Prognostic Value of Charlson Comorbidity Index at 30 Days and 1 Year After Acute Myocardial Infarction

Clinical Characteristics and Nomogram for Predicting Mortality in Patients with Postoperative Bloodstream Infection in Surgical Intensive Care Unit

Background

Bloodstream infection is amongst the leading causes of mortality for critical postoperative patients. However, data, especially from developing countries, are scary. Clinical decision-making tools for predicting postoperative bloodstream infection-related mortality are important but still lacking.

Objective

To analyze the distribution of pathogens and develop a nomogram for predicting mortality in patients with postoperative bloodstream infection in the surgical intensive care unit.

Methods

The clinical data, infection and pathogen-related data, and prognosis of patients with PBSI in the SICU from January 2017 to January 2022 were retrospectively collected. The distribution of pathogens and clinical characteristics of patients with PBSI were analyzed. The patients were assigned to a died group and a survived group according to their survival status. Independent predictors for mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. A nomogram for predicting PBSI-related death was developed based on these independent predictors. Calibration and decision-curve analysis were established to evaluate the nomogram. We collected postoperative patients admitted to our center from February 2022 to June 2023 as external validation sets to verify the nomogram. We also add the Brier score to further validate the model.

Results

In the training set, 7128 patients admitted to the SICU after different types of surgery were collected. A total of 198 patients and 308 pathogens were finally enrolled. The mean age of patients with PBSI was 64.38 ± 16.22 (range 18-90) years, and 56.1% were male. Forty-five patients (22.7%) died in the hospital. Five independent predictors including BMI, APACHE II score, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine volume in the first 24 hours after surgery, and peak temperature before positive blood cultures were selected to establish the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the prediction model was 0.922. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis showed good performance of the nomogram. Seventy patients with PBSI were collected as an external validation set, and thirteen patients died in this set. The external validation set was used to validate the nomogram, and the results showed that the AUC was 0.930 which was higher than that in the training set indicating that the nomogram had a good discrimination. The brier score was 0.087 for training set and 0.050 for validation set.

Conclusions

PBSI was one of the key issues that clinicians were concerned and could be assessed with a good predictive model using simple clinical factors.

ILD-GAP Combined with the Charlson Comorbidity Index Score (ILD-GAPC) as a Prognostic Prediction Model in Patients with Interstitial Lung Disease

Background

The ILD-GAP scoring system has been widely used to predict the prognosis of patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD). The ability of the ILD-GAP scoring system combined with the Charlson Comorbidity Index score (CCIS) (ILD-GAPC) to predict ILD prognosis was investigated.

Methods

In ILD patients, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (iNSIP), collagen vascular disease-related interstitial pneumonia (CVD-IP), chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (CHP), and unclassifiable ILD (UC-ILD), treated between April 2013 and April 2017, the relationships between baseline clinical parameters, including age, sex, CCIS, ILD diagnosis, pulmonary function test results, and disease outcomes, were retrospectively assessed, and the ability to predict prognosis was compared between the ILD-GAP and ILD-GAPC models, respectively.

Results

A total of 185 patients (mean age, 71.9 years), all of whom underwent pulmonary function testing, including percentage predicted diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, were assessed. ILD diagnosis consisted of IPF in 57 cases, iNSIP and CVD-IP in 117 cases, CHP in 6 cases, and UC-ILD in 5 cases. The ILD-GAPC provided a greater area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.758) for predicting 3-year ILD-related events than the ILD-GAP (0.721). In addition, log-rank tests showed that the Kaplan-Meier curves differed significantly among low, middle, and high ILD-GAPC scores (P < 0.001), unlike ILD-GAP scores (P = 0.083).

Conclusions

The ILD-GAPC model could provide more accurate information for predicting prognosis in patients with ILD than the ILD-GAP model.

