Chikungunya seroprevalence, force of infection, and prevalence of chronic disability after infection in endemic and epidemic settings: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study

Deep mutationally scanned (DMS) CHIKV E3/E2 virus library maps viral amino acid preferences and predicts viral escape mutants of neutralizing CHIKV antibodies

As outbreaks of chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus, continue to present public health challenges, additional research is needed to generate protective and safe vaccines and effective therapeutics. Prior research has established a role for antibodies in mediating protection against CHIKV infection, and the early appearance of CHIKV-specific IgG or IgG neutralizing antibodies protects against progression to chronic CHIKV disease in humans. However, the importance of epitope specificity for these protective antibodies and how skewed responses contribute to development of acute and chronic CHIKV-associated joint disease remains poorly understood. Here, we describe the deep mutational scanning of one of the dominant targets of neutralizing antibodies during CHIKV infection, the E3/E2 (also known as p62) glycoprotein complex, to simultaneously test thousands of p62 mutants against selective pressures of interest in a high throughput manner. Characterization of the virus library revealed achievement of high diversity while also selecting out non-functional virus variants. Furthermore, this study provides evidence that this virus library system can comprehensively map sites critical for the neutralization function of antibodies of both known and unknown p62 domain specificities.

The global health and economic burden of chikungunya from 2011 to 2020: a model-driven analysis on the impact of an emerging vector-borne disease

INTRODUCTION

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne arboviral disease posing an emerging global public health threat. Understanding the global burden of chikungunya is critical for designing effective prevention and control strategies. However, current estimates of the economic and health impact of chikungunya remain limited and are potentially underestimated. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the chikungunya burden worldwide.

METHODS

We analysed the global burden of chikungunya between 2011 and 2020 and calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and direct and indirect costs using a data-driven simulation model. The main outcomes were the number of cases, the total DALY burden, and the direct and indirect costs of acute and chronic chikungunya between 2011 and 2020.

RESULTS

Our study revealed a total of 18.7 million chikungunya cases in 110 countries between 2011 and 2020, causing 1.95 million DALYs. Most of this burden was found in the Latin American and Caribbean region. The total economic burden caused by chikungunya over these 10 years was estimated at $2.8 billion in direct costs and $47.1 billion in indirect costs worldwide. Long-term chronic illness was the source of most costs and DALYs.

CONCLUSION

Chikungunya has a higher disease burden than was previously estimated and costs related to the disease are substantial. Especially in combination with its unpredictable nature, chikungunya could significantly impact local health systems. Insights from this study could inform decision makers on the impact of chikungunya on population health and help them to appropriately allocate resources to protect vulnerable populations from this debilitating disease.

Chikungunya vaccine development, challenges, and pathway toward public health impact

Chikungunya is a neglected tropical disease of growing public health concern with outbreaks in more than 114 countries in Asia, Africa, Americas, Europe, and Oceania since 2004. There are no specific antiviral treatment options for chikungunya virus infection. This article describes the chikungunya vaccine pipeline and assesses the challenges in the path to licensure, access, and uptake of chikungunya vaccines in populations at risk. Ixchiq (VLA1533/Ixchiq - Valneva) was the first licensed chikungunya vaccine by the US Food and Drug Administration in November 2023, European Medicines Agency in May 2024, and Health Canada in June 2024. Five chikungunya vaccine candidates (BBV87 - BBIL/IVI, MV-CHIK - Themis Bioscience, ChAdOx1 Chik - University of Oxford, PXVX0317 / VRC-CHKVLP059-00-VP - Bavarian Nordic, and mRNA-1388 - Moderna) are in development. Evidence on chikungunya disease burden alongside the public health and economic impact of vaccination are critical for decision-making on chikungunya vaccine introduction in endemic and epidemic settings. Further, global and regional stakeholders need to agree on a sustainable financing mechanism for manufacturing at scale to facilitate fair access and equitable vaccine distribution to at-risk populations in different geographic settings. This could partly be facilitated through obtaining consensus on scientific and regulatory principles for initial vaccine introduction and generating evidence on chikungunya burden and disease awareness among populations at risk. Specifically, this article advocates for the formation of a global chikungunya vaccine consortium that includes regulators, policymakers, sponsors, and manufacturers to assist in overcoming the global and local challenges for chikungunya vaccine licensure, policy, financing, demand generation, and access to at-risk populations.

How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination

Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.

From bench to clinic: the development of VLA1553/IXCHIQ, a live-attenuated chikungunya vaccine

BACKGROUND

Over the past 20 years, over 5 million cases of chikungunya, a mosquito-transmitted viral disease, have been reported in over 110 countries. Until recently, preventative strategies for chikungunya were largely ineffective, relying on vector control and individual avoidance of mosquito bites.

METHODS

This review outlines the preclinical and clinical efficacy and safety data that led to the approval of VLA1553 (IXCHIQ®), a live-attenuated vaccine against chikungunya disease. It also describes the innovative development pathway of VLA1553, based on an immunological surrogate of protection, and discusses ongoing and future post-licensure studies.

RESULTS

In mice and non-human primate models, VLA1553 elicited high titres of neutralizing antibodies, conferred protection against wild-type chikungunya virus challenge and raised no safety concerns. A Phase 1 clinical trial of VLA1553 demonstrated 100% seroconversion among 120 healthy participants, with sustained neutralizing antibody titres after 12 months. These results and determination of a surrogate marker of protection led to advancement of VLA1553 directly into Phase 3 clinical development, as agreed with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency. The pivotal Phase 3 trial met its primary immunogenicity endpoint, achieving seroprotective levels based on immuno-bridging in baseline seronegative participants 28 days post-vaccination. These findings enabled submission of a Biologics Licence Application to the FDA for accelerated approval of VLA1553 in the US for adults aged ≥18 years. Ongoing and planned studies will confirm the clinical efficacy/effectiveness and safety of VLA1553 in adults and younger individuals, and will generate data in chikungunya endemic countries that have the highest unmet need.

CONCLUSION

VLA1553 is the first vaccine approved for the prevention of chikungunya disease in adults, following accelerated development based on a serological surrogate marker of protection. VLA1553 adds to strategies to reduce the spread and burden of chikungunya in endemic populations and travellers.

Understanding the Transmission Dynamics of the Chikungunya Virus in Africa

The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) poses a significant global public health concern, especially in Africa. Since its first isolation in Tanzania in 1953, CHIKV has caused recurrent outbreaks, challenging healthcare systems in low-resource settings. Recent outbreaks in Africa highlight the dynamic nature of CHIKV transmission and the challenges of underreporting and underdiagnosis. Here, we review the literature and analyse publicly available cases, outbreaks, and genomic data, providing insights into the epidemiology, genetic diversity, and transmission dynamics of CHIKV in Africa. Our analyses reveal the circulation of geographically distinct CHIKV genotypes, with certain regions experiencing a disproportionate burden of disease. Phylogenetic analysis of sporadic outbreaks in West Africa suggests repeated emergence of the virus through enzootic spillover, which is markedly different from inferred transmission dynamics in East Africa, where the virus is often introduced from Asian outbreaks, including the recent reintroduction of the Indian Ocean lineage from the Indian subcontinent to East Africa. Furthermore, there is limited evidence of viral movement between these two regions. Understanding the history and transmission dynamics of outbreaks is crucial for effective public health planning. Despite advances in surveillance and research, diagnostic and surveillance challenges persist. This review and secondary analysis highlight the importance of ongoing surveillance, research, and collaboration to mitigate the burden of CHIKV in Africa and improve public health outcomes.