Gun shows and universal background check laws across state lines

Individual, firearm, and purchasing characteristics associated with risk of firearm-related violent crime arrest: a nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Firearm purchasing records offer a potentially important administrative data source to identify individuals at elevated risk of perpetrating firearm violence. In this study, we describe individual, firearm, and transaction characteristics of purchasers in California who were arrested for a firearm-related violent crime (FRV) as compared to the general population of registered purchasers in the state.

METHODS

Relying on a dataset of all individuals with transaction records in California (1996-2021), linked to criminal records (1980-2021), we enrolled a cohort of individuals for whom we could capture the legal firearm purchase history. We identified those arrested for FRV post purchase, and using incidence density sampling, gender-matched cases to ten purchasers (controls) who remained "at risk" at the time the case was arrested. We focused on the purchase closest in time prior to the arrest ("index" purchase). We implemented conditional logistic regression and included models with controls for individual- and community-level demographics, as well as interactions between firearm and purchasing characteristics and criminal history.

RESULTS

The cohort included 1,212,144 individuals, of whom 6153 were arrested for FRV (0.5%). Cases were matched to 61,530 controls to form the study sample. The largest risk factor was a prior criminal history: purchasers had 5.84 times the risk of FRV if they had a prior arrest within three years of the index purchase (CI 5.44-6.27). Several transaction and firearm characteristics were also associated with FRV. For example, risk increased if the firearm was redeemed at a pawn shop (aIRR: 1.37, CI 1.05-1.77) and decreased if the transaction was a registered private party transfer (vs. retail purchase) (aIRR: 0.83, CI 0.76-0.90) or the firearm was a bolt action firearm (vs. semi-automatic) (aIRR: 0.64, CI 0.51-0.79). In the interaction models, most of the purchase and firearm features only remained significant among those with no criminal history.

CONCLUSIONS

Given limited data on firearm transactions, there has been little research on whether the type of firearm an individual purchases or the nature of the purchase might serve as indicators of risk for FRV. We found several transaction and firearm features were associated with risk of FRV. Notably, these features provided little evidence of additional risk for those with a prior criminal record.

Interstate Highway Connections and Traced Gun Transfers Between the 48 Contiguous United States

Importance

Interstate gun flow has critical implications for gun violence prevention, as gun transfers across state lines can undermine local gun control policies.

Objective

To identify possible gun trafficking routes along interstate highways in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This repeated-measures, ecological, cross-sectional study used data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, to examine associations between interstate connections via 13 highways that each spanned at least 1000 miles and interstate traced gun transfer counts for the 48 contiguous United States. Analyses were completed in November 2023.

Exposures

Characteristics of the origin states and the transportation connections between the destination state and the origin states.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was the total count of guns used in crimes in each destination state per year that were originally purchased in the origin state. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models were used to examine associations between the count of guns used in crime traced to interstate purchases and interstate highway connections between origin and destination states.

Results

Between 2010 and 2019, 526 801 guns used in crimes in the contiguous 48 states were traced to interstate purchases. Northbound gun transfers along the Interstate 95 corridor were greater than expected to New Jersey (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.80; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.01-7.68) and Maryland (IRR, 3.07; 95% CrI, 1.09-8.61); transfers were similarly greater along Interstate 15 southbound, Interstate 25 southbound, Interstate 35 southbound, Interstate 75 northbound and southbound, Interstate 10 westbound, and Interstate 20 eastbound and westbound.

Conclusions and Relevance

This repeated-measures, ecological, cross-sectional study identified that guns used in crimes traced to interstate purchases moved routinely between states along multiple major transportation routes. Interstate gun transfers are a major contributor to gun crime, injury, and death in the US. National policies and interstate cooperation are needed to address this issue.