Economic insecurity exposure and cognitive function in late life

OBJECTIVES

This study took the State-owned Enterprises (SOE) reform from 1996 to 2002 in China as a natural experiment to explore the consequences of economic insecurity exposure during early-adulthood and mid-adulthood on cognitive function in later life.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS), 2014 and 2015. CHARLS is a nationally representative survey covering 28 provinces in China. A total of 4536 urban dwellers born earlier than 1971 (aged 25 years old and above at the start of the SOE reform in 1996) were included in our analyses. Using province-year-level economic loss from the layoffs, we examined the impact of economic insecurity exposure on the cognitive function score by using a difference-in-differences model with 1996-2002 as the cut-off.

RESULTS

Individuals exposed to economic insecurity have significantly decreased cognitive function, in which a 1% point increase in expected economic loss would decrease the cognitive function score by 0.09 (95% CI: -0.17 to -0.01). Given that the average intensity of expected economic loss was 11.59% and the mean score of cognitive function was 21.26, exposure to the SOE reforms led to an average decrease in the cognitive function score by at least 4.91%.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing cognitive health surveillance and psychological counselling may be important for preventing cognitive decline among those experiencing economic insecurity.

Sexual orientation, gender expression and socioeconomic status in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status (SES) is a fundamental contributor to health, yet it is rarely examined relative to gender expression, particularly gender non-conformity and sexual orientation.

METHODS

We use data from 11 242 Wave V respondents (aged 33-44) in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (2016-2018) to examine associations between socially assigned gender expression, sexual orientation and SES, in logistic and multinomial regression models stratified by sex assigned at birth.

RESULTS

Among both women and men a general pattern of heightened risk for lower SES among gender non-conforming sexual minorities relative to gender conforming heterosexuals was observed. Gender non-conforming heterosexuals were also at elevated risk of lower SES compared with their conforming heterosexual peers.

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic differences by sexual orientation and gender expression have important implications for understanding health disparities among gender non-conforming sexual minorities and their gender conforming heterosexual counterparts.

Systems science methods in public health: what can they contribute to our understanding of and response to the cost-of-living crisis?

BACKGROUND

Many complex public health evidence gaps cannot be fully resolved using only conventional public health methods. We aim to familiarise public health researchers with selected systems science methods that may contribute to a better understanding of complex phenomena and lead to more impactful interventions. As a case study, we choose the current cost-of-living crisis, which affects disposable income as a key structural determinant of health.

METHODS

We first outline the potential role of systems science methods for public health research more generally, then provide an overview of the complexity of the cost-of-living crisis as a specific case study. We propose how four systems science methods (soft systems, microsimulation, agent-based and system dynamics models) could be applied to provide more in-depth understanding. For each method, we illustrate its unique knowledge contributions, and set out one or more options for studies that could help inform policy and practice responses.

RESULTS

Due to its fundamental impact on the determinants of health, while limiting resources for population-level interventions, the cost-of-living crisis presents a complex public health challenge. When confronted with complexity, non-linearity, feedback loops and adaptation processes, systems methods allow a deeper understanding and forecasting of the interactions and spill-over effects common with real-world interventions and policies.

CONCLUSIONS

Systems science methods provide a rich methodological toolbox that complements our traditional public health methods. This toolbox may be particularly useful in early stages of the current cost-of-living crisis: for understanding the situation, developing solutions and sandboxing potential responses to improve population health.

Causal links between socioeconomic status, leisure sedentary behaviours and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a multivariable two-sample Mendelian randomisation study

INTRODUCTION

We implemented a two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses to estimate the causal effect of socioeconomic status and leisure sedentary behaviours on gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD).

METHODS

Independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with socioeconomic status and leisure sedentary behaviours at the genome-wide significance level from the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit (MRC-IEU) UK Biobank were selected as instrumental variables. Summary-level data for GERD were obtained from a recent publicly available genome-wide association involving 78 707 GERD cases and 288 734 controls of European descent. Univariable and multivariable two-sample MR analyses, using inverse variance weighted method for primary analyses, were performed to jointly evaluate the effect of socioeconomic status and leisure sedentary behaviours on GERD risk.

