The impact of ageing on hospital care and long-term care--the example of Germany

Coupling coordination degree of healthcare resource supply, demand and elderly population change in China

OBJECT

To analyze the trend of the coupling and coordination of the supply and demand of healthcare resources between the elderly population and healthcare resources in China during the period of 2012-2022, to reveal the impact of the growth of the elderly population on the relationship between the supply and demand of healthcare resources, and to put forward suggestions to improve the coupling and coordination between the supply and demand of healthcare resources and the elderly population, in order to cope with the challenges of an aging society.

METHODS

By obtaining relevant data from authoritative data sources such as China Statistical Yearbook, Health and Health Statistics Yearbook, and the Chinese government website from 2012 to 2022, we constructed a comprehensive measurement index for the three systems of elderly population, healthcare resource supply, and healthcare resource demand; Using the entropy value method to assign weights to the indicators, combined with the coupling coordination degree model, to reveal the changes of the elderly population change and the supply and demand of medical and health resources; using ArcGIS technology, to study the spatial characteristics of the elderly population change and the supply and demand of medical and health resources.

RESULTS

From 2012 to 2022, the supply and demand of healthcare resources and the variation of the elderly population in China show a continuous growth trend, and the comprehensive development level of the system gradually climbs from a low level to a high level. The fluctuation of coupling degree and coordination degree rises, although the coordination degree has always been lower than the coupling degree, but the distance between the coordination degree and the coupling degree gradually narrows with the passage of time. The coordination degree between population aging and medical and health resources development shows spatial heterogeneity in China, with the eastern region significantly higher than the western region/.

CONCLUSIONS

The coupling degree between population aging and healthcare resource supply and demand in China from 2012 to 2022 shows a general upward trend from low coupling to medium-high coupling, but it is worth noting that even though the degree of coupling increases, the degree of coordination is still relatively lagging behind, suggesting that the government and relevant departments need to pay more attention to coordinated allocation and management of healthcare resources. At the same time, the spatial differences in the degree of coordination among provinces suggest that future policymakers should take regional differences into full consideration in policymaking and sustainable development.

Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China

BACKGROUND

China has piloted Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) to address increasing care demand. However, many cities neglected adjusting LTCI premiums since the pilot, risking the long-term sustainability of LTCI. Therefore, using Zhejiang Province as a case, this study simulated mortality-adjusted long-term care demand and the balance of LTCI funds through dynamic financing mechanism under diverse life expectancy and disability scenarios.

METHODS

Three-parameter log-quadratic model was used to estimate the mortality from 1990 to 2020. Mortality with predicted interval from 2020 to 2080 was projected by Lee-Carter method extended with rotation. Cohort-component projection model was used to simulate the number of older population with different degrees of disability. Disability data of the older people is sourced from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2018. The balance of LTCI fund was simulated by dynamic financing actuarial model.

RESULTS

Life expectancy of Zhejiang for male (female) is from 80.46 (84.66) years in 2020 to 89.39 [86.61, 91.74] (91.24 [88.90, 93.25]) years in 2080. The number of long-term care demand with severe disability in Zhejiang demonstrates an increasing trend from 285 [276, 295] thousand in 2023 to 1027 [634, 1657] thousand in 2080 under predicted mean of life expectancy. LTCI fund in Zhejiang will become accumulated surplus from 2024 to 2080 when annual premium growth rate is 5.25% [4.20%, 6.25%] under various disability scenarios, which is much higher than the annual growth of unit cost of long-term care services (2.25%). The accumulated balance of LTCI fund is sensitive with life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic growth of LTCI premium is essential in dealing with current deficit around 2050 and realizing Zhejiang's LTCI sustainability in the long-run. The importance of dynamic monitoring disability and mortality information is emphasized to respond immediately to the increase of premiums. LTCI should strike a balance between expanding coverage and controlling financing scale. This study provides implications for developing countries to establish or pilot LTCI schemes.

The effect of older population on public health spending: Evidence from Spain

Background

The gradual ageing of the population, and its effect on public spending, constitutes an urgent challenge for advanced economies. Through this study, we analyse the effect of older people, and their health and individual characteristics, on public health spending.

Methods

Using logistic regression methods, we have analysed the use of different health services and health technologies by older people in Spain, controlled for several health, socioeconomic, and other individual factors.

Results

The main factors that explain the consumption of both health services and health technology, above age, are related to the so-called need factors: self-reported health status, presence of chronic diseases, and disability.

Conclusion

Knowing the main factors that imply greater public health spending is a topic of special interest for designing efficient health policies, in a context of growth in public health spending. In this way, preventive attention on the so-called need factors may be an important driver to improve the effectiveness of spending.

Psychosocial well-being in Long-Term Care in the Wake of COVID-19: Findings from a Qualitative Study in New Zealand

Drawing on Mason Durie's (1985) New Zealand Whare Tapa Whā model of health (spiritual, emotional, physical, and family domains), the goal was to link a model of well-being with the lived reality for long-term care residents and bereaved family members during COVID-19. Interviews were conducted with five residents and six family members of previous residents of one long-term care in one urban centre between July and September 2020. The increased demands imposed by the pandemic highlighted the gaps in well-being for residents and families. In particular, the inability to connect with family during COVID-19 restrictions reduced perceptions of well-being for residents. Study findings indicate that the provision of well-being for older adults and families in long-term care extends beyond the narrow bounds of the biomedical model. The Whare Tapa Whā model provides a valuable framework describing the holistic balance needed between the four health domains.

