Invisible water security: Moisture recycling and water resilience

How much rainwater contributes to a spring discharge in the Guarani Aquifer System: insights from stable isotopes and a mass balance model

Outcrops play an important role in groundwater recharge. Understanding groundwater origins, dynamics and its correlation with different water sources is essential for effective water resources management and planning in terms of quantity and quality. In the case of the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop areas are particularly vulnerable to groundwater pollution due to direct recharge processes. This study focuses on the Alto Jacaré-Pepira sub-basin, a watershed near Brotas, a city in the central region of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, where groundwater is vital for supporting tourism, agriculture, urban water supply, creeks, river and wetlands. The area has a humid tropical climate with periods of both intense rainfall and drought, and the rivers remain perennial throughout the year. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the interconnections between a spring and its potential sources of contribution, namely rain and groundwater, in order to elucidate the relationships between the different water sources. To achieve this, on-site monitoring of groundwater depth, rainfall amount, and stable isotope ratios (deuterium (2H) and oxygen-18 (18O)) from rain, spring discharge, and a monitoring well was carried out from 2013 to 2021. The results indicate that the mean and standard deviations for δ18O in rainwater exhibit higher variability, resulting in -4.49 ± 3.18 ‰ VSMOW, while δ18O values from the well show minor variations, similar to those of the spring, recording -7.25 ± 0.32 ‰ and -6.94 ± 0.28 ‰ VSMOW, respectively. The mixing model's outcomes reveal seasonal variations in water sources contribution and indicate that groundwater accounts for approximately 80 % of spring discharge throughout the year. Incorporating stable isotopes into hydrological monitoring provides valuable data for complementing watershed analysis. The values obtained support the significance of the aquifer as a primary source, thereby offering critical insights into stream dynamics of the region.

The Andes-Amazon-Atlantic pathway: A foundational hydroclimate system for social-ecological system sustainability

The Amazon River Basin's extraordinary social-ecological system is sustained by various water phases, fluxes, and stores that are interconnected across the tropical Andes mountains, Amazon lowlands, and Atlantic Ocean. This "Andes-Amazon-Atlantic" (AAA) pathway is a complex hydroclimatic system linked by the regional water cycle through atmospheric circulation and continental hydrology. Here, we aim to articulate the AAA hydroclimate pathway as a foundational system for research, management, conservation, and governance of aquatic systems of the Amazon Basin. We identify and describe the AAA pathway as an interdependent, multidirectional, and multiscale hydroclimate system. We then present an assessment of recent (1981 to 2020) changes in the AAA pathway, primarily reflecting an acceleration in the rates of hydrologic fluxes (i.e., water cycle intensification). We discuss how the changing AAA pathway orchestrates and impacts social-ecological systems. We conclude with four recommendations for the sustainability of the AAA pathway in ongoing research, management, conservation, and governance.

Even cooler insights: On the power of forests to (water the Earth and) cool the planet

Scientific innovation is overturning conventional paradigms of forest, water, and energy cycle interactions. This has implications for our understanding of the principal causal pathways by which tree, forest, and vegetation cover (TFVC) influence local and global warming/cooling. Many identify surface albedo and carbon sequestration as the principal causal pathways by which TFVC affects global warming/cooling. Moving toward the outer latitudes, in particular, where snow cover is more important, surface albedo effects are perceived to overpower carbon sequestration. By raising surface albedo, deforestation is thus predicted to lead to surface cooling, while increasing forest cover is assumed to result in warming. Observational data, however, generally support the opposite conclusion, suggesting surface albedo is poorly understood. Most accept that surface temperatures are influenced by the interplay of surface albedo, incoming shortwave (SW) radiation, and the partitioning of the remaining, post-albedo, SW radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the extent to which the avoidance of sensible heat formation is first and foremost mediated by the presence (absence) of water and TFVC is not well understood. TFVC both mediates the availability of water on the land surface and drives the potential for latent heat production (evapotranspiration, ET). While latent heat is more directly linked to local than global cooling/warming, it is driven by photosynthesis and carbon sequestration and powers additional cloud formation and top-of-cloud reflectivity, both of which drive global cooling. TFVC loss reduces water storage, precipitation recycling, and downwind rainfall potential, thus driving the reduction of both ET (latent heat) and cloud formation. By reducing latent heat, cloud formation, and precipitation, deforestation thus powers warming (sensible heat formation), which further diminishes TFVC growth (carbon sequestration). Large-scale tree and forest restoration could, therefore, contribute significantly to both global and surface temperature cooling through the principal causal pathways of carbon sequestration and cloud formation.

