Population viability of stream-resident salmonids after habitat fragmentation: a case study with white-spotted charr (Salvelinus leucomaenis) by an individual based model

A modeling approach to forecast local demographic trends in metapopulations

Predicting animal population trajectories into the future has become a central exercise in both applied and fundamental ecology. Because demographic models classically assume population closure, they tend to provide inaccurate predictions when applied locally to interconnected subpopulations that are part of a larger metapopulation. Ideally, one should explicitly model dispersal among subpopulations, but in practice this is prevented by the difficulty of estimating dispersal rates in the wild. To forecast the local demography of connected subpopulations, we developed a new demographic model (hereafter, the two-scale model) that disentangles two processes occurring at different spatial scales. First, at the larger scale, a closed population model describes changes in metapopulation size over time. Second, total metapopulation size is redistributed among subpopulations, using time-varying proportionality parameters. This two-step approach ensures that the long-term growth of every subpopulation is constrained by the overall metapopulation growth rate. It implicitly accounts for the interconnectedness among subpopulations and avoids unrealistic trajectories. Using realistic simulations, we compared the performance of this new model with that of a classical closed population model at predicting subpopulations' trajectories over 30 years. While the classical model predicted future subpopulation sizes with an average bias of 30% and produced predictive errors sometimes >500%, the two-scale model showed very little bias (<3%) and never produced predictive errors >20%. We also applied both models to a real dataset on European shags (Gulosus aristotelis) breeding along the Atlantic coast of France. Again, the classical model predicted highly unrealistic growths, as large as a 200-fold increase over 30 years for some subpopulations. The two-scale model predicted very sensible growths, never larger than a threefold increase over the 30-year time horizon, which is more in accordance with this species' life history. This two-scale model provides an effective solution to forecast the local demography of connected subpopulations in the absence of data on dispersal rates. In this context, it is a better alternative than closed population models and a more parsimonious option than full-dispersal models. Because the only data required are simple counts, this model could be useful to many large-scale wildlife monitoring programs.

Using PVA and captive breeding to balance trade-offs in the rescue of the island dibbler onto a new island ark

In the face of the current global extinction crisis, it is critical we give conservation management strategies the best chance of success. Australia is not exempt from global trends with currently the world’s greatest mammal extinction rate (~ 1 per 8 years). Many more are threatened including the dibbler (Parantechinus apicalis) whose remnant range has been restricted to Western Australia at just one mainland site and two small offshore islands—Whitlock Island (5 ha) and Boullanger Island (35 ha). Here, we used 14 microsatellite markers to quantify genetic variation in the remaining island populations from 2013 to 2018 and incorporated these data into population viability analysis (PVA) models, used to assess factors important to dibbler survival and to provide guidance for translocations. Remnant population genetic diversity was low (< 0.3), and populations were highly divergent from each other (pairwise F_STs 0.29–0.52). Comparison of empirical data to an earlier study is consistent with recent declines in genetic diversity and models projected increasing extinction risk and declining genetic variation in the next century. Optimal translocation scenarios recommend 80 founders for new dibbler populations—provided by captive breeding—and determined the proportion of founders from parental populations to maximise genetic diversity and minimise harvesting impact. The goal of our approach is long-term survival of genetically diverse, self-sustaining populations and our methods are transferable. We consider mixing island with mainland dibblers to reinforce genetic variation.

Environmental DNA revealed the fish community of Hokkaido Island, Japan, after invasion by rainbow trout

