Risk stratification of emergency department patients with chest pain

Indirect comparison of TIMI, HEART and GRACE for predicting major cardiovascular events in patients admitted to the emergency department with acute chest pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The study aimed to compare the predictive values of the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI); History, Electrocardiography, Age, Risk factors and Troponin (HEART) and Global Registry in Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scoring systems for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in acute chest pain (ACP) patients admitted to the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library from their inception to June 2020; we compared the following parameters: sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR), diagnostic OR (DOR) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC).

RESULTS

The pooled sensitivity and specificity for TIMI, HEART and GRACE were 0.95 and 0.36, 0.96 and 0.50, and 0.78 and 0.56, respectively. The pooled PLR and NLR for TIMI, HEART and GRACE were 1.49 and 0.13, 1.94 and 0.08, and 1.77 and 0.40, respectively. The pooled DOR for TIMI, HEART and GRACE was 9.18, 17.92 and 4.00, respectively. The AUC for TIMI, HEART and GRACE was 0.80, 0.80 and 0.70, respectively. Finally, the results of indirect comparison suggested the superiority of values of TIMI and HEART to those of GRACE for predicting MACEs, while there were no significant differences between TIMI and HEART for predicting MACEs.

CONCLUSIONS

TIMI and HEART were superior to GRACE for predicting MACE risk in ACP patients admitted to the ED.

The interobserver agreement of the HEART-score, a multicentre prospective study

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Chest pain is one of the most common presentations to the emergency department (ED). The HEART-score is used to assess the 30-day risk of developing a major adverse cardiac event (MACE). The HEART-score enables clinicians to classify patients in low, intermediate, or high-risk groups though little is known as to whether this can be done reliably and reproducibly in a prehospital setting.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare the interobserver agreement of the HEART-score between ambulance nurses and ED physicians.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS

Patients ≥18 years, with chest pain of suspected cardiac origin presented by ambulance to the EDs of four regional hospitals, were prospectively enrolled between October 2018 and April 2019.

OUTCOMES MEASURE AND ANALYSIS

The primary endpoint was interobserver agreement of the HEART-scores calculated by ambulance nurses compared to those calculated by ED physicians. Agreement was measured using Cohen's Kappa (K) both for overall HEART-score and dichotomized HEART categories. A secondary endpoint was the occurrence of a MACE at 30 days after inclusion.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 307 patients were enrolled of which 166 patients were male (54%). The mean age was 64.8 years. In 23% (95% confidence interval, 18-27), patients were scored in the low-risk category by both ambulance nurses and ED physicians. The K for the overall HEART-score compared between ambulance nurses and ED physicians was 0.514. The K for the low-risk category versus intermediate and high-risk category was 0.591. Both are defined as 'moderate'. MACE within 30 days occurred in 64 patients (21%). In the low-risk group as defined by the ambulance nurses, there was a 7% risk of MACE compared to an average 5% MACE risk in the ED physician group.

CONCLUSIONS

The moderate interobserver agreement of the HEART-score does not currently support the use of the HEART-score by ambulance nurses in a prehospital setting. Training for prehospital nurses is vital to ensure that they are able to calculate the HEART-score accurately.

Prognosticating Clinical Prediction Scores Without Clinical Gestalt for Patients With Chest Pain in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Assessment of patients with chest pain is a regular challenge in the emergency department (ED). Recent guidelines recommended quantitative assessment of ischemic risk by means of risk scores.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to assess the performance of Thrombosis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI); Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE); history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin (HEART) scores; and the North America Chest Pain Rule (NACPR) without components of clinical gestalt in predicting 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE).

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study in adult patients who attended the ED with undifferentiated chest pain. Clinical prediction rules were applied and calculated. The clinical prediction rules were modified from the original ones, excluding components requiring judgment by clinical gestalt. The primary outcome was MACE. Performance of the tests were evaluated by receive operating characteristic curves and the area under curves (AUC).

RESULTS

There were 1081 patients included in the study. Thirty-day MACE occurred in 164 (15.2%) patients. The AUC of the GRACE score was 0.756, which was inferior to the TIMI score (AUC 0.809) and the HEART score (AUC 0.845). A TIMI score ≥ 1 had a sensitivity of 97% and a specificity of 45.7%. A GRACE score ≥ 50 had a sensitivity of 99.4% and a specificity of 7.5%. A HEART score ≥ 1 had a sensitivity of 98.8% and a specificity of 11.7%. The NACPR had a sensitivity of 93.3% and a specificity of 51.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Without clinical gestalt, the modified HEART score had the best discriminative capacity in predicting 30-day MACE.

