Individualized nomogram improves diagnostic accuracy of stage I-II gallbladder cancer in chronic cholecystitis patients with gallbladder wall thickening

Preoperative prediction model for non-neoplastic and benign neoplastic polyps of the gallbladder

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder adenoma represents a precancerous lesion of gallbladder cancer. However, distinguishing it from cholesteryl polyps of the gallbladder before surgery is challenging. Thus, we aimed to comprehensively explore various risk factors contributing to the formation of gallbladder adenoma to facilitate an informed diagnosis and treatment by clinicians.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who had undergone cholecystectomy at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between January 2015 and December 2022. Following postoperative pathological examination, patients were categorized into cholesterol polyp and adenoma groups. We analyzed their baseline characteristics, ultrasound imaging variables, and biochemical data using logistic, lasso, and stepwise regression. Subsequently, we constructed a preoperative prediction model based on the independent risk factors.

RESULTS

Regression analysis of 520 gallbladder polyps and 288 gallbladder adenomas in the model group revealed that age, gallbladder wall thickness, polyp size, echogenicity, pedunculation, and adenosine deaminase (ADA) levels were independent predictors of gallbladder adenoma, all with P < 0.05. Using these indicators, we established a regression equation: Logistic (P) = -5.615 + 0.018 ∗ age - 4.64 ∗ gallbladder wall thickness + 1.811 ∗ polyp size + 2.855 ∗ polyp echo + 0.97∗ pedunculation + 0.092 ∗ ADA. The resulting area under the curve (AUC) value was 0.894 (95 % CI: 0.872-0.917, P < 0.01), with a sensitivity of 89.20 %, specificity of 79.40 %, and overall accuracy of 84.41 % for adenoma detection.

CONCLUSION

Age, polyp size, gallbladder wall thickness, polyp echogenicity, pedunculation, and ADA levels emerge as independent risk factors for gallbladder adenoma.

PARP1 rs1136410 (A/G) polymorphism is associated with early age of onset of gallbladder cancer

OBJECTIVES

Evaluation of the association of PARP1 rs1136410 (A/G) polymorphism with gallbladder cancer susceptibility and its prognosis in the Indian population of eastern Uttar Pradesh and western Bihar.

METHODS

PARP1 rs1136410 was genotyped by PCR-RFLP and its association with the prognosis of gallbladder cancer patients were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier plot and log-rank tests.

RESULTS

Our results demonstrate that minor allele G is more frequent in gallbladder cancer patients than controls. The frequencies of minor allele G and GG genotype are significantly associated with increased risk of gallbladder cancer. Our data suggest that the minor allele G and homozygous genotype GG are significant predisposing factors for the early age of onset of gallbladder cancer. Similarly, women patients having AG and GG genotypes demonstrate an increased risk of gallbladder cancer. The risk group genotypes (AG + GG) are significantly more frequent in patients with thick gallbladder wall, with jaundice and with the presence of lymph node than in patients with normal gallbladder wall thickness, without jaundice and absence of lymph node involvement. Survival analysis data suggest that patients with risk group genotype (AG + GG) presenting jaundice have shorter overall survival.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that the minor allele G of PARP1 rs1136410 (A/G) is a predisposing factor for gallbladder carcinogenesis and is significantly associated with early onset of the disease. Interestingly, the minor allele G is significantly more frequent in the patients with jaundice, lymph node metastasis and gallbladder wall thickness.

Current update on gallbladder carcinoma

Gallbladder (GB) carcinoma is a relatively rare malignancy and is associated with poor prognosis. Numerous risk factors have been associated with the development of GB carcinoma. GB carcinomas may present as mass lesions replacing the GB, focal or diffuse thickening of the GB wall, and intraluminal mass in the GB. Various benign conditions can mimic GB carcinoma. This article reviews the epidemiology, pathology, clinical findings, imaging features, and management of GB carcinomas.

Malignancy in elective cholecystectomy due to gallbladder polyps or thickened gallbladder wall: a single-centre experience

INTRODUCTION

Gallbladder cancer is a rare but aggressive malignancy. Surgical resection is recommended for gallbladder polyps ≥10 mm. For gallbladder wall thickening, resection is recommended if malignancy cannot be excluded. The incidence of gallbladder malignancy after cholecystectomy with indications of polyps or wall thickening in the Swedish population is not known.

