Estimates of the current and future burden of cancer attributable to active and passive tobacco smoking in Canada

Geographical Disparities in Colorectal Cancer in Canada: A Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prominent contributor to cancer-related mortality in Canada. This review paper sheds light on the research conducted in Canada to scrutinize the influence of economicfactors. The review seeks to uncover notable disparities in Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality rate across diverse Canadian populations, including Indigenous communities, rural dwellers, and individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES).

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent investigations reveal significant disparities in CRC incidence, mortality, and treatment outcomes among various demographic groups in Canada. Indigenous peoples, rural populations, and those with lower SES are particularly vulnerable to these disparities. Access to screening and specialized cancer care is notably limited for these marginalized populations, exacerbating existing health inequities. Furthermore, emerging evidence underscores the potential influence of dietary factors on CRC risk, highlighting the importance of tailored prevention and treatment strategies. The findings underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions aimed at enhancing access to CRC screening and specialized cancer care for disadvantaged populations in Canada. By addressing these disparities, more individuals can undergo timely screening and receive early-stage diagnoses, thereby improving prognosis and ultimately saving lives. However, to effectively bridge these gaps, further research is imperative to elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving these disparities and to identify and implement effective interventions.

Examining the Association between Abstinence from Smoking and Healthcare Costs among Patients with Cancer

Continuous tobacco use in patients with cancer is linked to substantial healthcare costs due to increased risks and complications, whereas quitting smoking leads to improved treatment outcomes and cost reductions. Addressing the need for empirical evidence on the economic impact of smoking cessation, this study examined the association between smoking cessation and healthcare cost utilization among a sample of 930 patients with cancer treated at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center's Tobacco Research and Treatment Program (TRTP). Applying conditional quantile regression and propensity scores to address confounding, our findings revealed that abstinence achieved through the TRTP significantly reduced the median cost during a 3-month period post-quitting by $1,095 [β = -$1,095, P = 0.007, 95% confidence interval (CI), = (-$1,886 to -$304)]. Sensitivity analysis corroborated these conclusions, showing a pronounced cost reduction when outlier data were excluded. The long-term accrued cost savings from smoking cessation could potentially offset the cost of participation in the TRTP program, underscoring its cost effectiveness. An important implication of this study is that by reducing smoking rates, healthcare systems can more efficiently allocate resources, enhance patient health outcomes, and lessen the overall cancer burden.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

This study emphasizes the dual impact of smoking cessation programs in patients with cancer: quitting smoking and reducing healthcare costs. It highlights the importance of integrating cessation programs into cancer prevention strategies, ensuring both individual health benefits and broader, system-wide economic efficiencies. See related Spotlight, p. 197.

The Nova Scotia Community Cancer Matrix: A geospatial tool to support cancer prevention

Globally, cancer is a leading cause of death and morbidity and its burden is increasing worldwide. It is established that medical approaches alone will not solve this cancer crisis. Moreover, while cancer treatment can be effective, it is costly and access to treatment and health care is vastly inequitable. However, almost 50% of cancers are caused by potentially avoidable risk factors and are thus preventable. Cancer prevention represents the most cost-effective, feasible and sustainable pathway towards global cancer control. While much is known about cancer risk factors, prevention programs often lack consideration of how place impacts cancer risk over time. Maximizing cancer prevention investment requires an understanding of the geographic context for why some people develop cancer while others do not. Data on how community and individual level risk factors interact is therefore required. The Nova Scotia Community Cancer Matrix (NS-Matrix) study was established in Nova Scotia (NS), a small province in Eastern Canada with a population of 1 million. The study integrates small-area profiles of cancer incidence with cancer risk factors and socioeconomic conditions, to inform locally relevant and equitable cancer prevention strategies. The NS-Matrix Study includes over 99,000 incident cancers diagnosed in NS between 2001 and 2017, georeferenced to small-area communities. In this analysis we used Bayesian inference to identify communities with high and low risk for lung and bladder cancer: two highly preventable cancers with rates in NS exceeding the Canadian average, and for which key risk factors are high. We report significant spatial heterogeneity in lung and bladder cancer risk. The identification of spatial disparities relating to a community's socioeconomic profile and other spatially varying factors, such as environmental exposures, can inform prevention. Adopting Bayesian spatial analysis methods and utilizing high quality cancer registry data provides a model to support geographically-focused cancer prevention efforts, tailored to local community needs.