The Impact of Unstable Angina Guidelines in the Triage of Emergency Department Patients with Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome

Objective. The primary aim of this study is to determine whether implementing the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) Unstable Angina Practice Guideline improves emergency physician's decision making in patients with symptoms of possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including those for whom the diagnosis of unstable angina is uncertain. Methods. The authors conducted a prospective guideline implementation trial with pre-post design in the emergency departments of 1 university hospital and 1 university-affiliated community teaching hospital from January 2000 to May 2001. They enrolled 1140 adults who presented with chest pain or other symptoms of possible ACS. The intervention included the following: 1) physician training in use of the AHCPR risk groups, 2) algorithm for risk stratification, and 3) group feedback. To determine how accurately physicians interpreted the guideline algorithm, the authors compared their risk ratings with actual guideline risk groups. Results. No significant difference in physician triage decisions was observed between baseline and intervention periods. Analysis of physician's risk ratings during the intervention period revealed low overall concordance with actual guideline risk groups (kappa = 0.31); however, physician's risk ratings showed superior discrimination in identifying patients with confirmed ACS (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] area .81 v. .74, P = 0.008). Strict adherence to guideline recommendations would have resulted in hospitalizing 9% more non-ACS patients without lowering the rate of missed ACS. Conclusion. Implementation of the AHCPR guideline did not improve triage decisions in emergency department patients with possible ACS. Assessing physician triage solely based on concordance with the AHCPR guideline may not accurately reflect the quality of patient care.

Medical consumption compared for TIMI and HEART score in chest pain patients at the emergency department: a retrospective cost analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate which risk score (TIMI score or HEART score) identifies the largest population of low-risk patients at the emergency department (ED). Furthermore, we retrospectively calculated the corresponding expected decrease in medical consumption if these patients would have been discharged from the ED.

METHODS

We performed analyses in two hospitals of the multicentre prospective validation study of the HEART score, executed in 2008 and 2009. Patients with chest pain presenting to the ED were included and information was collected on major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) and on hospital admissions and diagnostic procedures within 6 weeks. The TIMI and HEART score were calculated for each patient.

RESULTS

We analysed 640 patients (59% male, mean age of 60, cumulative incidence of MACE 17%). An estimated total of €763 468 was spent during follow-up on hospital admission and diagnostic procedures. In total, 256 (40%) patients had a HEART score of 0-3 and were considered low risk (miss rate 1.6%), a total of €64 107 was spent on diagnostic procedures and hospital admission after initial presentation in this group. In comparison, 105 (16%) patients with TIMI score of 0 were considered low risk (miss rate 0%), with a total of €14 670 spent on diagnostic procedures and initial hospital admission costs. With different cut-offs for low risk, HEART 0-2 (miss rate 0.7%), would have resulted in a total of €25 365 in savings, compared with €71 905 when an alternative low risk cut-off for TIMI of TIMI≤1 would be used (miss rate 3.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

The HEART score identifies more patients as low risk compared with the TIMI score, which may lead to a larger reduction in diagnostic procedures and costs in this low-risk group. Future studies should prospectively investigate whether adhering to the HEART score in clinical practice and early discharge of low-risk patients is safe and leads to a reduction in medical consumption.

Diagnostic performance of reproducible chest wall tenderness to rule out acute coronary syndrome in acute chest pain: a prospective diagnostic study

OBJECTIVES

Acute chest pain (ACP) is a leading cause of hospital emergency unit consultation. As there are various underlying conditions, ranging from musculoskeletal disorders to acute coronary syndrome (ACS), thorough clinical diagnostics are warranted. The aim of this prospective study was to assess whether reproducible chest wall tenderness (CWT) on palpation in patients with ACP can help to rule out ACS.

METHODS

In this prospective, double-blinded diagnostic study, all consecutive patients assessed in the emergency unit at the University Hospital Zurich because of ACP between July 2012 and December 2013 were included when a member of the study team was present. Reproducible CWT on palpation was the initial step and was recorded before further examinations were initiated. The final diagnosis was adjudicated by a study-independent physician.

RESULTS

121 patients (60.3% male, median age 47 years, IQR 34-66.5 years) were included. The prevalence of ACS was 11.6%. Non-reproducible CWT had a high sensitivity of 92.9% (95% CI 66.1% to 98.8%) for ACS and the presence of reproducible CWT ruled out ACS (p=0.003) with a high negative predictive value (98.1%, 95% CI 89.9% to 99.7%). Conversely non-reproducible CWT ruled in ACS with low specificity (48.6%, 95% CI 38.8% to 58.5%) and low positive predictive value (19.1%, 95% CI 10.6% to 30.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

This prospective diagnostic study supports the concept that reproducible CWT helps to rule out ACS in patients with ACP in an early stage of the evaluation process. However, ACS and other diagnoses should be considered in patients with a negative CWT test.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01724996.

