Neurohormones and oxidative stress in nonischemic cardiomyopathy: relationship to survival and the effect of treatment with amlodipine

Pharmacological interventions for heart failure in people with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Approximately half of people with heart failure have chronic kidney disease (CKD). Pharmacological interventions for heart failure in people with CKD have the potential to reduce death (any cause) or hospitalisations for decompensated heart failure. However, these interventions are of uncertain benefit and may increase the risk of harm, such as hypotension and electrolyte abnormalities, in those with CKD.

OBJECTIVES

This review aims to look at the benefits and harms of pharmacological interventions for HF (i.e., antihypertensive agents, inotropes, and agents that may improve the heart performance indirectly) in people with HF and CKD.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Register of Studies through 12 September 2019 in consultation with an Information Specialist and using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials of any pharmacological intervention for acute or chronic heart failure, among people of any age with chronic kidney disease of at least three months duration.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently screened the records to identify eligible studies and extracted data on the following dichotomous outcomes: death, hospitalisations, worsening heart failure, worsening kidney function, hyperkalaemia, and hypotension. We used random effects meta-analysis to estimate treatment effects, which we expressed as a risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane tool. We applied the GRADE methodology to rate the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

One hundred and twelve studies met our selection criteria: 15 were studies of adults with CKD; 16 studies were conducted in the general population but provided subgroup data for people with CKD; and 81 studies included individuals with CKD, however, data for this subgroup were not provided. The risk of bias in all 112 studies was frequently high or unclear. Of the 31 studies (23,762 participants) with data on CKD patients, follow-up ranged from three months to five years, and study size ranged from 16 to 2916 participants. In total, 26 studies (19,612 participants) reported disaggregated and extractable data on at least one outcome of interest for our review and were included in our meta-analyses. In acute heart failure, the effects of adenosine A1-receptor antagonists, dopamine, nesiritide, or serelaxin on death, hospitalisations, worsening heart failure or kidney function, hyperkalaemia, hypotension or quality of life were uncertain due to sparse data or were not reported. In chronic heart failure, the effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) (4 studies, 5003 participants: RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.02; I2 = 78%; low certainty evidence), aldosterone antagonists (2 studies, 34 participants: RR 0.61 95% CI 0.06 to 6.59; very low certainty evidence), and vasopressin receptor antagonists (RR 1.26, 95% CI 0.55 to 2.89; 2 studies, 1840 participants; low certainty evidence) on death (any cause) were uncertain. Treatment with beta-blockers may reduce the risk of death (any cause) (4 studies, 3136 participants: RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.79; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty evidence). Treatment with ACEi or ARB (2 studies, 1368 participants: RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.90; I2 = 97%; very low certainty evidence) had uncertain effects on hospitalisation for heart failure, as treatment estimates were consistent with either benefit or harm. Treatment with beta-blockers may decrease hospitalisation for heart failure (3 studies, 2287 participants: RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.05; I2 = 87%; low certainty evidence). Aldosterone antagonists may increase the risk of hyperkalaemia compared to placebo or no treatment (3 studies, 826 participants: RR 2.91, 95% CI 2.03 to 4.17; I2 = 0%; low certainty evidence). Renin inhibitors had uncertain risks of hyperkalaemia (2 studies, 142 participants: RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.49; I2 = 0%; very low certainty). We were unable to estimate whether treatment with sinus node inhibitors affects the risk of hyperkalaemia, as there were few studies and meta-analysis was not possible. Hyperkalaemia was not reported for the CKD subgroup in studies investigating other therapies. The effects of ACEi or ARB, or aldosterone antagonists on worsening heart failure or kidney function, hypotension, or quality of life were uncertain due to sparse data or were not reported. Effects of anti-arrhythmic agents, digoxin, phosphodiesterase inhibitors, renin inhibitors, sinus node inhibitors, vasodilators, and vasopressin receptor antagonists were very uncertain due to the paucity of studies.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The effects of pharmacological interventions for heart failure in people with CKD are uncertain and there is insufficient evidence to inform clinical practice. Study data for treatment outcomes in patients with heart failure and CKD are sparse despite the potential impact of kidney impairment on the benefits and harms of treatment. Future research aimed at analysing existing data in general population HF studies to explore the effect in subgroups of patients with CKD, considering stage of disease, may yield valuable insights for the management of people with HF and CKD.

