Shemie SD, Hornby L, Chandler J, Nickerson P, Burkell J. Lifetime probabilities of needing an organ transplant versus donating an organ after death.
Am J Transplant 2011;
11:2085-92. [PMID:
21812924 DOI:
10.1111/j.1600-6143.2011.03675.x]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
The lifetime probabilities of becoming a deceased organ donor and requiring or receiving an organ transplant are unknown. An actuarial analysis was performed in a representative Canadian sample. Using Canadian organ donation data 1999-2007, provincial waiting list and population census data, actuarial rates were produced that provide the probabilities, by age band and gender, of (1) becoming a deceased organ donor, (2) needing an organ transplant and (3) receiving all organs needed. Regardless of age, the lifetime probability of needing a transplant for males is approximately twice that of females. Depending on age, Canadians are five to six times more likely to need an organ transplant than to become a deceased organ donor. The lifetime probabilities of not receiving a required organ transplant, expressed as a percentage of individuals on the waiting list, ranges from approximately 30% at birth, 20 years and 40 years to approximately 40% at 60 years. Across provinces and genders, Canadians at all ages are much more likely to need an organ transplant than to become an organ donor. Approximately one-third of those in need of a transplant will never receive one. How this information may influence organ donation decisions is currently under study.
Collapse