MATERIAL/METHODS

A retrospective study was performed at Linköping University Hospital and included patients who underwent cholecystectomy 2010 - 2018. All cholecystectomies performed due to gallbladder polyps or gallbladder wall thickening without other preoperative malignant signs were identified. Preoperative radiological examinations were re-analysed by a single radiologist. Medical records and histopathology reports were analysed.

RESULTS

In all, 102 patients were included, of whom 65 were diagnosed with gallbladder polyps and 37 with gallbladder wall thickening. In each group, one patient (1.5% and 2.7% in each group) had gallbladder malignancy ≥ pT1b.Two (3.1%) and three (8.1%) patients with gallbladder malignancy < T1b were identified in each group.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

This study indicates that the incidence of malignancy is low without other malignant signs beyond gallbladder polyps and/or gallbladder wall thickening. We propose that these patients should be discussed at a multidisciplinary tumour board. If the polyp is 10-15 mm or if the gallbladder wall is thickened but no other malignant signs are observed, cholecystectomy can be safely performed by an experienced general surgeon at a general surgery unit. If the histopathology indicates ≥ pT1b, the patient should be referred immediately to a hepatobiliary centre for liver and lymph node resection.

γ-glutamyl transferase-to-platelet ratio based nomogram predicting overall survival of gallbladder carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) carries a poor prognosis and requires a prediction method. Gamma-glutamyl transferase–to–platelet ratio (GPR) is a recently reported cancer prognostic factor. Although the mechanism for the relationship between GPR and poor cancer prognosis remains unclear, studies have demonstrated the clinical effect of both gamma-glutamyl transferase and platelet count on GBC and related gallbladder diseases.

AIM

To assess the prognostic value of GPR and to design a prognostic nomogram for GBC.

METHODS

The analysis involved 130 GBC patients who underwent surgery at Peking Union Medical College Hospital from December 2003 to April 2017. The patients were stratified into a high- or low-GPR group. The predictive ability of GPR was evaluated by Kaplan–Meier analysis and a Cox regression model. We developed a nomogram based on GPR, which we verified using calibration curves. The nomogram and other prognosis prediction models were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and the concordance index.

RESULTS

Patients in the high-GPR group had a higher risk of jaundice, were older, and had higher carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels and worse postoperative outcomes. Univariate analysis revealed that GPR, age, body mass index, tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) stage, jaundice, cancer cell differentiation degree, and carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels were related to overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis confirmed that GPR, body mass index, age, and TNM stage were independent predictors of poor OS. Calibration curves were highly consistent with actual observations. Comparisons of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and the concordance index showed advantages for the nomogram over TNM staging.

CONCLUSION

GPR is an independent predictor of GBC prognosis, and nomogram-integrated GPR is a promising predictive model for OS in GBC.

Favorable gallbladder cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios of countries with good ranking of world's health system and high expenditures on health

Background

The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) is a marker that reflects the clinical outcome of cancer treatment. MIR as a prognostic marker is more accessible when compared with long-term follow-up survival surveys. Theoretically, countries with good health care systems would have favorable outcomes for cancer; however, no report has yet demonstrated an association between gallbladder cancer MIR and the World’s Health System ranking.

Methods

We used linear regression to analyze the correlation of MIRs with the World Health Organization (WHO) rankings and total expenditures on health/gross domestic product (e/GDP) in 57 countries selected according to the data quality.

Results

The results showed high crude rates of incidence/mortality but low MIR in more developed regions. Among continents, Europe had the highest crude rates of incidence/mortality, whereas the highest age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence/mortality were in Asia. The MIR was lowest in North America and highest in Africa (0.40 and 1.00, respectively). Furthermore, favorable MIRs were correlated with good WHO rankings and high e/GDP (p = 0.01 and p = 0.030, respectively).

Conclusions

The MIR variation for gallbladder cancer is therefore associated with the ranking of the health system and the expenditure on health.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7160-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Scoring System to Predict pt2 in Gallbladder Cancer Based on Carcinoembryonic Antigen and Tumor Diameter

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

T2 gallbladder cancer requires lymph node dissection for curative resection, whereas simple cholecystectomy is adequate to treat T1 gallbladder cancer. Hence, this study aimed to develop an accurate scoring system to preoperatively predict pT2 in gallbladder cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We retrospectively assessed data from 57 patients with suspected gallbladder cancer who underwent curative resection between September 2003 and May 2017. Six with apparent invasion of adjacent organs on preoperative images were excluded. We evaluated preoperative computed tomography, magnetic resonance and endoscopic ultrasonographic images, blood biochemistry, and the maximum standard uptake value in fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography images. We analyzed whether correlations between preoperative findings and the depth of tumor invasion could predict pT2.