HEART score to further risk stratify patients with low TIMI scores

OBJECTIVE

The ability to risk stratify patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with potential acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is critical. The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score can risk stratify ED patients with potential ACS but cannot identify patients safe for ED discharge. The symptom-based HEART score identifies very low-risk patients. Our hypothesis was that patients with a TIMI score of 0 or 1 may be stratified further with the HEART score to identify a group of patients at less than 1% risk of 30-day cardiovascular events.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study in a tertiary care hospital ED. Patients with potential ACS who were >30 years of age were included. Data collected included demographics, history, electrocardiogram, laboratories, and components of the TIMI and HEART scores. Follow-up was conducted by structured record review and phone. The main outcome was a composite of death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization at 30 days.

RESULTS

There were 8815 patients enrolled (mean age, 52.8 ± 15.1 years; 57% women, and 69% black). At 30 days, the composite event rate was 8.0% (660 patients): 108 deaths, 410 acute myocardial infarction, and 301 revascularizations. Of the 485 patients with both a TIMI score of 0 and a HEART score of 0, there were no cardiovascular events (95% confidence interval, 0-0.8%); but no other score combination had an upper limit confidence interval less than 1%.

CONCLUSION

At all levels of TIMI score, the HEART score was able to further substratify patients with respect to 30-day risk. A HEART score of 0 in a patient with a TIMI of 0 identified a group of patients at less than 1% risk for 30-day adverse events.

Developing a research agenda for cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk rural communities

The National Institutes of Health convened a workshop to engage researchers and practitioners in dialogue on research issues viewed as either unique or of particular relevance to rural areas, key content areas needed to inform policy and practice in rural settings, and ways rural contexts may influence study design, implementation, assessment of outcomes, and dissemination. Our purpose was to develop a research agenda to address the disproportionate burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related risk factors among populations living in rural areas. Complementary presentations used theoretical and methodological principles to describe research and practice examples from rural settings. Participants created a comprehensive CVD research agenda that identified themes and challenges, and provided 21 recommendations to guide research, practice, and programs in rural areas.

Systolic blood pressure at Emergency Department presentation and 1-year mortality in acute chest pain patients

BACKGROUND

High blood pressure at rest has been an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However the relationship between Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) and 1-year-mortality among acute chest pain patients presenting to Emergency Department (ED); and effects of preexisting renal insufficiency, hemodynamic stress - as quantified by Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) and chest pain duration, on this relationship is unknown.

METHODS

Data was used from APACE (Advantageous Predictors of Acute Coronary Syndrome Evaluation), a prospective observational multicenter study of 1240 ED chest pain patients. SBP at presentation was categorized into quartiles: Q1≤127mmHg; Q2 128-142mmHg; Q3 143-160mmHg; Q4≥161mmHg.

RESULTS

60 deaths occurred during 1-year. One-year-mortality-rate showed lower Hazard Ratios for Q2, Q3 and Q4 vs Q1 (HR [95% CI]; 0.39 (0.19-0.78), 0.34 (0.17-0.70), 0.35 (0.17-0.72); p<0.01 respectively). Cox model adjusted for various demographic and treatment variables showed that participants in Q3 and Q4 had better prognoses than Q1. Patients showed progressively better prognosis from Q2 through Q4 vs Q1 only in patients who presented to ED with for more than 12h of chest pain duration. Patients with renal insufficiency had lower SBP at presentation than others (p=0.001). There was no association between the outcome and interaction variable of SBP quartiles and BNP (p=0.27).

CONCLUSION

Acute chest pain patients presenting to ED exhibit an inverse association between SBP at presentation and 1-year-mortality; a relationship which appears stronger in those who present with chest pain of greater than 12h duration.

High-risk chief complaints I: chest pain--the big three

Chest pain is one of the most frequently seen chief complaints in patients presenting to emergency departments, and is considered to be a "high-risk" chief complaint. The differential diagnosis for chest pain is broad, and potential causes range from the benign to the immediately life-threatening. Although many (if not most) emergency department patients with chest pain do not have an immediately life-threatening condition, correct diagnoses can be difficult to make, incorrect diagnoses may lead to catastrophic therapies, and failure to make a timely diagnosis may contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Several atraumatic "high-risk" causes of chest pain are discussed in this article, including myocardial infarction and ischemia, thoracic aortic dissection, and pulmonary embolism. Also included are brief discussions of tension pneumothorax, esophageal perforation, and cardiac tamponade.