Spatio-temporal pattern, matching level and prediction of ageing and medical resources in China

OBJECTIVE

Population ageing, as a hot issue in global development, increases the burden of medical resources in society. This study aims to assess the current spatiotemporal evolution and interaction between population ageing and medical resources in mainland China; evaluate the matching level of medical resources to population ageing; and forecast future trends of ageing, medical resources, and the indicator of ageing-resources (IAR).

METHODS

Data on ageing (EPR) and medical resources (NHI, NBHI, and NHTP) were obtained from China Health Statistics Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook (2011-2020). We employed spatial autocorrelation to examine the spatial-temporal distribution trends and analyzed the spatio-temporal interaction using a Bayesian spatio-temporal effect model. The IAR, an improved evaluation indicator, was used to measure the matching level of medical resources to population ageing with kernel density analysis for visualization. Finally, an ETS-DNN model was used to forecast the trends in population ageing, medical resources, and their matching level over the next decade.

RESULTS

The study found that China's ageing population and medical resources are growing annually, yet distribution is uneven across districts. There is a spatio-temporal interaction effect between ageing and medical resources, with higher levels of both in Eastern China and lower levels in Western China. The IAR is relatively high in Northwest, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta, but showed a declining trend in North China and the Yangtze River Delta. The hybrid model (ETS-DNN) gained an R2 of 0.9719, and the predicted median IAR for 2030 (0.99) across 31 regions was higher than the median IAR for 2020 (0.93).

CONCLUSION

This study analyzes the relationship between population ageing and medical resources, revealing a spatio-temporal interaction between them. The IAR evaluation indicator highlights the need to address ageing population challenges and cultivate a competent health workforce. The ETS-DNN forecasts indicate higher concentrations of both medical resources and ageing populations in eastern China, emphasizing the need for region-specific ageing security systems and health service industries. The findings provide valuable policy insights for addressing a hyper-aged society in the future.

Population change and the burden of hospitalization in Germany 2000-2040: Decomposition analysis and projection

Demographic factors, such as population aging and shrinkage, and non-demographic factors, such as hospitalization rate and length of hospital stay, generate challenges for inpatient care. This paper used decomposition analysis to assess how changes in these factors affected the number of hospital treatment days from 2000 to 2015 in Germany. Demographic aging was linked to increases in the number of treatment days for women (+10.0%) and men (+19.2%) and in hospitalization rates for women +6.0% and men +5.4%. However, these increases were offset by decreases in the number of hospital days (women: 16.5%; men: 7.3%) and length of stay (women: -27.4%; men -26.3%). For the projection up to 2040, 12 scenarios were developed (six for women and six for men) using three variants for future population demographics and two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates. One of the two variants for future length of stay and hospitalization rates provides for a constant value for the year 2015. For the second of these two variants variant, a logarithmic model was estimated on the basis of values from 2000 to 2015. and the trends were extrapolated using this model until 2040. The strongest overall predicted increase was 18.4% between 2015 and 2040, including a 22.4% increase for men. In two scenarios for women, only slight declines were predicted. All results, both for the decomposition analysis and projection, indicated a moderate but sustained effect of demographic aging on the number of hospital treatment days, leading to a significant increase in hospital treatment days over the study period. Non-demographic factors also had strong influences, especially in shorter time periods, but these effects offset each other over time. The change in the population size in the period under study had very little effect on the number of hospital treatment days.

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017

Background

Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China.

Methods

The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10 years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area.

Results

The Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR.

Conclusion

The spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.

[Validation of the FIMA Questionnaire for Health-Related Resource Use Against Medical Claims Data: The Role Played by Length of Recall Period]

AIM TO VALIDATE: the questionnaire on health-related resource use in an elderly population (FIMA).

METHODS

Self-reported health care use of 1,552 participants was validated against medical claims data. Reliability was measured by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), sensitivity, specificity, and Cohen's Kappa. Linear regression models were used to investigate the association between validity and individual characteristics, health state, recall period (3, 6, or 12 months), or frequency of resource use.

RESULTS

On average, participants were 74 years old; 95% rated the questionnaire as easy. The number of physician contacts was underestimated depending on recall period by 9 to 28% and the ICC was moderate (3/6/12 months, ICC 0.46/0.48/0.55), whereas contacts with physiotherapists were remembered quite well (ICC>0.75). Remembering the number of days in rehabilitation and hospital differed by recall periods (3/6/12 months); rehabilitation ICC=0.88/0.51/0.87; hospital ICC=0.69/0.88/0.66. Very good reliability of self-reported long-term care insurance benefits was found for all recall periods (Kappa>0.90) while agreement in self-reported medical aid was poor (Kappa<0.30); agreement in intake of medication was good (Kappa>0.40). The chance of agreement between self-reports and claims data significantly decreased with the number of contacts. Individuals with better health had a significantly higher chance of reporting contacts with physiotherapists accurately.

CONCLUSION

The FIMA largely demonstrated good reliability. The FIMA is a coherent and valid instrument to collect health-related resource use in health economic studies in an elderly population.

Brain Inflammation Connects Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Symptoms in Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the main form of dementia in the elderly and affects greater than 47 million people worldwide. Care for AD patients poses very significant personal and economic demands on individuals and society, and the situation is expected to get even more dramatic in the coming decades unless effective treatments are found to halt the progression of the disease. Although AD is most commonly regarded as a disease of the memory, the entire brain is eventually affected by neuronal dysfunction or neurodegeneration, which brings about a host of other behavioral disturbances. AD patients often present with apathy, depression, eating and sleeping disorders, aggressive behavior, and other non-cognitive symptoms, which deeply affect not only the patient but also the caregiver's health. These symptoms are usually associated with AD pathology but are often neglected as part of disease progression due to the early and profound impact of disease on memory centers such as the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex. Yet, a collection of findings offers biochemical insight into mechanisms underlying non-cognitive symptoms in AD, and indicate that, at the molecular level, such symptoms share common mechanisms. Here, we review evidence indicating mechanistic links between memory loss and non-cognitive symptoms of AD. We highlight the central role of the pro-inflammatory activity of microglia in behavioral alterations in AD patients and in experimental models of the disease. We suggest that a deeper understanding of non-cognitive symptoms of AD may illuminate a new beginning in AD research, offering a fresh approach to elucidate mechanisms involved in disease progression and potentially unveiling yet unexplored therapeutic targets.

