Trends in HIV testing, the treatment cascade, and HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Sociodemographic correlates of late HIV diagnosis among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ghana

Timely HIV diagnosis and medical engagement are crucial for effective viral load suppression and treatment as prevention. However, significant delays persist, particularly in Africa, including Ghana. This study focused on Ghanaian men whose route of exposure to HIV was through same-gender sexual contact (MSM), a group disproportionately impacted by HIV. Using structured surveys, we investigated the sociodemographic factors associated with late HIV diagnosis, a topic with limited existing research. Results indicate that older age groups were associated with an increased risk of late diagnosis compared to the 18-24 age group. Among the demographic variables studied, only age showed a consistent association with late HIV diagnosis. This study underscores the importance of targeted interventions to address HIV diagnosis disparities among MSM in Ghana, particularly for older age groups. The findings emphasize the need for tailored interventions addressing age-related disparities in timely diagnosis and engagement with medical services among this population. Such interventions can play a crucial role in reducing the burden of HIV within this community and fostering improved public health outcomes.

The predictive accuracy of machine learning for the risk of death in HIV patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of mortality in individuals with HIV (PWH) has perpetually posed a formidable challenge. With the widespread integration of machine learning into clinical practice, some researchers endeavor to formulate models predicting the mortality risk for PWH. Nevertheless, the diverse timeframes of mortality among PWH and the potential multitude of modeling variables have cast doubt on the efficacy of the current predictive model for HIV-related deaths. To address this, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis, aiming to comprehensively assess the utilization of machine learning in the early prediction of HIV-related deaths and furnish evidence-based support for the advancement of artificial intelligence in this domain.

METHODS

We systematically combed through the PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science databases on November 25, 2023. To evaluate the bias risk in the original studies included, we employed the Predictive Model Bias Risk Assessment Tool (PROBAST). During the meta-analysis, we conducted subgroup analysis based on survival and non-survival models. Additionally, we utilized meta-regression to explore the influence of death time on the predictive value of the model for HIV-related deaths.

RESULTS

After our comprehensive review, we analyzed a total of 24 pieces of literature, encompassing data from 401,389 individuals diagnosed with HIV. Within this dataset, 23 articles specifically delved into deaths during long-term follow-ups outside hospital settings. The machine learning models applied for predicting these deaths comprised survival models (COX regression) and other non-survival models. The outcomes of the meta-analysis unveiled that within the training set, the c-index for predicting deaths among people with HIV (PWH) using predictive models stands at 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75-0.91). In the validation set, the c-index is slightly lower at 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.85). Notably, the meta-regression analysis demonstrated that neither follow-up time nor the occurrence of death events significantly impacted the performance of the machine learning models.

CONCLUSIONS

The study suggests that machine learning is a viable approach for developing non-time-based predictions regarding HIV deaths. Nevertheless, the limited inclusion of original studies necessitates additional multicenter studies for thorough validation.

Sexual behaviours and risk with women in MSM in sub-Saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), MSM - a high HIV prevalence group - experience strong social stigma and pressure to have female partners. Accordingly, they could constitute a bridging group for HIV transmission to cisgender women. We developed a multilevel summary of MSM sexual behaviors and risk with women in various SSA regions. Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a mixed-method systematic review of data of sex with women in MSM in SSA. We performed meta-analyses on quantitative data (i.e. percent of recent sex and condomless sex with women) for each SSA region (when proportions reported in ≥4 studies). Pooled proportions were calculated using random-effects models. Qualitative data were analyzed using the three-step thematic synthesis methodology. The pooled proportion of MSM who had sex with women was 58% (33-83%) in East Africa (in the previous 3 months), and 27% (13-48%) in Southern Africa and 50% (95% CI 39-62%) in West Africa (in the previous 6 months); 23% (16-32%) of MSM in West Africa had condomless sex with a woman (during the most recent encounter). Approximately one quarter of MSM had recent multiple female partners. MSM reported having sex with women because of heteronormative pressure, erotic/romantic attraction, or financial needs leading to transactional sex. MSM may act as a bridging population to women in SSA, as they commonly practice sex with women and risky sexual behaviors with them. HIV programmes and community-based support for MSM should be adapted to this population to reduce this risk.

