Prospective validation of the Baylor bleeding score for predicting the likelihood of rebleeding after endoscopic hemostasis of peptic ulcers

Rebleeding in peptic ulcer bleeding - a nationwide cohort study of 19,537 patients

BACKGROUND

Rebleeding is a frequent complication of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). The associated prognosis remains rather unclear because previous studies generally also included non-ulcer lesions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify predictors for rebleeding; clarify the prognostic consequence of rebleeding; and develop a score for predicting rebleeding.

METHODS

Nationwide cohort study of consecutive patients presenting to hospital with PUB in Denmark from 2006-2014. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors for rebleeding, evaluate the association between rebleeding and 30-day mortality, and develop a score to predict rebleeding. Patients with persistent bleeding were excluded.

RESULTS

Among 19,258 patients (mean age 74 years, mean ASA-score 2.4), 10.8% rebled, and 10.2% died. Strongest predictors for rebleeding were endoscopic high-risk stigmata of bleeding (Odds Ratio (OR): 2.12 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.91-2.36]), bleeding from duodenal ulcers (OR: 1.87 [95% CI: 1.69-2.08]), and presentation with hemodynamic instability (OR: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.38-1.73]). Among patients with all three factors (7.9% of total), 24% rebled, 50% with rebleeding failed endoscopic therapy, and 23% died. Rebleeding was associated with increased mortality (OR: 2.04 [95% CI: 1.78-2.32]). We were unable to develop an accurate score to predict rebleeding.

CONCLUSION

Rebleeding occurs in ∼10% of patients with PUB and is overall associated with a two-fold increase in 30-day mortality. Patients with hemodynamic instability, duodenal ulcers, and high-risk endoscopic stigmata are at highest risk of rebleeding. When rebleeding occurs in such patients, consultation with surgery and/or interventional radiology should be obtained prior to repeat endoscopy.

Predictors of endoscopic intervention in upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients hospitalized for another illness: a multi-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

To characterize variables that may predict the need for endoscopic intervention in inpatients admitted for several causes who during the hospitalization developed acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of inpatients who underwent upper gastro-intestinal endoscopy for acute NVUGIB while hospitalized for other causes from 1 January 2016 to 1 December 2017, was performed. In the primary outcome analysis, patients (N.=14) who underwent endoscopic intervention (group A) were compared to those (N.=87) who did not need for endoscopic intervention (group B). Secondary outcome analysis included patients who had significant endoscopic findings compared to those who did not have them.

RESULTS

Multivariate regression analysis showed that in the primary outcome analysis, two parameters were significant: the number of packed red blood cells (PRBC) units transfused (odds ratio [OR]: 1.5, P=0.01) and Rockall Score (RS) (OR: 1.4, P=0.06) with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.7844. In the secondary outcome analysis, only the use of proton pump inhibitor drugs at admission was associated with protective effect for the development of significant endoscopic findings (odds ratio [OR]: 0.42, P=0.05) with ROC curve of 0.7342.

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalized patients, in case of de novo NVUGIB, the number of PRBC units transfused and RS are predictive of significant endoscopic findings.

Risk stratification in upper and upper and lower GI bleeding: Which scores should we use?

Risk assessment is widely used in upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) however no score accurately predicts all important clinical outcomes. This review discusses the performance of the Rockall score, pre-endsocopy Rockall score, Glasgow-Blatchford score, AIMS-65 and newer scores such as Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva and CANUKA scores. The quality of external validation varies considerably for each score. There is a relative lack of risk scores available for use in lower GI bleeding (LGIB) but recent developments have focussed on the identification of low risk patients. The BLEED, NOBLADS, Strate and Sengupta scores have been developed to predict severe bleeding or death, each with varying performance. The Oakland score has been developed to identify patients at low risk of adverse outcomes who may be suitable for outpatient management. The comparative performance of the LGIB scores and Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS-65 in the prediction of outcomes in LGIB is also discussed.

There Is No Excuse for Mortality Due to Lack of Competency and Training of Paediatric Endoscopists in Gastrointestinal Bleeding Therapy in 2018

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding in children is possibly the last medical emergency which continues to lead to the death of a child due to the lack of competency/clinical judgement of the doctor, as opposed to the disease itself, leading to mortality despite optimum medical intervention. This is unacceptable in any circumstances in 2018. It occurs due to a number of conspiring factors including lack of appreciation of the clinical presentation requiring urgent endoscopic intervention; misapprehension of the urgency of timing required of such an intervention predicated on the severity of the gastrointestinal (GI) bleed; lack of application of a paediatric-specific validated score predicting for such endoscopic intervention; lack of skill in endo-haemostatic intervention techniques by paediatric endoscopists; poor training in such techniques among paediatric endoscopists; paucity of cases with lack of exposure of the paediatric endoscopist regularly to enable skills to be maintained, once acquired; reluctance of adult endoscopists in many centres to support paediatric GI bleeding services. In essence then the paediatric GI community urgently needs to identify centres of excellence to whom these children should be transferred. Transfer is safe in all but the most critical cases once stabilised with transfusion, octreotide/terlipressin and iv proton pump inhibitors. The resources are country-dependent but this is really no excuse. We must not let this parlous state of affairs continue. Solutions are explored in this article and please let this serve as a call to action for all those involved in this continuing debacle in order to save "save-able" lives.

Asia-Pacific working group consensus on non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: an update 2018

Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding remains an important emergency condition, leading to significant morbidity and mortality. As endoscopic therapy is the 'gold standard' of management, treatment of these patients can be considered in three stages: pre-endoscopic treatment, endoscopic haemostasis and post-endoscopic management. Since publication of the Asia-Pacific consensus on non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) 7 years ago, there have been significant advancements in the clinical management of patients in all three stages. These include pre-endoscopy risk stratification scores, blood and platelet transfusion, use of proton pump inhibitors; during endoscopy new haemostasis techniques (haemostatic powder spray and over-the-scope clips); and post-endoscopy management by second-look endoscopy and medication strategies. Emerging techniques, including capsule endoscopy and Doppler endoscopic probe in assessing adequacy of endoscopic therapy, and the pre-emptive use of angiographic embolisation, are attracting new attention. An emerging problem is the increasing use of dual antiplatelet agents and direct oral anticoagulants in patients with cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases. Guidelines on the discontinuation and then resumption of these agents in patients presenting with NVUGIB are very much needed. The Asia-Pacific Working Group examined recent evidence and recommends practical management guidelines in this updated consensus statement.

Scoring systems used to predict mortality in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the ED

OBJECTIVE

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a potentially life-threatening condition that requires rapid assessment in the emergency department (ED). We aimed to compare the performance of the AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford (Blatchford), preendoscopic Rockall (pre-Rockall), and preendoscopic Baylor bleeding (pre-Baylor) scores in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute UGIB in the ED setting.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with acute UGIB who were admitted to the ED ward during 2012-2016 were retrospectively recruited. Data were retrieved from the admission list of the ED using international classification of disease codes via computer registration. The predictive accuracy of these four scores was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) method.

