A prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival in women with recurrent ovarian cancer treated with bevacizumab and chemotherapy

The Potential Influence of Residual or Recurrent Disease on Bevacizumab Treatment Efficacy in Ovarian Cancer: Current Evidence and Future Perspectives

There were high hopes for the new antiangiogenic medicament, bevacizumab, which could inhibit the creation of new blood vessels through binding to isoform A of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). However, it is not only blood vessels that are responsible for tumor cell spread. During the process of tumor growth, lymphangiogenesis is mediated by other members of the VEGF family, specifically VEGF-C and VEGF-D, which act independent to bevacizumab. Therefore, based on the mechanism of bevacizumab action and the processes of angio- and lymphangiogenesis, we formed three hypotheses: (1) if the lymph nodes in primary ovarian cancers are metastatic, the outcome of bevacizumab treatment is worsened; (2) concerning the second-line treatment, bevacizumab will act in a weakened manner if recurrence occurs in lymph nodes as opposed to a local recurrence; (3) patients treated by bevacizumab are more likely to have recurrences in lymph nodes. These hypotheses raise the issue of the existing knowledge gap, which concerns the effect of bevacizumab on metastatic lymph nodes.

Perhexiline: Old Drug, New Tricks? A Summary of Its Anti-Cancer Effects

Cancer metabolic plasticity, including changes in fatty acid metabolism utilisation, is now widely appreciated as a key driver for cancer cell growth, survival and malignancy. Hence, cancer metabolic pathways have been the focus of much recent drug development. Perhexiline is a prophylactic antianginal drug known to act by inhibiting carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1 (CPT1) and 2 (CPT2), mitochondrial enzymes critical for fatty acid metabolism. In this review, we discuss the growing evidence that perhexiline has potent anti-cancer properties when tested as a monotherapy or in combination with traditional chemotherapeutics. We review the CPT1/2 dependent and independent mechanisms of its anti-cancer activities. Finally, we speculate on the clinical feasibility and utility of repurposing perhexiline as an anti-cancer agent, its limitations including known side effects and its potential added benefit of limiting cardiotoxicity induced by other chemotherapeutics.

Anti-angiogenic therapy in ovarian cancer: Current understandings and prospects of precision medicine

Ovarian cancer (OC) remains the most fatal disease of gynecologic malignant tumors. Angiogenesis refers to the development of new vessels from pre-existing ones, which is responsible for supplying nutrients and removing metabolic waste. Although not yet completely understood, tumor vascularization is orchestrated by multiple secreted factors and signaling pathways. The most central proangiogenic signal, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)/VEGFR signaling, is also the primary target of initial clinical anti-angiogenic effort. However, the efficiency of therapy has so far been modest due to the low response rate and rapidly emerging acquiring resistance. This review focused on the current understanding of the in-depth mechanisms of tumor angiogenesis, together with the newest reports of clinical trial outcomes and resistance mechanism of anti-angiogenic agents in OC. We also emphatically summarized and analyzed previously reported biomarkers and predictive models to describe the prospect of precision therapy of anti-angiogenic drugs in OC.

Identification of Immune-Related Subtypes and Construction of a Novel Prognostic Model for Bladder Urothelial Cancer

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between bladder urothelial cancer (BLCA) and immunity, to screen prognosis-related immune genes (PIGs), and to construct an immune-related prognosis model (IRPM). We processed the relevant data of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA-BLCA) and GSE13507 using R software and Perl. We divided BLCA into high-immunity and low-immunity subtypes. There were significant differences in the two subtypes. In addition, we identified 13 PIGs of BLCA by jointly analyzing the gene expression data and survival information of GSE13507 and TCGA-BLCA, and constructed IRPM through nine of them. The low-risk group had better survival outcome than the high-risk group. We also constructed a nomogram based on clinicopathological information and risk scores of the patients. Moreover, the prognosis of BLCA patients was significantly impacted by the expression of almost every gene used to calculate the risk score. The result of real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction revealed that all the genes used to calculate the risk score were differentially expressed between BLCA and adjacent normal tissues, except PDGFRA. Our research provided potential targets for the treatment of BLCA and a reference for judging the prognosis of BLCA.

Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index Predicts Outcomes in Platinum-Resistant Relapsed Ovarian Cancer

We explored the prognostic impact of simple indices that reflect the immunological milieu (neutrophils to lymphocyte ratio [NLR] and systemic immune-inflammation [SII]) in 49 platinum-resistant relapsed ovarian cancer patients. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 4 and 8 months, respectively. Patients with a lower NLR (≤2.89) had a better PFS (5 vs. 2 months [p = 0.02]) and OS (9 vs. 5 months [p = 0.20]). Factors associated with a worse PFS were NLR > 2.8 (hazard ratio [HR] =2.32, p = 0.02) and SII > 639 (HR =3.70, p = 0.002). SII > 639 independently predicted PFS (HR =4.13, p = 0.03). Future studies should study the validity of inflammatory markers and could consider incorporating it as a biomarker in clinical trials.

Identification of a Novel Tumor Microenvironment Prognostic Signature for Bladder Urothelial Carcinoma

Background

The tumor microenvironment (TME) regulates the proliferation and metastasis of solid tumors and the effectiveness of immunotherapy against them. We investigated the prognostic role of TME-related genes based on transcriptomic data of bladder urothelial carcinoma (BLCA) and formulated a prediction model of TME-related signatures.

Methods

Molecular subtypes were identified using the non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm based on TME-related genes from the TCGA database. TME-related genes with prognostic significance were screened with univariate Cox regression analysis and lasso regression. Nomogram was developed based on risk genes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for inner and outer validation of the model. Risk scores (RS) of patients were calculated and divided into high-risk group (HRG) and low-risk group (LRG) to compare the differences in clinical characteristics and PD-L1 treatment responsiveness between HRG and LRG.

Results

We identified two molecular subtypes (C1 and C2) according to the NMF algorithm. There were significant differences in overall survival (OS) (p<0.05), progression-free survival (PFS) (p<0.05), and immune cell infiltration between the two subtypes. A total of eight TME-associated genes (CABP4, ZNF432, BLOC1S3, CXCL11, ANO9, OAS1, FBN2, CEMIP) with independent prognostic significance were screened to build prognostic risk models. Age (p<0.001), grade (p<0.001), and RS (p<0.001) were independent predictors of survival in BLCA patients. The developed RS nomogram was able to predict the prognosis of BLCA patients at 1, 3, and 5 years more potentially than the models of other investigators according to ROC and DCA. RS showed significantly higher values (p = 0.047) in patients with stable disease (SD)/progressive disease (PD) compared to patients with complete response (CR)/partial response (PR).

Conclusions

We successfully clustered and constructed predictive models for TME-associated genes and helped guide immunotherapy strategies.

Prognostic Impact of Pleural Effusion in Patients with Malignancy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The exact role of pleural effusion in the prognosis of cancer patients remains unclear. We aimed to systematically review the prognostic value of pleural effusion in patients with cancer. We performed a systematic review and meta‐analysis with a systematic literature search. All cohort studies with available overall survival (OS) and progression‐free survival (PFS) results for patients with cancer with or without pleural effusion were included. The Mantel–Haenszel method was used to calculate the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity and publication bias were examined. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed. A total of 47 studies with 146,117 patients were included in the analysis. For OS, pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with a poor prognosis for patients with cancer (HR, 1.58, 95% CI, 1.43–1.75; I² 94.8%). In the subgroup analysis, pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with poor survival for patients with lung cancer (HR, 1.44, 95% CI, 1.35–1.54; I² 60.8%), hematological cancer (HR, 2.79, 95% CI, 1.63–4.77; I² 29.4%) and other types of cancer (HR, 2.08, 95% CI, 1.43–3.01; I² 55.1%). For PFS, pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with a poor prognosis for patients with cancer (HR, 1.61, 95% CI, 1.28–2.03; I² 42.9%). We also observed that massive pleural effusion was a prognostic factor associated with a poorer prognosis compared to minimal pleural effusion. Pleural effusion had prognostic value in both OS and PFS of patients with cancer, except for patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma, regardless of whether the malignant effusion was confirmed histologically or cytologically. However, future evidence of other pleural effusion characteristics is still needed.

Toward More Comprehensive Homologous Recombination Deficiency Assays in Ovarian Cancer Part 2: Medical Perspectives

Simple Summary

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC—the most frequent and aggressive form of ovarian cancer) represents an important challenge for clinicians. Half of HGSOC cases exhibit homologous recombination deficiency (HRD), mainly through alterations in BRCA1 and BRCA2. This leads to sensitivity to PARP inhibitors, a novel class of breakthrough molecules that improved HGSOC prognoses. To date, three companion diagnostic assays have received FDA approval for the evaluation of HRD status, but their use remains controversial. In this companion review (Part 1: Technical considerations; Part 2: Medical perspectives), we develop an integrative perspective, from translational research to clinical application, that could help physicians and researchers manage HGSOC.

