Smallpox and bioterrorism: Public-health responses

The Impact of Consumer Purchase Behavior Changes on the Business Model Design of Consumer Services Companies Over the Course of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound psychological and behavioral impact on people around the world. Consumer purchase behaviors have thus changed greatly, and consumer services companies need to adjust their business models to adapt to this change. From the perspective of consumer psychology, this paper explores the impact of consumer purchase behavior changes over the course of the pandemic on the business model design of consumer services companies using a representative survey of 1,742 individuals. Our results show that changes in consumer purchase behavior have a significant impact on the design of consumer services firms' business models. Specifically, changes in consumers' purchase object, motive, and timeframe are more likely to spark a novelty-centered business model design, whereas changes in purchase method tend to inspire an efficiency-centered one. Our findings provide a theoretical reference for consumer services companies in designing business models when faced with unexpected crises.

Mathematical models of contact patterns between age groups for predicting the spread of infectious diseases

The spread of an infectious disease is sensitive to the contact patterns in the population and to precautions people take to reduce the transmission of the disease. We investigate the impact that different mixing assumptions have on the spread an infectious disease in an age-structured ordinary differential equation model. We consider the impact of heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity within the population on the disease transmission. We apply the analysis to the spread of a smallpox-like disease, derive the formula for the reproduction number, ~0, and based on this threshold parameter, show the level of human behavioral change required to control the epidemic. We analyze how different mixing patterns can affect the disease prevalence, the cumulative number of new infections, and the final epidemic size. Our analysis indicates that the combination of residual immunity and behavioral changes during a smallpox-like disease outbreak can play a key role in halting infectious disease spread; and that realistic mixing patterns must be included in the epidemic model for the predictions to accurately reflect reality.

The public acceptance of smallpox vaccination to fight bioterrorism in Japan: results of a large-scale opinion survey in Japan

OBJECTIVES

This study examines the public acceptance of smallpox vaccinations in the event of a terrorist attack using smallpox. The article also provides public health professionals with the information necessary for such smallpox management.

METHODS

A questionnaire survey was conducted in a city in Japan asking about prospective action when smallpox vaccination is advised after a terrorist attack and factors that could influence individual decisions about such vaccination.

RESULTS

Only a tiny fraction of people (0.12%) expressed their rejection of vaccination. Of the respondents, 63.6% showed their intent to be vaccinated promptly when such a measure was required; 28.6% wanted to decide for themselves, having some reservations. Those in the younger age group, those suffering from hypertension/cardiac diseases, and those who considered the threat of smallpox terrorism less seriously were likely to reserve their vaccination decisions until after examining information.

CONCLUSIONS

Communication programs regarding smallpox vaccination should be well planned beforehand and should especially target those people who reserve their decisions at such times. Health professionals should also be well equipped with all information necessary for appropriate and effective smallpox management in the face of such a bioterrorism attack or the strong potential of one.

Countermeasures and vaccination against terrorism using smallpox: pre-event and post-event smallpox vaccination and its contraindications

Smallpox, when used as a biological weapon, presents a serious threat to civilian populations. Core components of the public health management of a terrorism attack using smallpox are: vaccination (ring vaccination and mass vaccination), adverse event monitoring, confirmed and suspected smallpox case management, contact management, identifying, tracing, monitoring contacts, and quarantine. Above all, pre-event and post-event vaccination is an indispensable part of the strategies. Since smallpox patients are most infectious from onset of the rash through the first 7-10 days of the rash, vaccination should be administered promptly within a limited time frame. However, vaccination can accompany complications, such as postvaccinial encephalitis, progressive vaccinia, eczema vaccinatum, and generalized vaccinia. Therefore, vaccination is not recommended for certain groups. Public health professionals, as well as physicians and government officials, should also be well equipped with all information necessary for appropriate and effective smallpox management in the face of such a bioterrorism attack.

The smallpox vaccine

BACKGROUND

A heightened awareness of the potential for bioterrorist attacks in the United States has led to the expansion of the nation's supply of smallpox vaccine and the institution of procedures to distribute this vaccine in the unlikely event of a release of this potentially deadly agent.

METHODS

The authors conducted a review of the relevant smallpox literature through a MEDLINE search. They also reviewed the Web site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and numerous other Web sites.

RESULTS

The authors considered for inclusion more than 100 articles discussing smallpox, the smallpox vaccine and the role of the dental professional in a bioterrorist attack.

CONCLUSIONS

Dentists may detect the initial signs of a smallpox infection, provide information concerning the disease to the public and potentially assist in the administration of smallpox vaccine.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Should an intentional release of smallpox occur, the dental professional may play an important role in its treatment and prevention.

Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model

The impact of individual and community behavioral changes in response to an outbreak of a disease with high mortality is often not appreciated. Response strategies to a smallpox bioterrorist attack have focused on interventions such as isolation of infectives, contact tracing, quarantine of contacts, ring vaccination, and mass vaccination. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model in which some individuals lower their daily contact activity rates once an epidemic has been identified in a community. Transmission parameters are estimated from data and an expression is derived for the effective reproduction number. We use computer simulations to analyze the effects of behavior change alone and in combination with other control measures. We demonstrate that the spread of the disease is highly sensitive to how rapidly people reduce their contact activity rates and to the precautions that the population takes to reduce the transmission of the disease. Even gradual and mild behavioral changes can have a dramatic impact in slowing an epidemic. When behavioral changes are combined with other interventions, the epidemic is shortened and the number of smallpox cases is reduced. We conclude that for simulations of a smallpox outbreak to be useful, they must consider the impact of behavioral changes. This is especially true if the model predictions are being used to guide public health policy.