Examining Risk Factors Accelerating Time-to-Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Diagnosis among Asthma Patients

Asthma patients may have an increased risk for diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, risk factors accelerating time-to-COPD diagnosis are unclear. This study aims to estimate risk factors associated with the incidence of COPD diagnosis in asthma patients. Canada's Population Data BC (PopData BC) was used to identify asthma patients without prior COPD diagnosis between January 1, 1998, to December 31, 1999. Patients were assessed for time-to-incidence of COPD diagnosis from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2018. The study estimated the effects of several risk factors in predicting the incidence of COPD in asthma patients during the 18-year follow-up period. Patient factors such as Medication Adherence (MA) were assessed by the proportion of days covered (PDC) and the medication possession ratio (MPR). The log-logistic mixed-effects accelerated failure time model was used to estimate the adjusted failure time ratios (aFTR) and 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) for factors predicting time-to-COPD diagnosis among asthma patients. We identified 68,211 asthma patients with a mean age of 48.2 years included in the analysis. Risk factors accelerating time-to-COPD diagnosis included: male sex (aFTR: 0.62, 95% CI:0.56-0.68), older adults (age > 40 years) [aFTR: 0.03, 95% CI: 0.02-0.04], history of tobacco smoking (aFTR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.13-0.68), asthma exacerbations (aFTR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.70, 0.94), frequent emergency admissions (aFTR:0.21, 95% CI: 0.17-0.25), longer hospital stay (aFTR:0.07, 95% CI: 0.06-0.09), patients with increased burden of comorbidities (aFTR:0.28, 95% CI: 0.22-0.34), obese male sex (aFTR:0.38, 95% CI: 0.15-0.99), SABA overuse (aFTR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.44-0.84), moderate (aFTR:0.23, 95% CI: 0.21-0.26), and severe asthma (aFTR:0.10, 95% CI: 0.08-0.12). After adjustment, MA ≥0.80 was significantly associated with 83% delayed time-to-COPD diagnosis [i.e. aFTR =1.83, 95%CI: 1.54-2.17 for PDC]. However, asthma severity significantly modifies the effect of MA independent of tobacco smoking history. The targeted intervention aimed to mitigate early diagnosis of COPD may prioritize enhancing medication adherence among asthma patients to prevent frequent exacerbation during follow-up.

Long-term risk of death and recurrent cardiovascular events following acute coronary syndromes

Estimates of the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events (residual risk) among patients with acute coronary syndromes have largely been based on clinical trial populations. Our objective was to estimate the residual risk associated with common comorbidities in a large, unselected, population-based cohort of acute coronary syndrome patients. 31,056 ACS patients (49.5%—non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction [NSTEMI], 34.0%—ST segment elevation myocardial infarction [STEMI] and 16.5%—unstable angina [UA]) hospitalised in Alberta between April 2010 and March 2016 were included. The primary composite outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including: death, stroke or recurrent myocardial infarction. The secondary outcome was death from any cause. Cox-proportional hazard models were used to identify the impact of ACS type and commonly observed comorbidities (heart failure, hypertension, peripheral vascular disease, renal disease, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes). At 3.0 +/- 3.7 years, rates of MACE were highest in the NSTEMI population followed by STEMI and UA (3.58, 2.41 and 1.68 per 10,000 person years respectively). Mortality was also highest in the NSTEMI population followed by STEMI and UA (2.23, 1.38 and 0.95 per 10,000 person years respectively). Increased burden of comorbidities was associated with an increased risk of MACE, most prominently seen with heart failure (adjusted HR 1.83; 95% CI 1.73–1.93), renal disease (adjusted HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.40–1.65) and diabetes (adjusted HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.44–1.59). The cumulative presence of each of examined comorbidities was associated with an incremental increase in the rate of MACE ranging from 1.7 to 9.98 per 10,000 person years. Rates of secondary prevention medications at discharge were high including: statin (89.5%), angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (84.1%) and beta-blockers (85.9%). Residual cardiovascular risk following an acute coronary syndrome remains high despite advances in secondary prevention. A higher burden of comorbidities is associated with increased residual risk that may benefit from aggressive or novel therapies.

Comorbidities and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Elderly Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Aim. To assess comorbidities in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to analyze patient subgroups with different treatment strategies in the Regional Vascular Center (RVC).

Material and methods. The prospective study included 205 patients with confirmed ACS 75 years and older, the mean age was 81±4.9 years, and 68% were women. ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was diagnosed in 46 (22.4 %) patients, non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) was diagnosed in 159 (77,6 %) patients. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was calculated in every patient. Early outcomes were defined as those assessed during hospital stay. Late outcomes were assessed at 6 months after the discharge using phone calls and/or clinic visits. All patients provided written informed consent.