Coordinating smoking cessation treatment with menstrual cycle phase to improve quit outcomes (MC-NRT): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Women experience greater difficulty achieving smoking abstinence compared to men. Recent evidence suggests that hormonal fluctuations during different phases of the menstrual cycle can contribute to lower smoking abstinence rates following a quit attempt among women. However, these findings are limited by small sample sizes and variability among targeted smoking quit dates. This clinical trial aims to clarify whether targeting the quit date to the follicular or luteal phase of the menstrual cycle can improve smoking abstinence.

METHODS

Participants will enroll in an online smoking cessation program providing nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and behavioral support. We will randomize 1200 eligible individuals to set a target quit date: (1) during the mid-luteal phase, (2) during the mid-follicular phase, or (3) 15-30 days after enrollment with no regard to the menstrual cycle phase (usual practice). Participants will receive a 6-week supply of combination NRT consisting of a nicotine patch plus their choice of nicotine gum or lozenge. Participants will be instructed to start using NRT on their target quit date. Optional behavioral support will consist of a free downloadable app and brief videos focusing on building a quit plan, coping with cravings, and relapse prevention, delivered via e-mail. Smoking status will be assessed via dried blood spot analysis of cotinine concentration at 7 days, 6 weeks, and 6 months post-target quit date.

DISCUSSION

We aim to overcome the limitations of previous studies by recruiting a large sample of participants and assigning target quit dates to the middle of both the follicular and luteal phases. The results of the trial can further elucidate the effects of the menstrual cycle on smoking cessation outcomes and whether it is beneficial to combine menstrual cycle phase timing strategies with accessible and low-cost NRT.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05515354. Registered on August 23, 2022.

The future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers attributable to modifiable behaviours in Australia: a pooled cohort study

BACKGROUND

We quantified the individual and joint contribution of contemporaneous causal behavioural exposures on the future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers and their subtypes and assessed whether these burdens differ between population groups in Australia, as such estimates are currently lacking.

METHODS

We combined hazard ratios from seven pooled Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries with exposure prevalence from the 2017-2018 National Health Survey to estimate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death.

RESULTS

Current and past smoking explain 35.2% (95% CI = 11.7-52.4%), current alcohol consumption exceeding three drinks/day 15.7% (95% CI = 0.9-28.4%), and these exposures jointly 41.4% (95% CI = 19.8-57.3%) of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas in Australia. Current and past smoking contribute 38.2% (95% CI = 9.4-57.9%), obesity 27.0% (95% CI = 0.6-46.4%), and these exposures jointly 54.4% (95% CI = 25.3-72.1%) of oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Overweight and obesity explain 36.1% (95% CI = 9.1-55.1%), current and past smoking 24.2% (95% CI = 4.2-40.0%), and these exposures jointly 51.2% (95% CI = 26.3-67.8%) of stomach cardia cancers. Several population groups had a significantly higher smoking-attributable oesophageal cancer burden, including men and those consuming excessive alcohol.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking is the leading preventable behavioural cause of oesophageal cancers and overweight/obesity of stomach cancers.

