A qualitative analysis of a model for the transmission of varicella-zoster virus

Modeling indoor-level non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A pedestrian dynamics-based microscopic simulation approach

Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a significant epidemic spreading risk origin, but existing widely-used epidemic spreading models are usually limited for indoor places since the dynamic physical distance changes between people are ignored, and the empirical features of the essential and non-essential travel are not differentiated. In this paper, we introduce a pedestrian-based epidemic spreading model that is capable of modeling indoor transmission risks of diseases during people's social activities. Taking advantage of the before-and-after mobility data from the University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, it's found that people tend to spend more time in grocery stores once their travel frequencies are restricted to a low level. In other words, an increase in dwell time could balance the decrease in travel frequencies and satisfy people's demands. Based on the pedestrian-based model and the empirical evidence, combined non-pharmaceutical interventions from different operational levels are evaluated. Numerical simulations show that restrictions on people's travel frequency and open hours of indoor places may not be universally effective in reducing average infection risks for each pedestrian who visit the place. Entry limitations can be a widely effective alternative, whereas the decision-maker needs to balance the decrease in risky contacts and the increase in queue length outside the place that may impede people from fulfilling their travel needs. The results show that a good coordination among the decision-makers can contribute to the improvement of the performance of combined non-pharmaceutical interventions, and it also benefits the short-term and long-term interventions in the future.

Stability analysis of pine wilt disease model by periodic use of insecticides

This work is related to qualitative behaviour of an epidemic model of pine wilt disease. More precisely, we proved that the reproductive number has sharp threshold properties. It has been shown that how vector population can be reduced by the periodic use of insecticides. Numerical simulations show that epidemic level of infected vectors becomes independent of saturation level by including the transmission through mating.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study

BACKGROUND

Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella

Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0-11 years old.Moreover, the individual-based model structure allowed us to reproduce several observed features of VZV epidemiology which were not included as hypotheses in the model: the age at varicella in first-born children was older than in other children, in accordance with observation; the same was true for children residing in rural areas. Model predicted incidence was comparable to observed incidence over time. These results show that models based on detailed census data on a small scale provide valid small scale prediction. By simulating several scenarios, we evaluate how varicella epidemiology is shaped by policies, such as age at first school enrolment, and school eviction. This supports the use of such models for investigating outcomes of public health measures.

Did viral disease of humans wipe out the Neandertals?

Neandertals were an anatomically distinct hominoid species inhabiting a vast geographical area ranging from Portugal to western Siberia and from northern Europe to the Middle East. The species became extinct 28,000 years ago, coinciding with the arrival of anatomically modern humans (AMHs) in Europe 40,000 years ago. There has been considerable debate surrounding the main causes of the extinction of Neandertals. After at least 200,000 years of successful adaption to the climate, flora and fauna of Eurasia, it is not clear why they suddenly failed to survive. For many years, climate change or competition with anatomically modern human (AMH) have been the leading hypotheses. Recently these hypotheses have somewhat fallen out of favour due to the recognition that Neandertals were a highly developed species with complex social structure, culture and technical skills. Were AMHs lucky and survived some catastrophe that eradicated the Neandertals? It seems unlikely that this is the case considering the close timing of the arrival of AMHs and the disappearance of Neandertals. Perhaps the arrival of AMHs also brought additional new non-human microscopic inhabitants to the regions where Neandertals lived and these new inhabitants contributed to the disappearance of the species. We introduce a medical hypothesis that complements other recent explanations for the extinction of Neandertals. After the ancestors of Neandertals left Africa, their immune system adapted gradually to the pathogens in their new Eurasian environment. In contrast, AMHs continued to co-evolve with east African pathogens. More than 200,000 years later, AMHs carried pathogens that would have been alien to pre-historic Europe. First contact between long separated populations can be devastating. Recent European and American history provides evidence for similar events, where introduction of viral, protozoan or bacterial pathogens to immunologically naïve populations lead to mass mortality and local population extinction. We propose that a virus, possibly from the family Herpesviridae, contributed to Neandertal extinction.

Modelling the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination regimens on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia

We examined the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in Australia, using a mathematical model. Strategies were assessed in terms of varicella (natural and breakthrough) and zoster incidence, morbidity, average age of infection and vaccine effectiveness (VE). Our modelling results suggest that compared to a one-dose vaccination strategy (Australia's current vaccination schedule), a two-dose strategy is expected to not only produce less natural varicella cases (5% vs. 13% of pre-vaccination state, respectively) but also considerably fewer breakthrough varicella cases (only 11·4% of one-dose strategy). Therefore a two-dose infant vaccination programme would be a better long-term strategy for Australia.

Impulsive vaccination of an SEIRS model with time delay and varying total population size

Pulse vaccination is an effective and important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A delayed SEIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination and varying total population size is proposed in this paper. We point out, if R* < 1, the infectious population disappear so the disease dies out, while if R(*) > 1, the infectious population persist. Our results indicate that a long period of pulsing or a small pulse vaccination rate is sufficient condition for the permanence of the model.

Analysis of a delayed epidemic model with pulse vaccination and saturation incidence

Pulse vaccination is an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. An SEIRS epidemic model with time delays and pulse vaccination is formulated in this paper. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain the exact infection-free periodic solution of the impulsive epidemic system and prove that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive if the vaccination rate is larger than theta*. Moreover, we show that the disease is uniformly persistent if the vaccination rate is less than theta*. The permanence of the model is investigated analytically. Our results indicate that a long latent period of the disease is sufficient condition for the extinction of the disease.