Impact of Physical Activity by Older People on Long-Term Care Cost Projections in Poland

In this study, we investigate whether higher physical activity of older people dampens increases in public expenditure, particularly the costs of long-term care. In our estimations, we refer to the projections of long-term care costs in Poland, published by the European Commission. Using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) database, we calculate disability rates based on physical activity performed. Our results suggest that disability rates are significantly lower for older people who are physically active, and the promotion of physical activity in Polish society may significantly reduce future budgetary burden connected with population aging.

Preferences for home- and community-based long-term care services in Germany: a discrete choice experiment

BACKGROUND

Most people prefer to "age in place" and to remain in their homes for as long as possible even in case they require long-term care. While informal care is projected to decrease in Germany, the use of home- and community-based services (HCBS) can be expected to increase in the future. Preference-based data on aspects of HCBS is needed to optimize person-centered care.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate preferences for home- and community-based long-term care services packages.

DESIGN

Discrete choice experiment conducted in mailed survey.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomly selected sample of the general population aged 45-64 years in Germany (n = 1.209).

MAIN VARIABLES STUDIED

Preferences and marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for HCBS were assessed with respect to five HCBS attributes (with 2-4 levels): care time per day, service level of the HCBS provider, quality of care, number of different caregivers per month, co-payment.

RESULTS

Quality of care was the most important attribute to respondents and small teams of regular caregivers (1-2) were preferred over larger teams. Yet, an extended range of services of the HCBS provider was not preferred over a more narrow range. WTP per hour of HCBS was €8.98.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings on preferences for HCBS in the general population in Germany add to the growing international evidence of preferences for LTC. In light of the great importance of high care quality to respondents, reimbursement for services by HCBS providers could be more strongly linked to the quality of services.

Early Workplace Intervention to Improve the Work Ability of Employees with Musculoskeletal Disorders in a German University Hospital-Results of a Pilot Study

Health promotion is becoming increasingly important in work life. Healthcare workers seem to be at special risk, experiencing musculoskeletal disorders (MSD); their situation is strongly influenced by demographic changes. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility and outcome of a worksite intervention. In a one-group pretest-posttest design, 118 employees of a hospital were recruited from 2010 to 2011. The raised parameters were satisfaction with the program, work ability (Work Ability Index), and sickness absence (provided by human resource management). Patient-reported questionnaire data was raised at baseline (t1) and after three months (t2). Sickness leave was evaluated in the period six months prior to and six months after the intervention. Means, frequencies, standardized effect sizes (SES), analysis of variance, and regression analysis were carried out. Participants were found to be highly satisfied. Work ability increased with moderate effects (SES = 0.34; p < 0.001) and prognosis of gainful employment (SES = −0.19; p ≤ 0.047) with small effects. Days of MSD-related sickness absence were reduced by 38.5% after six months. The worksite intervention program is transferable to a hospital setting and integration in occupational health management is recommended. The use of a control group is necessary to demonstrate the effectiveness.

[Increase in uro-oncological health care needs due to demographic change: Extrapolation of cancer incidence numbers through 2030 as a basis for directed regional planning]

BACKGROUND

In Germany a considerable increase in the number of urological cancers is expected due to demographic change. Small-scale analyses are important for directed planning of uro-oncological health care due to significant regional variability in the demographic development. In this study the number of new urological cancer cases was extrapolated on the county level for Lower Saxony.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The incidence rates for penile (C60), prostate (C61), testis (C62), kidney (C64), renal pelvis/ureter (C65-66) and bladder cancer (C67, D09.0, D41.4) were extrapolated for counties and urban communes from 2010 to 2020 and to 2030 based on the regional population forecast of the State Office for Statistics of Lower Saxony (2009-2031) and gender- and 5-year age-specific incidence rates for Lower Saxony (averaged for 2006-2010).

RESULTS

From 2010 (n=12.668) to 2020 and 2030, increases of 15% (n = 14.519; men: 15%, women: 10%) and 28% (n=16.201; men: 29%, women: 20%) are expected in urological cancers for Lower Saxony. The greatest rise is predicted for prostate cancer (2030: 31%, n = 9.732; C67 + D09.0 + D41.4: 30%; C60: 28%; C65-66: 27%; C64: 19%). Only testicular carcinomas are expected to decrease (-13%). The increase varies considerably between regions. In the counties the rates range from 7% (2030; C61: 10%) in Osterode am Harz to 63% in Vechta (C61: 70%). In the urban communes the greatest increase is predicted for Oldenburg (total: 40%; C61: 45%) and the lowest increase for Wolfsburg (total: 3%; C61: 3%).

CONCLUSION

Demographic change is expected to lead to a sharp increase in urological cancers. In health care planning (e.g. specialist care) regionally very heterogeneous developments and in particular high growth and close to home care of more and more older and less mobile cancer sufferers, respectively, must be considered for rural areas.

Validity of self-reported hospital admissions in clinical trials depends on recall period length and individual characteristics

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

We investigated the validity of self-reported admission data compared to administrative records in a clinical trial.