Long-term mode and timing of premature ventricular complex recurrence following successful catheter ablation

PURPOSE

Catheter ablation of premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) is highly successful and has become the hallmark treatment for symptomatic or highly prevalent cases. However, few studies exist that evaluate the outcomes of ablation and likely mechanisms of PVC recurrence beyond 1 year of follow-up.

METHODS

This study is a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent catheter ablation for symptomatic PVCs with acute procedural success and had clinical follow-up ≥ 12 months.

RESULTS

Forty-four patients (24 women; age 53.5 ± 4.8 years) following acutely successful PVC ablation with long-term follow-up were studied. At a mean of 36 ± 6 months, overall long-term ablation success was 75% (33/44 patients). Notably, recurrence of the targeted PVC focus was low (6.8%, 3/44 patients); the majority of recurrences were from a new source location (18.2%, 8/44 patients). The time course for targeted versus de novo PVC recurrences was significantly different: recurrence of a PVC similar to the targeted PVC morphology occurred at a mean of 5.0 ± 2.0 months, while recurrence of a PVC different from the index case occurred at a mean of 35.8 ± 17.1 months (p = 0.01). Non-ischemic cardiomyopathy was associated with increased risk of PVC recurrence (odds ratio [OR] 14.50 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.92-109.33, p = 0.01)) and was a significant negative prognostic factor in multivariate analysis for PVC recurrence survival (hazard ratio [HR] 4.63, 95% CI 1.03-20.74, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of long-term PVC recurrences occur late in follow-up, at locations remote from the targeted PVC source or sources. Such sites may represent ongoing substrate evolution; additional work is required to determine the precise substrate alterations which promote such arrhythmogenic changes.

Drug and Device Effects on Peak Oxygen Consumption, 6-Minute Walk Distance, and Natriuretic Peptides as Predictors of Therapeutic Effects on Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction

Background—

Although peak oxygen consumption (peak V o 2 ), 6-minute walk distance (6MW), and natriuretic peptides (BNP and NT-proBNP) are predictors of mortality in heart failure (HF) patients, it is not known whether therapy-induced changes in these measures can predict therapeutic effect on mortality. The objective of this analysis is to quantitatively assess the relationship between therapeutic effects on commonly proposed short-term markers in HF trials and therapeutic effects on long-term outcome in patients with HF and left ventricular dysfunction.

Methods and Results—

We identified drug or device therapies for which there exists at least 1 randomized, controlled trial (RCT) assessing mortality over at least 6 months in at least 500 patients. For each of these therapies, we identified RCTs assessing the short-term changes in V o 2 , 6MW, BNP, and NT-proBNP (few of the mortality RCTs assessed the short-term changes in markers). For each intervention, we calculated the odds ratio for mortality (using random effect meta-analysis when necessary), as well as the trial level average drug- or device-induced change in the markers. We assessed the correlation between the odds ratio for death with the placebo-corrected change in the functional parameter or biomarker across the interventions. We identified mortality RCTs of 27 distinct therapies (n=73 267 patients) with a median follow-up of 19 months, that directed the search for RCTs of the effect of those interventions on the functional markers and biomarkers. There were 54 peak V o 2 trials (n=4646 patients), 34 6MW trials (n=6995 patients), 15 BNP trials (n=7233), and 6 NT-proBNP trials (n=1946) included in this analysis. There was no significant correlation between the average therapy-induced placebo-corrected change in peak V o 2 and the odds ratio for mortality ( r =0.158, P =0.26). Increased drug or device-induced average change in 6MW was correlated with increased odds ratio for mortality ( r =0.373, P =0.036). There was no significant correlation between the average therapy-induced, placebo-corrected change in the natriuretic peptides and the odds ratio for mortality (BNP: r =−0.065, P =0.82, NT-proBNP: r =−0.667, P =0.15). There was no apparent relation between change in the functional parameter or biomarker and categorical effect on mortality.

