Relative prognostic value of rest thallium-201 imaging, radionuclide ventriculography and 24 hour ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring after acute myocardial infarction

[Value of gated-SPECT in defining the post-revascularization prognosis of patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Gated-SPECT simultaneously evaluates perfusion and ventricular function and could provide important prognostic information in ischemic cardiomyopathy. Our aim was to study the value of gated-SPECT performed before revascularization in a cardioischemic population to predict the outcome of revascularization.

METHODS

One hundred and ten patients who had undergone percutaneous (n = 100) or surgical revascularization were included. Patients underwent sestamibi gated-SPECT before revascularization. After revascularization, they were followed-up for at least 12 months (mean 23.7 months, maximum 44 months). We recorded deaths and a combined clinical event of death, non-fatal infarction, and hospital re-admission for cardiac reasons. We analyzed the prognostic value of clinical, angiographic, and gated-SPECT variables.

RESULTS

During follow-up, there were 14 deaths (6.4%/ year) and 36 cases of combined events (16.5%/year). Multivariate analysis showed that depressed gated-SPECT ejection fraction (threshold 0.30) was the only variable independently related to death (OR = 4.8; 95%CI, 1.6-14.6) and combined event (OR = 2.5; 95%CI, 1.2-4.8). Survival analysis showed that patients with ejection fraction < or = 0.30% had a significantly shorter period of time free of death (33 months [28-38] versus 42 months [40-44]; p = 0.002) and combined events (28 months [23-32] versus 36 months [33-39]; p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

Gated-SPECT, due to the information it provides about left ventricular function, predicts the prognosis of patients after coronary revascularization.

Complete bundle branch block as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality: report of 7,073 patients referred for nuclear exercise testing

PURPOSE

Complete left bundle branch block is a well-established independent risk factor for mortality, but the prognostic importance of right bundle branch block is unclear. We determined whether left and right bundle branch block was associated with all-cause mortality risk after adjustment for potential confounders, including clinical, exercise, and nuclear scintigraphic variables.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We studied 7,073 adults who were referred for symptom-limited nuclear exercise testing. Patients with heart failure or pacemakers were excluded. The presence or absence of bundle branch block was determined from resting electrocardiograms. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality during a mean of 6.7 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

One hundred ninety patients (3%) had complete right bundle branch block, and 150 (2%) had complete left bundle branch block. There were 825 deaths (12%). Mortality was greater in patients with complete right bundle branch block (24% [46 of 190]) or left bundle branch block (24% [36 of 150]) than in those without these findings (11% [779 of 6,883 and 789 of 6,923, respectively]; both P <0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounders, right bundle branch block was as strong an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 to 2.1; P = 0.007) as left bundle branch block (HR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0 to 2.0; P = 0.017). Incomplete right bundle branch block was not associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

Complete right and left bundle branch block are independent predictors of all-cause mortality risk even after adjustment for exercise capacity, nuclear perfusion defects, and other risk factors.

Detection and significance of myocardial ischemia in women versus men within six months of acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina. The Multicenter Myocardial Ischemia Research Group

Ischemia detection after an acute coronary event predicts subsequent cardiac events. However, gender-related aspects in the prevalence and prognostic significance of ischemia detection after an acute coronary event have not been reported. Noninvasive tests, which included resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), 24-hour ambulatory ECG, exercise ECG, and thallium-201 stress scintigraphy were performed in 936 stable patients (224 women and 712 men) 1 to 6 months (average 2.7) after an acute coronary event (i.e., myocardial infarction or unstable angina). Primary end points during an average follow-up of 23 months included cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and unstable angina, while restricted end points included the first 2. Ischemia detection was significantly less frequent among women than among men on 24-hour ambulatory ECG, exercise ECG, and thallium-201 stress scintigraphy. Primary end points occurred in 19.2% of women and in 19% of men, and restricted end points occurred in 5.8% of women versus 8%. of men (p = NS). Cox analyses revealed that gender and its interaction with each of the ischemia tests did not contribute to the prediction of the primary or restricted end points. We conclude that in stable patients 1 to 6 months after an acute coronary event, ischemia detection by noninvasive tests was significantly less prevalent in women than in men. However, subsequent cardiac event rates in women were similar to those observed in men, and there was no gender-ischemic detection interaction regarding subsequent events.

