when relative vaccine effectiveness compared to QIV was below 3%, and resulted in a modest reduction in excess bed occupancy.

CONCLUSION

The use of aQIV for adults ≥ 65 years old in Ireland was shown to be highly cost-effective from both payer and societal perspectives.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination of Older Adults with an MF59-Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Compared to Other Available Quadrivalent Vaccines in Germany

Enhanced quadrivalent influenza vaccines that include an adjuvant (aQIV) or a high dose of antigen (QIV-HD), which stimulate a stronger immune response in older adults than the standard vaccine (QIVe), are now approved. The objective of this research is to compare available vaccines and determine the cost-effectiveness of immunizing persons aged 65 years and above with aQIV compared to QIVe and QIV-HD in Germany. A compartmental transmission model calibrated to outpatient visits for influenza in Germany was used to predict the number of medically attended infections using the three vaccines. The rates of hospitalizations, deaths, and other economic consequences were estimated with a decision tree using German data where available. Based on meta-analysis, the rVE of −2.5% to 8.9% for aQIV versus QIV-HD, the vaccines are similar clinically, but aQIV is cost saving compared to QIV-HD (unit cost of EUR 40.55). All results were most sensitive to changes in vaccine effectiveness. aQIV may be cost-effective compared to QIVe depending on the willingness to pay for additional benefits in Germany. As aQIV and QIV-HD are similar in terms of effectiveness, aQIV is cost saving compared to QIV-HD at current unit prices.

Systematic Review on the Cost-Effectiveness of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

Older adults are at high risk of influenza-related complications or hospitalization. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of all influenza vaccine options for older adults.

METHODS

This systematic review identified economic evaluation studies assessing the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccines in adults ≥65 years of age from 5 literature databases. Two reviewers independently selected, extracted, and appraised relevant studies using the JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Economic Evaluations and Heyland's generalizability checklist. Costs were converted to 2019 Canadian dollars and adjusted for inflation and purchasing power parity.

RESULTS

A total of 27 studies were included. There were 18 comparisons of quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV) versus trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV): 5 showed QIV dominated TIV (ie, lower costs and higher health benefit), and 13 showed the results depended on willingness to pay (WTP). There were 9 comparisons of high-dose TIV (TIV-HD) versus TIV: 5 showed TIV-HD dominated TIV, and 4 showed the results depended on WTP. There were 8 comparisons of adjuvanted TIV (TIV-ADJ) versus TIV: 4 showed TIV-ADJ dominated TIV, and 4 showed the results depended on WTP. There were few pairwise comparisons among QIV, TIV-HD, and TIV-ADJ.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence suggests QIV, TIV-HD, and TIV-ADJ are cost-effective against TIV for a WTP threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Future studies should include new and existing vaccine options for broad age ranges and use more robust methodologies-such as real-world evaluations or modeling studies accounting for methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty.

An Economic Comparison of Influenza Vaccines Recommended for Use in Eligible Adults under 65 Years in the United Kingdom

Background: In the United Kingdom (UK), a cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVc) and a recombinant vaccine (QIVr) are recommended for eligible adults under 65 years. The objective of this analysis was to determine the potential cost-effectiveness of QIVc compared to QIVr for this age group using a range of assumptions about relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE). Methods: A dynamic transmission model, calibrated to match infection data from the UK, was used to estimate the clinical and economic impact of vaccination across 10 influenza seasons. The list price was £12.50 for QIVc and £22.00 for QIVr. The base case effectiveness of QIVc was 63.9%. As there are no data comparing the vaccines in the 18 to 64-year-old age group, rVE was varied. Results: For the base case, the rVE of QIVr compared with QIVc must be at least 25% in order for the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained to be £20,000 or lower. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the rVE required for QIVr to be cost-effective was most dependent on the absolute effectiveness of QIVc. Conclusion: At list prices, our analysis predicts that the rVE for QIVr must be at least 25% compared to QIVc in order to be considered cost-effective.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for elderly people

For elderly people who have low incidence of influenza, calculation of credible vaccine effectiveness (VE) sometimes becomes difficult. Currently, VE for elderly people is insufficient to ascertain the precise efficacy specifically. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination of elderly people is discussed widely in terms of topics and areas. This report describes research results demonstrating influenza vaccination effectiveness among elderly people based on recent findings. Newly available influenza vaccination for elderly people appears to be cost-effective compared with that of trivalent inactiveted influenza vaccine. Overall, for all influenza virus types, it remains unclear whether influenza vaccination shows high VE. A decreasing effect of repeated vaccination was confirmed partially by test negative design and a serological study of cohorts. However, some studies have found no such decreasing effect. Measurement of VE and subsequent analysis of the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for elderly people requires long-term monitoring using serological studies and test negative design.

