Reducing unnecessary referrals for colposcopy in hrHPV-positive women within the Dutch cervical cancer screening programme: A modelling study

Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination

Cervical cancer is the first cancer deemed amenable to elimination through prevention, and thus lessons from the epidemiology and prevention of this cancer type can provide information on strategies to manage other cancers. Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) causes virtually all cervical cancers, and an important proportion of oropharyngeal, anal and genital cancers. Whereas 20th century prevention efforts were dominated by cytology-based screening, the present and future of HPV-associated cancer prevention relies mostly on HPV vaccination and molecular screening tests. In this Review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers, their disease burden, how past and contemporary preventive interventions have shaped their incidence and mortality, and the potential for elimination. We particularly focus on the cofactors that could have the greatest effect on prevention efforts, such as parity and human immunodeficiency virus infection, as well as on social determinants of health. Given that the incidence of and mortality from HPV-associated cancers remain strongly associated with the socioeconomic status of individuals and the human development index of countries, elimination efforts are unlikely to succeed unless prevention efforts focus on health equity, with a commitment to both primary and secondary prevention.

Cost-effectiveness of primary human papillomavirus triage approaches among vaccinated women in Norway: A model-based analysis

As Norway considers revising triage approaches following their first adolescent cohort with human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination entering the cervical cancer screening program, we analyzed the health impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative primary HPV triage approaches for women initiating cervical cancer screening in 2023. We used a multimodeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to evaluate the health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of alternative extended genotyping and age-based triage strategies under five-yearly primary HPV testing (including the status-quo screening strategy in Norway) for women born in 1998 (ie, age 25 in 2023). We examined 35 strategies that varied alternative groupings of high-risk HPV genotypes ("high-risk" genotypes; "medium-risk" genotypes or "intermediate-risk" genotypes), number and types of HPV included in each group, management of HPV-positive women to direct colposcopy or active surveillance, wait time for re-testing and age at which the HPV triage algorithm switched from less to more intensive strategies. Given the range of benchmarks for severity-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway, we found that the preferred strategy for vaccinated women aged 25 years in 2023 involved an age-based switch from a less to more intensive follow-up algorithm at age 30 or 35 years with HPV-16/18 genotypes in the "high-risk" group. The two potentially cost-effective strategies could reduce the number of colposcopies compared to current guidelines and simultaneously improve health benefits. Using age to guide primary HPV triage, paired with selective HPV genotype and follow-up time for re-testing, could improve both the cervical cancer program effectiveness and efficiency.

Acceptability of risk-based triage in cervical cancer screening: A focus group study

BACKGROUND

Compared to the previous cytology-based program, the introduction of primary high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) based screening in 2017 has led to an increased number of referrals. To counter this, triage of hrHPV-positive women in cervical cancer screening can potentially be optimized by taking sociodemographic and lifestyle risk factors for cervical abnormalities into account. Therefore, it is essential to gain knowledge of the views of women (30-60 years) eligible for cervical cancer screening.

OBJECTIVE

The main goal of this qualitative study was to gain insight in the aspects that influence acceptability of risk-based triage in cervical cancer screening.

DESIGN

A focus group study in which participants were recruited via four general medical practices, and purposive sampling was used to maximize heterogeneity with regards to age, education level, and cervical cancer screening experiences.

APPROACH

The focus group discussions were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 28 women (average age: 45.2 years) eligible for cervical cancer screening in The Netherlands participated in seven online focus group discussions. Half of the participants was higher educated, and the participants differed in previous cervical cancer screening participation and screening result.

KEY RESULTS

In total, 5 main themes and 17 subthemes were identified that determine the acceptability of risk-stratified triage. The main themes are: 1) adequacy of the screening program: an evidence-based program that is able to minimize cancer incidence and reduce unnecessary referrals; 2) personal information (e.g., sensitive topics and stigma); 3) emotional impact: fear and reassurance; 4) communication (e.g., transparency); and 5) autonomy (e.g., prevention).

CONCLUSION

The current study highlights several challenges regarding the development and implementation of risk-based triage that need attention in order to be accepted by the target group. These challenges include dealing with sensitive topics and a transparent communication strategy.

DNA methylation as a triage marker for colposcopy referral in HPV-based cervical cancer screening: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Screening plays a key role in secondary prevention of cervical cancer. High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing, a highly sensitive test but with limited specificity, has become the gold standard frontline for screening programs. Thus, the importance of effective triage strategies, including DNA methylation markers, has been emphasized. Despite the potential reported in individual studies, methylation markers still require validation before being recommended for clinical practice. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of DNA methylation-based biomarkers for detecting high-grade intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) in hrHPV-positive women.