RESULTS

Among the 395 patients included during the study period, the total 30-day mortality rate was 10.4% (41/395). The AIMS65 and Glasgow-Blatchford scores performed better with an AUC of 0.907 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.852-0.963; P<0.001) and 0.870 (95% confidence interval, 0.833-0.902; P<0.001) compared with other scoring systems (preendoscopic Rockall score: AUC, 0.709; 95% CI, 0.635-0.784; P<0.001; preendoscopic Baylor score: AUC, 0.523; 95% CI, 0.472-0.573; P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

In patients with acute UGIB in the ED, the AIMS65 and Glasgow-Blatchford scores are clinically more useful for predicting 30-day mortality than the preendoscopic Rockall and preendoscopic Baylor scores. The AIMS65 score might be more ideal for risk stratification in the ED setting.

Endoscopic management of acute gastrointestinal bleeding in children: Time for a radical rethink

Currently we are no nearer than 10 or 20years ago providing a safe, adequate, and effective round-the-clock endoscopic services for acute life-threatening gastrointestinal bleeding in children. Preventable deaths are occurring still, and it is a tragedy. This is owing to a number of factors which require urgent attention. Skill-mix and the ability of available endoscopists in the UK are woeful. Manpower is spread too thinly and not concentrated in centers of excellence, which is necessary given the relative rarity of the presentation. Adult gastroenterologists are increasingly reticent regarding their help in increasingly litigious times. Recent work on identification of those children likely to require urgent endoscopic intervention has mirrored scoring systems that have been present in adult circles for many years and may allow appropriate and timely intervention. Recent technical developments such as that of Hemospray® may lower the threshold of competency in dealing with this problem endoscopically, thus allowing lives to be saved. Educational courses, mannequin and animal model training are important but so will be appropriate credentialing of individuals for this skill-set. Assessment of competency will become the norm and guidelines on a national level in each country mandatory if we are to move this problem from the "too difficult" to the "achieved". It is an urgent problem and is one of the last emergencies in pediatrics that is conducted poorly. This cannot and should not be allowed to continue unchallenged.

Risk assessment scores for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding and their use in clinical practice

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common cause for emergency admission to hospital representing a significant clinical as well as economic burden. UGIB encompasses a wide range of severities from life-threatening exsanguination to minor bleeding that may not require hospital admission. Patients with UGIB are often initially assessed and managed by junior doctors and non-gastroenterologists. Several risk scores have been created for the assessment of these patients, some requiring endoscopic data for calculation and others that are calculable from clinical data alone. A key question in clinical practice is how to accurately identify patients with UGIB at high risk of adverse outcome. Patients considered high risk are more likely to experience adverse outcomes and will require urgent intervention. In contrast, those patients with UGIB who are considered to be low risk could potentially be managed on an outpatient basis. The Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS) appears best at identifying patients at low risk of requiring intervention or death and therefore may be best for use in clinical practice, allowing outpatient management in low risk cases. There has been some debate as to the optimal GBS cut-off score for safely identifying this low-risk group. Many guidelines suggest that patients with a GBS of zero can be safely managed as outpatients, but more recent studies have suggested that this threshold could potentially be safely increased to ≤1. Most other patients require inpatient endoscopy within 24 h and the full Rockall score remains important for risk assessment following endoscopy, particularly as it includes the endoscopic diagnosis. A minority of patients will require emergency endoscopy following resuscitation, but at present there is no evidence that risk scores can accurately identify this very high-risk group. Studies have shown the latest risk assessment score, the AIMS65, looks promising in the prediction of mortality. However, to date there is no data on the use of the AIMS65 in identifying low risk patients for possible outpatient management.

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding in childhood: development of the Sheffield scoring system to predict need for endoscopic therapy

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a rare and potentially life-threatening condition in childhood. In adults with UGIB, validated scoring systems exist, but these are not applicable to children. The aim of this study was to construct a clinical scoring system to accurately predict the need for endoscopic haemostatic intervention.

METHODS

A retrospective data collection occurred during a 3-year period at a tertiary children's hospital. A total of 69 patients who had had endoscopic assessment were divided into group 1 (no intervention required) and group 2 (intervention required). A wide range of clinical parameters were collated including preexisting conditions, melaena, haematemesis and degree, transfusion requirement, parameters of hypovolaemia, presenting haemoglobin (Hb), Hb drop during 24 hours, platelet count, coagulation indices, liver function tests, and urea/electrolytes.

RESULTS

Parameters that reached statistical significance for endoscopic intervention (group 1 vs group 2) were the presence of significant preexisting condition, melaena, large haematemesis, heart rate (HR) >20 mean HR for age, prolonged capillary refill time (CRT), Hb drop of >20 g/L, need for fluid bolus, need for blood transfusion (Hb < 80 g/L), and need for other blood products. Using these parameters, a number of scoring models were tested, and the most predictive resulted in a scoring system constructed with a total of 24 and a cutoff for intervention of 8. According to this design, there were 4 false-negatives in the interventional group with 3 false-positives in the noninterventional group. This resulted in a positive predictive value (PPV) of 91.18% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76.3-98.04), negative predictive value (NPV) of 88.57% (95% CI 73.24-96.73), sensitivity of 88.7% (95% CI 73.24-96.73), and specificity of 91.18% (95% CI 76.3-98.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In our study population, we were able to formulate a scoring system with reasonable PPV and NPV to predict the need for endoscopic intervention in acute UGIB in children. Prospective evaluation is now required.

Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage: Development of the Severity Score

Background

Emergency endoscopy for every patient with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is not possible in many medical centers. Simple guidelines to select patients for emergency endoscopy are lacking. The aim of the present report is to develop a simple scoring system to classify upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) severity based on patient clinical profiles at the emergency departments.

Methods

Retrospective data of patients with UGIH in a university affiliated hospital were analyzed. Patients were criterion-classified into 3 severity levels: mild, moderate and severe. Clinical and laboratory information were compared among the 3 groups. Significant parameters were selected as indicators of severity. Coefficients of significant multivariable parameters were transformed into item scores, which added up as individual severity scores. The scores were used to classify patients into 3 urgency levels: non-urgent, urgent and emergent groups. Score-classification and criterion-classification were compared.

Results

Significant parameters in the model were age ≥ 60 years, pulse rate ≥ 100/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, blood urea nitrogen ≥ 35 mg/dL, presence of cirrhosis and hepatic failure. The score ranged from 0 to 27, and classifying patients into 3 urgency groups: non-urgent (score < 4, n = 215, 21.2%), urgent (score 4 - 16, n = 677, 66.9%) and emergent (score > 16, n = 121, 11.9%). The score correctly classified 81.4% of the patients into their original (criterion-classified) severity groups. Under-estimation (7.5%) and over-estimation (11.1%) were clinically acceptable.

Conclusions

Our UGIH severity scoring system classified patients into 3 urgency groups: non-urgent, urgent and emergent, with clinically acceptable small number of under- and over-estimations. Its discriminative ability and precision should be validated before adopting into clinical practice.

Second-look endoscopy for bleeding peptic ulcer disease: a decision-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Second-look endoscopy after initial therapeutic endoscopy for bleeding peptic ulcer disease may decrease the risk of rebleeding; however, it is not recommended routinely. Understanding conditions under which second-look endoscopy is beneficial might be useful for clinical decision making.

METHODS

Using a decision model, literature-based probabilities, and Medicare reimbursement costs, we compared routine second-look endoscopy with no second-look endoscopy. We measured rebleeding, need for surgery, hospital mortality, and costs, and calculated the cost to avoid each outcome, expressed as the number needed to treat, along with the cost per outcome prevented.

