Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean

Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations

Global warming can profoundly influence the mean climate over the Arabian Peninsula, which may significantly influence both natural and human systems. The present study aims to investigate the changes in the precipitation regime in response to climate change over the Arabian Peninsula, with special emphasis on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This work is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The changes are analyzed in three phases such as 2021-2050 (near future), 2051-2080 (mid future) and 2080-2100 (far future), with the period of 1985-2014 as the baseline. This study represents the first attempt to utilize data from NEX-GDDP models to project the regional patterns of precipitation regime across the Arabian Peninsula. Results suggest that the annual precipitation is expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%, particularly intense from the mid-future onwards in all scenarios. Specifically, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes such as intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, and precipitation exceeding 10 mm days are increasing; in contrast, the consecutive dry days may decrease towards the end of the century. The results show that the changes in extreme precipitation under a warming scenario relative to the historical period indicate progressive wetting across UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events, particularly under the high emission scenarios. A high-resolution dataset is essential for a better understanding of changes in precipitation patterns, especially in regions where more detailed information is needed on a local scale to achieve water, food security, and environmental sustainability to formulate effective adaptation strategies for mitigating the potential risks and consequences associated with variations in wet and dry conditions.

Genomic regions of durum wheat involved in water productivity

Durum wheat is a staple food in the Mediterranean Basin, mostly cultivated under rainfed conditions. As such, the crop is often exposed to moisture stress. Therefore, the identification of genetic factors controlling the capacity of genotypes to convert moisture into grain yield (i.e., water productivity) is quintessential to stabilize production despite climatic variations. A global panel of 384 accessions was tested across 18 Mediterranean environments (in Morocco, Lebanon, and Jordan) representing a vast range of moisture levels. The accessions were assigned to water responsiveness classes, with genotypes 'Responsive to Low Moisture' reaching an average +1.5 kg ha-1 mm-1 yield advantage. Genome wide association studies revealed that six loci explained most of this variation. A second validation panel tested under moisture stress confirmed that carrying the positive allele at three loci on chromosomes 1B, 2A, and 7B generated an average water productivity gain of +2.2 kg ha-1 mm-1. These three loci were tagged by kompetitive allele specific PCR (KASP) markers, and these were used to screen a third independent validation panel composed of elites tested across moisture stressed sites. The three KASP combined predicted up to 10% of the variation for grain yield at 60% accuracy. These loci are now ready for molecular pyramiding and transfer across cultivars to improve the moisture conversion of durum wheat.

The Role of Gorse (Ulex parviflorus Pourr. Scrubs) in a Mediterranean Shrubland Undergoing Climate Change: Approach by Hyperspectral Measurements

The goal of this study was to observe the neighbor effect of Gorse, a plant of the Fabaceae family, on three typical species of Mediterranean shrubland: kermes oak, white Cistus and rosemary. For this purpose, a hyperspectral analysis and the application of vegetation indices (VIs) were carried out. We provide the spectral signature of Gorse, which differs mainly from that of its companion species in the band between 700 and 1350 nm. This supposed Gorse effect was tested in natural conditions and in conditions of forced drought to simulate the effects of the climate change predicted for the Mediterranean Basin. Field spectrometry demonstrated the existence of such interactions between the four species. In control stands, the presence of Gorse significantly modifies the spectral responses of kermes, white Cistus and rosemary, mainly in the near-infrared region (700-1350 nm). Both tri- and tetra-specific plant assemblages also exhibited spectral changes, suggesting an indirect effect of Gorse. Under drought conditions, one-way ANOVA followed by Fisher's LSD test led us to identify the features involved in plants' coexistence with Gorse. The Cistus albidus reflectance spectrum was clearly increased in the presence of Gorse in rain-exclusion conditions. The application of several VIs allowed us to extract new information on the variation of spectral signatures. Unexpectedly, nitrogen supply by Gorse was not shown, except for Cistus, as shown by the VI NDVI (N) analysis. However, this study proved that Gorse can modify the behavior of its companion species in controls, but also in drought conditions, by increasing their photosynthesis activity (NIRvP) and water content (ratio R975/R900). Gorse therefore appears as a key species in the ecosystem of the Mediterranean shrubland, but its high vulnerability to drought leaves a vacant ecological niche in plant communities. While the spectral reflectance increases linearly with the specific richness in the lack of any disturbance, by contrast, climate aridification imposes a double reciprocal profile. This clearly means that multispecific plant communities cope better with climate change. Nevertheless, knowledge of the underlying mechanisms requires further structural, chemical, and biochemical investigation.