Abstract

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is the most frequent and aggressive form of ovarian cancer, representing an important challenge for clinicians. Half of HGSOC cases have homologous recombination deficiency (HRD), which has specific causes (mainly alterations in BRCA1/2, but also other alterations encompassed by the BRCAness concept) and consequences, both at molecular (e.g., genomic instability) and clinical (e.g., sensitivity to PARP inhibitor) levels. Based on its prevalence and clinical impact, HRD status merits investigation. To date, three PARP inhibitors have received FDA/EMA approval. For some approvals, the presence of specific molecular alterations is required. Three companion diagnostic (CDx) assays based on distinct technical and medical considerations have received FDA approval to date. However, their use remains controversial due to their technical and medical limitations. In this companion and integrated review, we take a “bench-to-bedside” perspective on HRD definition and evaluation in the context of HGSOC. Part 1 of the review adopts a molecular perspective regarding technical considerations and the development of CDx. Part 2 focuses on the clinical impact of HRD evaluation, primarily through currently validated CDx and prescription of PARP inhibitors, outlining achievements, limitations and medical perspectives.

Identification of a Novel Tumor Microenvironment Prognostic Signature for Advanced-Stage Serous Ovarian Cancer

Simple Summary

The expression of tumor microenvironment-related genes is known to be correlated with ovarian cancer patients’ prognosis. Immunotherapeutic targets are in part located in this complex cluster of cells and soluble factors. In our study, we constructed a prognostic 11-gene signature for advanced serous ovarian cancer from tumor microenvironment-related genes through lasso regression. The established risk score can quantify the prognosis of ovarian cancer patients more accurately and is able to predict the putative biological response of cancer samples to a programmed death ligand 1 blocking immunotherapy. This might empower the role of immunotherapy in ovarian cancer through its usage in future study protocols.

Abstract

(1) Background: The tumor microenvironment is involved in the growth and proliferation of malignant tumors and in the process of resistance towards systemic and targeted therapies. A correlation between the gene expression profile of the tumor microenvironment and the prognosis of ovarian cancer patients is already known. (2) Methods: Based on data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (379 RNA sequencing samples), we constructed a prognostic 11-gene signature (SNRPA1, CCL19, CXCL11, CDC5L, APCDD1, LPAR2, PI3, PLEKHF1, CCDC80, CPXM1 and CTAG2) for Fédération Internationale de Gynécologie et d’Obstétrique stage III and IV serous ovarian cancer through lasso regression. (3) Results: The established risk score was able to predict the 1-, 3- and 5-year prognoses more accurately than previously known models. (4) Conclusions: We were able to confirm the predictive power of this model when we applied it to cervical and urothelial cancer, supporting its pan-cancer usability. We found that immune checkpoint genes correlate negatively with a higher risk score. Based on this information, we used our risk score to predict the biological response of cancer samples to an anti-programmed death ligand 1 immunotherapy, which could be useful for future clinical studies on immunotherapy in ovarian cancer.

Bevacizumab use in the frontline, maintenance and recurrent settings for ovarian cancer

On 13 June 2018, Genentech, Inc. issued a press release announcing that the US FDA had approved the antiangiogenesis drug, bevacizumab, in combination with chemotherapy for frontline and maintenance therapy for women with newly diagnosed ovarian cancer. Regulatory approval was based on the National Cancer Institute-sponsored Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) protocol 0218, the Phase III, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, multi-center and multi-national clinical trial that met its primary end point, progression-free survival. Bevacizumab is now approved in the frontline, platinum-sensitive recurrent and platinum-resistant recurrent settings for epithelial ovarian cancer. This review will address the broad range of clinical trials addressing the efficacy of bevacizumab use in ovarian cancer.