RESULTS

In the base case, routine second-look endoscopy reduced rebleeding from 16% to 10% (needed to treat=16) but had no effect on other outcomes. The cost to prevent 1 case of rebleeding was nearly $13,000. Threshold analysis revealed a rebleeding threshold of 31% to neutralize the cost difference between routine second-look endoscopy and no routine second-look endoscopy. If routine second-look endoscopy was 100% effective in preventing rebleeding, then the rebleeding threshold for cost neutrality would be 17.5%. When rebleeding risks after the index endoscopy and second-look endoscopy were simultaneously considered, the cost per bleed prevented ranged from a cost savings of $165 when the respective risks were 25% and 5%, to a cost of nearly $33,000 when the risks were 20% and 15%.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that routine second-look endoscopy is not indicated after therapeutic endoscopy for bleeding peptic ulcer disease. However, if rebleeding risk is 31% or greater, then routine second-look endoscopy reduces this risk at no additional cost.

The Glasgow Blatchford score is the most accurate assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Risk scoring systems are used increasingly to assess patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH). There have been comparative studies to identify the best system, but most have been retrospective and included small sample sizes, few patients with severe bleeding and with low mortality. We aimed to identify the optimal scoring system.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study to compare the accuracy of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), an age-extended GBS (EGBS), the Rockall score, the Baylor bleeding score, and the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center predictive index in predicting patients' (1) need for hospital-based intervention or 30-day mortality, (2) suitability for early discharge, (3) likelihood of rebleeding, and (4) mortality. We analyzed the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for each system. The study included 831 consecutive patients admitted with UGIH during a 2-year period.

RESULTS

The GBS and EGBS better predicted patients' need for hospital-based intervention or 30-day mortality than the other systems (AUROC, 0.93; P < .001) and were also better in identifying low-risk patients (sensitivity values, 0.27-0.38; specificity values, 0.099-1). The EGBS identified a significantly higher proportion of low-risk patients than the GBS (P = .006). None of the systems accurately predicted which patients would have rebleeding or patients' 30-day mortality, on the basis of low AUROC and specificity values.

CONCLUSIONS

The GBS accurately identifies patients with UGIH most likely to need hospital-based intervention and also those best suited for outpatient care. The EGBS seems promising but must be validated externally. No scoring system seems to accurately predict patients' 30-day mortality or rebleeding. ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01589250.

Comparison of risk scoring systems in predicting clinical outcome at upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients in an emergency unit

BACKGROUND

Admission Rockall score (RS), full RS, and Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score (GBS) can all be used to stratify the risk in patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in the emergency department (ED). The aim of our study was to compare both admission and full RS and GBS in predicting outcomes at UGIB patients in a Romanian ED.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 229 consecutive patients with UGIB were enrolled in the study. Patients were followed up 60 days after admission to ED because of UGIB episode to determine cases of rebleeding or death during this period. By using areas under the curve (AUCs), we compared the 3 scores in terms of identifying the most predictive score of unfavorable outcomes.

RESULTS

Rebleeding rate was 40.2% (92 patients), and mortality rate was 18.7% (43 patients). For the prediction of mortality, full RS was superior to GBS (AUC, 0.825 vs 0.723; P = .05) and similar to admission RS (AUC, 0.792). Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score had the highest accuracy in detecting patients who needed transfusion (AUC, 0.888) and was superior to both the admission RS and full RS (AUC, 0.693 and 0.750, respectively) (P < .0001). In predicting the need for intervention, the GBS was superior to both the admission RS and full RS (AUC, 0.868, 0.674, and 0.785, respectively) (P < .0001 and P = .04, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The GBS can be used to predict need for intervention and transfusion in patients with UGIB in our ED, whereas full RS can be successfully used to stratify the mortality risk in these patients.

Clinical Risk Characteristics of Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Severity: A Multivariable Risk Analysis

Background

Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is one of the common clinical manifestations encountered in most emergency departments. Patient characteristics indicating UGIH severity in developing countries may be different from those in developed countries. The present study was designed to explore clinical prognostic indicators for UGIH severity.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a university affiliated tertiary hospital in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. Medical folders of patients with UGIH were reviewed. Patients were grouped into 3 severity levels, based on criteria proposed by The American College of Surgeon. Pre-defined prognostic indicators were compared. The prognostic indicators for UGIH severity were analyzed by a multivariable continuation ratio ordinal logistic regression and presented with odds ratios.

Results

From 1,043 eligible medical folders, 984 (94.3%) complete folders were used in analysis. There were 241, 631 and 112 patients in the mild, moderate and severe UGIH groups. Six independent indicators of severe UGIH were, hemoglobin < 100 g/dL (OR = 13.82, 95% CI = 9.40 to 20.33, P < 0.001), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (OR = 11.01, 95% CI = 7.41 to 16.36, P < 0.001), presence of hepatic failure (OR = 5.50, 95% CI = 1.14 to26.64, P = 0.037), presence of cirrhosis (OR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.32 to 3.11, P = 0.001), blood urea nitrogen ≥ 35 mmol/L (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.25 to 2.40, P = 0.001), and pulse rate ≥ 100 per minute (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.21 to 2.45, P = 0.003).

Conclusions

Pulse rate ≥ 100 per minute, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, blood urea nitrogen ≥ 35 mmol/L, presence of cirrhosis and presence of hepatic failure are prognostic indicators for an increase in UGIH severity levels. They are potentially useful in UGIH risk stratification.

A clinical guide to using intravenous proton-pump inhibitors in reflux and peptic ulcers

Intravenous (IV) proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) are potent gastric acid suppressing agents, and their use is popular in clinical practice. Both IV and oral PPIs have similarly short half-lives, and their effects on acid secretion are similar, thus their dosing and dosage intervals appear to be interchangeable. The possible exception is when sustained high pHs are required to promote clot stabilization in bleeding peptic ulcers. Continuous infusion appears to be the only form of administration that reliably achieves these high target pHs. IV PPI is indicated in the treatment of high-risk peptic ulcers, complicated gastroesophageal reflux, stress-induced ulcer prophylaxis, Zollinger-Ellison syndrome, and whenever it is impossible or impractical to give oral therapy. The widespread use of PPIs has been controversial. IV PPIs have been linked to the development of nosocomial pneumonia in the intensive care setting and to spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in cirrhotic patients. This review discusses the use of IV PPI in different clinical scenarios, its controversies, and issues of appropriate use.

Endoscopy for upper gastrointestinal bleeding: is routine second-look necessary?

The benefit of routine repeat endoscopy after endoscopic hemostasis in the management of peptic ulcer bleeding is controversial. The aim of this Review is to evaluate the efficacy of second-look endoscopy by examining the evidence from published, randomized, clinical trials. Outcome measurements included recurrent bleeding, surgery, mortality, blood transfusion, and length of hospital stay. Studies were categorized into those in which endoscopy was performed with endoscopic injection or thermal coagulation. On the basis of existing evidence, second-look endoscopy with heater probe reduces the risk of recurrent bleeding, but has no effect on overall mortality or the need for surgery. Therefore, routine second-look endoscopy cannot be recommended. Selected high-risk patients may benefit from second-look endoscopy, but the use of high-dose intravenous PPIs may obviate the need for this procedure.