Contribution of Tibetan Plateau ecosystems to local and remote precipitation through moisture recycling

The ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide multiple important ecosystem services that benefit both local populations and those beyond, such as through climate regulation services on precipitation for East Asia and China. However, the precipitation regulation service of the TP ecosystems for supplying moisture and maintaining precipitation is yet to be evaluated. In this study, we used the moisture recycling framework and a moisture tracking model to quantify the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems for their contribution to precipitation. We found TP ecosystems contributed substantially to local and downwind precipitation, with a contribution of 221 mm/year for the TP and neighboring areas through evapotranspiration (ET) (104 mm/year through transpiration), declined to <10 mm/year for eastern China and other surrounding countries. Among ecosystem types, grassland contributed most to precipitation, followed by barren and snow lands, forests, and shrublands. In terms of seasonality, precipitation contribution from TP ecosystems was greater in summer months than in non-summer months for western China, while the opposite was true for eastern China-although the magnitude was much smaller. Over the past two decades, the significant ET increases in TP translated to a widespread increase in precipitation contribution for TP and downwind beneficiary regions from 2000 to 2020. Our study provides a quantitative way to understand the precipitation regulation services of TP ecosystems through moisture recycling, substantiating their key role to maintain precipitation and the water cycle for downwind regions-effectively acting as an ecological safeguard that could be perceived by the public.

Hotspots for social and ecological impacts from freshwater stress and storage loss

Humans and ecosystems are deeply connected to, and through, the hydrological cycle. However, impacts of hydrological change on social and ecological systems are infrequently evaluated together at the global scale. Here, we focus on the potential for social and ecological impacts from freshwater stress and storage loss. We find basins with existing freshwater stress are drying (losing storage) disproportionately, exacerbating the challenges facing the water stressed versus non-stressed basins of the world. We map the global gradient in social-ecological vulnerability to freshwater stress and storage loss and identify hotspot basins for prioritization (n = 168). These most-vulnerable basins encompass over 1.5 billion people, 17% of global food crop production, 13% of global gross domestic product, and hundreds of significant wetlands. There are thus substantial social and ecological benefits to reducing vulnerability in hotspot basins, which can be achieved through hydro-diplomacy, social adaptive capacity building, and integrated water resources management practices.

Forests buffer against variations in precipitation

Atmospheric moisture recycling effectively increases the amount of usable water over land as the water can undergo multiple precipitation-evapotranspiration cycles. Differences in land cover and climate regulate the evapotranspiration flux. Forests can have deep roots that access groundwater facilitating transpiration throughout the dry season independent of precipitation. This stable transpiration buffers the forest against precipitation variability. However, it is not known whether the buffering effect, already modeled for tropical forests, is common to all forests globally. Here we apply a state-of-the-art Lagrangian moisture tracking model (UTrack) to study whether forest land cover in the upwind precipitationshed can lead to a reduction in monthly precipitation variability downwind. We found a significant buffering effect of forests in the precipitation variability of 10 out of 14 biomes globally. On average, if 50% of precipitation originates from forest, then we find a reduction in the coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation of 60%. We also observed that a high fraction of precipitation from non-forest land sources tends to have the opposite effect, that is, no buffering effect. The average variation of monthly precipitation was 69% higher in areas where 50% of precipitation originates from non-forest land sources in the precipitationshed. Our results emphasize the importance of land cover composition in the precipitationshed to buffer precipitation variability downwind, in particular forest cover. Understanding the influence of land cover in a precipitationshed on atmospheric moisture transport is key for evaluating an area's water-climate regulatory ecosystem services and may become increasingly important due to continued changes in land cover and climate change.

Water security and watershed management assessed through the modelling of hydrology and ecological integrity: A study in the Galicia-Costa (NW Spain)

Water management is a crucial tool for addressing the increasing uncertainties caused by climate change, biodiversity loss and the conditions of socioeconomic limits. The multiple factors affecting water resources need to be successfully managed to achieve optimal governance and thus move towards water security. This study seeks to obtain a holistic vision of the various threats that affect the ecological integrity of the basins that form the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, through the method of partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM). The data is analysed overall for the hydrological years from 2009 to 2015. The independent latent variables are "Anthropogenic" (comprising the percentage of water bodies with edges alongside artificial surfaces, the percentage connected to artificial land use patches, the edge density of artificial surfaces and population density) and "Nature" (edge density of forestry land uses, edge length of land water bodies alongside forested areas and the percentage of land occupied by the largest patch of forest). The dependent latent variables are "SWP", which represents surface water parameters (biological oxygen demand, chlorides, conductivity and dissolved iron) and "Ecological Integrity" (METI Bioindicator). The connections between latent variables are uantified through path coefficients (β). From an overall perspective, the PLS-PM results reveal that 69.0% of "SWP" is predicted by the independent variables (R² = 0.690), "Anthropogenic" contributes by increasing SWP (β = 0.471), while "Nature" decreases the concentration of SWP (β = -0.523), which indicates the polluting parameters in the water. The variables "Anthropogenic" (β = -0.351) and "SWP" (β = -0.265) lower the quality of "Ecological Integrity". This variable must be managed through soil conservation measures for the benefit of water security. This study has been able to identify and quantify the variables that increase contaminant concentration and decrease ecological integrity, providing a promising methodology that facilitates protection and correction measures to guarantee water safety.

