Deep Learning to Predict Traumatic Brain Injury Outcomes in the Low-Resource Setting

Partnering in Global Health: What Is a Successful Dyad? The Duke Experience

This article explores the transformative partnership between Duke Global Neurosurgery and Neurology (DGNN) and Uganda, emphasizing the power of dyads in international collaboration. It details the partnership's focus on service, research, and training, highlighting key accomplishments like the establishment of a neurosurgery residency program, expansion of services, and an epilepsy clinic. Challenges such as resource constraints and cross-cultural collaboration are addressed. Recommendations are provided for developing similar partnerships, underlining the importance of mutual respect, shared goals, and long-term commitment. The DGNN-Uganda dyad is a blueprint for leveraging collaboration to improve global neurosurgical care and reduce health care inequities.

Evaluating the Role of Data Enrichment Approaches towards Rare Event Analysis in Manufacturing

Rare events are occurrences that take place with a significantly lower frequency than more common, regular events. These events can be categorized into distinct categories, from frequently rare to extremely rare, based on factors like the distribution of data and significant differences in rarity levels. In manufacturing domains, predicting such events is particularly important, as they lead to unplanned downtime, a shortening of equipment lifespans, and high energy consumption. Usually, the rarity of events is inversely correlated with the maturity of a manufacturing industry. Typically, the rarity of events affects the multivariate data generated within a manufacturing process to be highly imbalanced, which leads to bias in predictive models. This paper evaluates the role of data enrichment techniques combined with supervised machine learning techniques for rare event detection and prediction. We use time series data augmentation and sampling to address the data scarcity, maintaining its patterns, and imputation techniques to handle null values. Evaluating 15 learning models, we find that data enrichment improves the F1 measure by up to 48% in rare event detection and prediction. Our empirical and ablation experiments provide novel insights, and we also investigate model interpretability.

The Use of Corticosteroid Randomisation after Significant Head Injury (CRASH) Prognostic Model as Mortality Predictor of Traumatic Brain Injury Patients Underwent Surgery in Low-Middle Income Countries

Background

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a disruption to normal brain functions caused by traumas such as collisions, blows, or penetrating injuries. There are factors affecting patient outcomes that also have a predictive value. Limited data from low-middle income countries showed a high number of poor outcomes in TBI patients. The corticosteroid randomisation after significant head injury (CRASH) prognostic model is a predictive model that uses such factors and is often used in developed countries. The model has an excellent discriminative ability. However, there is still a lack of studies on its use in surgical patients in low-middle income countries. This study aimed to evaluate the CRASH model's validity to predict 14-day mortality of TBI patients who underwent surgery in low-middle income countries.

Methods

This retrospective analytical observational study employed total sampling including all TBI patients who underwent surgery with general anesthesia from January to December 2022. Statistical analysis was performed by applying Mann-Whitney and Fisher exact tests, while the model's discriminative ability was determined through the area under the curve (AUC) calculations.

Results

112 TBI patients were admitted during the study period, and 74 patients were included. Independent statistical analysis showed that 14-day mortality risk, age, Glasgow Coma Scale score, TBI severity, pupillary response, and major extracranial trauma had a significant individual correlation with patients' actual mortality outcome (p < 0.05). The AUC analysis revealed an excellent mortality prediction (AUC 0.838; CI 95%).

Conclusion

The CRASH prognostic model performs well in predicting the 14-day mortality of TBI patients who underwent surgery in low-middle income countries.

Enhancing hospital course and outcome prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury: A machine learning study

PURPOSE

We aimed to use machine learning (ML) algorithms with clinical, lab, and imaging data as input to predict various outcomes in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, blood samples were analyzed for glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1). The non-contrast head CTs were reviewed by two neuroradiologists for TBI common data elements (CDE). Three outcomes were designed to predict: discharged or admitted for further management (prediction 1), deceased or not deceased (prediction 2), and admission only, prolonged stay, or neurosurgery performed (prediction 3). Five ML models were trained. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analyses were used to assess the relative significance of variables.

RESULTS

Four hundred forty patients were used to predict predictions 1 and 2, while 271 patients were used in prediction 3. Due to Prediction 3's hospitalization requirement, deceased and discharged patients could not be utilized. The Random Forest model achieved an average accuracy of 1.00 for prediction 1 and an accuracy of 0.99 for prediction 2. The Random Forest model achieved a mean accuracy of 0.93 for prediction 3. Key features were extracranial injury, hemorrhage, UCH-L1 for prediction 1; The Glasgow Coma Scale, age, GFAP for prediction 2; and GFAP, subdural hemorrhage volume, and pneumocephalus for prediction 3, per SHAP analysis.