Conclusions—

This analysis, limited to trial level data from different therapeutic eras, suggests that drug- or device-induced effects on peak V o 2 , 6MW, and natriuretic peptides found in short-term trials do not predict the corresponding average long-term therapeutic effects on mortality for patients with HF and left ventricular dysfunction.

Antihypertensive and antioxidant action of amlodipine and vitamin C in patients of essential hypertension

The etiology of essential hypertension includes increased oxidative stress. The role of antihypertensive drug amlodipine as an antioxidant and the benefit of addition of vitamin C, an antioxidant to antihypertensive therapy were studied. Forty male patients of essential hypertension were randomly divided into two groups and treated with 5 mg amlodipine. In addition one group also received 1000 mg vitamin C (as two 500 mg tablets) once daily for three months. Although blood pressure decreased in both groups, the systolic blood pressure in patients given vitamin C was less (126.4 ± 7.47) compared to the other group (130.9 ± 7.27). A decrease in malondialdehyde, an increase in erythrocyte sodium-potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na⁺ K⁺ ATPase) and an increase in the superoxide dismutase levels were observed in both groups. The increase in SOD was statistically more in the patients given vitamin C in addition to amlodipine (0.1717 ± 0.0150 compared to 0.152 ± 0.0219 units/100 ml assay). In spite of the known antihypertensive, antioxidant activity, similarity in correcting endothelial dysfunction independently, giving the two drugs together and early introduction of vitamin C perhaps decreases oxidative stress and augments the antioxidant status. This may prevent further vascular damage due to oxidative stress, leading to a better prognosis in essential hypertension patients.

Profiling B-type natriuretic peptide in a stable heart failure population: a valuable adjunct to care

AIM

To examine the prognostic importance of absolute values and change in values of BNP in patients with stable heart failure (HF).

METHODS

Five-hundred and fifty-nine patients attending a disease management programme were categorized into tertiles of BNP (group 1; ≤ 95 pg/ml, group 2; 96-249 pg/ml and group 3; ≥ 250 pg/ml). A change in BNP between two stable visits was recorded. Patients were followed up for 1 year for death and a composite morbidity measure of HF hospitalization, all-cause hospitalization, unscheduled visits for clinical deterioration(UC) of HF using survival analysis.

RESULTS

The risk of the combined morbidity outcome increased with increasing tertiles of BNP (Log rank = 17.8 (2), p < 0.001). Furthermore, a 50 and 25% increase in BNP predicted morbidity in stable HF patients with an initial BNP > 200 pg/ml (p = 0.02) and > 450 pg/ml (p = 0.03), respectively.

CONCLUSION

In a stable community HF population, an elevated BNP or an increase in BNP predicts an adverse prognosis thereby potentially identifying a population in need of closer clinical follow-up.

Targeting the vicious inflammation-oxidative stress cycle for the management of heart failure

Oxidative stress and inflammation are each implicated independently in the development and progression of heart failure. Their interaction, however, is also evident throughout the process from initial injury to cardiac remodeling and failure. In the failing heart, the linkage between excessive reactive oxygen species (ROS) and the cytokine elaboration is manifested in shared elements and cross-promotion within downstream signaling pathways. In spite of this, the failure of anticytokine immunotherapy and antioxidant therapy, which had previously shown promise, suggests that a more complete perspective of ROS-cytokine interaction is required. The present review focuses on two of the major cytokines that are demonstrably connected to oxidative stress--the pro-inflammatory tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and the anti-inflammatory interleukin-10 (IL-10)--and their interactions in cardiac remodeling and failure. It is proposed that an optimal balance between TNF-alpha and IL-10 may be of crucial importance in mitigating both inflammation and oxidative stress processes leading to heart failure.

Serum oxidative stress level correlates with clinical parameters in chronic systolic heart failure patients

BACKGROUND

Serum oxidative stress (OS) level has an important role in the inflammatory process of heart failure.

HYPOTHESIS

The study was designed to analyze serum OS levels in chronic heart failure (HF) patients and to examine the relation between OS levels and other clinical and prognostic parameters of HF.