In freshwater ecosystems, invasive salmonid fishes can have a significant impact on native fish species. Detecting the invasion and its negative effects is critical for the conservation of native fish communities. We examined the species composition and seasonal changes in the freshwater fish community, including salmonids, on the Kamikawa Plain, Hokkaido Island, Japan, using environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding. We detected 23 fish species in 176 samples collected from 16 sites over 12 months (October 2018 - August 2019). Between 11 and 20 species were detected at each site, including five native salmonids (Oncorhynchus masou, Oncorhynchus keta, Parahucho perryi, Salvelinus leucomaenis leucomaenis and Salvelinus malma krascheninnikova). The invasive alien rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss was detected at all 16 sites and it was the most commonly detected salmonid. Although we found no obvious competitive exclusion of native salmonids by rainbow trout in the study area, the invasive species occurred more often and at more sites than any of the natives. We also determined the occurrence and seasonal changes in the fish community, classified as native salmonids, invasive rainbow trout, Cypriniformes and other benthic fishes. There were fewer species overall in winter, but the sites with higher species richness in winter were on the lower reaches of the river. In addition, we detected domestic invaders, such as the topmouth gudgeon, Pseudorasbora parva, although they were less prevalent than rainbow trout. These results show the effectiveness of eDNA metabarcoding, which can be used for surveying species richness at an ecosystem scale. In particular, the detection of the early stages of establishment and spread of invasive species can be achieved by eDNA monitoring.

Genetic Structure and Population Demography of White-Spotted Charr in the Upstream Watershed of a Large Dam

White-spotted charr (Salvelinus leucomaenis leucomaenis) is an anadromous fish that has been severely harmed by human land-use development, particularly through habitat fragmentation. However, the anthropogenic impacts on populations of this species have not been evaluated, except those on small dammed-off populations. Using multiplexed ISSR genotyping by sequencing, we investigated the genetic structure of white-spotted charr in four tributaries in the upper section of the Kanayama Dam in the Sorachi River, Hokkaido Island, Japan. There were no distinct genetic structures (FST = 0.014), probably because some active individuals migrate frequently among tributaries. By model-flexible demographic simulation, historical changes in the effective population size were inferred. The result indicates that the population size has decreased since the end of the last glacial period, with three major population decline events, including recent declines that were probably associated with recent human activities. Nevertheless, populations in the watershed upstream of the Kanayama Dam are still expected to be at low risk of immediate extinction, owing to the large watershed size and the limited number of small check dams. An effective conservation measure for sustaining the white-spotted charr population is to maintain high connectivity between tributaries, such as by providing fishways in check dams during construction.

Performance of a Pool and Weir Fishway for Iberian Cyprinids Migration: A Case Study

One of the movement barriers that fish populations must overcome for migration success in the upper basin of Tormes river (Salamanca, Spain) is a 20 m high dam. The design of its pool and weir fishway for potamodromous fishes (mostly Iberian barbel—Luciobarbus bocagei—and Northern straight-mouth nase—Pseudochondrostoma duriense) to overcome the obstacle was improved in 2013. The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of the fishway using FDX passive integrated transponder (PIT)-Tags inserted into the fish and PIT-Tag detection antennas at the fishway. During several sampling events, 7113 barbel and nase individuals were tagged and released at the point of capture along the basin (2538 and 4575 of which were tagged downstream and upstream, respectively). PIT-Tag Detection Antennas close to the top and bottom of the fishway monitored tagged fish continuously for 10 months (from March to December 2017), to analyze the performance of the fishway. Upstream passage efficiency was greater for barbel (60% and 25% for barbel and nase, respectively). Differences in passage efficiency between species may be due to differences in their size. Mean length for barbels attempting to pass was 336 mm (±47 mm) while for nases was 143 mm (±26 mm). Moreover, both the number of attempts to pass and ascend time for nases were higher than for barbels. Entrance efficiency was low (3.5% and 10.8% for barbel and nase, respectively), although 2017 was a very dry year, thus these results are most likely influenced by flow rates. Therefore, the fishway has proved to be functional but is actually poor for efficiency purposes, especially for small fish.

Environmental Aspects of Implementation of Micro Hydro Power Plants – A Short Review

The economic importance of micro hydro power plants is obvious around the world and the development trend will continue well into the future.

Unfortunately the effects on the local lotic systems habitats and biocoenosis are not studied, and in some cases or are known only to a small degree.

