1
|
Wang Y, Peng J, Liu K, Sun P, Ma Y, Zeng J, Jiang Y, Tan B, Cao J, Hu W. Preoperative prediction model for non-neoplastic and benign neoplastic polyps of the gallbladder. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SURGICAL ONCOLOGY 2024; 50:107930. [PMID: 38159390 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejso.2023.107930] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gallbladder adenoma represents a precancerous lesion of gallbladder cancer. However, distinguishing it from cholesteryl polyps of the gallbladder before surgery is challenging. Thus, we aimed to comprehensively explore various risk factors contributing to the formation of gallbladder adenoma to facilitate an informed diagnosis and treatment by clinicians. METHODS We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who had undergone cholecystectomy at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between January 2015 and December 2022. Following postoperative pathological examination, patients were categorized into cholesterol polyp and adenoma groups. We analyzed their baseline characteristics, ultrasound imaging variables, and biochemical data using logistic, lasso, and stepwise regression. Subsequently, we constructed a preoperative prediction model based on the independent risk factors. RESULTS Regression analysis of 520 gallbladder polyps and 288 gallbladder adenomas in the model group revealed that age, gallbladder wall thickness, polyp size, echogenicity, pedunculation, and adenosine deaminase (ADA) levels were independent predictors of gallbladder adenoma, all with P < 0.05. Using these indicators, we established a regression equation: Logistic (P) = -5.615 + 0.018 ∗ age - 4.64 ∗ gallbladder wall thickness + 1.811 ∗ polyp size + 2.855 ∗ polyp echo + 0.97∗ pedunculation + 0.092 ∗ ADA. The resulting area under the curve (AUC) value was 0.894 (95 % CI: 0.872-0.917, P < 0.01), with a sensitivity of 89.20 %, specificity of 79.40 %, and overall accuracy of 84.41 % for adenoma detection. CONCLUSION Age, polyp size, gallbladder wall thickness, polyp echogenicity, pedunculation, and ADA levels emerge as independent risk factors for gallbladder adenoma.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yubing Wang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Jiechao Peng
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Kui Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Peng Sun
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Yonghui Ma
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Jiange Zeng
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Yumin Jiang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Bin Tan
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Jingyu Cao
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Weiyu Hu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
PARP1 rs1136410 (A/G) polymorphism is associated with early age of onset of gallbladder cancer. Eur J Cancer Prev 2021; 31:311-317. [PMID: 34406176 DOI: 10.1097/cej.0000000000000708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Evaluation of the association of PARP1 rs1136410 (A/G) polymorphism with gallbladder cancer susceptibility and its prognosis in the Indian population of eastern Uttar Pradesh and western Bihar. METHODS PARP1 rs1136410 was genotyped by PCR-RFLP and its association with the prognosis of gallbladder cancer patients were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier plot and log-rank tests. RESULTS Our results demonstrate that minor allele G is more frequent in gallbladder cancer patients than controls. The frequencies of minor allele G and GG genotype are significantly associated with increased risk of gallbladder cancer. Our data suggest that the minor allele G and homozygous genotype GG are significant predisposing factors for the early age of onset of gallbladder cancer. Similarly, women patients having AG and GG genotypes demonstrate an increased risk of gallbladder cancer. The risk group genotypes (AG + GG) are significantly more frequent in patients with thick gallbladder wall, with jaundice and with the presence of lymph node than in patients with normal gallbladder wall thickness, without jaundice and absence of lymph node involvement. Survival analysis data suggest that patients with risk group genotype (AG + GG) presenting jaundice have shorter overall survival. CONCLUSION Our study suggests that the minor allele G of PARP1 rs1136410 (A/G) is a predisposing factor for gallbladder carcinogenesis and is significantly associated with early onset of the disease. Interestingly, the minor allele G is significantly more frequent in the patients with jaundice, lymph node metastasis and gallbladder wall thickness.
Collapse
|
3
|
Current update on gallbladder carcinoma. Abdom Radiol (NY) 2021; 46:2474-2489. [PMID: 33386907 DOI: 10.1007/s00261-020-02871-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2020] [Revised: 11/12/2020] [Accepted: 11/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Gallbladder (GB) carcinoma is a relatively rare malignancy and is associated with poor prognosis. Numerous risk factors have been associated with the development of GB carcinoma. GB carcinomas may present as mass lesions replacing the GB, focal or diffuse thickening of the GB wall, and intraluminal mass in the GB. Various benign conditions can mimic GB carcinoma. This article reviews the epidemiology, pathology, clinical findings, imaging features, and management of GB carcinomas.
