Violence risk assessment instruments in forensic psychiatric populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Forensic mental health: envisioning a more empirical future

Forensic mental health services provide crucial interventions for society. Such services provide care for people with mental disorders who commit violent and other serious crimes, and they have a key role in the protection of the public. To achieve these goals, these services are necessarily expensive, but they have been criticised for a high-cost, low-volume approach, for lacking consistent standards of care, and for neglecting human rights and other ethical considerations. A key concern is an insufficient evidence base to justify common practices, such as restricting leave from hospital and detaining patients for long periods. There is also insufficient quality evidence for core interventions, including psychological therapies, pharmacotherapy, and seclusion and restraint. The causes for this evidence deficit are complex but include insufficient investment in research infrastructure and fragmentation and isolationism of services, both nationally and internationally. In this Personal View, we highlight some of the major gaps in the forensic mental health evidence base and the challenges in addressing these gaps. We suggest solutions with implications at clinical, societal, and public health policy levels.

Evaluation of whether commonly used risk assessment tools are applicable to women in forensic psychiatric institutions

OBJECTIVE

By providing a structured assessment of specific risk factors, risk assessment tools allow statements to be made about the likelihood of future recidivism in people who have committed a crime. These tools were originally developed for and primarily tested in men and are mainly based on the usual criminological background of men. Despite significant progress in the last decade, there is still a lack of empirical research on female offenders, especially female forensic psychiatric inpatients. To improve prognosis in female offenders, we performed a retrospective study to compare the predictive quality of the following risk assessment tools: PCL-R, LSI-R, HCR-20 v3, FAM, and VRAG-R.

METHOD

Data were collected from the information available in the medical files of 525 female patients who had been discharged between 2001 and 2017. We examined the ability of the tools to predict general and violent recidivism by comparing the predictions with information from the Federal Central Criminal Register.

RESULTS

Overall, the prediction instruments had moderate to good predictive performance, and the study confirmed their general applicability to female forensic psychiatric patients.

CONCLUSION

The LSI-R proved to be particularly valid for general recidivism, and both, LSI-R and HCR-20 v3, for violent recidivism.

The development of early warning scores or alerting systems for the prediction of adverse events in psychiatric patients: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Adverse events in psychiatric settings present ongoing challenges for both patients and staff. Despite advances in psychiatric interventions and treatments, research on early warning scores and tools to predict patient deterioration is limited. This review provides a summary of the few tools that have been developed in a psychiatric setting, comparing machine learning (ML) and nonmachine learning/traditional methodologies. The outcomes of interest include the selected key variables that contribute to adverse events and the performance and validation measures of the predictive models.

METHODS

Three databases, Ovid MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Embase, were searched between February 2023 and April 2023 to identify all relevant studies that included a combination of (and were not limited to) the following search terms: "Early warning," "Alerting tool," and "Psychiatry". Peer-reviewed primary research publications were included without imposing any date restrictions. A total of 1,193 studies were screened. A total of 9 studies met the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were included in this review. The PICOS model, the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Reviewer's Manual, and PRISMA guidelines were applied.

RESULTS

This review identified nine studies that developed predictive models for adverse events in psychiatric settings. Encompassing 41,566 participants across studies that used both ML and non-ML algorithmic approaches, performance metrics, primarily AUC ROC, varied among studies between 0.62 and 0.95. The best performing model that had also been validated was the random forest (RF) ML model, with a score of 0.87 and a high sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 88%.

CONCLUSION

Currently, few predictive models have been developed for adverse events and patient deterioration in psychiatric settings. The findings of this review suggest that the use of ML and non-ML algorithms show moderate to good performance in predicting adverse events at the hospitals/units where the tool was developed. Understanding these models and the methodology of the studies is crucial for enhancing patient care as well as staff and patient safety research. Further research on the development and implementation of predictive tools in psychiatry should be carried out to assess the feasibility and efficacy of the tool in psychiatric patients.

Intervening factors between risk of violence and aggressive behaviours among forensic inpatients: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Risk of violence is closely associated with aggression propensity. However, there is a lack of research to explain the mechanisms behind this association, especially among the patients of forensic secure facilities. This review aimed to identify and synthesize the available literature concerning the intervening factors (mediating or moderating factors) in the relationship between the risk of violence and aggressive behavior in forensic secure facilities.

METHODS

Two electronic academic databases were searched: Scopus and Web of Science (WoS) using specific keywords as search terms derived from the PCC framework with no specific time limit. The search strategy was developed based on the JBI Manual for Evidence Synthesis and utilised the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Data on the risk of violence, intervening factors, and aggressive behavior were extracted from the included studies. Further analysis was performed whereby similar data were grouped and synthesised together.

RESULTS

The initial search produced 342 studies. However, only nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The nine studies included 1,068 adult forensic inpatients from various psychiatric hospitals. Only mediation studies reported significant mechanisms of influence between the risk of violence and aggressive behavior. It is postulated that the human agency factor may be the underlying factor that influences a person's functioning and the subsequent series of events between the risk of violence and aggression.

CONCLUSIONS

In light of the paucity of evidence in this area, a generalised conclusion cannot be established. More studies are warranted to address the gaps before conclusive recommendations can be proposed to the relevant stakeholders.