The Assessment of Hydrological Availability and the Payment for Ecosystem Services: A Pilot Study in a Brazilian Headwater Catchment

The assessment of water availability in river basins is at the top of the water security agenda. Historically, the assessment of stream flow discharge in Brazilian watersheds was relevant for dam dimensioning, flood control projects and irrigation systems. Nowadays, it plays an important role in the creation of sustainable management plans at the catchment scale aimed to help in establishing legal policies on water resources management and water security laws, namely, those related to the payment for environmental services related to clean water production. Headwater catchments are preferential targets of these policies and laws for their water quality. The general objective of this study was to evaluate water availability in first-order sub-basins of a Brazilian headwater catchment. The specific objectives were: (1) to assess the stream flow discharge of first-order headwater sub-basins and rank them accordingly; (2) to analyze the feasibility of payment for environmental services related to water production in these sub-basins. The discharge flow measurements were conducted during five years (2012 to 2016), in headwaters in a watershed on the São Domingos River at the Turvo/Grande Watershed, represented as the 4th-largest hydrographic unit for water resources management—UGRHI-15 in São Paulo State, Brazil. A doppler velocity technology was used to remotely measure open-channel flow and to collect the data. The discharge values were obtained on periodic measurements, at the beginning of each month. The results were subject to descriptive statistics that analyzed the temporal and spatial data related to sub-basins morphometric characteristics. The discharge flows showed space–time variations in magnitude between studied headwater sub-basins on water availability, assessed based on average net discharges. The set of ecological processes supported by forests are fundamental in controlling and recharging aquifers and preserving the volume of water in headwater in each sub-basin. The upstream inflows influence downstream sub-basins. To avoid scarcity, the headwater rivers located in the upstream sub-basins must not consider basin area as a single and homogeneous unit, because that may be the source of water conflicts. Understanding this relationship in response to conservationist practices installed uphill influenced by anthropic actions is crucial for water security assessment. The headwaters should be considered a great potential for ecosystem services, with respect to the “provider-receiver” principle, in the context of payments for environmental services (PES).

Drought alters the biogeochemistry of boreal stream networks

Drought is a global phenomenon, with widespread implications for freshwater ecosystems. While droughts receive much attention at lower latitudes, their effects on northern river networks remain unstudied. We combine a reach-scale manipulation experiment, observations during the extreme 2018 drought, and historical monitoring data to examine the impact of drought in northern boreal streams. Increased water residence time during drought promoted reductions in aerobic metabolism and increased concentrations of reduced solutes in both stream and hyporheic water. Likewise, data during the 2018 drought revealed widespread hypoxic conditions and shifts towards anaerobic metabolism, especially in headwaters. Finally, long-term data confirmed that past summer droughts have led to similar metabolic alterations. Our results highlight the potential for drought to promote biogeochemical shifts that trigger poor water quality conditions in boreal streams. Given projected increases in hydrological extremes at northern latitudes, the consequences of drought for the health of running waters warrant attention.

High latitude droughts are increasing, but their effects on freshwater systems are poorly understood. Here the authors investigate Sweden’s most severe drought in the last century and show that these dry conditions induce hypoxia and elevated methane production from streams.

Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales

The planetary boundaries framework defines the "safe operating space for humanity" represented by nine global processes that can destabilize the Earth System if perturbed. The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We develop a cross-scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution). The application of the water planetary boundary at these subglobal contexts occurs via two approaches: (i) calculating fair shares, in which local water cycle modifications are compared to that context's allocation of the global safe operating space, taking into account biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical considerations; and (ii) defining a local safe operating space, in which interactions between water stores and Earth System components are used to define local boundaries required for sustaining the local water system in stable conditions, which we demonstrate with a case study of the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta wetlands in Colombia. By harmonizing these two approaches, the water planetary boundary can ensure that water cycle modifications remain within both local and global boundaries and complement existing water management and governance approaches.