RESULTS

Three socioeconomic status, including educational attainment (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.69; p<0.001), average total household income before tax (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.90; p=0.009) and Townsend Deprivation Index at recruitment (OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.06 to 2.41; p=0.026), were independently and predominately responsible for the genetic causal effect on GERD. In addition, one leisure sedentary behaviour, such as time spent watching television, was independently and predominately responsible for genetic causal effect on GERD (OR 3.74; 95% CI 2.89 to 4.84; p<0.001). No causal effects of social activities and driving on GERD were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically predicted Townsend Deprivation Index at recruitment and leisure watching television were causally associated with increased risk of GERD, and age at completion of full-time education and average total household income before tax were causally associated with decreased risk of GERD.

Income and economic productivity loss associated with comorbidity: longitudinal analysis of linked individual-level data for a whole country

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the income loss from having two or more diseases, over and above the independent and separate effects of having a single disease.

METHODS

We used linked health income data from 2006-2007 to 2015-2016 for 25-64 years, for the entire New Zealand population. Fixed effects OLS regression was used to estimate within-individual income loss for diseases separately, and to estimate if having two or more diseases together resulted in reduced (subadditive) or additional (superadditive) income impacts (relative to adding together the income impacts for each disease when experienced singly).

RESULTS

Of the 169 comorbidity pairs for both sexes, 28 (17%) had a statistically significant superadditive (n=14) or subadditive (n=14) effect of having two diseases. The combined total income gain from deleting all diseases and comorbidities was US$2.269 billion (95% CI US$$2.125 to US$2.389 billion), or a 3.61% (95% CI 3.38% to 3.80%) increase in income. Of this, 8.8% or US$200 million (95% CI US$193 to US$207 million) was attributable to a tendency for comorbidity interactions to increase income loss more than expected for common disease pairings.

CONCLUSIONS

This national longitudinal study found that disease is associated with income loss, but most of this impact is due to the distinct and independent impact of separate diseases. Nevertheless, there was a tendency for two or more diseases to disproportionately increase income loss more than the summed impacts of each of these diseases if experienced singly.

Does urbanicity modify the relationship between a polygenic risk score for depression and mental health symptoms? Cross-sectional evidence from the observational HUNT Study in Norway

BACKGROUND

Research suggests that genetic predisposition for common mental disorders may be moderated by the environment. This study examines whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) for depression is moderated by the level of residential area urbanicity using five symptoms of poor mental health as outcomes.

METHODS

The study sample consisted of 41 198 participants from the 2006-2008 wave of the Norwegian HUNT study. We created a weighted PRS for depression based on 99 variants identified in a recent genome -wide association study. Participants were classified into urban or rural place of residence based on wards that correspond to neighbourhoods. Mixed effects logistic regression models with participants nested in 477 neighbourhoods were specified.

RESULTS

A SD increase in PRS for depression was associated with a small but statistically significant increase in the odds of anxiety, comorbid anxiety and depression and mental distress. Associations for depression were weaker and not statistically significant. Compared with urban residents, rural resident had higher odds for reporting poor mental health. Genetic propensity for depression was higher for residents of urban than rural areas, suggesting gene-environment correlation. There was no sign of effect modification between genetic propensity and urbanicity for depression, anxiety, comorbid anxiety and depression, or mental distress.

CONCLUSION

The PRS predicted small but significant odds of anxiety, comorbid anxiety and depression and mental distress, but we found no support for a differential effect of genetic propensity in urban and rural neighbourhoods for any of the outcomes.

Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users

BACKGROUND

Local authorities in England commission the NHS Health Check programme to invite everyone aged 40-74 years without pre-existing conditions for risk assessment and eventual intervention, if needed. However, the programme's effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity impact remain uncertain.

AIM

To develop a validated open-access flexible web-based model that enables local commissioners to quantify the cost-effectiveness and potential for equitable population health gain of the NHS Health Check programme.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were as follows: (1) co-produce with stakeholders the desirable features of the user-friendly model; (2) update the evidence base to support model and scenario development; (3) further develop our computational model to allow for developments and changes to the NHS Health Check programme and the diseases it addresses; (4) assess the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity of alternative strategies for implementation to illustrate the use of the tool; and (5) propose a sustainability and implementation plan to deploy our user-friendly computational model at the local level.

DESIGN

Co-production workshops surveying the best-performing local authorities and a systematic literature review of strategies to increase uptake of screening programmes informed model use and development. We then co-produced the workHORSE (working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment) model to estimate the health, economic and equity impact of different NHS Health Check programme implementations, using illustrative-use cases.

SETTING

Local authorities in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Stakeholders from local authorities, Public Health England, the NHS, the British Heart Foundation, academia and other organisations participated in the workshops. For the local authorities survey, we invited 16 of the best-performing local authorities in England.