METHODS

We studied 82 consecutive chronic symptomatic HF patients with systolic LV dysfunction (ejection fraction <45%). The serum OS level was determined using thermochemiluminescence assay. We compared the serum OS levels with patients' clinical and prognostic parameters.

RESULTS

Higher serum OS levels were associated with higher New York Heart Association class (P = .01), worse renal function (serum urea, creatinine, and creatinine clearance) (P<.001) and higher serum levels of hs-C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (P = .001, P<.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In chronic systolic HF patients, high serum OS levels correlate with advanced disease and known markers of poor prognosis.

Introduction of an NT-proBNP assay to an acute admission unit--a 2-year audit

BACKGROUND

The differential diagnosis of dyspnoea is difficult due to the low predictive value of clinical and laboratory parameters. The elevated levels of NT-proBNP in congestive heart failure may improve diagnostic accuracy. We have evaluated the effect of the introduction of an NT-proBNP assay on hospital length of stay (LOS) and mortality.

METHODS

There were 11,853 AMAU patient episodes in the 22 months study period (March 2005-Dec 2006). An NT-proBNP assay was requested in 657 (5.5%) of these. Comparison between categorical variables such as diagnosis, NT-proBNP testing, LOS, and in-hospital mortality was made using Chi-square tests. Literature review suggested that an NT-proBNP cut-off >or=5000 ng/L should predict acute in-patient mortality. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between such an elevated NT-proBNP level and outcomes.

RESULTS

Of the 396 patients with NT-proBNP <5000 ng/L, 8.1% died compared with 22.5% of the 178 patients dying with values >or=5000 ng/L (p<0.0001). An NT-proBNP >or=5000 ng/L was predictive of both LOS >or=9 days (odds ratios (OR) 1.54 (95% CI 1.06, 2.24: p=0.02) and LOS >or=14 days (OR=1.87 (95% CI 1.29, 2.71: p=0.0009). NT-proBNP requests increased over time, from 2.6% to 8.2% of all patients; the result fell in the diagnostic range for CHF in 60% of requests.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of an NT-proBNP was reflected in an appropriate but rapidly increasing pattern of requests from clinicians. High NT-proBNP levels predicted in-hospital mortality and longer LOS in an acute medical population.

Differences in the incidence of congestive heart failure by ethnicity: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between incident congestive heart failure (CHF) and ethnicity as well as racial/ethnic differences in the mechanisms leading to CHF have not been demonstrated in a multiracial, population-based study. Our objective was to evaluate the relationship between race/ethnicity and incident CHF.

METHODS

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a cohort study of 6814 participants of 4 ethnicities: white (38.5%), African American (27.8%), Hispanic (21.9%), and Chinese American (11.8%). Participants with a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline were excluded. Cox proportional hazards models were used for data analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 4.0 years, 79 participants developed CHF (incidence rate: 3.1 per 1000 person-years). African Americans had the highest incidence rate of CHF, followed by Hispanic, white, and Chinese American participants (incidence rates: 4.6, 3.5, 2.4, and 1.0 per 1000 person-years, respectively). Although risk of developing CHF was higher among African American compared with white participants (hazard ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.1), adding hypertension and/or diabetes mellitus to models including ethnicity eliminated statistical ethnic differences in incident CHF. Moreover, African Americans had the highest proportion of incident CHF not preceded by clinical myocardial infarction (75%) compared with other ethnic groups (P = .06).

CONCLUSIONS

The higher risk of incident CHF among African Americans was related to differences in the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus as well as socioeconomic status. The mechanisms of CHF also differed by ethnicity; interim myocardial infarction had the least influence among African Americans, and left ventricular mass increase had the greatest effect among Hispanic and white participants.

Calcium antagonists for Duchenne muscular dystrophy

BACKGROUND

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a progressive muscle condition starting in childhood, leading to severe disability and a shortened life span. It is due to severe deficiency of the protein dystrophin which performs both structural and signalling roles within skeletal and cardiac myocytes. Calcium accumulates in dystrophic muscle cells and plays a role in cell damage. It has been hypothesised that use of calcium antagonists might reduce this calcium load and its toxic effect on muscle cells.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effects of calcium antagonists on muscle function and muscle strength in people with DMD.