CONCLUSION

Combining clinical and laboratory parameters with non-contrast CT CDEs allowed our ML models to accurately predict the designed outcomes of TBI patients. GFAP and UCH-L1 were among the significant predictor variables, demonstrating the importance of these biomarkers.

Machine Learning in Neurosurgery: Toward Complex Inputs, Actionable Predictions, and Generalizable Translations

Machine learning can predict neurosurgical diagnosis and outcomes, power imaging analysis, and perform robotic navigation and tumor labeling. State-of-the-art models can reconstruct and generate images, predict surgical events from video, and assist in intraoperative decision-making. In this review, we will detail the neurosurgical applications of machine learning, ranging from simple to advanced models, and their potential to transform patient care. As machine learning techniques, outputs, and methods become increasingly complex, their performance is often more impactful yet increasingly difficult to evaluate. We aim to introduce these advancements to the neurosurgical audience while suggesting major potential roadblocks to their safe and effective translation. Unlike the previous generation of machine learning in neurosurgery, the safe translation of recent advancements will be contingent on neurosurgeons' involvement in model development and validation.

Mortality prediction using medical time series on TBI patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is one of the leading causes of injury-related mortality in the world, with severe cases reaching mortality rates of 30-40%. It is highly heterogeneous both in causes and consequences making more complex the medical interpretation and prognosis. Gathering clinical, demographic, and laboratory data to perform a prognosis requires time and skill in several clinical specialties. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods can take advantage of existing data by performing helpful predictions and guiding physicians toward a better prognosis and, consequently, better healthcare. The objective of this work was to develop learning models and evaluate their capability of predicting the mortality of TBI. The predictive model would allow the early assessment of the more serious cases and scarce medical resources can be pointed toward the patients who need them most.

METHODS

Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures were tested and compared in performance, coupled with data imbalance, missing data, and feature selection strategies. From the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) dataset, a cohort of TBI patients was selected and an analysis of the first 48 hours of multiple time series sequential variables was done to predict hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The best performance was obtained with the Transformer architecture, achieving an AUC of 0.907 with the larger group of features and trained with class proportion class weights and binary cross entropy loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the time series sequential data, LSTM and Transformers proved to be both viable options for predicting TBI hospital mortality in 48 hours after admission. Overall, using sequential deep learning models with time series data to predict TBI mortality is viable and can be used as a helpful indicator of the well-being of patients.

Machine learning-based models to predict the need for neurosurgical intervention after moderate traumatic brain injury

Background and Aims

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a widespread global health issue with significant economic consequences. However, no existing model exists to predict the need for neurosurgical intervention in moderate TBI patients with positive initial computed tomography scans. This study determines the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based models in predicting the need for neurosurgical intervention.

Methods

This is a retrospective study of patients admitted to the neuro-intensive care unit of Emtiaz Hospital, Shiraz, Iran, between January 2018 and December 2020. The most clinically important variables from patients that met our inclusion and exclusion criteria were collected and used as predictors. We developed models using multilayer perceptron, random forest, support vector machines (SVM), and logistic regression. To evaluate the models, their F1-score, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were assessed using a fourfold cross-validation method.

Results

Based on predictive models, SVM showed the highest performance in predicting the need for neurosurgical intervention, with an F1-score of 0.83, an area under curve of 0.93, sensitivity of 0.82, specificity of 0.84, a positive predictive value of 0.83, and a negative predictive value of 0.83.

Conclusion

The use of ML-based models as decision-making tools can be effective in predicting with high accuracy whether neurosurgery will be necessary after moderate TBIs. These models may ultimately be used as decision-support tools to evaluate early intervention in TBI patients.

Predicting return to work after traumatic brain injury using machine learning and administrative data

BACKGROUND

Accurate patient-specific predictions on return-to-work after traumatic brain injury (TBI) can support both clinical practice and policymaking. The use of machine learning on large administrative data provides interesting opportunities to create such prognostic models.

AIM

The current study assesses whether return-to-work one year after TBI can be predicted accurately from administrative data. Additionally, this study explores how model performance and feature importance change depending on whether a distinction is made between mild and moderate-to-severe TBI.

METHODS

This study used a population-based dataset that combined discharge, claims and social security data of patients hospitalized with a TBI in Belgium during the year 2016. The prediction of TBI was attempted with three algorithms, elastic net logistic regression, random forest and gradient boosting and compared in their performance by their accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operator curve (ROC AUC).

RESULTS

The distinct modelling algorithms resulted in similar results, with 83% accuracy (ROC AUC 85%) for a binary classification of employed vs. not employed and up to 76% (ROC AUC 82%) for a multiclass operationalization of employment outcome. Modelling mild and moderate-to-severe TBI separately did not result in considerable differences in model performance and feature importance. The features of main importance for return-to-work prediction were related to pre-injury employment.