INTERVENTIONS

The user interface allows users to vary key parameters that represent programme activities (i.e. invitation, uptake, prescriptions and referrals). Scenarios can be compared with each other.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Disease cases and case-years prevented or postponed, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, net monetary benefit and change in slope index of inequality.

RESULTS

The survey of best-performing local authorities revealed a diversity of effective approaches to maximise the coverage and uptake of NHS Health Check programme, with no distinct 'best buy'. The umbrella literature review identified a range of effective single interventions. However, these generally need to be combined to maximally improve uptake and health gains. A validated dynamic, stochastic microsimulation model, built on robust epidemiology, enabled service options analysis. Analyses of three contrasting illustrative cases estimated the health, economic and equity impact of optimising the Health Checks, and the added value of obtaining detailed local data. Optimising the programme in Liverpool can become cost-effective and equitable, but simply changing the invitation method will require other programme changes to improve its performance. Detailed data inputs can benefit local analysis.

LIMITATIONS

Although the approach is extremely flexible, it is complex and requires substantial amounts of data, alongside expertise to both maintain and run.

CONCLUSIONS

Our project showed that the workHORSE model could be used to estimate the health, economic and equity impact comprehensively at local authority level. It has the potential for further development as a commissioning tool and to stimulate broader discussions on the role of these tools in real-world decision-making.

FUTURE WORK

Future work should focus on improving user interactions with the model, modelling simulation standards, and adapting workHORSE for evaluation, design and implementation support.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019132087.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 35. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Return on investment of public health interventions: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Public sector austerity measures in many high-income countries mean that public health budgets are reducing year on year. To help inform the potential impact of these proposed disinvestments in public health, we set out to determine the return on investment (ROI) from a range of existing public health interventions.

METHODS

We conducted systematic searches on all relevant databases (including MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; AMED; PubMed, Cochrane and Scopus) to identify studies that calculated a ROI or cost-benefit ratio (CBR) for public health interventions in high-income countries.

RESULTS

We identified 2957 titles, and included 52 studies. The median ROI for public health interventions was 14.3 to 1, and median CBR was 8.3. The median ROI for all 29 local public health interventions was 4.1 to 1, and median CBR was 10.3. Even larger benefits were reported in 28 studies analysing nationwide public health interventions; the median ROI was 27.2, and median CBR was 17.5.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review suggests that local and national public health interventions are highly cost-saving. Cuts to public health budgets in high income countries therefore represent a false economy, and are likely to generate billions of pounds of additional costs to health services and the wider economy.

The impact of changing economic conditions on overweight risk among children in California from 2008 to 2012

BACKGROUND

The recent economic recession represents an opportunity to test whether decreases in economic resources may have deleterious consequences on childhood overweight/obesity risk.

METHODS

We investigated the association between indicators of changing macroeconomic conditions from 2008 to 2012 and overweight/obesity risk among school-aged children in California (n=1 741 712) using longitudinal anthropometric measurements. Multivariate regression, with individual and county fixed effects, was used to examine the effects of annual county-level unemployment and foreclosure rates on risk of child overweight/obesity, overall and among subgroups (race/ethnicity, sex, county-level median household income and county-level urban/rural status).

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2012, ∼38% of children were overweight/obese and unemployment and foreclosure rates averaged 11% and 6.9%, respectively. A 1-percentage point (pp) increase in unemployment was associated with a 1.4 pp (95% CI 1.3 to 1.5) increase in overweight/obesity risk. Therefore, a child of average weight could expect a 14% increase in their body mass index z-score in association with a 1 pp increase in unemployment during the study period. We found some differences in the magnitude of the effects for unemployment among demographic subgroups, with the largest effects observed for unemployment among American Indians and Pacific Islanders.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing children to themselves over time, we provide evidence that increases in county-level unemployment are associated with increased overweight/obesity risk. Given that overweight among children with lower economic resources remains a challenge for public health, these findings highlight the importance of policy-level approaches, which aim to mitigate the impact of decreased resources as economic conditions change.

Short-term and long-term effects of GDP on traffic deaths in 18 OECD countries, 1960-2011

BACKGROUND

Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality.

METHODS

We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates.

RESULTS

The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (p<0.001), and a long-term decrease equal to -1.59 (p<0.001). However, period-specific analyses revealed a structural break implying that the procyclical effect outweighs the protective effect in the period prior to 1976, whereas the reverse is true for the period 1976-2011.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in GDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s.