SEARCH STRATEGY

The Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group Trials Register (February 2008), MEDLINE (from January 1950 to March 2008) and EMBASE (from January 1947 to March 2008) were searched. Search terms were 'calcium antagonists' or 'calcium channel blocker' or 'dantrolene' or 'verapamil' or 'nifedipine' or 'flunarizine' or 'diltiazem' or 'amlodipine' or 'nicardipine' and 'Muscular Dystrophy, Duchenne'. Bibliographies in reports of any trials were also searched.

SELECTION CRITERIA

All randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials of any calcium antagonist in people with DMD.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Both authors assessed all identified trials for inclusion in the study on the basis of whether they fulfilled the selection criteria. Both authors extracted data from the trials and assessed the methodological quality. Had there been more than one trial of the same intervention and outcome of sufficient methodological quality, we had planned to undertake a meta-analysis.

MAIN RESULTS

Five randomised or quasi-randomised double-blind trials fulfilled the selection criteria, but were not sufficiently comparable to undertake a meta-analysis. The drugs studied were verapamil (8 participants), diltiazem (56 participants), nifedipine (105 participants) and flunarizine (27 participants). There were limitations in the description of blinding and randomisation, and definition of outcome measures. One trial, using verapamil, showed a difference between groups in muscle force measured by ergometry, but also revealed cardiac side effects. The numbers of people included in the trials were low, and so the studies may not have included enough people for sufficient power to detect small differences in muscle force or function between placebo and control groups. In addition, calcium antagonists were in an early stage of development and some of the second generation drugs that have a better side effect profile, such as amlodipine, have not been studied.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence to show a significant beneficial effect of calcium antagonists on muscle function in DMD.

Prognostic importance of plasma NT-pro BNP in chronic heart failure in patients treated with a β-blocker: Results from the Carvedilol Or Metoprolol European Trial (COMET) trial

BACKGROUND

Plasma levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro BNP) are increased in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Beta-blockers (BB) may influence these levels but it is unclear whether changes in NT-pro BNP reflect concomitant changes in prognosis.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prognostic importance of NT-pro BNP at baseline and during follow-up, in patients in whom beta-blocker therapy is initiated.

METHODS

In COMET, 3029 patients with CHF in NYHA class II-IV and EF<35% were randomised to carvedilol or metoprolol tartrate and were followed for an average of 58 months. Blood samples were collected for the measurement of NT-pro BNP at baseline (n=1559) and during follow-up (n=309).

RESULTS

Baseline plasma concentrations of NT-pro BNP above the median (1242 pg/ml) were associated with higher all-cause mortality (RR 2.77; 95% CI 2.33-3.3, p<0.001). Patients who achieved NT-pro BNP levels<400 pg/ml during follow-up had a lower subsequent mortality (RR 0.32; 95% CI 0.15-0.69, p=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

The plasma concentration of NT-pro BNP is a powerful predictor of mortality in patients with CHF. Patients who achieve an NT-pro BNP of <400 pg/ml subsequent to treatment with a beta-blocker have a favourable prognosis.

The effects of medications on circulating levels of cardiac natriuretic peptides

Circulating cardiac natriuretic peptide levels are being used increasingly in a range of clinical circumstances. Since it is evident that drugs used in the treatment of cardiovascular disorders can modulate natriuretic peptide levels, we here review the literature documenting these effects. Diuretics, blockers of the renin-angiotensin system, vasodilator agents, dopamine-like agonists, amiodarone, and perhaps allopurinol and statins suppress natriuretic peptide levels, most obviously in heart failure. Beta-blockers stimulate natriuretic peptide concentrations in hypertensive subjects, whereas in heart failure they have little effect or are stimulatory in the short term and inhibitory with sustained therapy. Digitalis compounds and aspirin tend to increase natriuretic peptide levels, and calcium channel blocking agents have varying effects depending on the individual drug and duration of administration. The effects of other drugs are less clear. Additional information is needed regarding the effects of medications along with dissection of the role of altered cardiac secretion versus changes in plasma clearance as explanation for drug-induced perturbations in natriuretic peptide concentrations. In the meantime, clinicians need to consider the known effects of medications when interpreting plasma levels of the cardiac natriuretic peptides.