Collapse
|
4
|
Björk D, Bartholomä W, Hasselgren K, Edholm D, Björnsson B, Lundgren L. Malignancy in elective cholecystectomy due to gallbladder polyps or thickened gallbladder wall: a single-centre experience. Scand J Gastroenterol 2021; 56:458-462. [PMID: 33590795 DOI: 10.1080/00365521.2021.1884895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Gallbladder cancer is a rare but aggressive malignancy. Surgical resection is recommended for gallbladder polyps ≥10 mm. For gallbladder wall thickening, resection is recommended if malignancy cannot be excluded. The incidence of gallbladder malignancy after cholecystectomy with indications of polyps or wall thickening in the Swedish population is not known. MATERIAL/METHODS A retrospective study was performed at Linköping University Hospital and included patients who underwent cholecystectomy 2010 - 2018. All cholecystectomies performed due to gallbladder polyps or gallbladder wall thickening without other preoperative malignant signs were identified. Preoperative radiological examinations were re-analysed by a single radiologist. Medical records and histopathology reports were analysed. RESULTS In all, 102 patients were included, of whom 65 were diagnosed with gallbladder polyps and 37 with gallbladder wall thickening. In each group, one patient (1.5% and 2.7% in each group) had gallbladder malignancy ≥ pT1b.Two (3.1%) and three (8.1%) patients with gallbladder malignancy < T1b were identified in each group. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION This study indicates that the incidence of malignancy is low without other malignant signs beyond gallbladder polyps and/or gallbladder wall thickening. We propose that these patients should be discussed at a multidisciplinary tumour board. If the polyp is 10-15 mm or if the gallbladder wall is thickened but no other malignant signs are observed, cholecystectomy can be safely performed by an experienced general surgeon at a general surgery unit. If the histopathology indicates ≥ pT1b, the patient should be referred immediately to a hepatobiliary centre for liver and lymph node resection.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Dennis Björk
- Department of Surgery, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Wolf Bartholomä
- Department of Radiology in Linköping, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
| | | | - David Edholm
- Department of Surgery, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
| | | | - Linda Lundgren
- Department of Surgery, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Sun LJ, Guan A, Xu WY, Liu MX, Yin HH, Jin B, Xu G, Xie FH, Xu HF, Du SD, Xu YY, Zhao HT, Lu X, Sang XT, Yang HY, Mao YL. γ-glutamyl transferase-to-platelet ratio based nomogram predicting overall survival of gallbladder carcinoma. World J Gastrointest Oncol 2020; 12:1014-1030. [PMID: 33005295 PMCID: PMC7510004 DOI: 10.4251/wjgo.v12.i9.1014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Revised: 05/30/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) carries a poor prognosis and requires a prediction method. Gamma-glutamyl transferase–to–platelet ratio (GPR) is a recently reported cancer prognostic factor. Although the mechanism for the relationship between GPR and poor cancer prognosis remains unclear, studies have demonstrated the clinical effect of both gamma-glutamyl transferase and platelet count on GBC and related gallbladder diseases.
AIM To assess the prognostic value of GPR and to design a prognostic nomogram for GBC.
METHODS The analysis involved 130 GBC patients who underwent surgery at Peking Union Medical College Hospital from December 2003 to April 2017. The patients were stratified into a high- or low-GPR group. The predictive ability of GPR was evaluated by Kaplan–Meier analysis and a Cox regression model. We developed a nomogram based on GPR, which we verified using calibration curves. The nomogram and other prognosis prediction models were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and the concordance index.
RESULTS Patients in the high-GPR group had a higher risk of jaundice, were older, and had higher carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels and worse postoperative outcomes. Univariate analysis revealed that GPR, age, body mass index, tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) stage, jaundice, cancer cell differentiation degree, and carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels were related to overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis confirmed that GPR, body mass index, age, and TNM stage were independent predictors of poor OS. Calibration curves were highly consistent with actual observations. Comparisons of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and the concordance index showed advantages for the nomogram over TNM staging.