Results. Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was performed in 42% of patients. In patients with STEMI and NSTEMI PCI was performed in 73% and 32%, respectively. Mean CCI score was 7.9 points: 7.6 points in men and 8.04 in women. Patients with STEMI had higher CCI score than NSTEMI patients (p<0.01): 8.1 points and 7.1 points, respectively. Patients who underwent PCI had lower CCI score (7.2 points) than patients in non-PCI group (8.2 points; p<0.05). Patients with STEMI in PCI and non-PCI groups had significant difference in CCI score (p<0.05): 7.4 and 8.4 points, respectively. Mean CCI score in patients who died in hospital was 8.5 while discharged patients had 7.6 points (p<0.01). In 6 months 13 patients (6.3%) died, their mean age was 84.9 years, mean CCI was 9 points, PCI was performed in 3 (23%) patients.

Conclusions. Elderly patients with ACS had high comorbidity level assessed by CCI score. Higher CCI score was associated with PCI non-performance in elderly patients. Elderly patients with STEMI had higher CCI score than patients with NSTEMI which was significantly associated with PCI non-performance. Patients who died in hospital or in 6 months after the ACS onset had higher CCI score than other elderly patients with ACS.

Heart up! RCT protocol to increase physical activity in cardiac patients who report hopelessness: Amended for the COVID-19 pandemic

Hopelessness is associated with decreased physical activity (PA) and increased adverse events and death in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD). Rates of PA in patients with IHD continue to be low in both hospital-based cardiac rehabilitation and home settings. While researchers have investigated strategies to increase PA among patients with IHD, interventions to promote PA specifically in IHD patients who report hopelessness are lacking. We describe the protocol for a NIH-funded randomized controlled trial designed to establish the effectiveness of a 6-week intervention (Heart Up!) to promote increased PA in IHD patients who report hopelessness. Participants (n = 225) are randomized to one of three groups: (1) motivational social support (MSS) from a nurse, (2) MSS from a nurse plus significant other support (SOS), or (3) attention control. Aims are to: (1) test the effectiveness of 6 weeks of MSS and MSS with SOS on increasing mean minutes per day of moderate to vigorous PA; (2) determine the effects of change in moderate to vigorous PA on hopelessness; and (3) determine if perceived social support and motivation (exercise self-regulation) mediate the effects of the intervention on PA. A total of 69 participants have been enrolled to date. The protocol has been consistently and accurately used by research personnel. We address the protocol challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic and steps taken to maintain fidelity to the intervention. Findings from this study could transform care for IHD patients who report hopelessness by promoting self-management of important PA goals that can contribute to better health outcomes.

Differential prognostic effect of revascularization according to a simple comorbidity index in high-risk non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

Data on the effect of revascularization on outcome in patients with high-risk non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS) and significant comorbidities are scarce. Recently, a simple comorbidity index (SCI) including 5 comorbidities (renal failure, dementia, peripheral artery disease, heart failure, and prior myocardial infarction [MI]) has shown to be a useful tool for risk stratification. Nevertheless, therapeutic implications have not been derived.

HYPOTHESIS

We sought to evaluate the prognostic effect attributable to revascularization in NSTEACS according the SCI score.

METHODS

We included 1017 consecutive patients with NSTEACS. The effect of revascularization on a combined end point of all-cause mortality or nonfatal MI was evaluated by Cox regression according to SCI categories.

RESULTS

A total of 560 (55.1%), 236 (23.2%), and 221 (21.7%) patients showed 0, 1, and ≥2 points according to the SCI, respectively. Coronary angiography was performed in 725 patients (71.5%), and 450 patients (44.3%) underwent revascularization. During a median follow-up of 16 months (interquartile range, 12-36 months), 305 (30%) patients experienced the combined end point (202 deaths [19.9%] and 170 MIs [16.7%]). In multivariate analysis, a differential prognostic effect of revascularization was observed comparing SCI ≥2 vs 0 (P for interaction = 0.008). Thus, revascularization was associated with a greater prognostic benefit in patients with SCI ≥2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.29-0.89), P = 0.018), whereas no significant benefit was observed in those with 0 and 1 point (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 0.88-1.94, P = 0.171 and HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.70-1.76, P = 0.651, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In NSTEACS, the SCI score appears to be a useful tool for identifying a subset of patients with a significant long-term death/MI risk reduction attributable to revascularization.