The cost-effectiveness of an adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom (UK), both the MF59-adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine (aQIV) and the high-dose QIV (QIV-HD) are preferred for persons aged 65 years and older but only aQIV is reimbursed by the National Health Service (NHS). The objective was to determine the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccinating adults aged 65 years and above with aQIV compared with QIV-HD in the UK. A dynamic transmission model, calibrated to match infection data from the UK, was used to estimate the impact of vaccination in 10 influenza seasons. Vaccine effectiveness was based on a meta-analysis that concluded the vaccines were not significantly different. Vaccine coverage, physician visits, hospitalizations, deaths, utility losses and NHS costs were estimated using published UK sources. The list price of aQIV was £11.88 while a range of prices were tested for QIV-HD. The price of the trivalent high-dose vaccine (TIV-HD) is £20.00 but a list price for QIV-HD is not yet available. The projected differences between the vaccines in terms of clinical cases and influenza treatment costs are minimal. Our analysis demonstrates that in order to be cost-effective, the price of QIV-HD must be similar to that of aQIV and may range from £7.57 to £12.94 depending on the relative effectiveness of the vaccines. The results of the analysis were most sensitive to variation in vaccine effectiveness and the rate of hospitalization due to influenza. Given the evidence, aQIV is cost-saving unless QIV-HD is priced lower than the existing list price of TIV-HD.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Expanding Vaccination with a Cell-Based Influenza Vaccine to Low Risk Adults Aged 50 to 64 Years in the United Kingdom

Background: In response to COVID-19, the UK National Health Service (NHS) extended influenza vaccination in 50- to 64-year-olds from at-risk only to all in this age group for the 2020/21 season. The objective of this research is to determine the cost-effectiveness of continuing to vaccinate all with a quadrivalent cell-based vaccine (QIVc) compared to returning to an at-risk only policy after the pandemic resolves. Methods: A dynamic transmission model, calibrated to match infection data from the UK, was used to estimate the clinical and economic impact of vaccination across 10 influenza seasons. The base case effectiveness of QIVc was 63.9% and the list price was GBP 9.94. Results: Vaccinating 50% of all 50- to 64-year-olds with QIVc reduced the average annual number of clinical infections (−682,000), hospitalizations (−5800) and deaths (−740) in the UK. The base case incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained (ICER) of all compared to at-risk only was GBP6000 (NHS perspective). When the cost of lost productivity was considered, vaccinating all 50- to 64-year-olds with QIVc became cost-saving. Conclusion: Vaccinating all 50- to 64-year-olds with QIVc is likely to be cost-effective. The NHS should consider continuing this policy in future seasons.

Cost-effectiveness of high dose versus adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccines in England and Wales

AIMS

High dose trivalent influenza vaccine (HD TIV) and adjuvant TIV (aTIV) have been developed specifically for adults aged 65 and older (65+) who are at high risk of life-threatening complications. However, there is a scarcity of evidence comparing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of HD TIV and aTIV. The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HD TIV versus aTIV in the England and Wales 65+ population.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision tree with two influenza related outcomes: Laboratory confirmed cases that could result in GP consultation, and hospitalizations that may result in premature mortality. Due to a lack of comparative evidence, the effectiveness of HD TIV versus aTIV was calculated indirectly, based on relative effectiveness estimates for each vaccine versus a common comparator, standard dose (SD) TIV. The primary analysis included hospitalizations explicitly due to influenza/pneumonia. Cost-effectiveness was established for three scenarios applying differing relative effectiveness estimates for aTIV versus SD TIV. Uncertainty was analysed in one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses. A secondary analysis included hospitalizations due to any respiratory illness.

