On the structure of the epidemic spread of AIDS: the influence of an infectious coagent

On build-up of epidemiologic models-Development of a SEI3RSD model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2

The present study investigates essential steps in build-up of models for description of the spread of infectious diseases. Combining these modules, a SEI3RSD model will be developed, which can take into account a possible passive immunisation by vaccination as well as different durations of latent and incubation periods. Besides, infectious persons with and without symptoms can be distinguished. Due to the current world-wide SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (COVID-19 pandemic) models for description of the spread of infectious diseases and their application for forecasts have become into the focus of the scientific community as well as of broad public more than usual. Currently, many papers and studies have appeared and appear dealing with the virus SARS-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 disease caused by it. This occurs under medical, virological, economic, sociological and further aspects as well as under mathematical points of view. Concerning the last-mentioned point, the main focus lies on the application of existing models and their adaptation to data about the course of infection available at the current time. Clearly, the aim is to predict the possible further development, for instance in Germany. It is of particular interest to investigate how will be the influence of political and administrative measures like contact restrictions, closing or rather re-opening of schools, restaurants, hotels etc. on the course of infection. The steps considered here for building up suitable models are well-known for long time. However, understandably they will not be dealt with in an extended way in current application-oriented works. Therefore, it is the aim of this study to present some existing steps of modelling without any pretension of completeness. Thus, on the one hand we give assistance and, on the other hand, we develop a model capable to take already known properties of COVID-19 as well as a later possible passive immunisation by vaccination and a possible loss of immunity of recovered persons into account.

Antigenic complementarity among AIDS-associated infectious agents and molecular mimicry of lymphocyte proteins as inducers of lymphocytotoxic antibodies and circulating immune complexes

BACKGROUND

People at risk for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) have high rates of cofactor infections in addition to HIV, including cytomegalovirus, hepatitis viruses, Mycobacteria, Mycoplasmas, and Staphylococcus aureus. Most people with AIDS also develop lymphocytotoxic antibodies (LCTA) and circulating immune complexes (CIC). While HIV proteins mimic HLA antigens, many cofactor agents mimic CD4 antigens. It has therefore been proposed that cofactor infections may interact with HIV by producing complementary antigens that induce LCTA and CIC, and that the resulting immunological dysfunction is part of AIDS pathogenesis.

OBJECTIVES

To test (1) whether HIV and its cofactor infections elicit complementary (idiotype-anti-idiotype) antibodies, and (2) if any of these antibodies mimic anti-lymphocyte antibodies.

STUDY DESIGN

Two immunological methods are employed to test for antibody complementarity: (1) double antibody diffusion, a modification of Ouchterlony immunodiffusion, in which antibodies are tested for their ability to precipitate each other; (2) double-antibody ELISA, in which an antibody against one infectious agent is adsorbed to an ELISA plate and an antibody against a second agent is used to detect the first.

RESULTS

Data on over a thousand double antibody diffusion (DAD) and about 70 DA-ELISA experiments are reported. These show that only specific pairs of antibodies are complementary: HIV-CMV; HIV-HBV; HIV-tuberculosis; HIV-mycoplasmas; HIV-S. aureus; and CMV-mycoplasmas. In addition, HIV antibodies precipitate CD4 antibodies; CMV antibodies precipitate HLA-DR antibodies; while mycobacteria and mycoplasma antibodies precipitate macrophage antibodies.

CONCLUSIONS

Antibodies elicited by HIV infection can interact with antibodies elicited by cofactor infections to form CIC, and some of these antibodies mimic lymphocyte antibodies so that they may function as LCTA. Since LCTA and CIC are associated with increased lymphocyte death in AIDS, the immune response against cofactors in HIV may play a significant role in AIDS pathogenesis. The fact that both HIV and cofactors elicit antibodies with LCTA characteristics may pose problems for vaccine development.

Five myths about AIDS that have misdirected research and treatment

A number of widely repeated and factually incorrect myths have pervaded the AIDS research literature, misdirecting research and treatment. Five of the most outstanding are: 1) that all risk groups develop AIDS at the same rate following HIV infection; 2) that there are no true seroreversions following HIV infection; 3) that antibody is protective against HIV infection; 4) that the only way to treat AIDS effectively is through retroviral therapies; and 5) that since HIV is so highly correlated with AIDS incidence, it must be the sole necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS. A huge body of research, reviewed in this paper, demonstrates the falsity of these myths. 1) The average number of years between HIV infection and AIDS is greater than 20 years for mild hemophiliacs, 14 years for young severe hemophiliacs, 10 years for old severe hemophiliacs, 10 years for homosexual men, 6 years for transfusion patients of all ages, 2 years for transplant patients, and 6 months for perinatally infected infants. These differences can only be explained in terms of risk-group associated cofactors. 2) Seroreversions are common. Between 10 and 20 percent of HIV-seronegative people in high risk groups have T-cell immunity to HIV, and may have had one or more verified positive HIV antibody tests in the past. 3) Antibody, far from being protective against HIV, appears to be highly diagnostic of loss of immune regulation of HIV, and some evidence of antibody-enhancement of infection exists. 4) Non-retroviral treatments of HIV infection, including safer sex practices, elimination of drug use, high nutrient diets, and limited reexposure to HIV and its cofactors have proven to be effective means of preventing or delaying onset of AIDS. 5) Many immunosuppressive factors, including drug use, multiple concurrent infections, and exposure to alloantigens, are as highly correlated with AIDS risk groups as HIV. These data are more consistent with AIDS being a multifactorial or synergistic disease than a monofactorial one.