New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation

BACKGROUND

Previously, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated proportions of adult new HIV infections among key populations (KPs) in the last calendar year, globally and in 8 regions. We refined and updated these, for 2010 and 2022, using country-level trend models informed by national data.

METHODS

Infections among 15-49 year olds were estimated for sex workers (SWs), male clients of female SW, men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender women (TGW), and non-KP sex partners of these groups. Transmission models used were Goals (71 countries), AIDS Epidemic Model (13 Asian countries), Optima (9 European and Central Asian countries), and Thembisa (South Africa). Statistical Estimation and Projection Package fits were used for 15 countries. For 40 countries, new infections in 1 or more KPs were approximated from first-time diagnoses by the mode of transmission. Infection proportions among nonclient partners came from Goals, Optima, AIDS Epidemic Model, and Thembisa. For remaining countries and groups not represented in models, median proportions by KP were extrapolated from countries modeled within the same region.

RESULTS

Across 172 countries, estimated proportions of new adult infections in 2010 and 2022 were both 7.7% for SW, 11% and 20% for MSM, 0.72% and 1.1% for TGW, 6.8% and 8.0% for PWID, 12% and 10% for clients, and 5.3% and 8.2% for nonclient partners. In sub-Saharan Africa, proportions of new HIV infections decreased among SW, clients, and non-KP partners but increased for PWID; elsewhere these groups' 2010-to-2022 differences were opposite. For MSM and TGW, the proportions increased across all regions.

CONCLUSIONS

KPs continue to have disproportionately high HIV incidence.

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models

BACKGROUND

Key populations (KPs), including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender women (TGW) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition. The UNAIDS Global AIDS 2022 Update reported that one-quarter of all new HIV infections occurred among their non-KP sexual partners. However, this fraction relied on heuristics regarding the ratio of new infections that KPs transmitted to their non-KP partners to the new infections acquired among KPs (herein referred to as "infection ratios"). We recalculated these ratios using dynamic transmission models.

SETTING

One hundred seventy-eight settings (106 countries).

METHODS

Infection ratios for FSW, MSM, PWID, TGW, and clients of FSW were estimated from 12 models for 2020.

RESULTS

Median model estimates of infection ratios were 0.7 (interquartile range: 0.5-1.0; n = 172 estimates) and 1.2 (0.8-1.8; n = 127) for acquisitions from FSW clients and transmissions from FSW to all their non-KP partners, respectively, which were comparable with the previous UNAIDS assumptions (0.2-1.5 across regions). Model estimates for female partners of MSM were 0.5 (0.2-0.8; n = 20) and 0.3 (0.2-0.4; n = 10) for partners of PWID across settings in Eastern and Southern Africa, lower than the corresponding UNAIDS assumptions (0.9 and 0.8, respectively). The few available model estimates for TGW were higher [5.1 (1.2-7.0; n = 8)] than the UNAIDS assumptions (0.1-0.3). Model estimates for non-FSW partners of FSW clients in Western and Central Africa were high (1.7; 1.0-2.3; n = 29).

CONCLUSIONS

Ratios of new infections among non-KP partners relative to KP were high, confirming the importance of better addressing prevention and treatment needs among KP as central to reducing overall HIV incidence.

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates.

METHODS

We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence. Dynamic HIV transmission model estimates of HIV incidence and percentage of new infections among key populations were extracted from 94 country applications of 9 mathematical models. We compared these with UNAIDS-reported distribution of new infections, implied key population HIV incidence and incidence-to-prevalence ratios.

RESULTS

Across SSA, empirical FSW HIV incidence was 8.6-fold (95% confidence interval: 5.7 to 12.9) higher than total population female 15-39 year incidence, and MSM HIV incidence was 41.8-fold (95% confidence interval: 21.9 to 79.6) male 15-29 year incidence. Combined with KPSE, these implied 12% of new HIV infections in 2021 were among FSW and MSM (5% and 7% respectively). In sensitivity analysis varying KPSE proportions within 95% uncertainty range, the proportion of new infections among FSW and MSM was between 9% and 19%. Insufficient data were available to estimate PWID incidence rate ratios. Across 94 models, median proportion of new infections among FSW, MSM, and PWID was 6.4% (interquartile range 3.2%-11.7%), both much lower than the 25% reported by UNAIDS.