Characterizing occupational radon exposure greater than 100 Bq/m3 in a highly exposed country

Radon is an established lung carcinogen concentrating in indoor environments with importance for many workers worldwide. However, a systematic assessment of radon levels faced by all workers, not just those with direct uranium or radon exposure, has not previously been completed. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of workers exposed to radon, and the level of exposure (> 100-200 Bq/m³, 200-400 Bq/m³, 400-800 Bq/m³, and > 800 Bq/m³) in a highly exposed country (Canada). Exposures among underground workers were assessed using the CAREX Canada approach. Radon concentrations in indoor workplaces, obtained from two Canadian surveys, were modelled using lognormal distributions. Distributions were then applied to the susceptible indoor worker population to yield the number of exposed workers, by occupation, industry, province, and sex. In total, an estimated 603,000 out of Canada's 18,268,120 workers are exposed to radon in Canada. An estimated52% of exposed workers are women, even though they comprise only 48% of the labour force. The majority (68%) are exposed at a level of > 100-200 Bq/m³. Workers are primarily exposed in educational services, professional, scientific and technical services, and health care and social assistance, but workers in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction have the largest number of exposed workers at high levels (> 800 Bq/m³). Overall, a significant number of workers are exposed to radon, many of whom are not adequately protected by existing guidelines. Radon surveys across multiple industries and occupations are needed to better characterize occupational exposure. These results can be used to identify exposed workers, and to support lung cancer prevention programs within these groups.

Lessons from Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Smoking Cessation Programs for Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

Smoking among patients diagnosed with cancer poses important health and financial challenges including reduced effectiveness of expensive cancer therapies. This study explores the value of smoking cessation programs (SCPs) for patients already diagnosed with cancer. It also identifies conditions under which SPCs may be wise investments.

METHODS

Using a simplified decision analytic model combined with insights from a literature review, we explored the cost-effectiveness of SCPs.

RESULTS

The findings provide insights about the potential impact of cessation probabilities among cancer patients in SCPs and the potential impact of SCPs on cancer patients' lives.

CONCLUSION

The evidence suggests that there is good reason to believe that SCPs are an economically attractive way to improve outcomes for cancer patients when SCPs are offered in conjunction with standard cancer care.

Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Cancers are leading causes of mortality and morbidity, with smoking being recognized as a significant risk factor for many types of cancer. We aimed to report the cancer burden attributable to tobacco smoking by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and cancer type in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

The burden of cancers attributable to smoking was reported between 1990 and 2019, based upon the Comparative Risk Assessment approach used in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2019 there were an estimated 2.5 million cancer-related deaths (95% UI: 2.3 to 2.7) and 56.4 million DALYs (51.3 to 61.7) attributable to smoking. The global age-standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to smoking per 100,000 decreased by 23.0% (-29.5 to -15.8) and 28.6% (-35.1 to -21.5), respectively, over the period 1990-2019. Central Europe (50.4 [44.4 to 57.6]) and Western Sub-Saharan Africa (6.7 [5.7 to 8.0]) had the highest and lowest age-standardized death rates, respectively, for cancers attributable to smoking. In 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of cancers attributable to smoking was highest in Greenland (2224.0 [1804.5 to 2678.8]) and lowest in Ethiopia (72.2 [51.2 to 98.0]). Also in 2019, the global number of DALYs was highest in the 65-69 age group and there was a positive association between SDI and the age-standardized DALY rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study clearly illustrate that renewed efforts are required to increase utilization of evidence-based smoking cessation support in order to reduce the burden of smoking-related diseases.

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2022

BACKGROUND

Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022.

METHODS

We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984-1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2018). Mortality data (1984-2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population.

RESULTS

An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces.

INTERPRETATION

Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.

Associations of exposure to secondhand smoke with hypertension risk and blood pressure values in adults

Background

The effects of environmental chemical exposure on blood pressure (BP) have been confirmed, but the association between exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) and hypertension risk and BP in the general population remains unknown.

Methods

Cross-sectional associations between SHS exposure and hypertension risk and BP values were evaluated using data for subjects who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999–2016. Logistic regression and linear regression were performed after adjusting for age, sex, race, alcohol consumption, poverty-to-income ratio (PIR), body mass index (BMI), estimated glomerular filtration rate, physical activity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and NHANES cycle. Restricted cubic spline models were created to display the potential nonlinear association between SHS and BP levels.