AIDS and promiscuity: muddles in the models of HIV prevention

AIDS has been blamed on promiscuity and the promiscuous, and a major goal of many HIV-prevention programs has been to induce people to reduce the number of their sexual partners. Despite the salience of this concept in the AIDS discourse of scientists, policymakers, the media, religious leaders, and the gay community, critical analysis of the role of promiscuity in this epidemic has been lacking. Following a review of promiscuity in various genres of AIDS discourse, this article discusses promiscuity in American society and in HIV-prevention campaigns. The relative risks associated with monogamy, abstinence and promiscuity are examined, and the author concludes that the partner-reduction strategy, instead of contributing to a reduction in HIV transmission has been an impediment to AIDS prevention efforts, exacerbating the problem by undermining the sex-positive approaches to risk reduction that have proven effective. Responsibility for this misguided strategy is attributed to a moralistic approach to AIDS and to the misapplication of epidemiological concepts and inappropriate social science models to the task of promoting healthy forms of sexuality.

AIDS acquired by drug consumption and other noncontagious risk factors

The hypothesis that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a new, sexually transmitted virus that causes AIDS has been entirely unproductive in terms of public health benefits. Moreover, it fails to predict the epidemiology of AIDS, the annual AIDS risk and the very heterogeneous AIDS diseases of infected persons. The correct hypothesis must explain why: (1) AIDS includes 25 previously known diseases and two clinically and epidemiologically very different epidemics, one in America and Europe, the other in Africa; (2) almost all American (90%) and European (86%) AIDS patients are males over the age of 20, while African AIDS affects both sexes equally; (3) the annual AIDS risks of infected babies, intravenous drug users, homosexuals who use aphrodisiacs, hemophiliacs and Africans vary over 100-fold; (4) many AIDS patients have diseases that do not depend on immunodeficiency, such as Kaposi's sarcoma, lymphoma, dementia and wasting; (5) the AIDS diseases of Americans (97%) and Europeans (87%) are predetermined by prior health risks, including long-term consumption of illicit recreational drugs, the antiviral drug AZT and congenital deficiencies like hemophilia, and those of Africans are Africa-specific. Both negative and positive evidence shows that AIDS is not infectious: (1) the virus hypothesis fails all conventional criteria of causation; (2) over 100-fold different AIDS risks in different risk groups show that HIV is not sufficient for AIDS; (3) AIDS is only 'acquired,' if at all, years after HIV is neutralized by antibodies; (4) AIDS is new but HIV is a long-established, perinatally transmitted retrovirus; (5) alternative explanations disprove all assumptions and anecdotal cases cited in support of the virus hypothesis; (6) all AIDS-defining diseases occur in matched risk groups, at the same rate, in the absence of HIV; (7) there is no common, active microbe in all AIDS patients; (8) AIDS manifests in unpredictable and unrelated diseases; and (9) it does not spread randomly between the sexes in America and Europe. Based on numerous data documenting that drugs are necessary for HIV-positives and sufficient for HIV-negatives to develop AIDS diseases, it is proposed that all American/European AIDS diseases, that exceed their normal background, result from recreational and anti-HIV drugs. African AIDS is proposed to result from protein malnutrition, poor sanitation and subsequent parasitic infections. This hypothesis resolves all paradoxes of the virus-AIDS hypothesis. It is epidemiologically and experimentally testable and provides a rational basis for AIDS control.

Linkage and independence of AIDS and Kaposi disease: the interaction of human immunodeficiency virus and some coagents

Through epidemiological considerations we conclude that full-blown AIDS may occur only if the index patient is infected by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and, in addition, by some other infectious coagent. Since the dynamical behavior of the spread of AIDS cases with manifestation of Kaposi's sarcoma differs fundamentally from that of the non-Kaposi cases, we conjecture that two independent coagents (together with HIV) are responsible for the outbreak of full-blown AIDS with or without manifestation of Kaposi's sarcoma, respectively. Our formal epidemiological considerations appear to be supported by recent microbiological findings.