CONCLUSION GPR is an independent predictor of GBC prognosis, and nomogram-integrated GPR is a promising predictive model for OS in GBC.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Le-Jia Sun
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Ai Guan
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Wei-Yu Xu
- Department of General Surgery, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Mei-Xi Liu
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Huan-Huan Yin
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Bao Jin
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Gang Xu
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Fei-Hu Xie
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Hai-Feng Xu
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Shun-Da Du
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Yi-Yao Xu
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Hai-Tao Zhao
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Xin Lu
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Xin-Ting Sang
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Hua-Yu Yang
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Yi-Lei Mao
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Wang CC, Tsai MC, Wang SC, Peng CM, Lee HL, Chen HY, Yang TW, Lin CC, Sung WW. Favorable gallbladder cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios of countries with good ranking of world's health system and high expenditures on health. BMC Public Health 2019; 19:1025. [PMID: 31366338 PMCID: PMC6670146 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7160-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2018] [Accepted: 06/12/2019] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) is a marker that reflects the clinical outcome of cancer treatment. MIR as a prognostic marker is more accessible when compared with long-term follow-up survival surveys. Theoretically, countries with good health care systems would have favorable outcomes for cancer; however, no report has yet demonstrated an association between gallbladder cancer MIR and the World’s Health System ranking. Methods We used linear regression to analyze the correlation of MIRs with the World Health Organization (WHO) rankings and total expenditures on health/gross domestic product (e/GDP) in 57 countries selected according to the data quality. Results The results showed high crude rates of incidence/mortality but low MIR in more developed regions. Among continents, Europe had the highest crude rates of incidence/mortality, whereas the highest age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence/mortality were in Asia. The MIR was lowest in North America and highest in Africa (0.40 and 1.00, respectively). Furthermore, favorable MIRs were correlated with good WHO rankings and high e/GDP (p = 0.01 and p = 0.030, respectively). Conclusions The MIR variation for gallbladder cancer is therefore associated with the ranking of the health system and the expenditure on health. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7160-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chi-Chih Wang
- Institute of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Chang Tsai
- Institute of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Shao-Chuan Wang
- Institute of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan.,Department of Urology, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Ming Peng
- Institute of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan.,Department of Surgery, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Hsiang-Lin Lee
- Institute of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.,School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan.,Department of Surgery, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Hsuan-Yi Chen
- School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Tzu-Wei Yang
- School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.,Institute and Department of Biological Science and Technology, National Chiao Tung University, 30010, Hsinchu, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Che Lin
- Institute of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan. .,School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan. .,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.
| | - Wen-Wei Sung
- Institute of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan. .,School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung, 40201, Taiwan. .,Department of Urology, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, 40201, Taichung, Taiwan.
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Sakamoto K, Takai A, Ueno Y, Inoue H, Ogawa K, Takada Y. Scoring System to Predict pt2 in Gallbladder Cancer Based on Carcinoembryonic Antigen and Tumor Diameter. Scand J Surg 2019; 109:301-308. [PMID: 31354079 DOI: 10.1177/1457496919866016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS T2 gallbladder cancer requires lymph node dissection for curative resection, whereas simple cholecystectomy is adequate to treat T1 gallbladder cancer. Hence, this study aimed to develop an accurate scoring system to preoperatively predict pT2 in gallbladder cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS We retrospectively assessed data from 57 patients with suspected gallbladder cancer who underwent curative resection between September 2003 and May 2017. Six with apparent invasion of adjacent organs on preoperative images were excluded. We evaluated preoperative computed tomography, magnetic resonance and endoscopic ultrasonographic images, blood biochemistry, and the maximum standard uptake value in fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography images. We analyzed whether correlations between preoperative findings and the depth of tumor invasion could predict pT2. RESULTS The pathological diagnosis was gallbladder cancer in 30 (58.8%) patients, of whom 21 (69.9%) had pT2 or worse. Multivariate analyses selected carcinoembryonic antigen and tumor diameter as independent predictors of pT2 or worse (odds ratios = 1.741 and 1.098, respectively; 95% confidence intervals = 1.004-3.020 and 1.008-1.197, respectively). A regression formula was created using carcinoembryonic antigen and tumor diameter to calculate pT2 predictive scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the pT2 predictive score was 0.873. CONCLUSION We created a scoring system to predict pT2 in gallbladder cancer using carcinoembryonic antigen and tumor diameter. The present findings suggested that carcinoembryonic antigen is important for the preoperative evaluation of gallbladder cancer.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- K Sakamoto
- Department of Surgery, Ehime University Hospital, Toon, Japan
| | - A Takai
- Department of Surgery, Ehime University Hospital, Toon, Japan
| | - Y Ueno
- Department of Surgery, Ehime University Hospital, Toon, Japan
| | - H Inoue
- Department of Surgery, Ehime University Hospital, Toon, Japan
| | - K Ogawa
- Department of Surgery, Ehime University Hospital, Toon, Japan
| | - Y Takada
- Department of Surgery, Ehime University Hospital, Toon, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Bai Y, Liu ZS, Xiong JP, Xu WY, Lin JZ, Long JY, Miao F, Huang HC, Wan XS, Zhao HT. Nomogram to predict overall survival after gallbladder cancer resection in China. World J Gastroenterol 2018; 24:5167-5178. [PMID: 30568393 PMCID: PMC6288645 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v24.i45.5167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2018] [Revised: 10/23/2018] [Accepted: 11/09/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM To integrate clinically significant variables related to prognosis after curative resection for gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) into a predictive nomogram.