METHOD

In the randomized KORINNA study (ISRCTN02893746), hospital admission data were collected in telephone interviews with 273 elderly patients quarterly over a 1-year period and thereafter annually over a 2-year period. Data were compared with administrative records and discharge letters. Mixed models were used to investigate if recall period and individual characteristics influence validity.

RESULTS

Specificity (>99%) and sensitivity (94%) of self-reported data did not differ for different recall periods (3 months vs. 12 months). The differences between self-reported and registered inpatient days were not statistically significant. Having regard to all the admissions within the time period of last interview and dropping out, the bias was up to 40% underestimation. The chance of disagreement was significantly smaller [odds ratio (OR) of misremember an admission = 0.596, P = 0.049, confidence interval (CI) = 0.355 to 1.00; OR of misremember length of stay = 0.521, P = 0.002, CI = 0.344 to 0.789] for 3-month periods, but this was primarily driven by number of admissions within the recall period. Individuals with better health and longer stays had a significantly smaller chance of disagreement.

CONCLUSIONS

The bias within one year was not influenced by applying various recall periods, although the probability of correctly self-reported single hospital admission was higher using a recall period of three months. It can be recommended that lengthened recall periods of 12 months are appropriate for gathering self-reported hospital admission data in elderly people with myocardial infarction.

Sustaining critical care: using evidence-based simulation to evaluate ICU management policies

Intensive Care Units (ICU) are costly yet critical hospital departments that should be available to care for patients needing highly specialized critical care. Shortage of ICU beds in many regions of the world and the constant fire-fighting to make these beds available through various ICU management policies motivated this study. The paper discusses the application of a generic system dynamics model of emergency patient flow in a typical hospital, populated with empirical evidence found in the medical and hospital administration literature, to explore the dynamics of intended and unintended consequences of such ICU management policies under a natural disaster crisis scenario. ICU management policies that can be implemented by a single hospital on short notice, namely premature transfer from ICU, boarding in ward, and general ward admission control, along with their possible combinations, are modeled and their impact on managerial and health outcome measures are investigated. The main insight out of the study is that the general ward admission control policy outperforms the rest of ICU management policies under such crisis scenarios with regards to reducing total mortality, which is counter intuitive for hospital administrators as this policy is not very effective at alleviating the symptoms of the problem, namely high ED and ICU occupancy rates that are closely monitored by hospital management particularly in times of crisis. A multivariate sensitivity analysis on parameters with diverse range of values in the literature found the superiority of the general ward admission control to hold true in every scenario.

Informing management on the future structure of hospital care: an extrapolation of trends in demand and costs in lung diseases

OBJECTIVE

The planning of health care management benefits from understanding future trends in demand and costs. In the case of lung diseases in the national German hospital market, we therefore analyze the current structure of care, and forecast future trends in key process indicators.

METHODS

We use standardized, patient-level, activity-based costing from a national cost calculation data set of respiratory cases, representing 11.9-14.1 % of all cases in the major diagnostic category "respiratory system" from 2006 to 2012. To forecast hospital admissions, length of stay (LOS), and costs, the best adjusted models out of possible autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models are used.

RESULTS

The number of cases is predicted to increase substantially, from 1.1 million in 2006 to 1.5 million in 2018 (+2.7 % each year). LOS is expected to decrease from 7.9 to 6.1 days, and overall costs to increase from 2.7 to 4.5 billion euros (+4.3 % each year). Except for lung cancer (-2.3 % each year), costs for all respiratory disease areas increase: surgical interventions +9.2 % each year, COPD +3.9 %, bronchitis and asthma +1.7 %, infections +2.0 %, respiratory failure +2.6 %, and other diagnoses +8.5 % each year. The share of costs of surgical interventions in all costs of respiratory cases increases from 17.8 % in 2006 to 30.8 % in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall costs are expected to increase particularly because of an increasing share of expensive surgical interventions and rare diseases, and because of higher intensive care, operating room, and diagnostics and therapy costs.

Not Just the Demographic Change--The Impact of Trends in Risk Factor Prevalences on the Prediction of Future Cases of Myocardial Infarction

Background

Previous predictions of population morbidity consider demographic changes only. To model future morbidity, however, changes in prevalences of risk factors should be considered. We calculated the number of incident cases of first myocardial infarction (MI) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in 2017 considering the effects of demographic changes and trends in the prevalences of major risk factors simultaneously.

Methods

Data basis of the analysis were two population-based cohorts of the German Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-baseline [1997–2001] and the 5-year follow-up and SHIP-Trend-baseline [2008–2011] respectively). SHIP-baseline data were used to calculate the initial coefficients for major risk factors for MI with a Poisson regression model. The dependent variable was the number of incident cases of MI between SHIP-baseline and SHIP-5-year follow-up. Explanatory variables were sex, age, a validated diagnosis of hypertension and/or diabetes, smoking, waist circumference (WC), increased blood levels of triglycerides (TG) and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and low blood levels of high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL). Applying the coefficients determined for SHIP baseline to risk factor prevalences, derived from the new cohort SHIP-Trend together with population forecast data, we calculated the projected number of incident cases of MI in 2017.

Results

Except for WC and smoking in females, prevalences of risk factors in SHIP-Trend-baseline were lower compared to SHIP-baseline. Based on demographic changes only, the calculated incidence of MI for 2017 compared to the reference year 2006 yields an increase of MI (males: +11.5%, females: +8.0%). However, a decrease of MI (males: -23.7%, females: -17.1%) is shown considering the changes in the prevalences of risk factors in the projection.

Conclusions

The predicted number of incident cases of MI shows large differences between models with and without considering changes in the prevalences of major risk factors. Hence, the prediction of incident MI should preferably not only be based on demographic changes.