Infarct size after acute myocardial infarction measured by quantitative tomographic 99mTc sestamibi imaging predicts subsequent mortality

BACKGROUND

99mTc sestamibi is a recently developed radioisotope that has been used to measure myocardium at risk and infarct size. The relation between these measurements and subsequent patient outcome has not yet been demonstrated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Two hundred seventy-four consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction underwent tomographic 99mTc sestamibi imaging on arrival at the hospital (to measure myocardium at risk before reperfusion therapy) and at hospital discharge (to measure the amount of salvaged myocardium and final infarct size). Defect size on the sestamibi images was quantified using a threshold value of 60% of peak counts from the circumferential count profile curves generated for five representative slices of the left ventricle. Patients were followed after hospital discharge to evaluate the association between final infarct size and subsequent mortality. The median defect size measured was 27% of the left ventricle at presentation to the hospital (range, 0% to 77%) and was 12% of the left ventricle at hospital discharge (range, 0% to 68%). Almost one half of the patients had a final infarct size of < or = 10%. The median amount of myocardium salvaged was 9% (range, -31% to 75%). During a median duration of follow-up of 12 months, there were 10 deaths (7 cardiac and 3 noncardiac) and 1 resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. There was a significant association between infarct size and overall mortality (chi 2 = 8.66, P = .003) and cardiac mortality (chi 2 = 11.89, P < .001). Two-year mortality was 7% for patients whose infarct size was > or = 12% versus 0% for patients whose infarct size was < 12%. There also was a significant association between myocardium at risk and cardiac mortality (chi 2 = 6.87, P = .009). There was no association between myocardium at risk and overall mortality or between amount of myocardium salvaged and either overall mortality or cardiac mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Larger infarct size measured by 99mTc sestamibi imaging after acute myocardial infarction is associated with increased mortality risk during short-term follow-up.

Methodologic sources of inconsistent prognoses for post-acute myocardial infarction

PURPOSE

To investigate basic methodologic problems that could explain inconsistent and contradictory results for predictor variables in studies of prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Studies on postinfarct prognosis published in English between 1979 and 1991 were identified with a MEDLINE literature search. The key words used for the computer search were: "prognosis" and "myocardial infarction" in the title and "mortality" or "survival" or "outcome" in the title or abstract. Reference lists in the reports captured by the search were examined for pertinent articles, and additional articles were sought in the index pages of two prominent journals. To be included in the analysis, a study had to fulfill the following eligibility criteria: a cohort study or randomized, controlled trial; sample size > or = 50 patients; a clear identification of the time when follow-up began, after the acute phase of MI and either before or at hospital discharge; follow-up for a minimum of 6 months or median/mean of 1 year; and multivariable analysis for intervals no longer than 2 years after the MI. Eight methodologic standards addressing sources of major problems were established and applied to each study.

RESULTS

Of 766 reports identified, 111 fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The median number of standards fulfilled was 3, the highest 6. The proportions of studies complying with each of the 8 methodologic standards were: (1) inception cohort, 60%; (2) total death as an unequivocal outcome, 54%; (3) verification of cause-specific deaths (in 62 studies analyzing cardiac death), 37%; (4) analysis of crucial variables describing baseline severity, 13%; (5) indication of quantitative scope of the spectrum of baseline severity, 20%; (6) reproducible classification of candidate predictor variables, 40%; (7) adequate identification of quantitative importance of and boundaries for statistically significant predictor variables, 39%; and (8) evaluation of impact of treatment on predictor variables, 13%.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that studies on postinfarct prognosis have frequently disregarded basic methodologic principles. Suitable adherence to these principles in future research will allow improved interpretation of results and can reduce inconsistent findings, while improving the applicability of the identified predictors.

Prognostic assessment in coronary artery disease: role of radionuclide angiography

Left ventricular function is one of the most important determinants, if not the most important determinant, of outcome in patients with coronary artery disease. The ability of radionuclide angiography to assess resting and exercise ejection fraction accurately and reproducibly has been shown to be a critical determinant of survival in large-scale studies of survivors of myocardial infarction, as well as patients with chronic stable angina. In addition, several centers have demonstrated that the exercise ejection fraction is an extremely valuable (and perhaps the most valuable) noninvasive parameter in predicting survival among patients with coronary artery disease. The prognostic insights gained from the exercise ejection fraction add incremental predictive information to the coronary anatomic information obtained from coronary arteriography, especially in patients with multivessel disease and those with left ventricular dysfunction at rest.