Comparison of scoring systems for the prediction of outcomes in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective study

The authors aimed to compare the clinical utility of five scoring systems for the prediction of rebleeding and death in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). A total of 239 consecutive patients who had undergone endoscopy due to nonvariceal UGIB were prospectively investigated on the basis of five scoring systems (Forrest classification, Rockall scoring system, Cedars-Sinai Medical Centre Predict Index, Blatchford scoring system, and Baylor college scoring system). Thirty-five patients (14.6%) experienced rebleeding and 20 patients (8.4%) died. Comparison of the high-risk categories of the four predictive systems showed that the Forrest classification was superior to the others in predicting rebleeding and death. The Cedars-Sinai Medical Centre Predict Index and the Rockall scoring system showed high positive predictive values for predicting rebleeding and death, respectively. We concluded that the Forrest classification was the most useful scoring system for the prediction of rebleeding and death in patients with nonvariceal UGIB.

Endoscopy for upper gastrointestinal bleeding: how urgent is it?

Early endoscopy has been advocated for the management of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, but the optimal timing for early endoscopy is still uncertain. The aim of this Review is to evaluate the optimal timing of early endoscopy by examining the findings of randomized clinical trials and retrospective cohort studies that used comparable outcome measures and have been reported in the literature. Outcome measurements included recurrent bleeding, surgery, mortality, length of hospital stay, and blood transfusion. Studies were categorized into those in which endoscopy was performed within 2-3 h, 6-8 h, 12 h or 24 h of the patient's presentation to hospital. We conclude that early endoscopy aids risk stratification of patients and reduces the need for hospitalization. However, it may also expose additional cases of active bleeding and hence increase the use of therapeutic endoscopy. No evidence exists that very early endoscopy (within a few hours of presentation) can reduce the risk of rebleeding or improve survival.

Dedicated bleed units: should they be advocated?

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGIH) is a common emergency, however, dedicated bleed units only exist in selected hospitals in the UK.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the rebleeding and mortality rate of patients admitted with UGIH to a tertiary centre bleed unit in comparison with the current national standards and earlier unit performance in 1995-1998.

METHODS

A retrospective case note review of demographics, the Rockall scores and final outcome was conducted for all patients admitted to the bleed unit over 24 months.

RESULTS

Two hundred and fifty-five cases were identified with a mean age of 62 years and a median Rockall score of 3. Eighty-two percent of gastroscopies were performed within 24 h. Of these, 29% were undertaken after 5 p.m. Peptic ulcer and varices (15%) were the commonest diagnosis. The rebleeding (12%) and mortality rate (9%) were comparable with that of the units previous audit (P=0.47, 0.51, respectively) and the current national audit (P=0.58, 0.76, respectively). The number of patients requiring surgery has reduced from 6 to 0.4% in our unit over the last 8 years. Preendoscopy and postendoscopy Rockall scores were predictive of rebleeding (P=0.013, 0.045) and mortality (P=0.003, 0.01).

CONCLUSION

This study has shown a consistently low rebleeding and mortality rate in patients with UGIH in a dedicated bleed unit. However there are limitations to the degree of improvements which can be demonstrated due to factors such as age and comorbidity.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding etiology score for predicting variceal and non-variceal bleeding

AIM: To identify clinical parameters, and develop an Upper Gastrointesinal Bleeding (UGIB) Etiology Score for predicting the types of UGIB and validate the score.

METHODS: Patients with UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 72 h were enrolled. Clinical and basic laboratory parameters were prospectively collected. Predictive factors for the types of UGIB were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses and were used to generate the UGIB Etiology Score. The best cutoff of the score was defined from the receiver operating curve and prospectively validated in another set of patients with UGIB.

RESULTS: Among 261 patients with UGIB, 47 (18%) had variceal and 214 (82%) had non-variceal bleeding. Univariate analysis identified 27 distinct parameters significantly associated with the types of UGIB. Logistic regression analysis identified only 3 independent factors for predicting variceal bleeding; previous diagnosis of cirrhosis or signs of chronic liver disease (OR 22.4, 95% CI 8.3-60.4, P < 0.001), red vomitus (OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.8-11.9, P = 0.02), and red nasogastric (NG) aspirate (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.3-8.3, P = 0.011). The UGIB Etiology Score was calculated from (3.1 × previous diagnosis of cirrhosis or signs of chronic liver disease) + (1.5 × red vomitus) + (1.2 × red NG aspirate), when 1 and 0 are used for the presence and absence of each factor, respectively. Using a cutoff ≥ 3.1, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) in predicting variceal bleeding were 85%, 81%, 82%, 50%, and 96%, respectively. The score was prospectively validated in another set of 195 UGIB cases (46 variceal and 149 non-variceal bleeding). The PPV and NPV of a score ≥ 3.1 for variceal bleeding were 79% and 97%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: The UGIB Etiology Score, composed of 3 parameters, using a cutoff ≥ 3.1 accurately predicted variceal bleeding and may help to guide the choice of initial therapy for UGIB before endoscopy.

Proton pump inhibitors and recurrent bleeding in peptic ulcer disease

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is one of the main lesions responsible for upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, as well as esophageal varices and Mallory-Weiss tear. Helicobacter pylori and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs)/aspirin are the major responsible causes. In cases of upper GI bleeding, urgent endoscopy is performed after stabilization of vital signs. There are several modalities for controlling bleeding in PUD, such as ethanol injection or hypertonic saline with epinephrine. Recurrent bleeding occurs in 20% of patients after endoscopic therapy. The combination of endoscopic intervention and a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) is necessary to achieve hemostasis of active bleeding. It has been reported that high-dose omeprazole (80 mg bolus injection, then 8 mg/h continuous infusion for 72 h, then 40 mg/day orally for 1 week) can reduce recurrent bleeding, the need for surgery and mortality from hemorrhagic shock in patients with high-risk peptic ulcer bleeding, as compared with standard-dose omeprazole. The metabolism of PPIs is dependent upon P450 2C19 genotypes and the clinical usefulness of genotypic analysis remains to be determined.

High- versus low-dose proton pump inhibitors after endoscopic hemostasis in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding: a multicentre, randomized study

BACKGROUND

The most effective schedule of proton pump inhibitor (PPI) administration following endoscopic hemostasis of bleeding ulcers remains uncertain.

METHODS

Patients with actively bleeding ulcers and those with nonbleeding visible vessel or adherent clot were treated with epinephrine injection and/or thermal coagulation, and randomized to receive intravenous PPIs according to an intensive regimen (80 mg bolus followed by 8 mg/h as continuous infusion for 72 h) or a standard regimen (40 mg bolus daily followed by saline infusion for 72 h). After the infusion, all patients were given 20 mg PPI twice daily orally. The primary end point was the in-hospital rebleeding rate, as ascertained at the repeat endoscopy.

RESULTS

Bleeding recurred in 28 of 238 patients (11.8%) receiving the intensive regimen, and in 19 of 236 (8.1%) patients receiving the standard regimen (P= 0.18). Most rebleeding episodes occurred during the initial 72-h infusion: 18 (7.6%) and 19 events (8.1%) in the intensive and standard groups, respectively (P= 0.32). Mean units of blood transfused were 1.7 +/- 2.1 in the intensive and 1.5 +/- 2.1 in the standard regimen group (P= 0.34). The duration of hospital stay was <5 days for 88 (37.0%) and 111 patients (47.0%) in the intensive and standard groups (P= 0.03). There were fewer surgical interventions in the standard versus intensive regimen (1 vs 3). Five patients in each treatment group died.