Exploring the ecology of Canada's publicly funded residential long-term care bed supply

Despite Canada's increasing population of seniors and the varying long-term care (LTC) strategies that provinces have implemented, little research has focused on understanding the extent to which publicly funded residential LTC bed supply varies across provinces, or the factors influencing this variation. Our study involved an analysis in which we examined the association of three select jurisdictional characteristics with LTC bed supply: population age demographics, provincial wealth, and provincial investments in home care. No significant cross-jurisdictional "ecology" or inter-relatedness was found between the variation in LTC bed supply and any of the examined variables. Interprovincial variation in bed supply also did not statistically influence alternate level of care days specific to LTC waits, suggesting that these days were not influenced simply by differences in LTC bed supply and that other provincial-level factors were in play.

The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?

Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a) briefly describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b) discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c) investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.

Opportunities and risks of diagnostic lab-on-a-chip systems in healthcare from a health system stakeholder’s perspective

Aim: The aim of personalized medicine is to respond to the needs of individuals with appropriate treatment. Lab-on-a-chip systems (LOCs) can help to individualize therapeutic algorithms at the point of care. Herein, we discuss the perspectives, demands and concerns associated with LOCs. Methods: Interviews with 30 experts in the field of personalized medicine were conducted, addressing the requirements, potentials and risks of LOCs. The interviews were transcribed and evaluated by means of qualitative content analysis. Results: The majority of experts emphasize a considerable potential for the lab-on-a-chip industry with the largest potential in the context of point-of-care diagnostics. The direct-to-costumer use is regarded as risky, in particular with respect to the reliability of the results. Conclusion: In addition to a major potential of the implementation of LOCs, their impact on delivery of healthcare have to be considered, and early communication between physicians and LOC developers and manufacturers have to be ensured.

Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland

Using nationally-representative register data for older people in Finland in period 1998-2003 we study how the number of days in acute hospital and long term institutional care services varies by age and proximity to death and how these use patterns change as mortality improves. Acute health care use depends more on proximity to death than on age, a finding often interpreted as showing that the need for care services among older people will be substantially less than would be expected based on the likely increase in population numbers. We show that this assumption is too optimistic for three reasons: (1) the increase in population numbers will be concentrated mainly among the "old old" where use of services is substantial; (2) earlier findings of much lower use of acute care services by older than younger people who are close to death are not observed; and (3) any savings in acute care are more than offset by greater use of residential long-term care (LTC). The main consequences of improving mortality are: (1) to postpone rather than to reduce overall demand for health care; (2) to shift the balance of care from acute to long-term care services; and (3) to increase considerably the average age of time spent in care. We further construct a new indicator "care-free life expectancy" based on number of days in hospital and long-term care to summarise care use patterns for cohorts under a range of plausible mortality assumptions. As mortality improves, lifetime use of acute hospital and long-term care after age 65 and the proportion of life spent in LTC increases for later cohorts, but the proportion spent in acute care decreases slightly.

Profiling the different needs and expectations of patients for population-based medicine: a case study using segmentation analysis

BACKGROUND

This study illustrates an evidence-based method for the segmentation analysis of patients that could greatly improve the approach to population-based medicine, by filling a gap in the empirical analysis of this topic. Segmentation facilitates individual patient care in the context of the culture, health status, and the health needs of the entire population to which that patient belongs. Because many health systems are engaged in developing better chronic care management initiatives, patient profiles are critical to understanding whether some patients can move toward effective self-management and can play a central role in determining their own care, which fosters a sense of responsibility for their own health. A review of the literature on patient segmentation provided the background for this research.

METHOD

First, we conducted a literature review on patient satisfaction and segmentation to build a survey. Then, we performed 3,461 surveys of outpatient services users. The key structures on which the subjects' perception of outpatient services was based were extrapolated using principal component factor analysis with varimax rotation. After the factor analysis, segmentation was performed through cluster analysis to better analyze the influence of individual attitudes on the results.

RESULTS

Four segments were identified through factor and cluster analysis: the "unpretentious," the "informed and supported," the "experts" and the "advanced" patients. Their policies and managerial implications are outlined.

CONCLUSIONS

With this research, we provide the following: - a method for profiling patients based on common patient satisfaction surveys that is easily replicable in all health systems and contexts;- a proposal for segments based on the results of a broad-based analysis conducted in the Italian National Health System (INHS).Segments represent profiles of patients requiring different strategies for delivering health services. Their knowledge and analysis might support an effort to build an effective population-based medicine approach.

Empirical analysis shows reduced cost data collection may be an efficient method in economic clinical trials

Background

Data collection for economic evaluation alongside clinical trials is burdensome and cost-intensive. Limiting both the frequency of data collection and recall periods can solve the problem. As a consequence, gaps in survey periods arise and must be filled appropriately. The aims of our study are to assess the validity of incomplete cost data collection and define suitable resource categories.

Methods

In the randomised KORINNA study, cost data from 234 elderly patients were collected quarterly over a 1-year period. Different strategies for incomplete data collection were compared with complete data collection. The sample size calculation was modified in response to elasticity of variance.

Results

Resource categories suitable for incomplete data collection were physiotherapy, ambulatory clinic in hospital, medication, consultations, outpatient nursing service and paid household help.

Cost estimation from complete and incomplete data collection showed no difference when omitting information from one quarter. When omitting information from two quarters, costs were underestimated by 3.9% to 4.6%.

With respect to the observed increased standard deviation, a larger sample size would be required, increased by 3%. Nevertheless, more time was saved than extra time would be required for additional patients.

