Longitudinal trends in causes of death among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America from 1996 to 2020: a collaboration of cohort studies

All-cause and AIDS-related mortality among people with HIV across Europe from 2001 to 2020: impact of antiretroviral therapy, tuberculosis and regional differences in a multicentre cohort study

Background

All-cause and AIDS-mortality in Europe has been decreasing between 1996 and 2020. However, regional differences as well as their drivers remain unclear. This study investigates mortality differences and their drivers, including usage of and response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and active tuberculosis (TB), among people with HIV across Europe.

Methods

People with HIV enrolled in EuroSIDA were followed from 2001 through 2020. Immunologic-virologic status (IVS) was categorized as poor (CD4-cell count ≤350 cells/mm3 and viral load (VL) > 200 copies/ml), good (CD4 ≥ 500 and VL < 200), or intermediate (remaining combinations). Participants missing either CD4-cell count or VL were categorized as unknown. Regional differences in mortality were analyzed using multivariable Poisson regression with interaction analyses between regions of Europe and IVS, ART, or TB status.

Findings

20,364 people with HIV were included: 13,715/20,346 (67.3%) from Western, 3020/20,364 (14.8%) from Central Eastern, and 3629/20,364 (17.8%) from Eastern Europe. At enrolment, median age was 40 years (inter-quartile range (IQR): 33-48), median CD4-cell count 449 cells/mm3 (IQR: 291-638), and most were male 14,993/20,346 (73.3%). A total of 2639 died during 192,591 person-years of follow-up (crude mortality rate 13.7/1000 person-years, 95% CI: 13.2-14.2), 519/2639 (19.7%) from AIDS (2.7/1000 person-years, 2.5-2.9). All-cause and AIDS-mortality rates decreased over time but remained higher in Eastern Europe after adjusting for confounders. Being off ART (aIRR 2.42; 95% CI 2.14-2.74), poor IVS (aIRR 4.2; 95% CI 3.39-5.20) and prior TB (aIRR 3.33; 95% CI 2.75-4.03) were associated with higher all-cause mortality. For all-cause mortality the effect of ART (test for interaction: p < 0.001) and IVS (p = 0.02), but not TB (p = 0.5) varied across regions.

Interpretation

Overall mortality and AIDS-mortality rates decreased over time, but remained higher in Eastern Europe. A poor IVS, being off ART and prior active TB were related to higher mortality. Eastern Europe had the highest proportion of people with poor or unknown IVS, emphasizing the continued need to improve HIV care with a focus on early diagnosis, ART initiation, and adherence.

Funding

EuroSIDA has received funding from ViiV Healthcare LLC, Janssen Scientific Affairs, Janssen R&D, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp, Gilead Sciences and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under EuroCoord grant agreement n˚ 260694. The study is also supported by a grant from the Danish National Research Foundation and by the International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Disease (RESPOND).

Care interruptions and mortality among adults in Europe and North America

OBJECTIVE

Interruptions in care of people with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are associated with adverse outcomes, but most studies have relied on composite outcomes. We investigated whether mortality risk following care interruptions differed from mortality risk after first starting ART.

DESIGN

Collaboration of 18 European and North American HIV observational cohort studies of adults with HIV starting ART between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

Care interruptions were defined as gaps in contact of ≥365 days, with a subsequent return to care (distinct from loss to follow-up), or ≥270 days and ≥545 days in sensitivity analyses. Follow-up time was allocated to no/preinterruption or postinterruption follow-up groups. We used Cox regression to compare hazards of mortality between care interruption groups, adjusting for time-updated demographic and clinical characteristics and biomarkers upon ART initiation or re-initiation of care.

RESULTS

Of 89 197 PWH, 83.4% were male and median age at ART start was 39 years [interquartile range (IQR): 31-48)]. 8654 PWH (9.7%) had ≥1 care interruption; 10 913 episodes of follow-up following a care interruption were included. There were 6104 deaths in 536 334 person-years, a crude mortality rate of 11.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 11.1-11.7] per 1000 person-years. The adjusted mortality hazard ratio (HR) for the postinterruption group was 1.72 (95% CI: 1.57-1.88) compared with the no/preinterruption group. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses assuming ≥270-day (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.40-1.60) and ≥545-day (HR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.48-1.88) interruptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality was higher among PWH reinitiating care following an interruption, compared with when PWH initially start ART, indicating the importance of uninterrupted care.

Discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Cause-specific Mortality Among Persons With HIV in Europe and North America

Background

Predicting cause-specific mortality among people with HIV (PWH) could facilitate targeted care to improve survival. We assessed discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 in predicting cause-specific mortality among PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

Using Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration data for PWH who initiated ART between 2000 and 2018, VACS Index 2.0 scores (higher scores indicate worse prognosis) were calculated around a randomly selected visit date at least 1 year after ART initiation. Missingness in VACS Index 2.0 variables was addressed through multiple imputation. Cox models estimated associations between VACS Index 2.0 and causes of death, with discrimination evaluated using Harrell's C-statistic. Absolute mortality risk was modelled using flexible parametric survival models.

Results

Of 59 741 PWH (mean age: 43 years; 80% male), the mean VACS Index 2.0 at baseline was 41 (range: 0-129). For 2425 deaths over 168 162 person-years follow-up (median: 2.6 years/person), AIDS (n = 455) and non-AIDS-defining cancers (n = 452) were the most common causes. Predicted 5-year mortality for PWH with a mean VACS Index 2.0 score of 38 at baseline was 1% and approximately doubled for every 10-unit increase. The 5-year all-cause mortality C-statistic was .83. Discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths resulting from AIDS (0.91), liver-related (0.91), respiratory-related (0.89), non-AIDS infections (0.87), and non-AIDS-defining cancers (0.83), and lowest for suicides/accidental deaths (0.65).

Conclusions

For deaths among PWH, discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths with measurable physiological causes and was lowest for suicide/accidental deaths.

Beyond identity and generations: bringing life course theory to studies of older gay men

The last century's numerous, rapid social changes affecting gay men make studies of gay male aging a ripe topic for life course theory, which views later life as the product of historical grounded interchanges between individual lives, social change, and structural contexts. That identifying as gay can occur at any point in the life course widens some life course theorists' primary focus on early-life events to include those occurring throughout the life course. Yet most historically-attentive research on older gay men focuses on generations and identity development rather than on cohorts - groups who entered a system or context at the same time - or on the cumulative, concrete outcomes of encountering social change at a particular point in the life course. This article argues for gay male aging studies' use of life course theory, specifically, its focus on cohort membership's implications for later life, including cumulative disadvantage, in addition to more generationally-focused investigations. After briefly reviewing scholarship on older gay men, we introduce the life course approach and its critique by queer gerontologists for adopting a heteronormative view of the LGBT life course and eliding its distinctive contours. With particular attention to later-life concrete outcomes rather than identity formation, we explore key historical events in gay men's lives that have produced (in the case of the AIDS epidemic) or could produce (for example, the Marriage Equality Act, the Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy) distinctive gay male cohorts. We then consider intra-cohort variation within gay male cohorts before exploring some the barriers to investigating cohorts and cohort effects among older gay men.