CONCLUSIONS

Following endoscopic hemostasis of bleeding ulcers, standard-dose PPIs infusion was as effective as a high-dose regimen in reducing the risk of recurrent bleeding. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00374101).

Usefulness of prognostic indices in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage remains a significant cause of hospital admission, with mortality rates up to 14%. In order to standardise and improve care, various scoring systems (e.g. Rockall, Blatchford and Baylor) have been developed to identify those individuals at high risk of requiring treatment (transfusion, endoscopic or surgical intervention) or of re-bleeding or death. There is also increasing interest in the utilisation of scoring systems to identify individuals at low risk of complications, as these may be discharged early, possibly with outpatient endoscopy. Most scoring systems are developed to predict outcomes in non-variceal bleeding. However, several indices are used to predict the outcome of advanced liver disease, including Child-Pugh and the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD). This chapter reviews all these aspects of the various scoring systems.

Artificial neural network as a predictive instrument in patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Triage of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) has traditionally required urgent upper endoscopy. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of artificial neural network for nonendoscopic triage.

METHODS

A cohort of 387 patients was used to train (n = 194) and internally validate (n = 193) the neural network, which was then externally validated in 200 patients and compared with the clinical and complete Rockall score. Two outcome variables were assessed: major stigmata of recent hemorrhage and need for endoscopic therapy. Patient cohort data from 2 independent tertiary-care medical centers were prospectively collected. Adult patients hospitalized at both sites during the same time period with a primary diagnosis of acute nonvariceal UGIH.

RESULTS

In predicting the 2 measured outcomes, sensitivity of neural network was >80%, with high negative predictive values (92-96%) in both cohorts but with lower specificity in the external cohort. Both Rockall scores had adequate sensitivity (>80%) but poor specificity (<40%) at outcome prediction. Comparing areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, the clinical Rockall score was significantly inferior to neural network in both cohorts (</=0.65 vs. >/= 0.78), while in the external cohort, neural network performed similarly to the complete Rockall score (>/= 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

In acute nonvariceal UGIH, artificial neural network (nonendoscopic triage) performed as well as the complete Rockall score (endoscopic triage) at predicting stigmata of recent hemorrhage and need for endoscopic therapy, even when tested in an external patient population.

Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is an important condition facing gastroenterologists. The focus of this article is the management of NVUGIB, with a particular emphasis on the endoscopic modalities and techniques that are most effective for various bleeding etiologies. Attention also is given to medical management, risk assessment, and issues pertaining to the timing of endoscopy and need for scheduled second-look endoscopy.

[Acute upper gastrointestinal nonvariceal bleeding--how to determine low risk patients for rebleeding and mortality after endoscopic sclerotherapy?]

INTRODUCTION

Successful endoscopic sclerotherapy is effective in securing hemostasis for bleeding lesions and remains the first line and only needed therapy for most of the patients (pts), but bleeding reoccurs in 10% to 30% pts, and 4% to 14% of the pts die after acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The need for hospitalization and its duration for all the bleeding pts is still a controversial question.

AIM

To create the simple scoring system able to determine low risk pts for rebleeding and mortality by establishing the relative importance of risk factors for rebleeding and mortality after successful endoscopic sclerotherapy of acute nonvariceal UGIB.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Prospective study included 3 15 pts who where admitted to hospital because of acute nonvariceal UGIB. All of them underwent gastroscopy with successful sclerotherapy within 12 hours after the admission. We investigated the episode of rebleeding and death during the initial hospitalization, and analyzed the following parameters: age, gender, drug intake, shock, bleeding stigmata, location of bleeding lesion and comorbidity.

RESULTS

Rebleeding occurred in 53 pts (16.8%) and was determined by shock, bleeding stigmata and comorbidity. Eleven pts (3.5%) died and shock, rebleeding and comorbidity were all independent, statistically significant predictors of pts' mortality. The numerical scores for determination of pts with different risk levels for rebleeding and mortality have been developed using the significant predictors of rebleeding and death. The score values for rebleeding ranged from 3 to 9 and pts with values < or = 4 had low risk of rebleeding. We identified 59 pts (18.7% of all) with score for rebleeding < or = 4. Score values for mortality risk ranged from 3 to 8 and the values < 5 revealed negligible risk of death. In our group we found 290 pts (92.1% of all) with low mortality score values.

CONCLUSION

Following the successful initial endoscopic sclerotherapy, these scores can help to identify pts with low risk of rebleeding and negligible risk of death, so they can be treated as outpatients.

Validation of the Rockall scoring system for outcomes from non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a Canadian setting

AIM: To validate the Rockall scoring system for predicting outcomes of rebleeding, and the need for a surgical procedure and death.

METHODS: We used data extracted from the Registry of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding and Endoscopy including information of 1869 patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding treated in Canadian hospitals. Risk scores were calculated and used to classify patients based on outcomes. For each outcome, we used χ² goodness-of-fit tests to assess the degree of calibration, and built receiver operating characteristic curves and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the discriminative ability of the scoring system.

RESULTS: For rebleeding, the χ² goodness-of-fit test indicated an acceptable fit for the model [χ² (8) = 12.83, P = 0.12]. For surgical procedures [χ² (8) = 5.3, P = 0.73] and death [χ² (8) = 3.78, P = 0.88], the tests showed solid correspondence between observed proportions and predicted probabilities. The AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55-0.62) for the outcome of rebleeding and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.54-0.67) for surgical procedures, representing a poor discriminative ability of the scoring system. For the outcome of death, the AUC was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69-0.78), indicating an acceptable discriminative ability.

CONCLUSION: The Rockall scoring system provides an acceptable tool to predict death, but performs poorly for endpoints of rebleeding and surgical procedures.

Mesure de l’hémoglobine capillaire par un lecteur d’hémoglobine portable

INTRODUCTION

Monitoring of hemoglobin is necessary in patients with gastrointestinal haemorrhage. Take blood sample and analysis at laboratory with automatum is the gold standard. A fast determination of hemoglobin at the bedside is possible with a portable haemoglobinometer Hemocue.

AIMS AND METHODS

To assess correlation of capillary hemoglobin by Hemocue at the bedside, with venous hemoglobin by Coulter STKS in laboratory, for the monitoring of patients with a gastrointestinal haemorrhage hospitalized at november 2001 to july 2002. Statistical analysis used t test student apparied, and the determination of correlation coefficient r.

RESULTS

Fourteen males and 8 females 61+/-17 aged had taking 204 venous blood samples and 204 capillaries blood simultaneously. Gastrointestinal haemorrhage was related with variceal bleeding (n=11), a duodenal ulcer (n =6), an esophagitis peptic ulcer (n =1), a diverticulous colitis (n =2), a gastric cancer (n =1), and an ischemic colitis (n =1). Initial hemoglobin was at 7.6+/-2,4 g/dL. Transfusion of 3+/-3 blood unit were realised in 17 patients. Means of hemoglobin were 9.15+/-1,62 g/dL on venous blood analyzed in laboratory, and 9.43 +/- 1,72 g/dL on blood capillary by Hemocue at the bedside. Correlation coefficient r was 0.87 (p <0.001). Variceal or others bleeding, fluid infusion for hypovolaemia, red cell transfusion and widespread of low level hemoglobin do not disturbed the validity of results.