METHODS

Hence, PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane databases were searched for studies that assessed methylation in hrHPV-positive women in cervical scrapes. Histologically confirmed HSIL was used as endpoint and QUADAS-2 tool enabled assessment of study quality. A bivariate random-effect model was employed to pool the estimated sensitivity and specificity as well as positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies were included in this meta-analysis, from which cohort and referral population-based studies corresponded to nearly 65%. Most of the women analyzed were Dutch, and CADM1, FAM19A4, MAL, and miR124-2 were the most studied genes. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.68 (CI 95% 0.63-0.72) and 0.75 (CI 95% 0.71-0.80) for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2+ detection, respectively. For CIN3+ detection, pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.78 (CI 95% 0.74-0.82) and 0.74 (CI 95% 0.69-0.78), respectively. For pooled prevalence, PPV for CIN2+ and CIN3+ detection were 0.514 and 0.392, respectively. Furthermore, NPV for CIN2+ and CIN3+ detection were 0.857 and 0.938, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis confirmed the great potential of DNA methylation-based biomarkers as triage tool for hrHPV-positive women in cervical cancer screening. Standardization and improved validation are, however, required. Nevertheless, these markers might represent an excellent alternative to cytology and genotyping for colposcopy referral of hrHPV-positive women, allowing for more cost-effective screening programs.

Detection of DNA Methylation in Gene Loci ASTN1, DLX1, ITGA4, RXFP3, SOX17, and ZNF671 for Diagnosis of Cervical Cancer

Objective

To evaluate the diagnostic value of DNA methylation detection of multiple gene loci in cervical cancer.

Methods

A total of 61 cases requiring cervical biopsy were selected from the outpatient clinic of Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Hubei Province between January 2018 and December 2019. The patients were divided into four groups based on histopathologic diagnosis: cervical cancer (CC) group, high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) group, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) group, and control group. HPV examination, liquid-based cytology examination, and DNA methylation detection at multiple gene sites were performed. The positive rate of DNA methylation, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve (AUC), and other efficacy indexes were calculated to evaluate the diagnostic value of DNA methylation detection at multiple gene loci in cervical cancer.

Results

The positive rates of DNA methylation in CC, HSIL, LSIL, and control groups were 100%, 88%, 83% and 17%, respectively. The ZNF671 gene had the highest positive rate among the cervical lesion group, with rates of 57%, 76%, and 100% in LSIL, HSIL, and CC groups respectively. The combination of DNA methylation detection at multiple gene loci showed the highest diagnostic efficacy for HSIL and cervical cancer, with AUC value of 0.850 (95% CI:0.746-0.954), a Youden index of 0.654, and a sensitivity and specificity of 85% and 85.4%, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy of the combined detection was significantly higher than that of HPV examination and liquid-based cytology examination (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

DNA methylation detection at multiple gene loci is highly effective and diagnostic tool for cervical cancer, and has potential application value in clinical practice.

Promoter hypermethylation analysis of host genes in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cervical cancers on histological cervical specimens

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation is an essential factor in the progression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) to cervical cancer. The aim was to investigate the diagnostic value provided by methylation biomarkers of six tumor suppressor genes (ASTN1, DLX1, ITGA4, RXFP3, SOX17 and ZNF671) for cervical precancerous lesions and cervical cancer.

METHODS

The histological cervical specimens of 396 cases including 93 CIN1, 99 CIN2, 93 CIN3 and 111 cervical cancers were tested for methylation-specific PCR assay (GynTect®) of score and positive rate. Among them, 66 CIN1, 93 CIN2, 87 CIN3 and 72 cervical cancers were further used for paired analysis. A chi-square test was used to analyze the difference of methylation score and positive rate in cervical specimens. The paired t-test and paired chi-square test were for analyzing the methylation score and positive rate in paired CIN and cervical cancer cases. The specificity, sensitivity, odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of the GynTect® assay for CIN2 or worse (CIN2 +) and CIN3 or worse (CIN3 +) were evaluated.

RESULTS

According to the chi-square test trend, hypermethylation increased with severity of the lesions as defined by histological grading (P = 0.000). The methylation score above 1.1 was more common in CIN2 + than in CIN1. The DNA methylation scores in the paired groups of CIN1, CIN3 and cervical cancer were significant differences (P = 0.033, 0.000 and 0.000, respectively), except for CIN2 (P = 0.171). While the positive rate of GynTect® in each paired group had no difference (all P > 0.05). The positive rate of every methylation marker in the GynTect® assay showed differences in four cervical lesion groups (all P < 0.05). The specificity of GynTect® assay for detection of CIN2 + /CIN3 + were higher than high-risk human papillomavirus test. With CIN1 as a reference, the positive status of GynTect®/ZNF671 were significantly higher in CIN2 + : odds ratio (OR) 5.271/OR 13.909, and in CIN3 + : OR 11.022/OR 39.150, (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The promoter methylation of six tumor suppressor genes is related to the severity of cervical lesions. The GynTect® assay based on cervical specimens provides diagnostic values for detecting CIN2 + and CIN3 + .

