Testing the ‘CENTURY’ ecosystem level model on data sets from eight grassland sites in the former USSR representing a wide climatic/soil gradient

Stand carbon storage and net primary production in China's subtropical secondary forests are predicted to increase by 2060

BACKGROUND

Forest ecosystems play an important role in carbon sequestration, climate change mitigation, and achieving China's target to become carbon (C) neutral by 2060. However, changes in C storage and net primary production (NPP) in natural secondary forests stemming from tree growth and future climate change have not yet been investigated in subtropical areas in China. Here, we used data from 290 inventory plots in four secondary forests [evergreen broad-leaved forest (EBF), deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved mixed forest (DEF), deciduous broad-leaved forest (DBF), and coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest (CDF)] at different restoration stages and run a hybrid model (TRIPLEX 1.6) to predict changes in stand carbon storage and NPP under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).

RESULTS

The runs of the hybrid model calibrated and validated by using the data from the inventory plots suggest significant increase in the carbon storage by 2060 under the current climate conditions, and even higher increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. In contrast to the carbon storage, the simulated EBF and DEF NPP declines slightly over the period from 2014 to 2060.

CONCLUSIONS

The obtained results lead to conclusion that proper management of China's subtropical secondary forests could be considered as one of the steps towards achieving China's target to become carbon neutral by 2060.

Assessing the provision of carbon-related ecosystem services across a range of temperate grassland systems in western Canada

Reliable data on the provision of ecosystem services (ES) is essential to the design and implementation of policies that incorporate ES into grassland conservation and restoration. We developed and applied an innovative approach for regional parameterization, and calibration of the CENTURY ecosystem model. We quantified spatiotemporal variation of soil organic carbon stock (SOC) and aboveground plant biomass production (AGB) and examined their responses to the recent climate change across a diverse range of native grassland systems in Alberta, western Canada. The simultaneous integration of SOC and AGB into calibration and analysis accounted for most of the spatiotemporal variability in the SOC and AGB measurements and resulted in reduced simulation uncertainty across nine grassland regions. These findings suggest the importance of the systematic parameterization and calibration for the reliable assessment of carbon-related ES across a wide geographic area with heterogeneous ecological conditions. Simulation results showed a pronounced variation in the spatial distribution of SOC and AGB and their associated uncertainty across grassland regions. Under baseline grazing intensity regime, an overall negative effect of recent climatic changes on the SOC, and a less consistent effect on the AGB were found. While, an overall positive or slightly negative impact of recent climate change on the SOC and AGB was found under a proposed 10% lower grazing intensity regime. These heterogeneities in the magnitude and direction of climate change effects under different grazing regimes suggest needs for a range of climate change adaptation strategies to maintain carbon-related ES in Alberta's grasslands. The modeling framework developed in this study can be used to improve the spatially explicit assessment of carbon-related ES in other geographically vast grassland areas and examine the effectiveness of alternative management scenarios to ensure the long-term provision of carbon-related ES in grassland systems.

Responses of aboveground biomass and soil organic carbon to projected future climate change in Inner Mongolian grasslands

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on the grassland ecosystems of Inner Mongolia is important for adaptation of natural resource planning, livestock industries and livelihoods. The CENTURY model was validated against observed climate data from 1981 to 2010 for 16 sites. It simulated grass productivity and soil fertility with acceptable agreement, with the coefficient of the root-mean-square error calculated as 41.0% for biomass and 19.5% for soil organic carbon. The model was then used to assess changes to 2100 in aboveground biomass and soil organic carbon under two different climate-change scenarios that were developed for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The first scenario, RCP4.5 is an intermediate scenario for climate change, incorporating policies and technologies that stabilise growth in greenhouse-gas emissions. The second, RCP8.5, assumes continuing, high demand for energy and increasing greenhouse-gas emissions. Aboveground biomass of meadow and desert steppes responded positively to both scenarios, whereas the typical steppe showed a negative response to RCP4.5 but a positive response to RCP 8.5. Soil organic carbon showed a negative response for all steppe types. The simulations indicated that aboveground biomass and soil organic carbon of Inner Mongolian steppes were sensitive to projected emission scenarios. The CENTURY model predicted aboveground biomass to be 8.5% higher in the longer term (2081–2100) than baseline (1986–2005) under RCP4.5, and 24.3% higher under RCP8.5. Soil organic carbon was predicted to undergo small but significant decreases on average across all sites (1.2% for RCP4.5. 2.9% for RCP8.5). Our results could help decision makers to appreciate the consequences of climate change and plan adaptation strategies.

Above- and Belowground Biomass Allocation in Shrub Biomes across the Northeast Tibetan Plateau

Biomass partitioning has been explored across various biomes. However, the strategies of allocation in plants still remain contentious. This study investigated allocation patterns of above- and belowground biomass at the community level, using biomass survey from the Tibetan Plateau. We explored above- and belowground biomass by conducting three consecutive sampling campaigns across shrub biomes on the northeast Tibetan Plateau during 2011-2013. We then documented the above-ground biomass (AGB), below-ground biomass (BGB) and root: shoot ratio (R/S) and the relationships between R/S and environment factors using data from 201 plots surveyed from 67 sites. We further examined relationships between above-ground and below-ground biomass across various shrub types. Our results indicated that the median values of AGB, BGB, and R/S in Tibetan shrub were 1102.55, 874.91 g m-2, and 0.85, respectively. R/S showed significant trend with mean annual precipitation (MAP), while decreased with mean annual temperature (MAT). Reduced major axis analysis indicated that the slope of the log-log relationship between above- and belowground biomass revealed a significant difference from 1.0 over space, supporting the optimal hypothesis. Interestingly, the slopes of the allometric relationship between log AGB and log BGB differed significantly between alpine and desert shrub. Our findings supported the optimal theory of above- and belowground biomass partitioning in Tibetan shrub, while the isometric hypothesis for alpine shrub at the community level.

