Globalization in road safety: explaining the downward trend in road accident rates in a single country (Israel)

Short-term and long-term effects of GDP on traffic deaths in 18 OECD countries, 1960-2011

BACKGROUND

Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality.

METHODS

We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates.

RESULTS

The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (p<0.001), and a long-term decrease equal to -1.59 (p<0.001). However, period-specific analyses revealed a structural break implying that the procyclical effect outweighs the protective effect in the period prior to 1976, whereas the reverse is true for the period 1976-2011.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in GDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s.

Road safety forecasts in five European countries using structural time series models

OBJECTIVE

Modeling road safety development is a complex task and needs to consider both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed. The objective of this research is to apply structural time series models for obtaining reliable medium- to long-term forecasts of road traffic fatality risk using data from 5 countries with different characteristics from all over Europe (Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Norway, and Switzerland).

METHODS

Two structural time series models are considered: (1) the local linear trend model and the (2) latent risk time series model. Furthermore, a structured decision tree for the selection of the applicable model for each situation (developed within the Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis [DaCoTA] research project, cofunded by the European Commission) is outlined. First, the fatality and exposure data that are used for the development of the models are presented and explored. Then, the modeling process is presented, including the model selection process, introduction of intervention variables, and development of mobility scenarios.

RESULTS

The forecasts using the developed models appear to be realistic and within acceptable confidence intervals. The proposed methodology is proved to be very efficient for handling different cases of data availability and quality, providing an appropriate alternative from the family of structural time series models in each country.

CONCLUSIONS

A concluding section providing perspectives and directions for future research is presented.

State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece

In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis.

Risky driving behaviors for road traffic accident among drivers in Mekele city, Northern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Due to its perception as a disease of development, road traffic accident and related injuries tend to be under recognized as a major health problem in developing countries. However, majority of the world's fatalities on the roads occur in low income and middle income countries. Since the main cause of road traffic accident is attributed to human risky behaviors, it is important to identify significant factors for risky behaviors of drivers.

METHODS

A quantitative cross-sectional study with a sample size of 350 drivers was conducted in April 2011. The study was conducted among Taxi, Bajaj (three tire vehicles) and private owned car drivers. After proportion to size allocation for Taxi (75), Baja (103) and private owned car (172) drivers, we used systematic random sampling method to identify illegible study subjects. Data was collected with face to face interview using a pretested questioner. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate analysis was done using SPSS version 16.

RESULTS

The mean age of the respondents was 28.7 (SD 9.9). Majority were 339 (96.9%) males. Significant number of the study subjects 233 (66.6%) had risky driving behaviors. More than a quarter 100 (28.6%) had less knowledge about basic traffic signs. Majority of drivers 181 (51.7%) had negative attitude towards risky driving behaviors. Significant percent of them 148 (42.3%) had a habit of using mobile phone while driving vehicle and 28 (9.7%) had experience of driving after drinking alcohol. All the Bajaj, 97(62.6%) house car and 58(37.4%) taxi unfasten their seat belt while driving. Majority 303 (86.6%) followed the recommended speed limit of driving. About 66 (18.9%) of them had experience of punishment or warning by traffic polices in the previous 1 year and 77 (22%) ever had car accident while driving.

CONCLUSIONS

Drivers of secondary education and with high average monthly income were more likely to have risky driving behavior. Having supportive attitude towards risky driving behaviors and not getting advice about risky driving from significant others increases the likelihood of developing risky driving behavior. Interventions targeted at developing negative attitude towards risky driving behaviors on drivers and significant others should be implemented to bring positive behavior change. The interventions need to be segmented with educational status and income.

Road traffic injuries in the People's Republic of China, 1951-2008

OBJECTIVE

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) have become the leading cause of injury deaths in China. This article analyzed the trends in all crashes, nonfatal injuries, and fatalities from road traffic crashes from 1951 to 2008 and compared the crash frequency, crash severity, and crash patterns by provinces, types of road, and injured road users.

METHODS

Road traffic crash data were obtained from the Bureau of Traffic Management at the Ministry of Public Security and National Bureau of Statistics of China. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Over the past 5 decades, road traffic injuries have increased substantially in China. From 1951 to 2008, the total number of road traffic crashes, nonfatal injuries, and fatalities increased by 43-fold, 58-fold, and 85-fold, respectively. Linear regression suggested a significant decline of 30.1 percent (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.8-35.3) in the mortality rate per 100,000 people during the period 2002 to 2008. From 2004 to 2008, road traffic crash mortality rate per 100,000 people varied greatly in China from the lowest of 3.0 in Henan in 2008 to the highest of 21.7 in Xizang in 2004. RTIs in China disproportionally affected the following populations: males, persons 21 to 50 years of age, pedestrians, and motorcyclists/bicyclists. Adults aged more than 65 years accounted for approximately 10 percent of total road traffic deaths. Road types and RTIs severity were closely related; highways were associated with greater mortality rates.