METHODS One hundred and forty-two GBC patients who underwent curative intent surgical resection at Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) were included. This retrospective case study was conducted at PUMCH of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College (CAMS & PUMC) in China from January 1, 2003 to January 1, 2018. The continuous variable carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) was converted into a categorical variable (cCA19-9) based on the normal reference range. Stages 0 to IIIA were merged into one category, while the remaining stages were grouped into another category. Pathological grade X (GX) was treated as a missing value. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to select variables to construct a nomogram. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were performed via the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. The performance of the nomogram was estimated using the calibration curve. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to evaluate the predictive accuracy and net benefit of the nomogram, respectively.
RESULTS Of these 142 GBC patients, 55 (38.7%) were male, and the median and mean age were 64 and 63.9 years, respectively. Forty-eight (33.8%) patients in this cohort were censored in the survival analysis. The median survival time was 20 months. A series of methods, including the likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criterion (AIC) as well as stepwise, forward, and backward analyses, were used to select the model, and all yielded identical results. Jaundice [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.60-5.27], cCA19-9 (HR = 3.2; 95%CI: 1.91-5.39), stage (HR = 1.89; 95%CI: 1.16-3.09), and resection (R) (HR = 2.82; 95%CI: 1.54-5.16) were selected as significant predictors and combined into a survival time predictive nomogram (C-index = 0.803; 95%CI: 0.766-0.839). High prediction accuracy (adjusted C-index = 0.797) was further verified via bootstrap validation. The calibration plot demonstrated good performance of the nomogram. ROC curve analysis revealed a high sensitivity and specificity. A high net benefit was proven by DCA.
CONCLUSION A nomogram has been constructed to predict the overall survival of GBC patients who underwent radical surgery from a clinical database of GBC at PUMCH.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yi Bai
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Zhi-Song Liu
- Department of Statistics, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics Pearl River College, Tianjin 301811, China
| | - Jian-Ping Xiong
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Wei-Yu Xu
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Jian-Zhen Lin
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Jun-Yu Long
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Fei Miao
- Department of Statistics, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics Pearl River College, Tianjin 301811, China
| | - Han-Chun Huang
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Xue-Shuai Wan
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Hai-Tao Zhao
- Department of Liver Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Yifan T, Zheyong L, Miaoqin C, Liang S, Xiujun C. A predictive model for survival of gallbladder adenocarcinoma. Surg Oncol 2018; 27:365-372. [PMID: 30217289 DOI: 10.1016/j.suronc.2018.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2017] [Revised: 02/23/2018] [Accepted: 05/02/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is a life-threatening disease with a poor prognosis worldwide. Although several risk factors for survival have been identified, an ideal model for predicting prognosis has still not been developed due to the low incidence of GBC. This study aims to solve this dilemma by attempting to develop an efficient survival prediction model for GBC. METHODS This is a retrospective study. From January 2009 to June 2016, 164 patients with a confirmed histological diagnosis of gallbladder adenocarcinoma were enrolled in this study. The cohort was randomly divided into two cohorts, the development cohort (n = 110) and validation cohort (n = 54). On the basis of the risk factors identified in the development cohort, a nomogram-based predictive model (P-risk Plus), composed of carbohydrate antigen 199 and pathological characteristics, was established for prognosis. RESULTS In this model, the calibration curves for the 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival probabilities were well-matched with the actual survival rates. In addition, the highest C-index and best decision curve analysis were able to be obviously determined. Meanwhile, the P-risk Plus model result yielded a better fit for survival between the development and validation groups. CONCLUSION Compared with conventional tumor stages, our nomogram-based P-risk Plus model for gallbladder adenocarcinoma has a better predictive capacity and thereby has a better potential to facilitate decision-making clinically.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tong Yifan
- Department of General Surgery, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Li Zheyong
- Department of General Surgery, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Chen Miaoqin
- Department of Biological Treatment Research Center, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Shi Liang
- Department of General Surgery, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Cai Xiujun
- Department of General Surgery, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
| |
Collapse
|