Results

Higher risk of hypertension was found at the highest SHS concentrations (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04, 1.24, P for trend = 0.007). Additionally, SHS exposure had a strong positive association with systolic blood pressure (SBP) but was negatively associated with diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Furthermore, the nonlinear model result showed a significant association between SHS and SBP (P = 0.017); however, the nonlinear model result was not significant for SHS or DBP.

Conclusions

Our results suggest a potential association between high SHS exposure and the risk of hypertension. Further research is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12199-021-01009-0.

Spatiotemporal variability of exposure to secondhand smoke in Iran during 2009-2020: a systematic review

The present study aimed to provide a systematic review of studies on the prevalence of secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure in the Iran population as a serious indoor health hazard. A literature review of studies that considered SHS exposure, available in multiple electronic databases including Web of Science, PubMed, and Scopus published 2009-2020 in English and two Persian databases (SID and Magiran), was carried out following the PRISMA recommendations. A total of 55 studies were included based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria and the quality assessment. The results showed no specific decrease in the prevalence of exposure to secondhand smoke in Iran; however, it appeared that the exposure has been increasing. Distribution of studies in terms of age group revealed that most studies (38%) investigated adults (more than 18 years old), while 34% of the studies considered less than 18 years of age group and a single article considered infants (6-24 months). Based on the present study results, a large population of Iran was exposed to SHS. Moreover, based on Iran's STEPs 2016 (Stepwise Non-communicable Diseases Risk Factors Survey in Iran) study, the overall prevalence of SHS exposure at home (57.5%) was higher than in workplaces (49.2%). The results of the present study recommended that protection measures should be comprehensive in terms of exposure places, and since the exposure prevalence in some provinces was higher than the others, it is especially important to consider the local measures and cultural aspects in SHS control programs.

Evaluation of lifestyle risk factor differences in global patterns of breast cancer mortality and DALYs during 1990-2017 using hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Statistical evidence on breast cancer (BC) burden related to health and lifestyle risk factors are valuable for health policy-making. This study aimed to compare the trends in BC mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to various health and life style risk factors among different world's regions according to sociodemographic index (SDI).

METHODS

We extracted the age-standardized and age-specific rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC during 1990-2017 using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 global burden of disease (GBD) study. We performed hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis to estimate age- and time-related trends, and effect of interactions between different risk factors on BC risk.

RESULTS

During 1990-2017, the age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC was increasing in less developed and under developing regions. The risk factor alcohol use [RR 51.3(95%CI 17.6-149.7)] and smoking [5.9(2.0-17.3)] were significantly highly contributor to increased mortality risk in high SDI region. Whereas in the low-SDI region, the greater mortality risk was observed in alcohol use [6.9(2.4-17)] and high FPG [2.7(1.5-3.1)]-related deaths. The adjusting for individual age, period, and risk factor effects, the significant interaction effect between metabolic risk factors and older ages were observed in all SDI regions and globally as well. However, an increasing cohort effect of alcohol, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and smoking-related death, and DALYs was observed during 1960 to 1985 cohorts among low-SDI regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs due to BC has been increasing in low-SDI region. Alcohol consumption, high body mass index (BMI), high FPG, and smoking are potential BC risk factors particularly in older ages that leading to adverse disease outcomes. Therefore, rapid aging and prevalence of these prospective risk factors may strengthen the increasing mortality and DALYs of BC in low-SDI region. Hence, preventive measure along with strict action against concerned BC risk factors should be taken to reduce the disease burden specifically among lower-SDI regions.

Estimates of future cancer mortality attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada

OBJECTIVES

Modifiable lifestyle, environmental, and infectious risk factors associated with cancer impact both cancer incidence and mortality at the population level. Most studies estimating this burden focus on cancer incidence. However, because these risk factors are associated with cancers of disparate mortality rates, the burden associated with cancer incidence could differ from cancer mortality. Therefore, estimating the cancer mortality attributable to these risk factors provides additional insight into cancer prevention. Here, we estimated future cancer deaths and the number of avoidable deaths in Canada due to modifiable risk factors.