CONCLUSION

In acute period of a gastrointestinal hemorrhage, monitoring of hemoglobin by Hemocue with capillary blood at the bedside is a reliable method.

Current management of peptic ulcer bleeding

Peptic ulcer bleeding is a common and potentially fatal condition. It is best managed using a multidisciplinary approach by a team with medical, endoscopic and surgical expertise. The management of peptic ulcer bleeding has been revolutionized in the past two decades with the advent of effective endoscopic hemostasis and potent acid-suppressing agents. A prompt initial clinical and endoscopic assessment should allow patients to be triaged effectively into those who require active therapy, versus those who require monitoring and preventative therapy. A combination of pharmacologic and endoscopic therapy (using a combination of injection and thermal coagulation) offers the best chance of hemostasis for those with active bleeding ulcers. Surgery, being the most effective way to control bleeding, should be considered for treatment failures. The choice between surgery and repeat endoscopic therapy should be based on the pre-existing comorbidities of the patient and the characteristics of the ulcer.

Outcome of non-variceal acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding in relation to the time of endoscopy and the experience of the endoscopist: a two-year survey

AIM

To prospectively assess the impact of time of endoscopy and endoscopist's experience on the outcome of non-variceal acute upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding patients in a large teaching hospital.

METHODS

All patients admitted for non-variceal acute upper GI bleeding for over a 2-year period were potentially eligible for this study. They were managed by a team of seven endoscopists on 24-h call whose experience was categorized into two levels (high and low) according to the number of endoscopic hemostatic procedures undertaken before the study. Endoscopic treatment was standardized according to Forrest classification of lesions as well as the subsequent medical therapy. Time of endoscopy was subdivided into two time periods: routine (8 a.m.-5 p.m.) and on-call (5 p.m.-8 a.m.). For each category of experience and time periods rebleeding rate, transfusion requirement, need for surgery, length of hospital stay and mortality we compared. Multivariate analysis was used to discriminate the impact of different variables on the outcomes that were considered.

RESULTS

Study population consisted of 272 patients (mean age 67.3 years) with endoscopic stigmata of hemorrhage. The patients were equally distributed among the endoscopists, whereas only 19% of procedures were done out of working hours. Rockall score and Forrest classification at admission did not differ between time periods and degree of experience. Univariate analysis showed that higher endoscopist's experience was associated with significant reduction in rebleeding rate (14% vs 37%), transfusion requirements (1.8+/-0.6 vs 3.0+/-1.7 units) as well as surgery (4% vs 10%), but not associated with the length of hospital stay nor mortality. By contrast, outcomes did not significantly differ between the two time periods of endoscopy. On multivariate analysis, endoscopist's experience was independently associated with rebleeding rate and transfusion requirements. Odds ratios for low experienced endoscopist were 4.47 for rebleeding and 6.90 for need of transfusion after the endoscopy.

CONCLUSION

Endoscopist's experience is an important independent prognostic factor for non-variceal acute upper GI bleeding. Urgent endoscopy should be undertaken preferentially by a skilled endoscopist as less expert staff tends to underestimate some risk lesions with a negative influence on hemostasis.

Validation of a clinical prediction rule for severe acute lower intestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVES

Acute lower intestinal bleeding is a heterogeneous disorder and identification of high-risk patients is challenging. We previously retrospectively identified predictors of severity in patients with acute lower intestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate a clinical prediction rule for severe acute lower intestinal bleeding.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to an academic, tertiary care or a community-based teaching hospital for management of acute lower intestinal bleeding. Data were collected on seven previously identified predictors of severe bleeding: heart rate > or = 100/min, systolic blood pressure < or = 115 mmHg, syncope, nontender abdominal exam, rectal bleeding in the first 4 h of evaluation, aspirin use, and >2 comorbid conditions. Severe bleeding was defined as transfusion of > or =2 units of red blood cells, and/or a decrease in hematocrit of > or =20% in the first 24 h, and/or recurrent rectal bleeding after 24 h of stability (accompanied by a further decrease in hematocrit of > or =20%, and/or additional blood transfusions, and/or readmission for acute lower intestinal bleeding within 1 wk of discharge). Patients were stratified into 3 risk groups according to the previously developed prediction rule: low (no risk factors), moderate (1-3 risk factors), and high (>3 risk factors).

RESULTS

A total of 275 patients with acute lower intestinal bleeding were identified. The risk of severe bleeding in each risk category was similar in the validation and derivation cohorts (p values >0.05): low risk 6%versus 9%, moderate risk 43%versus 43%, and high risk 79%versus 84%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.754 for the validation cohort and 0.761 for the derivation cohort. The magnitude of the risk score was significantly correlated with major clinical outcomes including surgery, death, blood transfusions, and length of stay.

CONCLUSION

We have developed and prospectively validated a clinical prediction rule for acute severe lower intestinal bleeding. This prediction rule could improve the triage of patients to appropriate levels of care and interventions, and guide a more standardized approach to acute lower intestinal bleeding.

[Endoscopic treatment of bleeding ulcers: has everything been said and done?]

Endoscopic treatment reduces bleeding recurrence, the need for surgery and mortality in patients with bleeding ulcers. However endoscopic treatment fails in 10-15% of patients, leading to high morbidity and mortality. The therapeutic measures with demonstrated effectiveness in reducing the risk of hemorrhagic recurrence and its complications are combined endoscopic treatment (adrenaline plus a second hemostatic intervention) and proton pump inhibitors. Also useful, although there is less evidence, are immediate resuscitation and <<second look>> endoscopy. Some studies suggest that activated recombinant factor VII infusion or supra-selective arterial embolization can be useful in severe hemorrhage. Further studies are required to determine optimal treatment according to the characteristics of each patient.

Appropriate use of intravenous proton pump inhibitors in the management of bleeding peptic ulcer

Rebleeding from peptic ulcers is a major unsolved problem in the management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Our goal was to review what is known and what remains to be learned about the effectiveness of antisecretory therapy for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We reviewed the data regarding the effectiveness of endoscopic therapy, the prediction of those at increased risk for rebleeding, and the effectiveness of antisecretory drug therapy in preventing rebleeding with or without endoscopic hemostasis. Proton pump inhibitor therapy without endoscopic hemostasis is ineffective clinically for stopping bleeding or preventing rebleeding. Endoscopic hemostasis remains the cornerstone of therapy. The data are consistent with the notion that reliable maintenance of the intragastric pH at > or = 6 after endoscopic hemostasis is associated with the lowest rebleeding rates. H2-receptor antagonists are ineffective for achieving this goal. Intermittent bolus and oral administration of proton pump inhibitors are equivalent and fail to achieve this goal, which can only be accomplished by bolus administration of a proton pump inhibitor (e.g., 80 mg) followed by a constant infusion (e.g., 8 mg/hr). Whether the combination of endoscopic hemostasis and pH control is equal or superior to selected second-look endoscopy is unknown. A treatment algorithm is suggested.

Comparison of inpatient and outpatient upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Inpatients developing upper gastrointestinal (GI) haemorrhage are at increased risk of death. This study was performed to elucidate differences in inpatients and outpatients.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Three hundred and sixty-two patients who needed esophagogastroduodenoscopy for upper GI bleeding were identified from endoscopy charts. Patients' characteristics, bleeding parameters, clinical presentation, pre-existing medication, and laboratory data were compared between patients who were admitted because of upper GI bleeding and patients who developed bleeding while in hospital for other reasons.