CONCLUSION

Empirically derived and model-based estimates of HIV incidence confirm dramatically higher HIV risk among key populations in SSA. Estimated proportions of new infections among key populations in 2021 were sensitive to population size assumptions and were substantially lower than estimates reported by UNAIDS.

Lower rate of mpox vaccination hesitancy and medical consultation among Chinese men who have sex with men living with HIV in comparison with those living without HIV: A national observational study

This anonymous cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the relationships between HIV infection and mpox-related focus issues among Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM). This study involved in 27 MSM social organizations and was conducted from July 31 to August 4, 2023. Mpox vaccination hesitancy was defined as the proportion of participants who expressed unwillingness to receive self-funded and free vaccines. Logistic regression models were employed to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI). Of 7196 MSMs, the prevalence of mpox differed between people living with HIV (PLWH) (1.04%, 20/1920) and people living without HIV (PLWoH) (0.55%, 29/5276) (P = .037). However, after adjusting for all covariates, there was no significant association between HIV status and mpox (aOR = 1.17; 95%CI = 0.58, 2.39; P = .658). Furthermore, the crude rates of vaccination hesitation (PLWoH: 5.91%, PLWH: 4.11%; P = .004) and consultation hesitation (PLWoH: 16.22%, PLWH: 10.78%; P < .001) were both lower in the PLWH. Compared with PLWoH, PLWH had lower odds ratios of vaccination hesitation (aOR = 0.70; 95%CI = 0.53, 0.92; P = .011) and consultation hesitation (aOR = 0.74; 95%CI = 0.60, 0.90; P = .003) among MSM. The estimate of association between HIV status and consultation hesitation was even smaller among MSM who reported hepatitis C infection or uncertainty (aOR = 0.30; 95%CI = 0.15, 0.56), compared with those without hepatitis C (aOR = 0.73; 95%CI = 0.60, 0.89) (P for interaction = .037). MSM living with HIV in China demonstrated a greater willingness to accept mpox vaccination and medical consultation. In the future, it is recommended that medical institutions establish good medical environment to control the mpox epidemic, especially for PLWH.

The iron group transition-metal (Fe, Ru, Os) coordination of Se-doped graphitic carbon (Se@g-C3N4) nanostructures for the smart therapeutic delivery of zidovudine (ZVD) as an antiretroviral drug: a theoretical calculation perspective

This study employed density functional theory (DFT) computational techniques at the ωB97XD/def2svp level of theory to comprehensively explore the electronic behavior of Fe-group transition metal (Fe, Ru, Os) coordination of Se-doped graphitic carbon (Se@g-C3N4) nanosystems in the smart delivery of zidovudine (ZVD), an antiretroviral drug. The HOMO-LUMO results of the interactions show a general reduction in energy gap values across all complexes in the following order: ZVD_Se@C3N4 < ZVD_Ru_Se@C3N4 < ZVD_Fe_Se@C3N4 < ZVD_Os_Se@C3N4. ZVD_Se@C3N4 exhibits the smallest post-interaction band gap of 3.783 eV, while ZVD_Os_Se@C3N4 presents the highest energy band gap of 5.438 eV. Results from the corrected adsorption energy (BSSE) revealed that Os_Se@C3N4 and Ru_Se@C3N4 demonstrated more negative adsorption energies of -2.67 and -2.701 eV, respectively, pointing to a more favorable interaction between ZVD and these systems, thus potentially enhancing the drug delivery efficiency. The investigation into the drug release mechanism from the adsorbents involved a comprehensive examination of the dipole moment and the influence of pH, shedding light on the controlled release of ZVD. Additionally, investigating the energy decomposition analysis (EDA) revealed that ZVD_Ru_Se@C3N4 and ZVD_Fe_Se@C3N4 exhibited the same total energy of -787.7 kJ mol-1. This intriguing similarity in their total energy levels suggested that their stability was governed by factors beyond reactivity, possibly due to intricate orbital interactions. Furthermore, analyzing the bond dissociation energies showed that all systems exhibited negative enthalpy values, indicating that these systems were exothermic at both surface and interaction levels, thus suggesting that these processes emitted heat, contributing to the surrounding thermal energy.