METHODS

The projected cancer mortality data came from OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool. These data were applied to the methodological framework that we previously used to estimate the population attributable risks and the potential impact fractions of modifiable risk factors on Canadian cancer incidence.

RESULTS

We estimated that most cancer deaths will be attributed to tobacco smoking with an average of 27,900 deaths annually from 2024 to 2047. If Canada's current trends in excess body weight continue, cancer deaths attributable to excess body weight would double from 2786 deaths in 2024 to 5604 deaths in 2047, becoming the second leading modifiable cause of cancer death. Applying targets to reduce these risk factors, up to 34,600 cancer deaths could be prevented from 2024 to 2047.

CONCLUSION

Our simulated results complement our previous findings on the cancer incidence burden since decreasing the overall burden of cancer will be accelerated through a combination of decreasing cancer incidence and improving survival outcomes through improved treatments.

The Future Burden of Head and Neck Cancers Attributable to Modifiable Behaviors in Australia: A Pooled Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Estimates of future burden of cancer attributable to current modifiable causal exposures can guide cancer prevention. We quantified future head and neck cancer burden in Australia attributable to individual and joint causal exposures, and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups.

METHODS

We estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and head and neck cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models from pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries and estimated exposure prevalence from the 2017 to 2018 Australian National Health Survey. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups.

RESULTS

Contemporary levels of current and former smoking contribute 30.6% (95% CI, 22.7%-37.8%), alcohol consumption exceeding two standard drinks per day 12.9% (95% CI, 7.6%-17.9%), and these exposures jointly 38.5% (95% CI, 31.1%-45.0%) to the future head and neck cancer burden. Alcohol-attributable burden is triple and smoking-attributable burden is double for men compared with women. Smoking-attributable burden is also at least double for those consuming more than two alcoholic drinks daily or doing less than 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous activity weekly, and for those aged under 65 years, unmarried, with low or intermediate educational attainment or lower socioeconomic status, compared with their counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

Two-fifths of head and neck cancers in Australia are preventable by investment in tobacco and alcohol control.

IMPACT

Targeting men and other identified high-burden subgroups can help to reduce head and neck cancer burden disparities.

Impact of tobacco control policies implementation on future lung cancer incidence in Europe: An international, population-based modeling study

BACKGROUND

Despite recent trends in declining smoking rates, tobacco smoking remains the most preventable cause of cancer in Europe. We aimed to estimate numbers and proportions of future lung cancer cases that could be potentially prevented over a 20-year period if countries in Europe were to achieve a comprehensive implementation of tobacco control policies.

METHODS

Historical data from population-based cancer incidence (or mortality) was used to predict sex-specific lung cancer incidence for 30 European countries up to 2037. Hypothetical country-specific smoking prevalence that would be expected if countries would have achieved the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies (defined by the maximum total score of the Tobacco Control Scale, TCS) was estimated by combining national prevalence data on current smoking and data on the status of implementation of key tobacco control policies. Resulting numbers and proportions of potentially preventable lung cancer cases were estimated taking into account latency periods between changes in smoking prevalence and excess cancer risks.

FINDINGS

In Europe, an estimated 1·65 million lung cancer cases (21·2%, 19·8% in men and 23·2% in women) could be prevented over a 20-year period with the highest-level implementation of tobacco control policies. Large variation was seen in European regions and countries reflecting the current level of tobacco control, with the largest potential for prevention in Western Europe (24·5%), Southern Europe (23·1%) and Eastern Europe (22·5%), and the lowest but still substantial potential for further prevention in Northern Europe (12·5%). In women, among whom lung cancer incidence is expected to increase, we estimated somewhat larger proportions of preventable lung cancer cases ranging from 9·9 to 33·9% as compared to men (8·6-28·5%). In the final year of study period (2037), these proportions even exceed 50% in women for some countries.