Independent and incremental prognostic value of exercise single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) thallium imaging in coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to examine the independent and incremental prognostic value of exercise single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) thallium imaging in patients with angiographically defined coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND

Previous studies showed the importance of exercise thallium-201 in risk stratification. However, most of these studies used planar imaging techniques.

METHODS

Follow-up data were obtained in 316 medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the independent and incremental prognostic values of clinical, exercise, thallium and cardiac catheterization data.

RESULTS

There were 35 events (cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) at a mean follow-up time of 28 months. Univariate analysis showed that gender (chi-square = 5.1), exercise work load (chi-square = 3.1), extent of coronary artery disease and left ventricular ejection fraction (chi-square = 14.8) and thallium variables (chi-square = 22.7) were prognostically important. The thallium data provided incremental prognostic value to catheterization data (chi-square = 33.7, p < 0.01). The extent of the perfusion abnormality was the single best predictor of prognosis (chi-square = 14). Patients with a large perfusion abnormality had a worse prognosis than that of patients with a mild or no abnormality (Mantel-Cox statistics = 10.6, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In medically treated patients with coronary artery disease, exercise SPECT thallium imaging provides independent and incremental prognostic information even when catheterization data are available. The extent of the perfusion abnormality is the single most important prognostic predictor.

Long-term survival in 618 patients from the Western Washington Streptokinase in Myocardial Infarction trials

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine whether streptokinase treatment improves long-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND

Thrombolytic treatment for acute myocardial infarction reduces early mortality and improves the 1-year survival rate, but the long-term (3 to 8 years) survival benefits of treatment and the relation between survival and baseline clinical characteristics, infarct size and ventricular function have not been established.

METHODS

We assessed survival status at a minimum of 3 and a mean of 4.9 +/- 2.3 years in 618 patients randomized between 1981 and 1986 to receive conventional treatment (n = 293) or thrombolysis with streptokinase (n = 325) in the Western Washington Intracoronary (n = 250) and Intravenous (n = 368) Streptokinase in Myocardial Infarction trials. The relation between long-term survival and thrombolytic treatment, admission baseline clinical characteristics and late radionuclide tomographic thallium-201 infarct size and ejection fraction was assessed in a subset of patients.

RESULTS

Survival at 6 weeks was 94% in patients who received streptokinase versus 88% in the control group (p = 0.01). However, survival at 3 years was 84% in the streptokinase group and 82% in the control group and for the total period of follow-up, there was no significant survival benefit (p = 0.16). Analysis by infarct location showed a higher survival rate at 3 years for patients treated with anterior infarction (76% vs. 67% for the control group), but no overall survival benefit (p = 0.14). Survival at 3 years for patients with an inferior infarction was 89% in the streptokinase group and 91% in the control group (p = 0.62). By stepwise Cox regression analysis, admission clinical variables associated with decreased long-term survival were anterior infarction, advanced age, history of prior infarction and the presence of pulmonary edema or hypotension. Although streptokinase therapy was associated with improved survival, it was not an independent determinant of survival (p = 0.069). Ejection fraction and thallium-201 infarct size measured approximately 8 weeks after enrollment had a strong association with long-term survival. Univariate analysis in a subgroup of 289 patients with complete data selected infarct size, ejection fraction, age and history of prior infarction as predictors of survival. In the multivariate model, only ejection fraction (p < 0.0001), age (p = 0.008) and prior myocardial infarction (p = 0.02) remained strong predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

In these early trials of thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction, streptokinase improved early survival, but there was little long-term survival benefit. This failure to show an improvement in the 3- to 8-year survival rate may also reflect the need to study a larger group of patients or to initiate treatment earlier after symptom onset.

Characterization and prognostic significance of silent myocardial ischemia on predischarge electrocardiographic monitoring in unselected patients with myocardial infarction

Characteristics and prognostic significance of ischemic ST changes at predischarge Holter monitoring were evaluated in 270 consecutive postinfarction patients. The 64 patients with ST changes had a greater incidence of non-Q-wave myocardial infarction (p less than 0.01) and ventricular premature contractions (p less than 0.01); they were more frequently in Moss class greater than 2 (p less than 0.01) and they had a lower wall motion score (p less than 0.05). At 2-year follow-up, patients with ST changes had a higher incidence of cardiac death and reinfarction. At multivariate analysis, Killip class (p less than 0.01) and ST changes (p less than 0.05) were the most predictive variables; when multivariate analysis was repeated including an additional variable--the inability to perform a stress test--Killip class was the most significant variable (p less than 0.01), and the presence of ST changes showed only borderline statistical significance (p less than 0.1). In the subset of patients who did not perform the stress test, ST change was the most important variable (p less than 0.01), followed by Killip class (p less than 0.05). Thus, after myocardial infarction, ST changes during Holter monitoring are associated with a poor prognosis and appear useful for stratifying patients who do not perform exercise stress tests.