A variety of taxa were identified in the study case areas as being significantly affected by the micro hydro power plants: macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish.

Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA, 78 sites in nine watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models. were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

Temperature-dependent variation in alternative migratory tactics and its implications for fitness and population dynamics in a salmonid fish

Temperature-driven life-history modifications by adaptation occur in ectotherms, and therefore, life-history modifications by adaptation need to be taken into consideration when predicting population responses to the climate change. Partial migration is a common form of life-history diversity in which a population contains both migratory and resident behaviours. Salmonid fish exhibit a wide range of life-history diversity and, in particular, partial migration. We evaluated the effect of temperature-driven life-history modifications on population dynamics in partially migratory masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou) by field observations and theoretical models. Field observations revealed that spatial patterns of alternative migratory tactics were associated with temperature gradients. The occurrence of resident males increased, whereas the proportion of migrant males and the proportion of delayed migrants including both sexes decreased with increasing temperature and, thereby, with improved early growth conditions. The expected fitness for each migratory tactic was computed in a life-history model with early growth conditions as a function. Individual fitness was maximized by adopting resident tactics under favourable early growth conditions, early migrant tactics under intermediate early growth conditions and delayed migrant tactics under unfavourable early growth conditions. The results suggest that individuals exhibited a status-dependent conditional strategy, that is, the adoption of alternative migratory tactics is influenced by the status of individuals to make the best of a situation. A simulation model suggests that increased residency by males to increased temperature leads to a substantial decrease in the number of migrants. Moreover, the decrease in the number of delayed (older) migrants with increasing temperature magnified fluctuations in abundance. Our findings indicate the importance of temperature-driven life-history modifications for predicting dynamics of natural populations under climate warming.

Prediction of biological integrity based on environmental similarity--revealing the scale-dependent link between study area and top environmental predictors

Indices of Biological integrity (IBI) are considered valid indicators of the overall health of a water body because the biological community is an endpoint within natural systems. However, prediction of biological integrity using information from multi-parameter environmental observations is a challenging problem due to the hierarchical organization of the natural environment, the existence of nonlinear inter-dependencies among variables as well as natural stochasticity and measurement noise. We present a method for predicting the Fish Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) using multiple environmental observations at the state-scale in Ohio. Instream (chemical and physical quality) and offstream parameters (regional and local upstream land uses, stream fragmentation, and point source density and intensity) are used for this purpose. The IBI predictions are obtained using the environmental site-similarity concept and following a simple to implement leave-one-out cross validation approach. An IBI prediction for a sampling site is calculated by averaging the observed IBI scores of observations clustered in the most similar branch of a dendrogram--a hierarchical clustering tree of environmental observations--built using the rest of the observations. The standardized Euclidean distance is used to assess dissimilarity between observations. The constructed predictive model was able to explain 61% of the IBI variability statewide. Stream fragmentation and regional land use explained 60% of the variability; the remaining 1% was explained by instream habitat quality. Metrics related to local land use, water quality, and point source density and intensity did not improve the predictive model at the state-scale. The impact of local environmental conditions was evaluated by comparing local characteristics between well- and mispredicted sites. Significant differences in local land use patterns and upstream fragmentation density explained some of the model's over-predictions. Local land use conditions explained some of the model's IBI under-predictions at the state-scale since none of the variables within this group were included in the best final predictive model. Under-predicted sites also had higher levels of downstream fragmentation. The proposed variables ranking and predictive modeling methodology is very well suited for the analysis of hierarchical environments, such as natural fresh water systems, with many cross-correlated environmental variables. It is computationally efficient, can be fully automated, does not make any pre-conceived assumptions on the variables interdependency structure (such as linearity), and it is able to rank variables in a database and generate IBI predictions using only non-parametric easy to implement hierarchical clustering.