CONCLUSION

Road traffic injuries have become a burgeoning public health problem in China. Programs need to be developed to prevent nonfatal injuries and fatalities caused by road traffic crashes in this emerging country.

When may road fatalities start to decrease?

INTRODUCTION

The comparative analysis of macroscopic trends in road safety has been a popular research topic. The objective of this research is to propose a simple and, at the same time, reliable multiple regime model framework for international road safety comparisons, allowing for the identification of slope changes of personal risk curves and respective breakpoints.

METHOD

The trends of road traffic fatalities in several EU countries have been examined through the temporal evolution of elementary socioeconomic indicators, namely motorized vehicle fleet and population, at the country level.

RESULTS

Piece-wise linear regression models have been fitted, using a methodology that allows the simultaneous estimation of all slopes and breakpoints. The number and location of breakpoints, as well as the slope of the connecting trends, vary among countries, thus indicating different road safety evolution patterns.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

Macroscopic analysis of road accident trends may be proved beneficial for the identification of best examples and the implementation of appropriate programmes and measures, which will lead to important benefits for the society and the economy through the reduction of road fatalities and injuries. Best performing countries and the related programmes and measures adopted may concern several safety improvements at the processes of the road, the vehicle and the insurance industries.

CONCLUSIONS

Lessons from the analysis of the past road safety patterns of developed countries provide some insight into the underlying process that relates motorization levels with personal risk and can prove to be beneficial for predicting the road safety evolution of developing countries that may have not yet reached the same breakpoints. Furthermore, the presented framework may serve as a basis to build more elaborate models, including more reliable exposure indicators (such as vehicle-km driven).

Exploring differential trends in severe and fatal child pedestrian injury in New South Wales, Australia (1997-2006)

The study explores trends in severe and fatal child pedestrian injuries in New South Wales (NSW), over the 10-year period 1997-2006, in comparison to adults and for various subgroups. Data on pedestrian injury (reported as fatalities or hospitalisations) were obtained from the Traffic Accident Database System (TADS; Roads and Traffic Authority of New South Wales) which captures road traffic events reported to police, and from the NSW Admitted Patients Data Collection (APDC) which captures all hospital inpatient separations. Annual percentage changes in injury counts and rates were compared using Poisson regression. A substantial drop in the pedestrian injury rate was observed; however, the rate of decline was steeper for children (aged less than 15 years) than for adults. The drop in child pedestrian injury was manifest in both the police report data and the hospital admission data. The annual percentage decrease was significantly greater for boys than for girls, and the three major urban centres compared with elsewhere in the state. No differences were detected in the annual rate decrease between school days and non-school days (a proxy for safe school zones), or between different road types (a proxy for restricted speed limits). Past research suggests that injury rate reductions are not solely due to decreased exposure. There remains, however, limited data on the extent of pedestrian mobility. Differences in relative reduction in pedestrian injury rates suggest a differential benefit arising from road safety initiatives.

Long-term effects of repealing the national maximum speed limit in the United States

OBJECTIVES

We examined the long-term effects of the 1995 repeal of federal speed limit controls on road fatalities and injuries in fatal crashes.

METHODS

We used a Poisson mixed-regression model to assess changes in the number of fatalities and injuries in fatal crashes between 1995 and 2005 on rural interstates, where all US states have raised speed limits since the repeal, as well as on urban interstates and noninterstate roads, where many states have raised speed limits.

RESULTS

We found a 3.2% increase in road fatalities attributable to the raised speed limits on all road types in the United States. The highest increases were on rural interstates (9.1%) and urban interstates (4.0%). We estimated that 12 545 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8739, 16 352) and 36 583 injuries in fatal crashes (95% CI = 29 322, 43 844) were attributable to increases in speed limits across the United States.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduced speed limits and improved enforcement with speed camera networks could immediately reduce speeds and save lives, in addition to reducing gas consumption, cutting emissions of air pollutants, saving valuable years of productivity, and reducing the cost of motor vehicle crashes.