TOP2A as marker of response to pegylated lyposomal doxorubicin (PLD) in epithelial ovarian cancers

Objective

Relapsed epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is frequently treated with pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD). Unfortunately, most patients do not benefit from treatment. Prediction of response is crucial to optimize PLD use and avoid unnecessary toxicities. We aimed at assessing the value of topoisomerase II alpha (TOP2A) expression as predictive marker of response to PLD-based therapy in patients with relapsed EOCs.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed Formalin Fixed Paraffin Embedded (FFPE) tissues from 101 patients with platinum resistant (PR) or partially platinum-sensitive (PPS) EOCs treated with PLD-based chemotherapy beyond second line in three referral cancer centers between January 2010 and June 2018. TOP2A expression was measured by immunohistochemistry (IHC): images of each sample were acquired by optical microscope and analyzed by using automatic counter software. Correlation between TOP2A expression and response to PLD was assessed. Since no cut-off for positivity has been validated yet, we dichotomized TOP2A expression based on a cut-off of 18% (mean value in this study).

Results

TOP2A expression beyond cut-off was not prognostic for primary platinum-free interval in our series (p = 0.77) neither for optimal cytoreduction (p = 0.9). TOP2A > 18% was associated with a longer time to progression (TTP) following PLD-treatment, although not statistically significant (p = 0.394). No difference was observed between PR and PPS patients’ groups (p = 0.445 and p = 0.185, respectively). Not unexpectedly, patients with TOP2A expression > 18% treated with PLD monotherapy achieved a longer TTP compared with PLD-doublet therapy (p = 0.05).

Conclusions

Our data suggest that TOP2A status might predict activity of PLD in patients with PR/PPS EOCs.

[Diagnostic and prognostic value of tumor markers, scores (clinical and biological) algorithms, in front of an ovarian mass suspected of an epithelial ovarian cancer: Article drafted from the French Guidelines in oncology entitled "Initial management of patients with epithelial ovarian cancer" developed by FRANCOGYN, CNGOF, SFOG, GINECO-ARCAGY under the aegis of CNGOF and endorsed by INCa]

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the diagnostic value of serum/urinary biomarkers and the operability diagnosis strategy to make management recommendations.

METHODS

Bibliographical search in French and English languages by consultation of Pubmed, Cochrane and Embase databases.

RESULTS

For the diagnosis of a suspicious adnexal mass on imaging: Serum CA125 antigen is recommended (grade A). Serum CAE is not recommended (grade C). The low evidence in literature concerning diagnostic value of CA19.9 does not allow any recommendation concerning its use. Serum Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is recommended (grade A). Comparison of data concerning diagnosis value of CA125 and HE4 show similar results for the prediction of malignancy in case of a suspicious adnexal mass on imaging (NP1). Urinary HE4 is not recommended (grade A). The use of circulating tumor DNA is not recommended (grade A). Tumor associated antigen-antibodies (AAbs) is not recommended (grade B). The use of ROMA score (Risk of Ovarian Malignancy Algorithm) is recommended (grade A). The use of Copenhagen index (CPH-I), R-OPS score, OVA500 is not recommended (grade C). For the prediction of resectability of an ovarian cancer with peritoneal carcinomatosis in the context of a primary debulking surgery: It is not recommendend to use serum CA125 (grade A). The low evidence in literature concerning diagnostic value of HE4 does not allow any recommendation concerning its use in this context. No recommendation can be given concerning CA19.9 and CAE. For the prediction of resectability of an ovarian cancer with peritoneal carcinomatosis in the context of surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy: the low evidence in literature concerning diagnostic value of serum markers in this context does not allow any recommendation concerning their use in this context. Place of laparoscopy for the prediction of resectability in case of upfront surgery of an ovarian cancer with peritoneal carcinomatosis robust data shows that the use of laparoscopy significantly reduce futile laparotomies (LE1). Laparoscopy is recommended in this context (grade A). Fagotti score is a reproducible tool (LE1) permitting the evaluation of feasibility of an optimal upfront debulking (NP4), its use is recommended (grade C). A Fagotti score≥8 is correlated to a low probability of complete or optimal debulking surgery (LE4) (grade C). There is no sufficient evidence to recommend the use of the modified Fagotti score or any other laparoscopic score (LE4). In case of laparotomy for an ovarian cancer with peritoneal carcinomatosis, the use of Peritoneal Cancer Index (PCI) is recommended (grade C). For the prediction of overall survival, disease free survival and the prediction of postoperative complications, the clinical and statistical of actually available tools do not allow any recommendation.

Development of Web-Based Nomograms to Predict Treatment Response and Prognosis of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Purpose

Discovery of models predicting the exact prognosis of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is necessary as the first step of implementation of individualized treatment. This study aimed to develop nomograms predicting treatment response and prognosis in EOC.