INTERPRETATION

Improved and expanded implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies at the most comprehensive level could reduce future lung cancer incidence considerably across Europe.

FUNDING

The study was funded by the German Cancer Aid ("Deutsche Krebshilfe"), grant number 70112097.

Prediction of cancer survival for cohorts of patients most recently diagnosed using multi-model inference

Despite a large choice of models, functional forms and types of effects, the selection of excess hazard models for prediction of population cancer survival is not widespread in the literature. We propose multi-model inference based on excess hazard model(s) selected using Akaike information criteria or Bayesian information criteria for prediction and projection of cancer survival. We evaluate the properties of this approach using empirical data of patients diagnosed with breast, colon or lung cancer in 1990-2011. We artificially censor the data on 31 December 2010 and predict five-year survival for the 2010 and 2011 cohorts. We compare these predictions to the observed five-year cohort estimates of cancer survival and contrast them to predictions from an a priori selected simple model, and from the period approach. We illustrate the approach by replicating it for cohorts of patients for which stage at diagnosis and other important prognosis factors are available. We find that model-averaged predictions and projections of survival have close to minimal differences with the Pohar-Perme estimation of survival in many instances, particularly in subgroups of the population. Advantages of information-criterion based model selection include (i) transparent model-building strategy, (ii) accounting for model selection uncertainty, (iii) no a priori assumption for effects, and (iv) projections for patients outside of the sample.

Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking-Related Cancer Incidence in Germany 2020 to 2050-A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Germany is known for its weak tobacco control. We aimed to provide projections of potentially avoidable cancer cases under different tobacco control policy intervention scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate numbers and proportions of potentially avoidable cancer cases under different policy intervention scenarios (cigarette price increases, comprehensive marketing ban, and plain packaging), we calculated cancer site-specific potential impact fractions by age, sex, and year of study period (2020-2050), considering latency periods between reduction in smoking prevalence and manifestation in declining cancer excess risks. To obtain estimates of future incident case numbers, we assumed a continuation of recent smoking trends, and combined German cancer registry data with forecasted population sizes, published effect sizes, and national daily smoking prevalence data.

RESULTS

Over a 30-year horizon, an estimated 13.3% (men 14.0% and women 12.2%) of smoking-related cancer cases could be prevented if a combination of different tobacco control policies were to be implemented in Germany, with repeated price increases being the most effective single policy (men 8.5% and women 7.3%). Extensive sensitivity analyses indicated that the model is fairly robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the expected cancer incidence in Germany could be considerably reduced by implementing tobacco control policies as part of a primary cancer prevention strategy.

IMPACT

Our straightforward modeling framework enables a comparison of the impact of different health policy measures. To further accelerate the currently observed tentative trend of declining smoking prevalence in Germany and thereby curtail smoking-related cancer incidence, there is a great need to urgently intensify efforts in tobacco control.

Passive Smokers' Support for Stronger Tobacco Control in Indonesia

Secondhand smoke exposure in Indonesia is high, especially compared to other Southeast Asian countries. Passive smoking leads to negative impacts on health and socio-economic well-being. Therefore, increasing the price of cigarettes and, thereby, increasing barriers to access to cigarettes could be an effective way to reduce smoking prevalence and protect people from second-hand smoke. This study aims to assess passive smokers' support for cigarette price increases in Indonesia. We perform a quantitative analysis with a cross-sectional design. The data were obtained through phone-based interviews of 1000 respondents aged 18 and older in Indonesia. Only 596 nonsmokers were included to be further analyzed in this study. This study found that 44.1% respondents have at least one family member who smokes. We considered the respondents' age, gender, education level, employment, and the number of people living in the respondent's household that are exposed to passive smoking. Our results demonstrate that passive smokers support stronger tobacco control such as increasing cigarette prices, regulating smoking behavior using a religious approach (Fatwa), and applying more effective pictorial health warnings.