LCA of Barley Production: A Case Study from Cyprus

Greenhouse gas emissions (i.e., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) produced by agriculture contribute to global warming and climate change. Various practices followed by farmers in different environmental conditions contribute to the increase in the phenomena, and there is a need for immediate measures. The current study examines the environmental impact of barley production under rain-fed conditions in Cyprus. For this, four different nutrient management scenarios were investigated in order to evaluate the environmental performance of crop production, namely: (1) Nitrogen (20%), Phosphorous (20%), Potassium (10%); (2) Nitrogen (20%), Phosphorous (20%), Potassium (10%) and manure; (3) Nitrogen (25%), Phosphorous (10%), Potassium (0%); and (4) Nitrogen (25%), Phosphorous (10%), Potassium (0%) and manure. Data were collected from two different areas of Cyprus (Nicosia and Larnaca) through on-site visits and questionnaires. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was used as a method to quantify environmental impacts which were categorized into six impact categories: (i) acidification potential (AP), (ii) eutrophication potential (EP), (iii) global warming potential (GWP), (iv) ozone depletion potential (ODP), (v) photochemical, ozone creation potential (POCP), and (vi) terrestrial ecotoxicity (TAETP). LCA was used with system boundaries from field to harvest and a functional unit (FU) of one bale of hay. Research results showed that the addition of manure increased values in all impact categories. Comparing scenarios without manure (1 and 3) and with manure (2 and 4), the main process which contributed to GWP was field preparation, which resulted in 3 t CO₂-Eq∙FU^-1 and 46.96 t CO₂-Eq∙FU^-1, respectively. Furthermore, the highest contribution of sub-processes to GWP (kg CO₂-Eq∙FU^-1) was machinery maintenance (scenarios 2 and 4). The potential to reduce environmental impacts from barley and moreover, to mitigate the footprint of the agriculture sector in Cyprus is proposed by changing existing practices such as decreasing fuel consumption by agricultural machinery, and monitoring fertilizing and seeding. Conclusively, the carbon footprint of barley can be decreased through the improvement of nutrient management and cropping practices.

Assessing Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management Programmes: Stakeholder Participation Process and Policy Implications for Transport, Energy and Tourism Sectors on the Island of Sicily

Climate change is a critical sustainability challenge for islands and their main economic sectors. Rising sea levels, extreme temperatures, and drier conditions are the impacts with the most significant potential to amplify the economic damage on islands. However, their isolation and natural conditions bring about some leeway to respond to climate impacts on their terms. This paper aims to provide a local-level analysis and ranking of alternative adaptation pathways in an island context through the stakeholders’ lens. This study reviews the latest advancements in adaptation science and proposes a catalogue of adaptation and risk management options that feed a participatory assessment and ranking by local stakeholders. The research was conducted on the island of Sicily (Italy) and saw the participation of high-level experts and tourism, energy, and maritime transport representatives. It employs a sequential process of four ordered steps oriented towards adaptation planning and stakeholders’ engagement. The process reveals breaches between what stakeholders’ would prioritise when designing policy pathways and their opinion about the most beneficial and balanced adaptation programmes across the sustainability criteria. Results indicate that, according to stakeholders, the priorities are to prepare the energy, tourism, and maritime transport sectors to confront future climate-related events more efficiently. Other transformational actions to ensure long-term social-ecological resilience, which requires significant structural changes and substantial investments, are not at the core of the public needs.

Quantifying Evapotranspiration and Drainage Losses in a Semi-Arid Nectarine (Prunus persica var. nucipersica) Field with a Dynamic Crop Coefficient (Kc) Derived from Leaf Area Index Measurements

Quantifying evapotranspiration and drainage losses is essential for improving irrigation efficiency. The FAO-56 is the most popular method for computing crop evapotranspiration. There is, however, a need for locally derived crop coefficients (Kc) with a high temporal resolution to reduce errors in the water balance. The aim of this paper is to introduce a dynamic Kc approach, based on Leaf Area Index (LAI) observations, for improving water balance computations. Soil moisture and meteorological data were collected in a terraced nectarine (Prunus persica var. nucipersica) orchard in Cyprus, from 22 March 2019 to 18 November 2021. The Kc was derived as a function of the canopy cover fraction (c), from biweekly in situ LAI measurements. The use of a dynamic Kc resulted in Kc estimates with a bias of 17 mm and a mean absolute error of 0.8 mm. Evapotranspiration (ET) ranged from 41% of the rainfall (P) and irrigation (I) in the wet year (2019) to 57% of P + I in the dry year (2021). Drainage losses from irrigation (DR_I) were 44% of the total irrigation. The irrigation efficiency in the nectarine field could be improved by reducing irrigation amounts and increasing the irrigation frequency. Future studies should focus on improving the dynamic Kc approach by linking LAI field observations with remote sensing observations and by adding ground cover observations.

Unravelling Precipitation Trends in Greece since 1950s Using ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data

Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters, as it is determined by many physical processes. The spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation have been significantly affected by climate change during the past decades. Analysis of precipitation trends is challenging, especially in regions such as Greece, which is characterized by complex topography and includes several ungauged areas. With this study, we aim to shed new light on the climatic characteristics and inter-annual trends of precipitation over Greece. For this purpose, we used ERA5 monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 to estimate annual Theil–Sen trends and Mann–Kendall significance over Greece and surrounding areas. Additionally, in order to analyze and model the nonlinear relationships of monthly precipitation time series, we used generalized additive models (GAMs). The results indicated significant declining inter-annual trends of areal precipitation over the study area. Declining trends were more pronounced in winter over western and eastern Greece, but trends in spring, summer and autumn were mostly not significant. GAMs showcased that the trends were generally characterized by nonlinearity and precipitation over the study area presented high inter-decadal variability. Combining the results, we concluded that precipitation did not linearly change during the past 7 decades, but it first increased from the 1950s to the late 1960s, consequently decreased until the early 1990s and, afterwards, presented an increase until 2020 with a smaller rate than the 1950–1960s.