Development and Validation of Prognostic Model for Patients with Acute Subdural Hematoma-Reliable Nomogram

Prognostic Factors of Mortality and Functional Outcome for Acute Subdural Hematoma: A Review Article

Acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) is the most frequent intracranial traumatic lesion requiring surgery in high-income countries. To date, uncertainty remains regarding the odds of mortality or functional outcome of patients with ASDH, regardless of whether they are operated on. This review aims to shed light on the clinical and radiologic factors associated with ASDH outcome. A scoping review was conducted on Medline database from inception to 2023. This review yielded 41 patient series. In the general population, specific clinical (admission Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS], abnormal pupil exam, time to surgery, decompressive craniectomy, raised postoperative intracranial pressure) and radiologic (ASDH thickness, midline shift, thickness/midline shift ratio, uncal herniation, and brain density difference) factors were associated with mortality (grade III). Other clinical (admission GCS, decompressive craniectomy) and radiologic (ASDH volume, thickness/midline shift ratio, uncal herniation, loss of basal cisterns, petechiae, and brain density difference) factors were associated with functional outcome (grade III). In the elderly, only postoperative GCS and midline shift on brain computed tomography were associated with mortality (grade III). Comorbidities, abnormal pupil examination, postoperative GCS, intensive care unit hospitalization, and midline shift were associated with functional outcome (grade III). Based on these factors, the SHE (Subdural Hematoma in the Elderly) and the RASH (Richmond Acute Subdural Hematoma) scores could be used in daily clinical practice. This review has underlined a few supplementary factors of prognostic interest in patients with ASDH, and highlighted two predictive scores that could be used in clinical practice to guide and assist clinicians in surgical indication.

Establishment and validation of prognosis model for patients with cerebral contusion

Background And Objective

Cerebral Contusion (CC) is one of the most serious injury types in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). In this study, the baseline data, imaging features and laboratory examinations of patients with CC were summarized and analyzed to develop and validate a prediction model of nomogram to evaluate the clinical outcomes of patients.

Methods

A total of 426 patients with cerebral contusion (CC) admitted to the People’s Hospital of Qinghai Province and Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from January 2018 to January 2021 were included in this study, We randomly divided the cohort into a training cohort (n = 284) and a validation cohort (n = 142) with a ratio of 2:1.At Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression were used for screening high-risk factors affecting patient prognosis and development of the predictive model. The identification ability and clinical application value of the prediction model were analyzed through the analysis of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Twelve independent prognostic factors, including age, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), Basal cistern status, Midline shift (MLS), Third ventricle status, intracranial pressure (ICP) and CT grade of cerebral edema,etc., were selected by Lasso regression analysis and included in the nomogram. The model showed good predictive performance, with a C index of (0.87, 95% CI, 0.026–0.952) in the training cohort and (0.93, 95% CI, 0.032–0.965) in the validation cohort. Clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) also showed that the model brought high clinical benefits to patients.

Conclusion

This study established a high accuracy of nomogram model to predict the prognosis of patients with CC, its low cost, easy to promote, is especially applicable in the acute environment, at the same time, CSF-glucose/lactate ratio(C-G/L), volume of contusion, and mean CT values of edema zone, which were included for the first time in this study, were independent predictors of poor prognosis in patients with CC. However, this model still has some limitations and deficiencies, which require large sample and multi-center prospective studies to verify and improve our results.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-021-02482-4.

A prognostic scoring system for operated acute epidural hematoma based on gray-white matter ratio

ABSTRACT

To determine the prognostic risk factors of patients with acute epidural hematoma (AEDH), a scoring system was established based on gray-white matter ratio (GWR) and internal verification was performed.All patients with AEDH who underwent surgical treatment in Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital from January 2013 to June 2019 were continuously collected. The clinical and imaging data of the patients were collected. According to Glasgow Outcome Scale at 3 months after operation, the patients were divided into poor and good prognosis groups, respectively. The GWR value of the nonhematoma side was measured at the inner capsule area. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used. Independent predictors significantly related to the prognosis of AEDH were screened out and a nomogram was established based on these factors.A total of 170 cases were included in this study, the Glasgow Coma Score (severe and moderate), cerebral hernia, midline shift, preoperative GWR, postoperative GWR, hematoma thickness/midline shift, time from coma to surgery, and decompression of bone flap were the independent risk factors for predicting the poor prognosis of AEDH. Moreover, the prediction ability of nomogram was higher than any other independent predictive factors.The nomogram model established represents the most effective factor to predict the prognosis of operated AEDH. The scoring system is characterized by high accuracy, simplicity and feasibility, with a wide range of clinical application prospects.