[Impact of comorbidities on in-hospital mortality from acute myocardial infarction, 2003-2009]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Treatment of acute myocardial infarction has changed notably in recent years. The objective of this study was to analyze trends in in-hospital mortality during the period 2003-2009 and to examine how changes in comorbidity indices affected mortality prediction models for acute myocardial infarction using the minimum basic data set.

METHODS

During the study period, 5275 cases of acute myocardial infarction were admitted. Mortality rates were calculated by age and sex and Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity index scores were obtained on admission for every patient. Trends were analyzed and their validity studied. Multivariate models predictive of mortality were derived and compared.

RESULTS

Mean age and comorbidities increased in all patients over the period 2003-2009. In spite of these trends, acute myocardial infarction mortality decreased. Comorbidity indices remained valid when the criterion "present on admission" was applied. Multivariate predictive models included age, sex, medical treatment, coronary revascularization and a comorbidity index or specific comorbidities. The model with specific comorbidities showed the best predictive ability. All models found that age and comorbidities increased the risk of death, and that coronary revascularization and treatment with anticoagulants, fibrinolytics, and platelet antiaggregants were protective factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the fact that the mean age and number of comorbidities in acute myocardial infarction patients has increased year over year, acute myocardial infarction mortality has decreased, probably because of more frequent reperfusion and revascularization therapy and better medical treatment.

In-hospital mortality rates after CABG by autonomous regions in Spain

PURPOSE

The paper's purpose is twofold: to provide a predictive model for estimating in-hospital mortality rates after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in Spanish autonomous regions (AR) after adjusting relevant factors; and to determine whether there is a difference between expected and observed mortality rates.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

All patients registered in a minimum basic data set (MSBD) undergoing CABG between 2000 and 2004 were selected. After bivariate analysis to explore associations between in-hospital death and other variables, a multivariate analysis using logistic regression was conducted. The predictive model was evaluated using calibration and discrimination techniques. Standardized mortality ratios by AR were calculated.

FINDINGS

The expected Spanish in-hospital mortality rate after CABG was 7.68 and the observed rate was 7.69 deaths per 100 operations. Discrimination obtained with the model resulted in an area under the curve of 0.70 (95 per cent CI, 0.69-0.71). When each AR's mortality rate is calculated and compared with the observed rate, some ARs present an observed mortality rate higher or lower than the expected rate according to adjusted variables in the model.

RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS

The MSBD registry does not contain patients' critical data, such as arterial damage severity, or in which hospital procedures were performed.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

There are factors related to individual patient variation, financial resources or healthcare quality in different ARs, which should be investigated in follow-up studies.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

The paper shows that, although the global expected mortality rate is almost the same as the observed Spanish mortality rate, this similarity disappears when AR rates are compared.

Prognosis and management of patients with acute coronary syndrome and polyvascular disease

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

To assess prognosis and patterns of care in patients with acute coronary syndrome and peripheral arterial disease (PAD), cerebrovascular disease or both (i.e., polyvascular disease) in everyday clinical practice.

METHODS

We used data from the MASCARA acute coronary syndrome registry for 2004 and 2005. Patients were stratified according to the presence of PAD, cerebrovascular disease, neither, or both. In-hospital management, treatment at discharge and outcomes at 6 months were recorded.

RESULTS

Of 6745 patients, 597 (8.85%) had PAD, 392 (5.8%) had cerebrovascular disease, 131 (1.94%) had both and 5625 (83.4%) had neither. Patients with polyvascular disease had more extensive coronary disease, but less often received regularly recommended treatment (e.g., 75% with PAD received aspirin at discharge versus 84% of those without). In-hospital and 6-month mortality were significantly higher (P< .001) in patients with PAD (9.1% and 24.5%, respectively) or cerebrovascular disease (9.2% and 22.4%, respectively) or, especially, both (16.0% and 29.8%, respectively) than in those free from these conditions (4.8% and 10.8%, respectively). Cerebrovascular disease, PAD and their combination were all independently associated with in-hospital and 6-month mortality: for cerebrovascular disease, the odds ratio (OR) for mortality at 6 months was 1.45 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.02); for PAD, it was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.45-2.40); and for both combined, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.17-3.00).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with acute coronary syndrome and concomitant arterial disease had more extensive coronary artery disease and poorer outcomes, both inhospital and at 6 months, but frequently did not receive regularly recommended treatment.