RESULTS/FINDINGS

Hospital mortality was 39.0% in inpatients vs. 11.1% in outpatients (p<0.01). Death due to bleeding was observed in 9.5% of inpatients vs. 2.5% of outpatients (p<0.01). Whereas peptic ulcer was the most common source of bleeding in both, variceal bleeding was the most common cause of death because of haemorrhage in both. Recurrent bleeding was associated with mortality in outpatients (p<0.001), but not in inpatients (p=0.11). Rates of bleeding recurrence and need for surgery was similar in both groups. Inpatients suffered more often from renal disease, pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, coagulopathy, or immunosuppression, and were treated more frequently with acetylsalicylic acid, glucocorticoids and heparin. The frequency of pre-existing disease was higher in inpatients.

INTERPRETATION/CONCLUSION

Higher mortality after GI bleeding in inpatients than in outpatients is due to a generally higher prevalence of co-morbidity rather than a single or a few risk factors.

Management of bleeding peptic ulcer in France: a national inquiry

AIMS OF THE STUDY

To evaluate and compare management practices in France for bleeding peptic ulcers using a national inquiry of university and non-university hospitals.

METHOD

Responses to questionnaires sent to 812 gastroenterologists, 496 practicing in non-university hospitals and 316 in university hospitals, were compared.

RESULTS

An analysis was possible in 279 (34% response rate) of the questionnaires. Forrest classification was used more frequently in university hospitals (83% vs 60%, P<0.01). Endoscopic hemostatic therapy was used more frequently in university hospitals for Forrest Ib (92% vs 81%, P=0.02), IIa (93% vs 73%, P<0.001), and IIb (58% vs 29%, P<0.001) ulcers. Injection therapy, mainly epinephrine, was the first-intention treatment for 99% of the responding gastroenterologists. Proportions of clinicians employing hemoclips (27%) or argon plasma coagulation (21%) were similar in both types of practice. Anti-secretory treatment included mainly omeprazole (82%), given intravenously (76%), sometimes as bolus i.v. doses followed by i.v. high-dose continuous infusion (15%) with some variations according to the type of hospital. In the event of recurrent or persistent bleeding, surgery was more frequent in non-university hospitals. When rebleeding occurred, a second endoscopic treatment was performed in about one quarter of patients.

CONCLUSION

In France, management practices for bleeding peptic ulcer vary between university and non-university hospitals.

Effectiveness of an upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage unit: a prospective analysis of 900 consecutive cases using the Rockall score as a method of risk standardisation

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of a centralised upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGIH) unit.

METHODS

The UK Audit of acute UGIH resulted in the formulation of a simple numerical scoring system. The Rockall score categorises patients by risk factors for death and allows case-mix comparisons. A total of 900 consecutive patients admitted to a UGIH unit between October 1995 and July 1998 were analysed prospectively. Patients were given an initial Rockall score and, if endoscopy was performed, a complete score. This method of risk stratification allowed the proportion of deaths (in our study) to be compared with the National Audit using risk standardised mortality ratios.

RESULTS

The distribution of both initial and final Rockall scores was significantly higher in our study than in the National Audit. A total of 73 (8.1%) patients died, compared with the National Audit mortality of 14%. Risk-standardised mortality ratios using both initial and complete Rockall scores were significantly lower in our study when compared with those in the National Audit.

CONCLUSION

A specialised UGIH unit is associated with a lower proportion of deaths from UGIH, despite comprising a greater number of high-risk patients than the National Audit. This lower mortality therefore cannot be attributed to a more favourable case mix and demonstrates that further improvements in mortality for UGIH can be made.

Comparison of three different risk scoring systems in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To prospectively validate in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding three risk scoring systems (the Baylor College scoring system, the Rockall's risk scoring system and the Cedars-Sinai Medical Centre predictive index) previously proposed to be predictive of rebleeding/death after upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We calculated values of the scores for 343 patients, who underwent endoscopy after non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage during the years 1997-1999. We compared the observed outcomes with the ones expected upon the original series contributed by the authors. Discriminative ability was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Rockall's score accurately predicted rebleeding in low- and intermediate-risk categories (< 6), but not in high-risk patients. The rates of rebleeding were significantly higher than the ones predicted by the low-risk categories of either Cedars-Sinai index (< or = 2) or Baylor score (< or = 6). The predicted and the observed mortality was not significantly different throughout all the categories of Rockall's score, except for patients with a score of 4. All the scores had better discriminative ability for mortality than for rebleeding. The Rockall's score identifies a low-risk group of patients (Rockall's score < or = 2) for rebleeding and mortality.

Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Nonvariceal UGI bleeding is one of the most common emergencies that gastroenterologists encounter, and continues to be a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. The keys to management are rapid resuscitation and stabilization; appropriate triage based on pre-endoscopic risk factors; early endoscopy to achieve prompt diagnosis and implement hemostatic therapy to high-risk lesions; and aggressive antisecretory therapy (in the case of peptic ulcer bleeding) to reduce the risk of continued or recurrent bleeding.

Outcome of endoscopic treatment for peptic ulcer bleeding: Is a second look necessary? A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic therapy for GI bleeding is highly effective. Nevertheless, bleeding recurs in 10% to 25% of cases, irrespective of the method of treatment used. Whether a second-look endoscopy with retreatment after initial hemostasis is of clinical value is controversial. A meta-analysis was performed to assess whether systematic second-look endoscopy with retreatment reduces the risks of recurrent bleeding, salvage surgery, and death in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed of randomized controlled studies of the value of second-look endoscopy in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding published between 1990 and 2000. Four studies were selected according to predefined criteria. Two investigators extracted the data independently. Pooled risk estimates and number need to treat were calculated for each procedure. Heterogeneity of effects was tested.

RESULTS

The absolute risk reduction in clinical recurrent bleeding was 6.2% (p < 0.01). Absolute risk reduction for surgery and mortality were, respectively, 1.7% and 1.0% (not significant). The second look with retreatment significantly reduced the risk of recurrent bleeding compared with control patients (OR 0.64; 95% CI [0.44, 0.95]; p < 0.01), with a number needed to treat of 16. There was no heterogeneity among studies. The risk of surgery as well as the risk of death were not significantly influenced by the second-look endoscopy with retreatment (number needed to treat, respectively, 58 and 97).

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic second-look endoscopy with retreatment significantly reduces the risk of recurrent bleeding in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding compared with control patients, but it does not substantially reduce the risk of salvage surgery or mortality.

Minimizing recurrent peptic ulcer hemorrhage after endoscopic hemostasis: the cost-effectiveness of competing strategies

OBJECTIVES

Controversy exists regarding the optimal strategy to minimize recurrent ulcer hemorrhage after successful endoscopic hemostasis. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of competing strategies for the posthemostasis management of patients with high risk ulcer stigmata.

METHODS

Through decision analysis, we calculated the cost-effectiveness of four strategies: 1) follow patients clinically after hemostasis and repeat endoscopy only in patients with evidence of rebleeding (usual care); 2) administer intravenous proton pump inhibitors (i.v. PPIs) after hemostasis and repeat endoscopy only in patients with clinical signs of rebleeding; 3) perform second look endoscopy at 24 h in all patients with successful endoscopic hemostasis; and 4) perform selective second look endoscopy at 24 h only in patients at high risk for rebleeding as identified by the prospectively validated Baylor Bleeding Score. Probability estimates were derived from a systematic review of the medical literature. Cost estimates were based on Medicare reimbursement. Effectiveness was defined as the proportion of patients with rebleeding, surgery, or death prevented.