DISCUSSION

While clearly offering some information beneficial for predicting return-to-work, administrative data needs to be supplemented with additional information to allow further improvement of patient-specific prognose.

Machine Learning to Predict Three Types of Outcomes After Traumatic Brain Injury Using Data at Admission: A Multi-Center Study for Development and Validation

The difficulty of accurately identifying patients who would benefit from promising treatments makes it challenging to prove the efficacy of novel treatments for traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although machine learning is being increasingly applied to this task, existing binary outcome prediction models are insufficient for the effective stratification of TBI patients. The aim of this study was to develop an accurate 3-class outcome prediction model to enable appropriate patient stratification. To this end, retrospective balanced data of 1200 blunt TBI patients admitted to six Japanese hospitals from January 2018 onwards (200 consecutive cases at each institution) were used for model training and validation. We incorporated 21 predictors obtained in the emergency department, including age, sex, six clinical findings, four laboratory parameters, eight computed tomography findings, and an emergency craniotomy. We developed two machine learning models (XGBoost and dense neural network) and logistic regression models to predict 3-class outcomes based on the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) at discharge. The prediction models were developed using a training dataset with n = 1000, and their prediction performances were evaluated over two validation rounds on a validation dataset (n = 80) and a test dataset (n = 120) using the bootstrap method. Of the 1200 patients in aggregate, the median patient age was 71 years, 199 (16.7%) exhibited severe TBI, and emergency craniotomy was performed on 104 patients (8.7%). The median length of stay was 13.0 days. The 3-class outcomes were good recovery/moderate disability for 709 patients (59.1%), severe disability/vegetative state in 416 patients (34.7%), and death in 75 patients (6.2%). XGBoost model performed well with 69.5% sensitivity, 82.5% accuracy, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.901 in the final validation. In terms of the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the XGBoost outperformed the neural network-based and logistic regression models slightly. In particular, XGBoost outperformed the logistic regression model significantly in predicting severe disability/vegetative state. Although each model predicted favorable outcomes accurately, they tended to miss the mortality prediction. The proposed machine learning model was demonstrated to be capable of accurate prediction of in-hospital outcomes following TBI, even with the three GOSE-based categories. As a result, it is expected to be more impactful in the development of appropriate patient stratification methods in future TBI studies than conventional binary prognostic models. Further, outcomes were predicted based on only clinical data obtained from the emergency department. However, developing a robust model with consistent performance in diverse scenarios remains challenging, and further efforts are needed to improve generalization performance.

AI-Based Decision Support System for Traumatic Brain Injury: A Survey

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the major causes of disability and mortality worldwide. Rapid and precise clinical assessment and decision-making are essential to improve the outcome and the resulting complications. Due to the size and complexity of the data analyzed in TBI cases, computer-aided data processing, analysis, and decision support systems could play an important role. However, developing such systems is challenging due to the heterogeneity of symptoms, varying data quality caused by different spatio-temporal resolutions, and the inherent noise associated with image and signal acquisition. The purpose of this article is to review current advances in developing artificial intelligence-based decision support systems for the diagnosis, severity assessment, and long-term prognosis of TBI complications.

An end-end deep learning framework for lesion segmentation on multi-contrast MR images-an exploratory study in a rat model of traumatic brain injury

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) engenders traumatic necrosis and penumbra-areas of secondary neural injury which are crucial targets for therapeutic interventions. Segmenting manually areas of ongoing changes like necrosis, edema, hematoma, and inflammation is tedious, error-prone, and biased. Using the multi-parametric MR data from a rodent model study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of an end-end deep learning global-attention-based UNet (GA-UNet) framework for automatic segmentation and quantification of TBI lesions. Longitudinal MR scans (2 h, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, and 60 days) were performed on eight Sprague-Dawley rats after controlled cortical injury was performed. TBI lesion and sub-regions segmentation was performed using 3D-UNet and GA-UNet. Dice statistics (DSI) and Hausdorff distance were calculated to assess the performance. MR scan variations-based (bias, noise, blur, ghosting) data augmentation was performed to develop a robust model.Training/validation median DSI for U-Net was 0.9368 with T2w and MPRAGE inputs, whereas GA-UNet had 0.9537 for the same. Testing accuracies were higher for GA-UNet than U-Net with a DSI of 0.8232 for the T2w-MPRAGE inputs.Longitudinally, necrosis remained constant while oligemia and penumbra decreased, and edema appearing around day 3 which increased with time. GA-UNet shows promise for multi-contrast MR image-based segmentation/quantification of TBI in large cohort studies.