Materials and Methods

We comprehensively reviewed medical records of 866 patients diagnosed with and treated for EOC at two tertiary institutional hospitals between 2007 and 2016. Patients’ clinico-pathologic characteristics, details of primary treatment, intra-operative surgical findings, and survival outcomes were collected. To construct predictive nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year progression-free survival (PFS), and 5-year overall survival (OS), we performed stepwise variable selection by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with leave-one-out cross-validation. For model validation, 10-fold cross-validation was applied.

Results

The median length of observation was 42.4 months (interquartile range, 25.7 to 69.9 months), during which 441 patients (50.9%) experienced disease recurrence. The median value of PFS was 32.6 months and 3-year PFS rate was 47.8% while 5-year OS rate was 68.4%. The AUCs of the newly developed nomograms predicting platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS were 0.758, 0.841, and 0.805, respectively. We also developed predictive nomograms confined to the patients who underwent primary debulking surgery. The AUCs for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS were 0.713, 0.839, and 0.803, respectively.

Conclusion

We successfully developed nomograms predicting treatment response and prognosis of patients with EOC. These nomograms are expected to be useful in clinical practice and designing clinical trials.

Tumor evolution and chemoresistance in ovarian cancer

Development of novel strategies to overcome chemoresistance is central goal in ovarian cancer research. Natural history of the cancer development and progression is being reconstructed by genomic datasets to understand the evolutionary pattern and direction. Recent studies suggest that intra-tumor heterogeneity (ITH) is the main cause of treatment failure by chemoresistance in many types of cancers including ovarian cancer. ITH increases the fitness of tumor to adapt to incompatible microenvironment. Understanding ITH in relation to the evolutionary pattern may result in the development of the innovative approach based on individual variability in the genetic, environment, and life style. Thus, we can reach the new big stage conquering the cancer. In this review, we will discuss the recent advances in understanding ovarian cancer biology through the use of next generation sequencing (NGS) and highlight areas of recent progress to improve precision medicine in ovarian cancer.

Fifth Ovarian Cancer Consensus Conference of the Gynecologic Cancer InterGroup: recurrent disease

This manuscript reports the consensus statements regarding recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC), reached at the fifth Ovarian Cancer Consensus Conference (OCCC), which was held in Tokyo, Japan, in November 2015. Three important questions were identified: (i) What are the subgroups for clinical trials in ROC? The historical definition of using platinum-free interval (PFI) to categorise patients as having platinum-sensitive/resistant disease was replaced by therapy-free interval (TFI). TFI can be broken down into TFIp (PFI), TFInp (non-PFI) and TFIb (biological agent-free interval). Additional criteria to consider include histology, BRCA mutation status, number/type of previous therapies, outcome of prior surgery and patient reported symptoms. (ii) What are the control arms for clinical trials in ROC? When platinum is considered the best option, the control arm should be a platinum-based therapy with or without an anti-angiogenic agent or a poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor. If platinum is not considered the best option, the control arm could include a non-platinum drug, either as single agent or in combination. (iii) What are the endpoints for clinical trials in ROC? Overall survival (OS) is the preferred endpoint for patient cohorts with an expected median OS < or = 12 months. Progression-free survival (PFS) is an alternative, and it is the preferred endpoint when the expected median OS is > 12 months. However, PFS alone should not be the only endpoint and must be supported by additional endpoints including pre-defined patient reported outcomes (PROs), time to second subsequent therapy (TSST), or time until definitive deterioration of quality of life (TUDD).

Chemotherapy for ovarian cancer in the Netherlands: a population-based study on treatment patterns and outcomes

Information on treatment patterns for ovarian cancer (OC) is limited. The aim of this study was to describe current patterns of chemotherapy and other systemic treatments for OC in the Netherlands and evaluate survival outcomes following subsequent lines of treatment. Data from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry, including on newly diagnosed cancer patients, were linked to the PHARMO Database Network, including information on in- and out-patient drug use. Patients diagnosed with OC between January 2000 and December 2010 were selected. An algorithm was used to identify separate lines of treatment. Data were studied descriptively. Detailed data on systemic drug use were available for 261 patients (17%) with OC. In first-line treatment, 87% of the patients (227/261) received platinum-based chemotherapy. Of the 161 patients receiving second-line treatment, 101 patients (63%) received platinum-based chemotherapy. In third line, this was 51% (53/103). The median number of treatment lines received by patients was two (interquartile range 1-3), and eight or more lines of chemotherapy were identified for 12 patients. Median survival from diagnosis onwards was 47 months from the end of first-line treatment, median survival was 32 months, and from the end of second-line treatment, it was 14 months. Predominantly beyond second-line treatment, there is much variety in treatment patterns with chemotherapy for OC. Although uncertainty remains regarding the desirability of this observed treatment variation, there seems a need for detailed clinical guidance, assuring that physicians can properly choose the most suitable treatment for each patient.