RESULTS

The pathological diagnosis was gallbladder cancer in 30 (58.8%) patients, of whom 21 (69.9%) had pT2 or worse. Multivariate analyses selected carcinoembryonic antigen and tumor diameter as independent predictors of pT2 or worse (odds ratios = 1.741 and 1.098, respectively; 95% confidence intervals = 1.004-3.020 and 1.008-1.197, respectively). A regression formula was created using carcinoembryonic antigen and tumor diameter to calculate pT2 predictive scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the pT2 predictive score was 0.873.

CONCLUSION

We created a scoring system to predict pT2 in gallbladder cancer using carcinoembryonic antigen and tumor diameter. The present findings suggested that carcinoembryonic antigen is important for the preoperative evaluation of gallbladder cancer.

Nomogram to predict overall survival after gallbladder cancer resection in China

AIM

To integrate clinically significant variables related to prognosis after curative resection for gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) into a predictive nomogram.

METHODS

One hundred and forty-two GBC patients who underwent curative intent surgical resection at Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) were included. This retrospective case study was conducted at PUMCH of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College (CAMS & PUMC) in China from January 1, 2003 to January 1, 2018. The continuous variable carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) was converted into a categorical variable (cCA19-9) based on the normal reference range. Stages 0 to IIIA were merged into one category, while the remaining stages were grouped into another category. Pathological grade X (GX) was treated as a missing value. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to select variables to construct a nomogram. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were performed via the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. The performance of the nomogram was estimated using the calibration curve. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to evaluate the predictive accuracy and net benefit of the nomogram, respectively.

RESULTS

Of these 142 GBC patients, 55 (38.7%) were male, and the median and mean age were 64 and 63.9 years, respectively. Forty-eight (33.8%) patients in this cohort were censored in the survival analysis. The median survival time was 20 months. A series of methods, including the likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criterion (AIC) as well as stepwise, forward, and backward analyses, were used to select the model, and all yielded identical results. Jaundice [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.60-5.27], cCA19-9 (HR = 3.2; 95%CI: 1.91-5.39), stage (HR = 1.89; 95%CI: 1.16-3.09), and resection (R) (HR = 2.82; 95%CI: 1.54-5.16) were selected as significant predictors and combined into a survival time predictive nomogram (C-index = 0.803; 95%CI: 0.766-0.839). High prediction accuracy (adjusted C-index = 0.797) was further verified via bootstrap validation. The calibration plot demonstrated good performance of the nomogram. ROC curve analysis revealed a high sensitivity and specificity. A high net benefit was proven by DCA.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram has been constructed to predict the overall survival of GBC patients who underwent radical surgery from a clinical database of GBC at PUMCH.

A predictive model for survival of gallbladder adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is a life-threatening disease with a poor prognosis worldwide. Although several risk factors for survival have been identified, an ideal model for predicting prognosis has still not been developed due to the low incidence of GBC. This study aims to solve this dilemma by attempting to develop an efficient survival prediction model for GBC.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study. From January 2009 to June 2016, 164 patients with a confirmed histological diagnosis of gallbladder adenocarcinoma were enrolled in this study. The cohort was randomly divided into two cohorts, the development cohort (n = 110) and validation cohort (n = 54). On the basis of the risk factors identified in the development cohort, a nomogram-based predictive model (P-risk Plus), composed of carbohydrate antigen 199 and pathological characteristics, was established for prognosis.

RESULTS

In this model, the calibration curves for the 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival probabilities were well-matched with the actual survival rates. In addition, the highest C-index and best decision curve analysis were able to be obviously determined. Meanwhile, the P-risk Plus model result yielded a better fit for survival between the development and validation groups.

CONCLUSION

Compared with conventional tumor stages, our nomogram-based P-risk Plus model for gallbladder adenocarcinoma has a better predictive capacity and thereby has a better potential to facilitate decision-making clinically.