The costs of inequality: whole-population modelling study of lifetime inpatient hospital costs in the English National Health Service by level of neighbourhood deprivation

Background

There are substantial socioeconomic inequalities in both life expectancy and healthcare use in England. In this study, we describe how these two sets of inequalities interact by estimating the social gradient in hospital costs across the life course.

Methods

Hospital episode statistics, population and index of multiple deprivation data were combined at lower-layer super output area level to estimate inpatient hospital costs for 2011/2012 by age, sex and deprivation quintile. Survival curves were estimated for each of the deprivation groups and used to estimate expected annual costs and cumulative lifetime costs.

Results

A steep social gradient was observed in overall inpatient hospital admissions, with rates ranging from 31 298/100 000 population in the most affluent fifth of areas to 43 385 in the most deprived fifth. This gradient was steeper for emergency than for elective admissions. The total cost associated with this inequality in 2011/2012 was £4.8 billion. A social gradient was also observed in the modelled lifetime costs where the lower life expectancy was not sufficient to outweigh the higher average costs in the more deprived populations. Lifetime costs for women were 14% greater than for men, due to higher costs in the reproductive years and greater life expectancy.

Conclusions

Socioeconomic inequalities result in increased morbidity and decreased life expectancy. Interventions to reduce inequality and improve health in more deprived neighbourhoods have the potential to save money for health systems not only within years but across peoples’ entire lifetimes, despite increased costs due to longer life expectancies.

Ebola, jobs and economic activity in Liberia

Background

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the neighbouring West African countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone represents the most significant setback to the region's development in over a decade. This study provides evidence on the extent to which economic activity declined and jobs disappeared in Liberia during the outbreak.

Methods

To estimate how the level of activity and number of jobs in a given set of firms changed during the outbreak, we use a unique panel data set of registered firms surveyed by the business-development non-profit organisation, Building Markets. We also compare the change in economic activity during the outbreak, across regions of the country that had more versus fewer Ebola cases in a difference-in-differences approach.

Findings

We find a large decrease in economic activity and jobs in all of Liberia during the Ebola outbreak, and an especially large decline in Monrovia. Outside of Monrovia, the restaurants, and food and beverages sectors have suffered the most among the surveyed sectors, and in Monrovia, the construction and restaurant sectors have shed the most employees, while the food and beverages sectors experienced the largest drop in new contracts. We find little association between the incidence of Ebola cases and declines in economic activity outside of Monrovia.

Conclusions

If the large decline in economic activity that occurred during the Ebola outbreak persists, a focus on economic recovery may need to be added to the efforts to rebuild and support the healthcare system in order for Liberia to regain its footing.

Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles

BACKGROUND

As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age, it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counter-intuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association, but cannot explain the association for the older, retired population.

METHODS

Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40-44 years) and older people (70-74 years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950-2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data, accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models.

RESULTS

Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality, especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average, for every 1% increase in gross domestic product, mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p<0.001) and 0.38% for 40-year-old to 44-year-old men (p<0.001). The effect for women is 0.18% for 70-year-olds to 74-year-olds (p=0.012) and 0.15% for 40-year-olds to 44-year-olds (p=0.118).

CONCLUSIONS

In developed countries, mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy, and decrease during downward cycles. This effect is similar for the older and middle-aged population. Traditional explanations as work-stress and traffic accidents cannot explain our findings. Lower levels of social support and informal care by the working population during good economic times can play an important role, but this remains to be formally investigated.

Socioeconomic position and incidence of gastric cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Low socioeconomic position (SEP) has been associated with increased risks of morbidity and mortality from many diseases. We investigated the associations between gastric cancer incidence and education, occupation and income as indicators for SEP.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies on SEP and gastric cancer incidence published from 1966 through February 2013. We used a random-effect model to pool the risk estimates from the individual studies. The relative indexes of inequality (RIIs) with their 95% CIs were used as summary estimates. We stratified the analysis by SEP indicators, sex, country's income group, geographical area, level of adjustment for an established risk factor, publication year, study design, type of control and length of follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 1549 citations, 36 studies met our inclusion criteria. We observed an increased risk of gastric cancer among the lowest SEP categories in education (RII=2.97; 95% CI 1.923 to 4.58), occupation (RII=4.33; 95% CI 2.57 to 7.29) and combined SEP (RII=2.64; 95% CI 1.05 to 6.63) compared with the highest SEP categories. Although the association between the incidence of gastric cancer and the level of income is evident, it did not reach a statistically significant level (RII=1.25; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.68).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the risk of gastric cancer incidence is higher among low SEP groups.