The predictive validity of the V-RISK-10 and BVC among involuntarily admitted patients

Although endangerment towards others is a criterion for an involuntary admission in many countries, research on risk assessment of endangerment among involuntarily admitted individuals is limited. In this retrospective case-control study, we calculated scores for a German-translated version of the Violence Risk Screening-10 (V-RISK-10) and the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC) in a sample of 111 people undergoing an involuntary admission in Reinickendorf, Berlin. Outcomes were violence, coercive measures, and readmission. In line with our hypotheses, the BVC demonstrated stronger predictive validities for short-term, and V-RISK-10 for long-term events. There was an incremental validity for both instruments for restraint 24 hours after admission and any violence until discharge. These findings support the evidence that structured risk assessment instruments may be useful for individuals undergoing an involuntary admission. Ethical considerations about screening procedures are discussed.

Neuropsychological assessment of aggressive offenders: a Delphi consensus study

Objective

This study explores the intricate relationship between cognitive functioning and aggression, with a specific focus on individuals prone to reactive or proactive aggression. The purpose of the study was to identify important neuropsychological constructs and suitable tests for comprehending and addressing aggression.

Methods

An international panel of 32 forensic neuropsychology experts participated in this three-round Delphi study consisting of iterative online questionnaires. The experts rated the importance of constructs based on the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework. Subsequently, they suggested tests that can be used to assess these constructs and rated their suitability.

Results

The panel identified the RDoC domains Negative Valence Systems, Social Processes, Cognitive Systems and Positive Valence Systems as most important in understanding aggression. Notably, the results underscore the significance of Positive Valence Systems in proactive aggression and Negative Valence Systems in reactive aggression. The panel suggested a diverse array of 223 different tests, although they noted that not every RDoC construct can be effectively measured through a neuropsychological test. The added value of a multimodal assessment strategy is discussed.

Conclusions

This research advances our understanding of the RDoC constructs related to aggression and provides valuable insights for assessment strategies. Rather than suggesting a fixed set of tests, our study takes a flexible approach by presenting a top-3 list for each construct. This approach allows for tailored assessment to meet specific clinical or research needs. An important limitation is the predominantly Dutch composition of the expert panel, despite extensive efforts to diversify.

Structural brain abnormalities and aggressive behaviour in schizophrenia: Mega-analysis of data from 2095 patients and 2861 healthy controls via the ENIGMA consortium

Background

Schizophrenia is associated with an increased risk of aggressive behaviour, which may partly be explained by illness-related changes in brain structure. However, previous studies have been limited by group-level analyses, small and selective samples of inpatients and long time lags between exposure and outcome.

Methods

This cross-sectional study pooled data from 20 sites participating in the international ENIGMA-Schizophrenia Working Group. Sites acquired T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans in a total of 2095 patients with schizophrenia and 2861 healthy controls. Measures of grey matter volume and white matter microstructural integrity were extracted from the scans using harmonised protocols. For each measure, normative modelling was used to calculate how much patients deviated (in z-scores) from healthy controls at the individual level. Ordinal regression models were used to estimate the associations of these deviations with concurrent aggressive behaviour (as odds ratios [ORs] with 99% confidence intervals [CIs]). Mediation analyses were performed for positive symptoms (i.e., delusions, hallucinations and disorganised thinking), impulse control and illness insight. Aggression and potential mediators were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms or Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale.

Results

Aggressive behaviour was significantly associated with reductions in total cortical volume (OR [99% CI] = 0.88 [0.78, 0.98], p = .003) and global white matter integrity (OR [99% CI] = 0.72 [0.59, 0.88], p = 3.50 × 10-5) and additional reductions in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex volume (OR [99% CI] = 0.85 [0.74, 0.97], p =.002), inferior parietal lobule volume (OR [99% CI] = 0.76 [0.66, 0.87], p = 2.20 × 10-7) and internal capsule integrity (OR [99% CI] = 0.76 [0.63, 0.92], p = 2.90 × 10-4). Except for inferior parietal lobule volume, these associations were largely mediated by increased severity of positive symptoms and reduced impulse control.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence that the co-occurrence of positive symptoms, poor impulse control and aggressive behaviour in schizophrenia has a neurobiological basis, which may inform the development of therapeutic interventions.

EEG biomarkers of behavioral inhibition in patients with depression who committed violent offenses: a Go/NoGo ERP study

Understanding the neurobiological correlates of behavioral inhibition in patients with depression who committed violent offenses could contribute to the prediction and prevention of violence. The present study recruited 29 depressed patients with violent offenses (VD group), 27 depressed patients without violent behavior (NVD group), and 28 healthy controls (HC group) to complete a visual Go/NoGo task, during which their responses and electroencephalography were simultaneously recorded using an event-related potentiometer. The results showed that the VD group made more commission errors and responded more slowly relative to the NVD and HC groups. The P3 amplitude of the VD group was reduced in the frontal and central brain regions compared to the HC group and increased in the parietal regions compared to the NVD group. In comparison to Go stimuli, NoGo stimuli induced longer P3 latencies in frontal regions in both the VD and NVD groups; however, this difference was not statistically significant in the HC group. These results provide electrophysical evidence of behavioral inhibition deficits in patients with depression, especially in those with violent behaviors. The reduced P3 amplitude in the frontal-central regions, increased P3 amplitude in the parietal regions, and increased NoGo P3 latency may be potential electrophysiological features that can predict violent behavior in patients with depression.