Improving resource utilization in a teaching hospital: development of a nonteaching service for chest pain admissions

PURPOSE

Exclusion of acute coronary syndrome frequently prompts a brief hospital admission for a large proportion of patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain. At hospitals with residency programs, the volume of such patients creates pressures on these programs because of the limit on the number of patients a resident can accept in a given period. These restrictions have been instituted by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME). The authors hypothesized that a nonteaching service designed to identify and admit low-risk chest pain patients should reduce those pressures.

METHOD

A hospitalist-directed nonteaching service (NTS) was created to admit low-risk chest pain patients at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania. Patients' admission service was based upon the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score. From September 2003 to June 2004, patients (n = 113) with scores of 0 or 1 (showing low risk) were admitted to the NTS. Simultaneously, a similar group of low-risk chest pain patients (n = 205) were admitted to a traditional internal medicine resident-based service (RBS).

RESULTS

The NTS patients had a lower median length of stay (23 hours versus 33 hours; p < .0001) and lower median hospital charges ($8,545 versus $14,150; p < .0001) when compared with the low-risk patients on the RBS.

CONCLUSIONS

The development of an NTS for chest pain admissions can assist residency programs in their efforts to meet the ACGME program requirements. The TIMI risk score can be used as a tool to assist in the identification of low-risk chest pain patients.

Patient-related variables predicting acute coronary syndrome following admission for chest pain of possible coronary origin

OBJECTIVE

Improving risk stratification of patients experiencing acute chest pain with non-revealing electrocardiogram and cardiac biomarkers could reduce missed acute coronary syndrome and avoid unnecessary hospitalization.

METHODS

We assessed the ability of situational, circumstantial, and other patient-related variables in predicting acute coronary syndrome in 921 consecutive patients randomly admitted to this medical department with chest pain of possible coronary origin. A reference group comprised 107 patients referred promptly to the coronary care unit with acute myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Acute coronary syndrome eventually developed in 219 (23.7%) patients. Age and proportions of male patients and those with diabetes, which were significantly lower in the heterogeneous chest pain group than in the reference group, did not differ when re-evaluation was performed between the latter group and the subgroup of patients who eventually developed acute coronary syndrome. Overweight and a family history of premature coronary artery disease remained significantly higher in the reference group, while prevalence of pre-existing coronary artery disease, previous coronary angiography, and coronary intervention remained significantly lower. Variables most significantly predictive of acute coronary syndrome resulted: pre-existing coronary artery disease [odds ratio (OR) 3.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-4.71; P<0.001), older age (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.17-1.57; P<0.001), male sex (OR 1.77; 95% CI 1.19-2.61; P=0.004), diabetes (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.11-2.32; P=0.01), self-initiation of pain relief treatment before seeking medical help (OR 1.54; 95% CI 1.07-2.23; P=0.02), and conviction that hospitalization for acute coronary disease was mandatory (OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.03-2.07; P=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Easily obtainable patient-related variables might improve risk stratification and assist physicians to decide on policy in the emergency department and upon hospitalization.

Assessment of the standardized reporting guidelines ECG classification system: the presenting ECG predicts 30-day outcomes

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Standardized reporting criteria for risk stratification studies of patients with potential acute coronary syndromes have been proposed. We sought to determine whether the categories in the recommended 6-item ECG classification system predict rates of 30-day death, myocardial infarction, and revascularization.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of emergency department (ED) chest pain patients who presented to a tertiary care center during a 32-month period. The treating physician classified all ECGs into defined categories. Patients were followed up for 30 days to determine death, myocardial infarction, and revascularization. Our main outcome was the rate of triple composite endpoint of death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization at 30 days from ED presentation in relation to the ECG classification category.

RESULTS

There were 3,814 patients who presented to the ED a total of 4,487 times during the study period. Patients had a mean (+/-SD) age of 51.8+/-15.9 years, were more likely to be women (59%) than men, and were most commonly black (68%). The relationship between initial ECG classification and 30-day outcome was highly significant (P<.001), with event rates ranging from 3.2% to 72.7%, depending on ECG classification category.

CONCLUSION

The ECG classification system that is being recommended in the standardized guidelines predicts 30-day composite rates of death, acute myocardial infarction, and revascularization.