Conclusion

Cost data can be collected efficiently by reducing the frequency of data collection. This can be achieved by incomplete data collection for shortened periods or complete data collection by extending recall windows. In our analysis, cost estimates per year for ambulatory healthcare and non-healthcare services in terms of three data collections was as valid and accurate as a four complete data collections. In contrast, data on hospitalisation, rehabilitation stays and care insurance benefits should be collected for the entire target period, using extended recall windows. When applying the method of incomplete data collection, sample size calculation has to be modified because of the increased standard deviation. This approach is suitable to enable economic evaluation with lower costs to both study participants and investigators.

Trial registration

The trial registration number is ISRCTN02893746

Telemedicine and telecare for older patients--a systematic review

Telemedicine is increasingly becoming a reality in medical care for the elderly. We performed a systematic literature review on telemedicine healthcare concepts for older patients. We included controlled studies in an ambulant setting that analyzed telemedicine interventions involving patients aged ≥60 years. 1585 articles matched the specified search criteria, thereof, 68 could be included in the review. Applications address an array of mostly frequent diseases, e.g. cardiovascular disease (N=37) or diabetes (N=18). The majority of patients is still living at home and is able to handle the telemedicine devices by themselves. In 59 of 68 articles (87%), the intervention can be categorized as monitoring. The largest proportion of telemedicine interventions consisted of measurements of vital signs combined with personal interaction between healthcare provider and patient (N=24), and concepts with only personal interaction (telephone or videoconferencing, N=14). The studies show predominantly positive results with a clear trend towards better results for "behavioral" endpoints, e.g. adherence to medication or diet, and self-efficacy compared to results for medical outcomes (e.g. blood pressure, or mortality), quality of life, and economic outcomes (e.g. costs or hospitalization). However, in 26 of 68 included studies, patients with characteristic limitations for older patients (e.g. cognitive and visual impairment, communication barriers, hearing problems) were excluded. A considerable number of projects use rather sophisticated technology (e.g. videoconferencing), limiting ready translation into routine care. Future research should focus on how to adapt systems to the individual needs and resources of elderly patients within the specific frameworks of the respective national healthcare systems.

Patterns of ambulatory medical care utilization in elderly patients with special reference to chronic diseases and multimorbidity--results from a claims data based observational study in Germany

BACKGROUND

In order to estimate the future demands for health services, the analysis of current utilization patterns of the elderly is crucial. The aim of this study is to analyze ambulatory medical care utilization by elderly patients in relation to age, gender, number of chronic conditions, patterns of multimorbidity, and nursing dependency in Germany.

METHODS

Claims data of the year 2004 from 123,224 patients aged 65 years and over which are members of one nationwide operating statutory insurance company in Germany were studied. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of 3 or more chronic conditions of a list of 46 most prevalent chronic conditions based on ICD 10 diagnoses. Utilization was analyzed by the number of contacts with practices of physicians working in the ambulatory medical care sector and by the number of different physicians contacted for every single chronic condition and their most frequent triadic combinations. Main statistical analyses were multidimensional frequency counts with standard deviations and confidence intervals, and multivariable linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

Multimorbid patients had more than twice as many contacts per year with physicians than those without multimorbidity (36 vs. 16). These contact frequencies were associated with visits to 5.7 different physicians per year in case of multimorbidity vs. 3.5 when multimorbidity was not present. The number of contacts and of physicians contacted increased steadily with the number of chronic conditions. The number of contacts varied between 35 and 54 per year and the number of contacted physicians varied between 5 to 7, depending on the presence of individual chronic diseases and/or their triadic combinations. The influence of gender or age on utilization was small and clinically almost irrelevant. The most important factor influencing physician contact was the presence of nursing dependency due to disability.

CONCLUSION

In absolute terms, we found a very high rate of utilization of ambulatory medical care by the elderly in Germany, when multimorbidity and especially nursing dependency were present. The extent of utilization by the elderly was related both to the number of chronic conditions and to the individual multimorbidity patterns, but not to gender and almost not to age.

Optimal public provision of nursing homes and the role of information

Increasing demand for long-term care poses at least five challenges to the policy-maker: (i) How should care be supplied, within a nursing home or within the family? (ii) What level of care should be provided in the different arrangements? (iii) How do the answers relate to the severity of dependence? (iv) How can financial strain be mitigated for families with severely dependent members? (v) What is the role of information constraints for the nature and scope of optimal long-term care policy? We consider a theoretical model of long-term care provision under adverse selection to address these challenges. Our main - and remarkably robust - result is that nursing home care facilitates self selection and mitigates and possibly eliminates distortions in caring levels and transfers. Informational asymmetries may thus lead to care being provided too often within institutions rather than within a family context.

A population-based cohort study of ambulatory care service utilization among older adults

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Age-related effects on ambulatory care service utilization are not well understood. We aim to measure the utilization patterns of ambulatory health care services (i.e. family physician visits, specialist physician visits and emergency room visits) in the late life course (65 years and older).

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted for the period 1 April 2005 to 31 March 2006. All Ontario, Canada, residents aged 65+ and eligible for government health insurance were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

This population-based cohort study demonstrates considerable increase in utilization rates and variability of ambulatory services as age increases. Variations in utilization were observed by gender as overall women were more likely to consult a family physician, and men more likely to visit specialists and the emergency room. A small group of high users, constituting 5.5% of the total population, accounted for 18.7% of total ambulatory visits. Finally, we report socio-economic status (SES) based disparity for specialist services in which high users were more likely to have higher SES.

CONCLUSIONS

There is increasing utilization and variability in ambulatory service utilization with increase in age. Further research is required to explain the gender and SES differences reported in this study.

Self-rated health status transition and long-term care need, of the oldest Chinese

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this paper are: (1) to estimate the transition probabilities among self-rated health status for the oldest Chinese aged 80 and above; (2) to project the future need of long-term care due to changes in demography and health status among the oldest Chinese.