A direct comparison of the natriuretic peptides and their relationship to survival in chronic heart failure of a presumed non-ischaemic origin

The natriuretic peptides have been validated as sensitive and specific markers of left ventricular dysfunction; brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), N-terminal atrial natriuretic peptide (NT-proANP) and N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) elevations have been associated with New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class I-IV heart failure. We directly compared the association of each of these markers with 1-year survival in 173 patients with chronic heart failure of a presumed nonischaemic origin entering the PRAISE-2 Trial, a clinical study which assessed the therapeutic effect of Amlodipine in patients with NYHA Class III and IV heart failure and a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <30%. BNP, NT-proBNP, and NT-proANP levels were all correlated with 1-year mortality by univariate Cox proportional hazards analyses. With respect to multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models containing variables deemed significant in univariate analyses, NT-proANP alone was identified as an independent predictor of 1-year mortality when log-transformed continuous covariates were utilized in the analysis. When the analysis was repeated using dichotomous covariates, NT-proANP remained the most significant predictor of 1-year mortality, followed by NT-proBNP, NYHA classification and BNP. We conclude that all three natriuretic peptides are significant predictors of short-term mortality in subjects with chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) of a presumed nonischaemic origin. Larger prospective studies are required to validate the clinical utility of NT-proANP as a discriminating marker of short-term survival, and to validate proposed cutoffs of approximately 2300 pmol/l for NT-proANP, 1500 pg/ml for NT-proBNP, and 50 pmol/l for BNP as prognostic indicators of adverse short-term outcome.

How well does B-type natriuretic peptide predict death and cardiac events in patients with heart failure: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To assess how well B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) predicts prognosis in patients with heart failure.

DESIGN

Systematic review of studies assessing BNP for prognosis in patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic searches of Medline and Embase from January 1994 to March 2004 and reference lists of included studies.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

We included all studies that estimated the relation between BNP measurement and the risk of death, cardiac death, sudden death, or cardiovascular event in patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients, including initial values and changes in values in response to treatment. Multivariable models that included both BNP and left ventricular ejection fraction as predictors were used to compare the prognostic value of each variable. Two reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data.

DATA SYNTHESIS

19 studies used BNP to estimate the relative risk of death or cardiovascular events in heart failure patients and five studies in asymptomatic patients. In heart failure patients, each 100 pg/ml increase was associated with a 35% increase in the relative risk of death. BNP was used in 35 multivariable models of prognosis. In nine of the models, it was the only variable to reach significance-that is, other variables contained no prognostic information beyond that of BNP. Even allowing for the scale of the variables, it seems to be a strong indicator of risk.

CONCLUSION

Although systematic reviews of prognostic studies have inherent difficulties, including the possibility of publication bias, the results of the studies in this review show that BNP is a strong prognostic indicator for both asymptomatic patients and for patients with heart failure at all stages of disease.

Treating individuals 2. Subgroup analysis in randomised controlled trials: importance, indications, and interpretation

Large pragmatic trials provide the most reliable data about the effects of treatments, but should be designed, analysed, and reported to enable the most effective use of treatments in routine practice. Subgroup analyses are important if there are potentially large differences between groups in the risk of a poor outcome with or without treatment, if there is potential heterogeneity of treatment effect in relation to pathophysiology, if there are practical questions about when to treat, or if there are doubts about benefit in specific groups, such as elderly people, which are leading to potentially inappropriate undertreatment. Analyses must be predefined, carefully justified, and limited to a few clinically important questions, and post-hoc observations should be treated with scepticism irrespective of their statistical significance. If important subgroup effects are anticipated, trials should either be powered to detect them reliably or pooled analyses of several trials should be undertaken. Formal rules for the planning, analysis, and reporting of subgroup analyses are proposed.