RESULTS

The minimum population impact of vaccination with HD TIV rather than aTIV was 13,092 fewer influenza cases, 1,109 fewer influenza related deaths, 4,673 fewer hospitalizations, and 3,245 fewer GP appointments. HD TIV was cost-effective versus aTIV for all three effectiveness scenarios, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) equal to £1,932, £4,181, and £8,767 per quality adjusted life year. Results were consistent across the secondary analysis and deterministic sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATIONS

The analysis was limited by a lack of robust and consistent effectiveness data for aTIV.

CONCLUSION

HD TIV is cost-effective versus aTIV in people aged 65+ in England and Wales. Use of HD TIV over aTIV could increase clinical benefits and reduce the public health and economic burden of influenza.

Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation

For infectious disease prevention, policy-makers are typically required to base policy decisions in light of operational and monetary restrictions, prohibiting implementation of all candidate interventions. To inform the evidence-base underpinning policy decision making, mathematical and health economic modelling can be a valuable constituent.

Applied to England, this study aims to identify the optimal target age groups when extending a seasonal influenza vaccination programme of at-risk individuals to those individuals at low risk of developing complications following infection. To perform this analysis, we utilise an age- and strain-structured transmission model that includes immunity propagation mechanisms which link prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Making use of surveillance data from the past decade in conjunction with our dynamic model, we simulate transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in England from 2012 to 2018. We infer that modified susceptibility due to natural infection in the previous influenza season is the only immunity propagation mechanism to deliver a non-negligible impact on the transmission dynamics. Further, we discerned case ascertainment to be higher for young infants compared to adults under 65 years old, and uncovered a decrease in case ascertainment as age increased from 65 to 85 years of age.

Our health economic appraisal sweeps vaccination age space to determine threshold vaccine dose prices achieving cost-effectiveness under differing paired strategies. In particular, we model offering vaccination to all those low-risk individuals younger than a given age (but no younger than two years old) and all low-risk individuals older than a given age, while maintaining vaccination of at-risk individuals of any age. All posited strategies were deemed cost-effective. In general, the addition of low-risk vaccination programmes whose coverage encompassed children and young adults (aged 20 and below) were highly cost-effective. The inclusion of elder age-groups to the low-risk programme typically lessened the cost-effectiveness. Notably, elderly-centric programmes vaccinating from 65-75 years and above had the least permitted expense per vaccine.

Vaccination is an established method to provide protection against seasonal influenza and its complications. Yet, a need to administer an updated vaccine on an annual basis presents significant operational challenges and sizeable costs. Consequently, policy makers typically have to decide how to deploy a finite amount of resource in a cost-effective manner. A combination of mathematical and health economic modelling can be used to address such a question. Here, we developed an age- and strain-structured mathematical model for seasonal influenza transmission dynamics that incorporates mechanisms for immunity propagation, which we used to reconstruct transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in England from 2012 to 2018.

We then performed a health economic evaluation assessing the cost-effectiveness of extending a seasonal influenza vaccination programme of at-risk individuals to also include, for targeted age groups, those individuals at low risk of developing complications following infection. The findings suggest the inclusion of low-risk vaccination programmes whose coverage encompassed children and young adults (aged 20 and below) to be highly cost-effective. In contrast, the inclusion of elder age-groups to the low-risk programme typically lessened the cost-effectiveness.

Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

Seasonal influenza poses serious problems for global public health, being a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. In England, there has been a long-standing national vaccination programme, with vaccination of at-risk groups and children offering partial protection against infection. Transmission models have been a fundamental component of analysis, informing the efficient use of limited resources. However, these models generally treat each season and each strain circulating within that season in isolation. Here, we amalgamate multiple data sources to calibrate a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered type transmission model for seasonal influenza, incorporating the four main strains and mechanisms linking prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Data pertaining to nine influenza seasons, starting with the 2009/10 season, informed our estimates for epidemiological processes, virological sample positivity, vaccine uptake and efficacy attributes, and general practitioner influenza-like-illness consultations as reported by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC). We performed parameter inference via approximate Bayesian computation to assess strain transmissibility, dependence of present season influenza immunity on prior protection, and variability in the influenza case ascertainment across seasons. This produced reasonable agreement between model and data on the annual strain composition. Parameter fits indicated that the propagation of immunity from one season to the next is weaker if vaccine derived, compared to natural immunity from infection. Projecting the dynamics forward in time suggests that while historic immunity plays an important role in determining annual strain composition, the variability in vaccine efficacy hampers our ability to make long-term predictions.