METHODS

Self-rated health data collected in Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey conducted in 1998, 2000 and 2002 were used to estimate the self-rated health status transition probabilities, and to project future long-term care need by calculating the number of unhealthy person-years.

RESULTS

The majority of the oldest Chinese's health status remains unchanged or worsens within 2 years. The number of unhealthy person-years rises regardless of gender, and the absolute number and increase rate of females are higher than those of males. Under the assumption that average care expenditure is 15 US dollars per hour in 2010, the long-term care expenditure will increase from 8352 million dollars in 2010 to 42,530 million dollars in 2050, a growth of more than 400% over the next 40 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term care need for the oldest Chinese will rise rapidly in the next decades, which should stimulate increased governmental and public awareness of their need.

Health care consequences of demographic changes in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania: projected case numbers for age-related diseases up to the year 2020, based on the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP)

BACKGROUND

The population in the German federal state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania is growing older. A resulting rise in age-related diseases will likely lead to a greater need for medical care, even though the population as a whole is declining. The predicted number of patients affected by these diseases varies from one district to another because of local differences in demographic trends.

METHODS

Case numbers were forecasted on the basis of representative data on the morbidity from chronic diseases, which were derived from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), the conjoint cancer registry of the East German federal states (GKR), and a study on dementia morbidity. These data were combined with demographic prognoses for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and its rural and urban districts up to the year 2020.

RESULTS

The largest increases in case numbers are predicted for dementia (+91.1%), myocardial infarction (+28.3%), diabetes mellitus (+21.4%), and incident colon carcinoma (+31.0%; all figures are expressed in relation to the year 2005 as a baseline). The predicted changes in case numbers vary widely from one district to another.

CONCLUSION

All of the German federal states located in the former East Germany are likely to experience similar developments to those predicted for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, as will many rural areas of the former West Germany, in which a demographic transition is already evident. Because of the predicted rise in the number of patients, new health care concepts will have to be rapidly developed, implemented, and evaluated in order to ensure that comprehensive medical care will be delivered where it is needed.

Modelling the Burden of Stroke in Finland until 2030

Background

It is well known that increasing age is the strongest risk factor of stroke. Therefore, it has been a common belief in many countries including Finland that the numbers of stroke patients will increase considerably during the next two decades because the population is rapidly ageing.

Methods

The FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers operated in Finland in the Kuopio area and city of Turku from 1983 to 1997. The results showed that the incidence, mortality and case fatality of stroke declined significantly during that period. Importantly, it was established that the trends in incidence and mortality were also declining among the elderly (>74 years). We used these results to create a model for the entire country. The model was based on the trends present in these registers from Turku and Kuopio area and age-specific population projections up to the year 2030 that were obtained from Statistics Finland.

Results

In the year 2000, the number of new first stroke cases was estimated to be 11500. If the declining trend were to level off totally after the year 2000, the number of new strokes would be 20100 in the year 2030 due to the ageing of the population. It would be 12100 if the trend continued as favourable as during the years 1983–1997.

Conclusions

Ageing of the population will not inevitably increase the burden of stroke in Finland if the present declining trends are maintained, but the annual number of cases will almost double if the incidence remains at the level of the year 2000.

What has influenced patient health-care expenditures in Japan?: variables of age, death, length of stay, and medical care

This study considers variables related to health-care expenditures associated with aging and long-term hospitalization in Japan. We focused on daily per capita inpatient health-care expenditures, and examined the impact of inpatient characteristics such as sex, age, survived or deceased, length of stay, adult disease, and type of medical care received during the duration of each stay. We analyzed data from the Survey of Medical-Care Activities in Public Health Insurance by multinomial logistic regression analyses. Age of patient had little impact on per capita inpatient health-care expenditures per day. As regards length of stay, inpatient stays of 8-14 days had a little impact on health-care expenditures. This study suggested that these results might be due to the kind of medical care received. More research is needed to determine the appropriate medical services to reduce long-term hospitalization. In the last month of care for patients who died, medical examinations had a great influence on health-care expenditures. This study showed that increasing medical examinations in the end-of-life care needs further investigation.

Care utilisation in the last years of life in relation to age and time to death: results from a Swedish urban population of the oldest old

The majority of older people experience progressive disability at the end of their lives and require long-term care as a result. This study analysed patterns of care utilisation during the 5 years prior to death, particularly the effects of age and time to death in relation to the use of public elder care (i.e. home help services and institutional care) and hospital care. A longitudinal study provided data on care utilisation among participants (aged 83+) who died between 1995 and 2004 (n = 567). Almost everyone received some kind of care in the last 5 years, 91% in the last year and 88% in the last 3 months preceding death. The number of days of elder care outnumbered the number of days in hospital by ten to one. Increasing chronological age was important for receipt of home help, whereas time to death was important for admission to hospital; there was a sharp increase in the proportion treated in hospital in the last 9 months before death. The proportion residing in institutional care facilities with around-the-clock care increased steadily with a sharper gradient 6 months before death. Both age and time to death had an effect on use of institutional care, but time to death had twice the effect of increasing age. In conclusion, age and time to death have different effects depending on the type of care studied, and individual-based longitudinal data gives a very different picture of care utilisation among the oldest old compared to cross-sectional data.

Service utilization and health-care costs in the advanced elderly

OBJECTIVES

Despite their increasing importance, the advanced elderly are often neglected in service utilization and costing studies. The purpose of this study was to analyze from societal perspective service utilization and direct health-care costs and its predictors in the advanced elderly population.