Relative linkages of canopy-level CO₂ fluxes with the climatic and environmental variables for US deciduous forests

We used a simple, systematic data-analytics approach to determine the relative linkages of different climate and environmental variables with the canopy-level, half-hourly CO2 fluxes of US deciduous forests. Multivariate pattern recognition techniques of principal component and factor analyses were utilized to classify and group climatic, environmental, and ecological variables based on their similarity as drivers, examining their interrelation patterns at different sites. Explanatory partial least squares regression models were developed to estimate the relative linkages of CO2 fluxes with the climatic and environmental variables. Three biophysical process components adequately described the system-data variances. The 'radiation-energy' component had the strongest linkage with CO2 fluxes, whereas the 'aerodynamic' and 'temperature-hydrology' components were low to moderately linked with the carbon fluxes. On average, the 'radiation-energy' component showed 5 and 8 times stronger carbon flux linkages than that of the 'temperature-hydrology' and 'aerodynamic' components, respectively. The similarity of observed patterns among different study sites (representing gradients in climate, canopy heights and soil-formations) indicates that the findings are potentially transferable to other deciduous forests. The similarities also highlight the scope of developing parsimonious data-driven models to predict the potential sequestration of ecosystem carbon under a changing climate and environment. The presented data-analytics provides an objective, empirical foundation to obtain crucial mechanistic insights; complementing process-based model building with a warranted complexity. Model efficiency and accuracy (R(2) = 0.55-0.81; ratio of root-mean-square error to the observed standard deviations, RSR = 0.44-0.67) reiterate the usefulness of multivariate analytics models for gap-filling of instantaneous flux data.

Biomass estimation approach impacts on calculated soil organic carbon maintenance requirements and associated mineralization rate constants

To reduce atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and provide food for a growing world population, sustainable management practices must be adopted. An important consideration in the development of sustainable practices is the maintenance of soil organic carbon (SOC). Critical assumptions, with unknown errors, are used to calculate SOC maintenance requirements. This study investigated the impact of three approaches for estimating belowground nonharvested carbon (NHC) on SOC maintenance requirements, SOC and nonharvested C mineralization rate constants, and the capacity of the soil to sequester carbon. Common protocols were used to develop databases from eight historical carbon studies. The SOC to CO(2) (k(SOC)) and NHC to SOC (k(NHC)) rate constants were calculated using the model NHC(a)/SOC(i) = k(SOC)/k(NHC) + dSOC/dt(1/k(NHC)SOC(i)), where NHC(a) is the amount of applied NHC, SOC(e) is SOC at the equilibrium point, t = time, and SOC(i) is the initial SOC value. Analysis showed that (i) despite the difficulty in measuring belowground biomass, it is needed to calculate the SOC and NHC mineralization rate constants when using nonisotopic approaches; (ii) decreasing NHC by reducing the relative contribution of roots to NHC reduced the calculated SOC maintenance requirements and the amount of corn stover that could be sustainably harvested; iii) changes in the belowground NHC calculation approach do not result in a consistent impact on calculated rate constants; iv) changes in the belowground NHC calculation approach had a minimal impact on the calculated carbon sequestration potential (k(NHC)NHC)/k(SOC); (v) SOC at the beginning of the experiments was negatively correlated with temperature, while k(SOC) was positively correlated with tillage intensity; and (vi) the k(SOC) and k(NHC) rate constants can be used to directly assess the impact of different management scenarios on carbon turnover.

Adding ecosystem function to agent-based land use models

The objective of this paper is to examine issues in the inclusion of simulations of ecosystem functions in agent-based models of land use decision-making. The reasons for incorporating these simulations include local interests in land fertility and global interests in carbon sequestration. Biogeochemical models are needed in order to calculate such fluxes. The Century model is described with particular attention to the land use choices that it can encompass. When Century is applied to a land use problem the combinatorial choices lead to a potentially unmanageable number of simulation runs. Century is also parameter-intensive. Three ways of including Century output in agent-based models, ranging from separately calculated look-up tables to agents running Century within the simulation, are presented. The latter may be most efficient, but it moves the computing costs to where they are most problematic. Concern for computing costs should not be a roadblock.

Geographical and interannual variability in biomass partitioning in grassland ecosystems: a synthesis of field data

Biomass partitioning is an important variable in terrestrial ecosystem carbon modeling. However, geographical and interannual variability in f(BNPP), defined as the fraction of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) to total NPP, and its relationship with climatic variables, have not been explored. Here we addressed these issues by synthesizing 94 site-year field biomass data at 12 grassland sites around the world from a global NPP database and from the literature. Results showed that f(BNPP) varied from 0.40 to 0.86 across 12 sites. In general, savanna and humid savanna ecosystems had smaller f(BNPP) but larger interannual variability in f(BNPP), and cold desert steppes had larger f(BNPP) but smaller interannual variability. While mean f(BNPP) at a site decreased significantly with increasing mean annual temperature and precipitation across sites, no consistent temporal response of f(BNPP) with annual temperature and precipitation was found within sites. Based on these results, both geographical variability in f(BNPP) and the divergent responses of f(BNPP) with climatic variables at geographical and temporal scales should be considered in global C modeling.