Inter- and intraobserver agreement in whole-slide digital ThinPrep samples of low-grade squamous lesions of the cervix uteri with known high-risk HPV status: A multicentric international study

BACKGROUND

High-risk human papilloma virus (HR HPV) testing and liquid-based cytology are used for primary cervical screening. Digital cytology, based on whole-slide scanned samples, is a promising technique for teaching and diagnostic purposes. The aim of our study was to evaluate the interobserver and intraobserver variation in low-grade squamous lesions, HR HPV status bias, and the use of whole-slide scanned digital cervical cytology slides.

METHODS

Fifteen expert cytopathologists evaluated 71 digitalized ThinPrep slides (31 atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US], 21 negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy, and 19 low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion cases). HR HPV data were accessible only in the second round.

RESULTS

In interobserver analysis, Kendall's coefficient of concordance was 0.52 in the first round and 0.58 in the second round. Fleiss' kappa values were 0.29 in the first round and 0.31 in the second round. In the ASC-US category, Fleiss kappa increased from 0.19 to 0.22 in the second round and the increase was even higher expressed by Kendall's coefficient: from 0.42 to 0.52. In intraobserver analysis, personal scores were higher in the second round.

CONCLUSIONS

The interobserver and intraobserver variability in low-grade squamous lesions was within fair agreement values in the present study, in line with previous works. The comparison of two rounds showed that expert cytopathologists are generally unbiased by the knowledge of HR HPV data, but that being informed of the HR HPV status leads to a better agreement. Stain quality and back discomfort were highlighted as factors affecting digital cytopathology use.

Rapid elimination of cervical cancer while maintaining the harms and benefits ratio of cervical cancer screening: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and intensifying screening expedite cervical cancer (CC) elimination, yet also deteriorate the balance between harms and benefits of screening. We aimed to find screening strategies that eliminate CC rapidly but maintain an acceptable harms-benefits ratio of screening.

METHODS

Two microsimulation models (STDSIM and MISCAN) were applied to simulate HPV transmission and CC screening for the Dutch female population between 2022 and 2100. We estimated the CC elimination year and harms-benefits ratios of screening for 228 unique scenarios varying in vaccination (coverage and vaccine type) and screening (coverage and number of lifetime invitations in vaccinated cohorts). The acceptable harms-benefits ratio was defined as the number of women needed to refer (NNR) to prevent one CC death under the current programme for unvaccinated cohorts (82.17).

RESULTS

Under current vaccination conditions (bivalent vaccine, 55% coverage in girls, 27.5% coverage in boys), maintaining current screening conditions is projected to eliminate CC by 2042, but increases the present NNR with 41%. Reducing the number of lifetime screens from presently five to three and increasing screening coverage (61% to 70%) would prevent an increase in harms and only delay elimination by 1 year. Scaling vaccination coverage to 90% in boys and girls with the nonavalent vaccine is estimated to eliminate CC by 2040 under current screening conditions, but exceeds the acceptable NNR with 23%. Here, changing from five to two lifetime screens would keep the NNR acceptable without delaying CC elimination.

CONCLUSIONS

De-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts leads to little or no delay in CC elimination while it substantially reduces the harms of screening. Therefore, de-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts should be considered to ensure acceptable harms-benefits ratios on the road to CC elimination.

Shift in harms and benefits of cervical cancer screening in the era of HPV screening and vaccination: a modelling study

Objective

To calculate the changes in harms and benefits of cervical cancer screening over the first three screening rounds of the Dutch high‐risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) screening programme.

Design

Microsimulation study.

Setting

Dutch hrHPV screening programme; women are invited for screening every 5 or 10 years (depending on age and screening history) from age 30 to 65.

Population

Partly vaccinated population of 100 million Dutch women.

Methods

Microsimulation model MISCAN was used to estimate screening effects. Sensitivity analyses were performed on test characteristics and attendance.

Main outcome measures

Harms (screening tests, unnecessary referrals, treatment‐related health problems), benefits (CIN2⁺ diagnoses) and programme efficiency (number needed to screen [NNS]) over the first (period 2017–2021), second (period 2022–2026) and third (period 2027–2031) rounds of hrHPV‐based screening.

Results

The number of screening tests and CIN2⁺ diagnoses decreased from the first to the second round (−25.8% and −23.6%, respectively). In the third screening round, these numbers decreased further, albeit only slightly (−2.7% and −5.3%, respectively). NNS to detect a CIN2⁺ remained constant over the rounds; however, it increased in younger age groups while decreasing in older age groups.