Prognostic significance of the Karnofsky Performance Status score in patients with acute myocardial infarction: comparison with the left ventricular ejection fraction and the exercise treadmill test performance. The MILIS Study Group

The prognostic significance of functional status has not been previously studied in the setting of acute myocardial infarction. We assessed the Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) score, a simple functional status scale that is commonly used to categorize physical ability, in 849 patients with acute myocardial infarction who were enrolled in the Multicenter Investigation of the Limitation of Infarct Size (MILIS) study. We then compared the KPS score with other predictors of prognosis in these patients. In patients who presented with acute myocardial infarction, a lower KPS score (less than 8 on a scale of 1 to 10) 3 weeks before the index infarction was associated with a higher incidence of congestive heart failure, in-hospital cardiac arrest, and mortality during hospitalization, as compared with patients with KPS scores greater than or equal to 8 (each p less than 0.001). Cumulative 1-year and 4-year mortality rates were significantly higher in patients with KPS scores less than 8, as compared with patients with KPS scores greater than or equal to 8 (42.5% vs. 12.6% at 1 year and 61.6% vs 25.1% at 4 years, respectively; both p less than 0.001). The left ventricular ejection fraction on admission was significantly lower in patients with KPS scores less than 8, as compared with those with KPS scores greater than or equal to 8 (p less than 0.019). The cumulative mortality rate was equally well predicted by low KPS score and by left ventricular ejection fraction (both p less than 0.0001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Estimation of the risk of death during the first year after acute myocardial infarction from systolic time intervals during the first week

Patients who survived for the first seven days after acute myocardial infarction were followed up for a further 51 weeks. During these 51 weeks there were 123 deaths and 477 eventual survivors. Approximately half of the deaths occurred during the first 3 weeks of follow up. The deaths were predicted with 75% sensitivity and 73% specificity by a discriminant analysis based upon six variables seen during the first 7 days; predictions of death and survival were 55% and 92% accurate respectively. These six variables were, in ascending order of prognostic importance, the occurrence of bundle branch blocks, the administration of a diuretic, the age of the patient, the presence of diabetes mellitus, a previous myocardial infarction, and the ratio of the measured left ventricular pre-ejection and ejection periods. Many other monitored variables, although univariately associated with death, contributed nothing further to the multivariate assessment of mortality risk.

Relation between myocardial thallium-201 kinetics during exercise and quantitative coronary angiography in patients with one vessel coronary artery disease

This study examined the relation between the kinetics of thallium-201 and coronary stenosis in 30 patients with one vessel coronary artery disease; 25 patients had no visible collateral vessels. The myocardial thallium concentration in the postexercise images and percent washout were determined in the distribution of the diseased vessel and a normal vessel, and each was expressed as a ratio. Coronary stenosis was assessed as minimal diameter stenosis, minimal area stenosis and percent diameter stenosis. The correlations between the myocardial concentration ratio or washout ratio and the descriptors of coronary stenosis improved when the patients with collateral vessels were excluded. There were significant correlations between the myocardial thallium concentration ratio and minimal diameter stenosis (r = 0.73, p less than 0.001), minimal area stenosis (r = 0.72, p less than 0.001) and, to a lesser degree, percent diameter stenosis (r = -0.51, p less than 0.01). Similarly, there were significant correlations between washout ratio and minimal diameter stenosis (r = 0.50, p less than 0.01) and minimal area stenosis (r = 0.45, p less than 0.02) but not percent diameter stenosis (r = 0.37, p = 0.06). Thus, variation in thallium kinetics in relation to the severity of coronary stenosis can be demonstrated with conventional imaging in patients with one vessel disease. The myocardial thallium concentration and washout are physiologic expressions of the severity of perfusion deficit and are dependent on collateral flow. The myocardial thallium concentration ratio and washout ratio correlate better with minimal diameter and area stenosis than with percent diameter stenosis.