Raised speed limits, case fatality and road deaths: a six year follow-up using ARIMA models

BACKGROUND

In November 1993, the Israeli government increased the speed limit for all vehicles from 90 to 100 km per hour on a total of 115 km of its three major interurban highways. DESIGN/ SETTING: We use ARIMA time series intervention models to evaluate the effect of the raise in speed limit on fatalities, serious injuries, and case-fatality for years 1988-1999. Motor vehicle crash data came from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel.

RESULTS

Between January 1988 and December 1999, a total of 6029 persons were killed and 45 616 were seriously injured on roads in Israel. For all roads combined, the time series ARIMA model indicated that there were 4.69 more deaths per month (p<0.001), or 347 more than expected in the post-intervention period. Case-fatality rate (CFR) on all roads combined rose significantly (p<0.001). Modified case-fatality rate (CFRS) showed an increase of 2.5 deaths per 100 serious casualties (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of raised speed limits was immediate and sustained. The largest increase in deaths occurred on interurban roads but a spillover effect was observed on urban roads as well. The increases in deaths and case-fatality rates persisted six years after the speed limit change despite major countermeasures and increasing congestion throughout the period of follow-up.

Diagnostic analysis of the logistic model for pedestrian injury severity in traffic crashes

This study attempts to evaluate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties in traffic crashes and to explore the factors that contribute to mortality and severe injury, using the comprehensive historical crash record that is maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. The injury, demographic, crash, environmental, geometric, and traffic characteristics of 73,746 pedestrian casualties that were involved in traffic crashes from 1991 to 2004 are considered. Binary logistic regression is used to determine the associations between the probability of fatality and severe injury and all contributory factors. A consideration of the influence of implicit attributes on the trend of pedestrian injury risk, temporal confounding, and interaction effects is progressively incorporated into the predictive model. To verify the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and logistic regression diagnostics are conducted. It is revealed that there is a decreasing trend in pedestrian injury risk, controlling for the influences of demographic, road environment, and other risk factors. In addition, the influences of pedestrian behavior, traffic congestion, and junction type on pedestrian injury risk are subject to temporal variation.

Driver's views and behaviors about safety in China--what do they NOT know about driving?

Driving safety has become an extremely severe problem in China due to rapid motorization. Unless more effective measures are taken, the fatality risk and the total fatalities due to road traffic accidents are expected to continue to increase. Therefore, focus group discussions were conducted to explore driver attitudes and safe driver characteristics. The results were then compared with a similar study conducted with US drivers. Although similarities were found, differences were of more importance. The Chinese drivers concentrate more on driving skills and capabilities, whereas the US drivers concentrate more on practical safe driving guidelines. Then direct field observations were conducted for the Chinese drivers to empirically investigate the issues discovered. The use of safety belts, running lights, headlights, and turn signals were observed to investigate the drivers' behaviors. Results show that the safety belt use ratio is about 64%, running light use is nearly zero during rainy and snowy weather, headlights use after sunset is substantially delayed, and only about 40% of drivers use turn signals to indicate their intention to change lanes. These findings indicate that the authorities need to take appropriate countermeasures to change the views of the Chinese drivers regarding driving safety and their unsafe driving behaviors. Improvement of training content and methods as well as police enforcement would be recommended.

An evaluation of a supplementary road safety package

A Supplementary Road Safety Package (SRSP) was developed in New Zealand in 1995/1996 to supplement the compulsory breath test (CBT) and speed camera programmes introduced in 1993. A major feature of the package was the use of emotion and shock advertising campaigns not only to affect high risk driving attitudes and behaviours towards speeding and drink-driving but also to encourage the use of safety belts. Furthermore, the SRSP also emphasised targeting enforcement to these three areas. This package continued for 5 years. This paper estimates the effect of the package on road trauma. The analysis shows that the Package made substantial impact on road safety and saved over 285 lives over the 5-year period.

Raised speed limits, speed spillover, case-fatality rates, and road deaths in Israel: a 5-year follow-up

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the 5-year, nationwide impact on road deaths of the raise in the speed limit (November 1, 1993) on 3 major interurban highways in Israel from 90 to 100 kph.

METHODS

We compared before-after trends in deaths as well as case fatality-an outcome independent of exposure (defined as vehicle-kilometers traveled).

RESULTS

After the raise, speeds rose by 4.5%-9.1%. Over 5 years, there was a sustained increase in deaths (15%) and case fatality rates (38%) on all interurban roads. Corresponding increases in deaths (13%) and case fatality (24%) on urban roads indicated "speed spillover."