RESULTS

The selective second look endoscopy strategy was the most effective and least expensive of the four competing strategies, and therefore dominated the analysis. The i.v. PPI strategy required 50% fewer endoscopies than the competing strategies, and became the dominant strategy when the rebleed rate with i.v. PPIs fell below 9% and when the cost of i.v. PPIs fell below 10 dollars/day.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the usual practice of "watchful waiting," performing selective second look endoscopy in high risk patients may prevent more cases of rebleeding, surgery, or death at a lower overall cost. However, i.v. PPIs are likely to reduce the need for second look endoscopy and may be preferred overall if the rebleed rate and cost of i.v. PPIs remains low.

Hospital care for low-risk patients with acute, nonvariceal upper GI hemorrhage: a comparison of neighboring community and tertiary care centers

OBJECTIVES

The proportion of patients admitted to the hospital with acute upper GI hemorrhage (UGIH) who are at low risk for adverse outcomes may be substantial. The process of care for this low risk population likely varies across practice settings but has not been extensively studied. Use of the Rockall Risk score, a simple validated scoring index that predicts outcomes in UGIH, may help to identify these low risk patients.

METHODS

We evaluated and compared the incidence of low risk UGIH admissions, adverse outcomes, and level of healthcare resource use in a community hospital (SMH) and a neighboring tertiary care university hospital (CHS). Cases of UGIH were identified from administrative databases during 1997 and 1998. Medical record data were abstracted in a standardized manner. Cases were defined as low risk on the basis of Rockall risk scores of < or = 2.

RESULTS

The low risk study groups consisted of 49 of 187 (26%) SMH cases and 53/175 (30%) CHS cases (p = 0.40). Rebleeding was uncommon (6% at SMH; 4% at CHS) (p = 0.64). No deaths occurred; 71% at SMH versus 49% at CHS were admitted to a monitored bed (p = 0.04); and 92% at SMH versus 57% at CHS were prescribed i.v. H2 blockers for the acute bleeding event (p < 0.001). Low risk patients had a mean hospital length of stay of 3.3 + 2.4 days at SMH versus 2.6 + 2.1 days at CHS (p = 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the proportion of acute, low risk, nonvariceal, upper GI hemorrhage admissions to neighboring community and tertiary care medical centers was high, whereas adverse clinical outcomes in this group of patients was low. Use of healthcare resources seemed to be greater in the community hospital. This observed variation in the process of care for populations with similar disease severity and outcomes suggests an opportunity for evidence-based interventions aimed at improving the efficiency of care.

Impact of physician specialty on the cost of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding care

OBJECTIVE

Upper GI bleeding (UGIB) is a common medical emergency that leads to a high consumption of medical resources and costs. We aimed to analyze the influence of physician specialty on the costs of nonvariceal UGIB care.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed 350 nonvariceal UGIB episodes that were primarily cared for by gastroenterologists (n = 142), internists (n = 67), or surgeons (n = 141). Gastroenterologists followed evidence-based clinical protocols that included early endoscopy and early hospital discharge for uncomplicated bleeding. A risk score system was used to control for severity of illness. Linear regression analyses were performed to find out predictors of costs and the influence of specialist care on length of stay (LOS).

RESULTS

The overall mean hospital cost was significantly lower in patients cared for by gastroenterologists (EUR 1,630) than in those managed by internists (EUR 3,745, p < 0.001) or surgeons (EUR 2,513, p < 0.05). The mean LOS was the variable with highest influence on total cost. Patients cared for by gastroenterologists had a mean LOS significantly shorter (7.3 days) than that of those treated by internists (16.2 days, p < 0.001) or surgeons (11 days, p < 0.001). Hospital costs and LOS differences were maintained when adjusting for severity of illness. In caring for low risk patients, nongastroenterologists had a higher probability of having a hospital stay longer than 4 days (odds ratio = 18.4, Cl = 4.6-73.6, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The implementation of specific evidence-based protocols by gastroenterologists reduces length of hospital stay and saves medical costs in patients with nonvariceal UGIB, especially those at low risk.

Prospective validation of the Rockall risk scoring system for upper GI hemorrhage in subgroups of patients with varices and peptic ulcers

OBJECTIVES

The Rockall risk assessment score was devised to allow prediction of the risk of rebleeding and death in patients with upper GI hemorrhage. The score was derived by multivariate analysis in a cohort of patients with upper GI hemorrhage and subsequently validated in a second cohort. Only 4.4% of patients included in the initial study had esophageal varices, and analysis was not performed according to the etiology of the bleeding. Our aim was to assess the validity of the Rockall risk scoring system in predicting rebleeding and mortality in patients with esophageal varices or peptic ulcers.

METHODS

Admissions (n = 358) over 32 months to a single specialist GI bleeding unit were scored prospectively. The distribution of episodes of rebleeding and mortality by Rockall score were statistically analyzed using Fisher's exact test with 99% CIs calculated using a Monte Carlo method. The Child-Pugh score was determined in patients with esophageal varices.

RESULTS

The Rockall score was predictive of both rebleeding and mortality in patients with variceal hemorrhage (both ps < 0.0005), as was the Child-Pugh score (p = 0.001 and p < 0.0005, respectively). The initial Rockall score was predictive of mortality in patients with peptic ulcers (p = 0.01), although the complete score was not (p > 0.05). The complete score did, however, predict rebleeding in these patients (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to validate the Rockall score in specific subgroups of patients with esophageal varices or peptic ulcers and suggests that it is particularly applicable to variceal hemorrhage.

Relevance of the Rockall score in patients undergoing endoscopic therapy for peptic ulcer haemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

To assess the ability of the Rockall score to predict outcome in patients who undergo endoscopic therapy for peptic ulcer haemorrhage.

DESIGN

Retrospective data analysis.

SETTING

Patients admitted to the three major acute hospitals in Lothian, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Details of 211 patients involved in two randomized trials of endoscopic therapy between 1995 and 1999 were accessed, and Rockall scores calculated. All patients had ulcers with active bleeding or non-bleeding visible vessels requiring endoscopic therapy. The patients were followed up for 6 months and end points included rebleeding and death.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

A comparison of mean Rockall scores for those patients who did not rebleed, those who re-bled and those who died. Identification of those patients at greatest risk of rebleeding or death after endoscopic therapy.

RESULTS

One hundred and seventy-six patients did not rebleed, with mean score 6.17 (SD = 1.61). Rebleeding occurred in 35 patients whose mean score was 6.97 (SD = 1.52). There were 29 deaths with mean score 7.34 (SD = 1.40). The differences between the three groups were significant by one-way ANOVA (P < 0.001). Fifty-six patients had a Rockall score of 8 or over and, of these, 16 (29%) re-bled and 14 (25%) died. Of the 155 patients with scores of 7 or less, 19 (12%) re-bled and 15 (10%) died. The difference between these groups was significant with chi2 = 7.912 (P = 0.005) for rebleeding and chi2 = 8.147 (P = 0.004) for death.

CONCLUSIONS

The Rockall score can be used to predict poor outcome in patients who undergo therapeutic endoscopy for major peptic ulcer bleeding.