High level of population genetic structuring in lake-run brown trout, Salmo trutta, of the Inari Basin, northern Finland

Rivers draining into (Lake) Inarijärvi, northern Finland, sustain a number of lake-run brown trout, Salmo trutta, populations but, as with most lake-run S. trutta systems, the level of population genetic structuring among populations is unknown. To address this and to assist fish stock management in the region, the population genetic structure of S. trutta collected from 28 sampling sites in rivers flowing into Inarijärvi was studied using 13 microsatellite loci. Populations were clustered into three separate groups, largely corresponding to geographic regions, with between-region F(ST) values ranging from 0·11 to 0·16. The significant differentiation observed between most populations within each region also implies that individual populations should be recognized as separate management units and actions to improve, and subsequently maintain, conditions for natural spawning should be prioritized. The results of this study further indicate that the trout from each of these regions may have different biological characteristics, such as local-lake feeding behaviour among the western populations and strong isolation among the northern stocks. As a consequence, further research is warranted to better understand the level of ecological uniqueness of lake-run S. trutta populations.

Invasion versus isolation: trade-offs in managing native salmonids with barriers to upstream movement

Conservation biologists often face the trade-off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non-native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non-native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non-native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade-off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion-isolation trade-off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.

Spatially explicit modeling of habitat dynamics and fish population persistence in an intermittent lowland stream

In temperate and arid climate zones many streams and rivers flow intermittently, seasonally contracting to a sequence of isolated pools or waterholes over the dry period, before reconnecting in the wetter parts of the year. This seasonal drying process is central to our understanding of the population dynamics of aquatic organisms such as fish and invertebrates in these systems. However, there is a dearth of empirical data on the temporal dynamics of such populations. We describe a spatially explicit individual-based model (SEIBM) of fish population dynamics in such systems, which we use to explore the long-term population viability of the carp gudgeon Hypseleotris spp. in a lowland stream in southeastern Australia. We explicitly consider the impacts of interannual variability in stream flow, for example, due to drought, on habitat availability and hence population persistence. Our results support observations that these populations are naturally highly variable, with simulated fish population sizes typically varying over four orders of magnitude within a 50-year simulation run. The most sensitive parameters in the model relate to the amount of water (habitat) in the system: annual rainfall, seepage loss from the pools, and the carrying capacity (number of individuals per cubic meter) of the pools as they dry down. It seems likely that temporal source sink dynamics allow the fish populations to persist in these systems, with good years (high rainfall and brief cease-to-flow [CTF] periods) buffering against periods of drought. In dry years during which the stream may contract to very low numbers of pools, each of these persistent pools becomes crucial for the persistence of the population in the system. Climate change projections for this area suggest decreases in rainfall and increased incidence of drought; under these environmental conditions the long-term persistence of these fish populations is uncertain.

Population response to habitat fragmentation in a stream-dwelling brook trout population

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival ( approximately 45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2-6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7-46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can 'rescue' isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation.

Concordant genetic estimators of migration reveal anthropogenically enhanced source-sink population structure in the river sculpin, Cottus gobio

River systems are vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and will often harbor populations deviating markedly from simplified theoretical models. We investigated fine-scale population structure in the sedentary river fish Cottus gobio using microsatellites and compared migration estimates from three FST estimators, a coalescent maximum-likelihood method and Bayesian recent migration analyses. Source-sink structure was evident via asymmetry in migration and genetic diversity with smaller upstream locations emigration biased and larger downstream subpopulations immigration biased. Patterns of isolation by distance suggested that the system was largely, but not entirely, in migration-drift equilibrium, with headwater populations harboring a signal of past colonizations and in some cases also recent population bottlenecks. Up- vs. downstream asymmetry in population structure was partly attributable to the effects of flow direction, but was enhanced by weirs prohibiting compensatory upstream migration. Estimators of migration showed strong correspondence, at least in relative terms, especially if pairwise FST was used as an indirect index of relative gene flow rather than being translated to Nm. Since true parameter values are unknown in natural systems, comparisons among estimators are important, both to determine confidence in estimates of migration and to validate the performance of different methods.