METHODS

A bottom-up costing study was conducted using a cross-sectional primary care sample aged 75+ (n = 452) in Germany. The main instruments were a questionnaire of service utilization and costs administered by an interviewer and the chronic disease score (CDS). Predictors were derived by means of multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

Respondents caused mean direct costs of Euro 3730 (95% CI 3203-4257) in prices of 2004/2005. This included inpatient care 34%, pharmaceuticals 29%, outpatient physician services 15%, nursing care 10%, medical supply and dentures 6%, outpatient nonphysician providers 5%, assisted living 1%, and transportation 2%. A shift from lower to middle education and a one-point increase in CDS were associated with an increase of 1678 Euro (95% CI 250-3369) and 482 Euro (95% CI 316-654), respectively. Total mean direct costs did not differ significantly between sexes. Ischemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus were associated with excess costs of 711 Euro and 290 Euro, both being not significant. Altogether 55% of the respondents accounted for 90% of total direct costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced elderly used a wide range of health services. Our study still underestimates the true costs to society. Further research should focus on economic evaluation of new health-care programs for this increasingly important age group.

Growing old at home - a randomized controlled trial to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive home visits to reduce nursing home admissions: study protocol [NCT00644826]

Background

Regarding demographic changes in Germany it can be assumed that the number of elderly and the resulting need for long term care is increasing in the near future. It is not only an individual's interest but also of public concern to avoid a nursing home admission. Current evidence indicates that preventive home visits can be an effective way to reduce the admission rate in this way making it possible for elderly people to stay longer at home than without home visits. As the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive home visits strongly depends on existing services in the social and health system existing international results cannot be merely transferred to Germany. Therefore it is necessary to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention in Germany by a randomized controlled trial.

Methods

The trial is designed as a prospective multi-center randomized controlled trial in the cities of Halle and Leipzig. The trial includes an intervention and a control group. The control group receives usual care. The intervention group receives three additional home visits by non-physician health professionals (1) geriatric assessment, (2) consultation, (3) booster session.

The nursing home admission rate after 18 months will be defined as the primary outcome. An absolute risk reduction from a 20% in the control-group to a 7% admission rate in the intervention group including an assumed drop out rate of 30% resulted in a required sample size of N = 320 (n = 160 vs. n = 160).

Parallel to the clinical outcome measurement the intervention will be evaluated economically. The economic evaluation will be performed from a society perspective.

Discussion

To the authors' knowledge for the first time a trial will investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive home visits for people aged 80 and over in Germany using the design of a randomized controlled trial. Thus, the trial will contribute to the existing evidence on preventive home visits especially in Germany.

Hospitalisation among the elderly in urban China

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine the trend of hospitalisation amongst the elderly in urban China and analyse the main socio-economic factors which are affecting the use of inpatient care.

METHODS

Data from the Chinese national household health interview surveys conducted in 1993, 1998 and 2003 were analysed. The following variables were selected: gender, health insurance coverage and household income.

RESULTS

Elderly people with insurance are more likely to use inpatient services than those who were not insured. Elderly people in the low income group are less likely than ones in the high income group to use inpatient services. Non-hospitalisation is more common amongst elderly women than elderly men and amongst the non-insured. The likelihood of elderly people in the low income groups not using inpatient services has increased dramatically from 12% in 1993 to 134% in 2003. Financial difficulty appeared to be the most common reason for not accessing inpatient care, particularly for elderly people without health insurance.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly people with low income, without health insurance, and women appear to be more vulnerable in their access to inpatient care. Appropriate policies could be developed to protect these groups of people from high health care expenses.

The impact of aging on long-term care in Europe and some potential policy responses

The article examines recent data on the impact of increasing numbers of elderly people in Europe on expenditures for long-term care services. After reviewing recent and projected future costs of long-term care, the authors examine current national strategies for long-term care as well as potential policy options that could reduce future expenditures due to aging. Although long-term care expenditures in Europe will rise over the next several decades, countries can adopt a variety of strategies--many of them in social sectors outside the health system--to reduce or mitigate the overall effects of likely long-term care needs.

Use of major and minor tranquilizers with older patients in an acute care hospital: an exploratory study

AIM

This paper reports a study to determine how many older patients are prescribed major and/or minor tranquilizers during their hospital stay, and the perceptions of acute care nursing staff towards the use of such medications with older hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND

While considerable research exists on the use of major and minor tranquilizers (chemical restraints) with older people in long-term care, scant research has addressed the use of these drugs with older patients in acute care hospitals. Given the growing numbers of older people with dementia and delirium in hospitals, and the risks these drugs pose to older people, more research on the use of chemical restraints by nurses with older hospital patients is needed.

METHODS

Computerized pharmacy records were used to access data on prescriptions of major and minor tranquilizers to older patients during one month on six hospital units (total n = 498), and 140 nursing staff from these units completed the Perceptions of (Chemical) Restraint Use Questionnaire. The data were collected in 2003.

RESULTS

A minority of older patients (8.63%) were prescribed a major or minor tranquilizer during the one-month data collection period. The numbers prescribed minor tranquilizers (6.22%, n = 31) were approximately double that of major tranquilizers (3.21%, n = 16). The majority of prescriptions for minor and major tranquilizers were written as pro re nata or 'as needed' (77% and 55.8%, respectively). Nurses' scores on the Perceptions of (Chemical) Restraint Use Questionnaire indicated perceptions consistent with liberal use of chemical restraints, and several of the highly rated reasons for giving such medications could be considered inappropriate.

CONCLUSIONS

While these findings suggest that only a small number of older people were prescribed chemical restraint medications in hospital, the risks these medications pose warrants ongoing prudence. More nursing research and education on the use of these medications with older people in hospital settings is needed.