IL17a and IL21 combined with surgical status predict the outcome of ovarian cancer patients

Aside from tumor cells, ovarian cancer-related ascites contains the immune components. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a combination of clinical and immunological parameters can predict survival in patients with ovarian cancer. Ascites specimens and medical records from 144 ovarian cancer patients at our hospital were used as the derivation group to select target clinical and immunological factors to generate a risk-scoring system to predict patient survival. Eighty-two cases from another hospital were used as the validation group to evaluate this system. The surgical status and expression levels of interleukin 17a (IL17a) and IL21 in ascites were selected for the risk-scoring system in the derivation group. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of the overall score for disease-free survival (DFS) of the ovarian cancer patients were 0.84 in the derivation group, 0.85 in the validation group, and 0.84 for all the patients. The AUROC curves of the overall score for overall survival (OS) of cases were 0.78 in the derivation group, 0.76 in the validation group, and 0.76 for all the studied patients. Good correlations between overall risk score and survival of the ovarian cancer patients were demonstrated by sub-grouping all participants into four groups (P for trend <0.001 for DFS and OS). Therefore, acombination of clinical and immunological parameters can provide a practical scoring system to predict the survival of patients with ovarian carcinoma. IL17a and IL21 can potentially be used as prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers.

A nomogram for predicting the benefit of adjuvant cytokine-induced killer cell immunotherapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

The benefits of adjuvant cytokine-induced killer (CIK) cell immunotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain mixed among patients. Here, we constructed a prognostic nomogram to enable individualized predictions of survival benefit of adjuvant CIK cell treatment for HCC patients. Survival analysis showed that the median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for patients in the hepatectomy/CIK combination group were 41 and 16 months, respectively, compared to 28 and 12 months for patients in the hepatectomy alone group (control). Based on multivariate analysis of the entire cohort, independent factors for OS were tumor size, tumor capsule, pathological grades, total bilirubin, albumin, prothrombin time, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor number, which were incorporated into the nomogram. The survival prediction model performed well, as assessed by the c-index and calibration curve. Internal validation revealed a c-index of 0.698, which was significantly greater than the c-index value of the TNM (tumor–node–metastasis) staging systems of 0.634. The calibration curves fitted well. In conclusions, our developed nomogram resulted in more accurate individualized predictions of the survival benefit from adjuvant CIK cell treatment after hepatectomy. The model may provide valuable information to aid in the decision making regarding the application of adjuvant CIK cell immunotherapy.

Development and internal validation of a prognostic model to predict recurrence free survival in patients with adult granulosa cell tumors of the ovary

OBJECTIVE

Models to predict the probability of recurrence free survival exist for various types of malignancies, but a model for recurrence free survival in individuals with an adult granulosa cell tumor (GCT) of the ovary is lacking. We aimed to develop and internally validate such a prognostic model.

METHODS

We performed a multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients with a GCT. Demographic, clinical and pathological information were considered as potential predictors. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Using backward stepwise selection we identified the combination of predictors that best predicted recurrence free survival. Discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration were used to assess model performance. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques to correct for overfitting. To increase clinical applicability of the model we developed a nomogram to allow individual prediction of recurrence free survival.

RESULTS

We identified 127 patients with a GCT (median follow-up time was 131 months (IQR 70-215)). Recurrence of GCT occurred in 81 out of 127 patients (64%). The following four variables jointly best predicted recurrence free survival; clinical stage, Body Mass Index (BMI), tumor diameter and mitotic index. The model had a c-statistic of 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.80) and showed accurate calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrence free survival in patients with an adult GCT of the ovary can be accurately predicted by a combination of BMI, clinical stage, tumor diameter and mitotic index. The introduced nomogram could facilitate in counseling patients and may help to guide patients and caregivers in joint decisions on post-treatment surveillance.