CONCLUSIONS

Immediate increases in case fatality predicted and tracked the sustained increase in deaths from increased speeds of impact. Newtonian fourth power models predicted the effects of "small" increases in speed on large rises in case fatality rates. Countermeasures and congestion reduced the impact on deaths and case-fatality rates by more than half.

Medical treatment and traffic fatality reductions in industrialized countries

Reductions in traffic-related fatalities in developed industrialized countries have been substantial in the last 30 years. Most analyses have attributed this reduction to changes in vehicle design, better road design, increased seat-belt use, and reductions in driving under the influence of alcohol. This paper analyses the impact of improvements in medical treatment and technology. Data from the International Road and Traffic Accident Database (IRTAD), which includes all developed countries, was used in combination with Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Health Care data. Using proxy measures to account for improvements in medical treatment and technology it is found that these proxy variables are significant and capture much of the residual time trend in the data when they are omitted. Changes in age cohorts, such as fewer young people, also have contributed to a reduction in fatalities. These results suggest that medical technology improvements are associated with reductions in traffic-related fatalities over time.

An empirical investigation of European drivers' self-assessment

PROBLEM

Evaluating motorists through self-assessment has attracted much interest in recent literature, which is mainly due to the profound impact various parameters of self-assessment can have on the way motorists deal with hazardous traffic situations. Much of the previous work in this area has been hampered both by the lack of adequate sample sizes and, because of the small samples, the evaluation methodologies used.

METHOD

This paper extends previous research in two significant directions: (a) it uses the SARTRE 2 database, which provides more than 17,000 questionnaires from most European countries; and (b) it employs the ordered probit modeling approach, which recognizes the latent nature of self-assessment and explicitly links its dimensions to a set of relevant explanatory variables such as age, gender, region, and income.

RESULTS

The results indicate that drivers who rate themselves as both more dangerous and faster than others are, generally, younger men, with higher incomes, break the speed limit more frequently, avoid wearing seat belts, and have been involved in more accidents in the past than other drivers. Interestingly, more experienced and more highly educated drivers assess their driving as less dangerous, but admit to driving faster than other drivers.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

The methodology used and the results obtained can be a significant help in identifying drivers with high and low self-assessment ratings, which can be useful in planning and implementing road safety information campaigns.

Road traffic accidents in the United Arab Emirates: trends of morbidity and mortality during 1977-1998

High rates of serious road traffic accidents (RTAs) have been reported for several Arabian Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE). in recent years. This study aims to describe quantitatively the morbidity and mortality from RTAs in the UAE, to identify their trends during the period 1977-1998, to compare the results with those of developed countries, and to evaluate the information available on possible causes with a view to identifying the most useful direction for future research. Data were obtained from UAE's police and health sources and, for international comparison, from WHO Statistics reports and the published literature. Overall and cause-specific fatality and injury rates of RTAs were calculated. Estimates of trends were achieved by using linear regression. The characteristics of road users injured or killed were also analysed. The results revealed that during the period 1977-1998, the rates of RTAs per 100,000 population and per 100,000 motor vehicles declined in the UAE by a trend component of -56.3 (P < 0.001: R2 = 0.69) and -521.8 (P<0.001; R2=0.92), respectively. RTA fatality and injury rates based on the same denominators also declined by -1.1 (P<0.001; R2 = 0.56) and -13.3 (P < 0.001; R2 = 0.47); and by -3.8 (P < 0.02; R2 = 0.23) and - 90.0 (P < 0.001; R2 = 0.59), respectively. Paradoxically, however, except for a short period (1977-1985), a steady increase in the risk of injury and death in each RTA accompanied these declines. Between 1985 and 1998 the severity rate (the ratio of fatalities and injuries per 1,000 RTAs) more than tripled in the UAE. The UAE's rates were high when compared with a number of selected countries. The cause for the increasing severity of RTAs is not clear but the most likely cause could lie in speeding, careless driving, the changing vehicle mix on the roads and the standard of immediate care available for victims. Further investigation is essential and will require close collaboration between police and health authorities.

The effect of traffic policing on road safety in Israel

We use panel data on road sections to investigate the effect of traffic policing on non-urban road accidents in Israel. Traffic policing is measured indirectly by the number of police reports issued for driving offences. Our main findings are: (1) only large-scale enforcement has any measurable effect on road accidents while small-scale enforcement has no apparent effect. (2) The enforcement effect is slightly larger in the long run than it is in the short-run. (3) The effect of enforcement tends to dissipate rapidly after the dosage of enforcement is reduced. (4) Enforcement has no effect on fatal road accidents. (5) The evidence that the effect of policing in one road section spills over onto other road sections is weak.