Conclusion

Both harms and benefits of hrHPV screening decreased over the first screening rounds. For younger women, the efficiency would decrease, whereas longer screening intervals would lead to increased efficiency in older women. Programme efficiency overall remained stable, showing the importance of longer intervals for low‐risk women.

Tweetable abstract:

Cervical cancer screening: both harms and benefits of hrHPV screening will decrease in the future.

Cervical cancer screening: both harms and benefits of hrHPV screening will decrease in the future.

Performance of DNA methylation-based biomarkers in the cervical cancer screening program of northern Portugal: A feasibility study

Cervical cancer remains a health concern. Effective screening programs are critical to reduce the incidence and mortality. High-risk HPV (hr-HPV) testing as primary screening tool discloses high sensitivity but suboptimal specificity. Adequate triage tests to reduce unnecessary colposcopy referrals and overdiagnosis/overtreatment are crucial. Hence, we aimed to validate a panel of DNA methylation-based markers as triage test for women hr-HPV+ in the population-based Regional Cervical Cancer Screening Program of Northern Portugal. Firstly, CADM1, MAL, FAM19A4 and hsa-miR124-2 promoter methylation levels were assessed by multiplex QMSP in a testing set of 402 FFPE tissue samples (159 normal samples and 243 cervical lesions, including 39 low-grade intraepithelial squamous lesions [LSIL], 59 high-grade intraepithelial squamous lesions [HSIL] and 145 cancerous lesions). Then, preliminary validation was performed in 125 hr-HPV+ cervical scrapes (including 59 normal samples, 30 LSIL, 34 HSIL and 2 cancerous lesions). Higher MAL^me , FAM19A4^me and hsa-miR124-2^me methylation levels were disclosed in histological HSIL or worse (HSIL+) in testing set. Individually, markers depicted over 86% specificity for HSIL+ detection. In validation set, all these genes significantly differed between histological HSIL+ and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or less. In combination, these markers reached 74% specificity and 61% sensitivity for identification of histological HSIL+. We concluded that host gene methylation might constitute a useful referral triage tool of hr-HPV+ women enrolled in the Cervical Cancer Screening Program of Northern Portugal.

Impact of disruptions and recovery for established cervical screening programs across a range of high-income country program designs, using COVID-19 as an example: A modelled analysis

COVID-19 has disrupted cervical screening in several countries, due to a range of policy-, health-service and participant-related factors. Using three well-established models of cervical cancer natural history adapted to simulate screening across four countries, we compared the impact of a range of standardised screening disruption scenarios in four countries that vary in their cervical cancer prevention programs. All scenarios assumed a 6- or 12-month disruption followed by a rapid catch-up of missed screens. Cervical screening disruptions could increase cervical cancer cases by up to 5-6%. In all settings, more than 60% of the excess cancer burden due to disruptions are likely to have occurred in women aged less than 50 years in 2020, including settings where women in their 30s have previously been offered HPV vaccination. Approximately 15-30% of cancers predicted to result from disruptions could be prevented by maintaining colposcopy and precancer treatment services during any disruption period. Disruptions to primary screening had greater adverse effects in situations where women due to attend for screening in 2020 had cytology (vs. HPV) as their previous primary test. Rapid catch-up would dramatically increase demand for HPV tests in 2021, which it may not be feasible to meet because of competing demands on the testing machines and reagents due to COVID tests. These findings can inform future prioritisation strategies for catch-up that balance potential constraints on resourcing with clinical need.

Molecular markers for cervical cancer screening

INTRODUCTION

Cervical cancer remains a significant healthcare problem, notably in low- to middle-income countries. While a negative test for hrHPV has a predictive value of more than 99.5%, its positive predictive value is less than 10% for CIN2+ stages. This makes the use of a so-called triage test indispensable for population-based screening to avoid referring women, that are ultimately at low risk of developing cervical cancer, to a gynecologist. This review will give an overview of tests that are based on epigenetic marker panels and protein markers.

AREAS COVERED

There is a medical need for molecular markers with a better predictive value to discriminate hrHPV-positive women that are at risk of developing cervical cancer from those that are not. Areas covered are epigenetic and protein markers as well as health economic considerations in view of the fact that most cases of cervical cancer arise in low-to-middle-income countries.

EXPERT OPINION

While there are biomarker assays based on changes at the nucleic acid (DNA methylation patterns, miRNAs) and at the protein level, they are not widely used in population screening. Combining nucleic acid-based and protein-based tests could improve the overall specificity for discriminating CIN2+ lesions that carry a low risk of progressing to cervical cancer within the screening interval from those that carry an elevated risk. The challenge is to reduce unnecessary referrals without an undesired increase in false-negative diagnoses resulting in cases of cervical cancer that could have been prevented. A further challenge is to develop tests for low-and middle-income countries, which is critical to reduce the worldwide burden of cervical cancer.