Densitometric analysis of brain computed tomography as a new prognostic factor in patients with acute subdural hematoma

OBJECTIVE

Acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Surgical evacuation is the mainstay of treatment in patients with altered neurological status or significant mass effect. Nevertheless, concerns regarding surgical indication still persist. Given that clinicians often make therapeutic decisions on the basis of their prognosis assessment, to accurately evaluate the prognosis is of great significance. Unfortunately, there is a lack of specific and reliable prognostic models. In addition, the interdependence of certain well-known predictive variables usually employed to guide surgical decision-making in ASDH has been proven. Because gray matter and white matter are highly susceptible to secondary insults during the early phase after TBI, the authors aimed to assess the extent of these secondary insults with a brain parenchyma densitometric quantitative CT analysis and to evaluate its prognostic capacity.

METHODS

The authors performed a retrospective analysis among their prospectively collected cohort of patients with moderate to severe TBI. Patients with surgically evacuated, isolated, unilateral ASDH admitted between 2010 and 2017 were selected. Thirty-nine patients were included. For each patient, brain parenchyma density in Hounsfield units (HUs) was measured in 10 selected slices from the supratentorial region. In each slice, different regions of interest (ROIs), including and excluding the cortical parenchyma, were defined. The injured hemisphere, the contralateral hemisphere, and the absolute differences between them were analyzed. The outcome was evaluated using the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended at 1 year after TBI.

RESULTS

Fifteen patients (38.5%) had a favorable outcome. Collected demographic, clinical, and radiographic data did not show significant differences between favorable and unfavorable outcomes. In contrast, the densitometric analysis demonstrated that greater absolute differences between both hemispheres were associated with poor outcome. These differences were detected along the supratentorial region, but were greater at the high convexity level. Moreover, these HU differences were far more marked at the cortical parenchyma. It was also detected that these differences were more prone to ischemic and/or edematous insults than to hyperemic changes. Age was significantly correlated with the side-to-side HU differences in patients with unfavorable outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The densitometric analysis is a promising prognostic tool in patients diagnosed with ASDH. The supplementary prognostic information provided by the densitometric analysis should be evaluated in future studies.

The Effect of Frailty and Patient Comorbidities on Outcomes After Acute Subdural Hemorrhage: A Preliminary Analysis

BACKGROUND

Frailty is associated with worse outcomes across a variety of neurosurgical diseases. However, its effect on acute subdural hemorrhage (aSDH) outcomes is unclear. The goal of this study is to compare 3 measures of frailty with the gold standard (i.e., initial Glasgow Coma Scale [iGCS] score) for predicting outcomes after aSDH.

METHODS

Patients who presented between January 2016 and June 2018 were retrospectively identified based on International Classification of Diseases codes for aSDH. Patients' modified Frailty Index (mFI), temporalis muscle thickness (TMT), and age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were calculated. Primary end points were death and discharge home.

RESULTS

Of 167 patients included, the mean age was 63.4 ± 1.9 years, the average CCI was 3.4 ± 0.2, mFI was 1.4 ± 0.1, TMT was 7.1 ± 0.2 mm, and iGCS score was 11.9 ± 0.3. Sixty-nine patients (41.3%) were discharged home and 32 (19.2%) died during hospitalization. In multivariate analysis, decreasing iGCS score (odds ratio [OR], 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.96; P = 0.0112) and midline shift (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.08-1.50; P = 0.0048), but not age or frailty, predicted mortality. In addition to iGCS score (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.44; P = 0.0011), lower CCI (OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.14-0.74; P = 0.0071) and larger TMT (OR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.16-5.99; P = 0.0210) independently predicted increased rates of discharge home. mFI was not independently associated with either primary end point in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

iGCS score predicts both mortality and discharge location after aSDH better than do age or frailty. However, CCI and TMT, but not mFI, are useful prognostic indicators of discharge to home after aSDH. The iGCS score should continue to be the primary prediction tool for patients with aSDH; however, frailty may be useful for resource allocation, especially when nearing discharge.