Long-term mortality burden trends attributed to black carbon and PM2·5 from wildfire emissions across the continental USA from 2000 to 2020: a deep learning modelling study

Particulate black carbon mass concentrations and the episodic source identification driven by atmospheric blocking effects in Astana, Kazakhstan

Black carbon (BC) is a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) that is a key contributor to adverse human health effects and climate forcing. To date, BC mass concentrations and possible sources in Kazakhstan have not been studied. Thus, understanding the temporal variations of BC for a large developing region with a complex climate is useful. In this study, measurements of fine particulate BC mass concentrations in Astana were made from June 2020 to October 2021 by measuring light absorption of PM2.5 on filters. The mean BC concentration was 2.56 ± 1.29 μg m-3 with maximum and minimum monthly mean BC concentrations being 4.56 ± 2.03 μg m-3 and 1.12 ± 0.42 μg m-3 in January 2021 and June 2020, respectively. Temporal analyses of BC, SO2, PM10, NOx, CO, meteorological and atmospheric stability parameters were performed. Aggregated pollutant 'episodic loadings' during the heating and non-heating periods were identified. Their relationships with blocking anticyclones and cyclones were investigated by examining the reversal of meridional gradients at 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) maps and identifying Omega (Ω) and Rex blocking types. Astana has some of the highest BC concentrations of cities worldwide. Seasonal BC source location identification using Conditional Bivariate Probability Function (CBPF) analysis implicated combined heat and power (CHP) plant emissions as the major BC source in Astana. Significant increases in BC concentrations were observed during the cold season due to numerous sources, generally poorer atmospheric dispersion and blocking events. The Concentration Weighted Trajectory (CWT) analysis results showed that the distribution of the 75th percentile of BC during episodic periods actively controlled by blockings exceeding than the entire measurement period, which may reflect cross-border transport and adjacent countries.

New insights into black carbon light absorption enhancement: A comprehensive analysis of two differential behaviors

High uncertainty in optical properties of black carbon (BC) involving heterogeneous chemistry has recently attracted increasing attention in the field of atmospheric climatology. To fill the gap in BC optical knowledge so as to estimate more accurate climate effects and serve the response to global warming, it is beneficial to conduct site-level studies on BC light absorption enhancement (Eabs) characteristics. Real-time surface gas and particulate pollutant observations during the summer and winter over Wuhan were utilized for the analysis of Eabs simulated by minimum R squared (MRS), considering two distinct atmospheric conditions (2015 and 2017). In general, differences in aerosol emissions led to Eabs differential behaviors. The summer average of Eabs (1.92 ± 0.55) in 2015 was higher than the winter average (1.27 ± 0.42), while the average (1.11 ± 0.20) in 2017 summer was lower than that (1.67 ± 0.69) in winter. Eabs and RBC (representing the mass ratio of non-refractory constituents to elemental carbon) constraints suggest that Eabs increased with the increase in RBC under the ambient condition enriched by secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), with a maximum growth rate of 70.6% in 2015 summer. However, Eabs demonstrated a negative trend against RBC in 2017 winter due to the more complicated mixing state. The result arose from the opposite impact of hygroscopic SIA and absorbing OC/irregular distributed coatings on amplifying the light absorbency of BC. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed a robust positive correlation (R > 0.9) between aerosol chemical compositions (including sulfate, nitrate, ammonium and secondary organic carbon), which could be significantly perturbed by only a small fraction of absorbing materials or restructuring BC through gaps filling. The above findings not only deepen the understanding of BC, but also provide useful information for the scientific decision-making in government to mitigate particulate pollution and obtain more precise BC radiative forcing.

Short-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone: Source Impacts and Attributable Mortalities

Short-term exposure to particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are important risk factors for human health. Despite the awareness of reducing attributable health burden, region-specific and source-specific strategies remain less explored due to the gap between precursor emissions and health effects. In this study, we isolate the health burden of individual sector sources of PM2.5 and O3 precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), across the globe. Specifically, we estimate mortalities attributable to short-term exposure using machine-learning-based daily exposure estimates and quantify sectoral impacts using chemical transport model simulations. Globally, short-term exposure to PM2.5 and O3 result in 713.5 (95% Confidence Interval: 598.8-843.3) thousand and 496.3 (371.3-646.1) thousand mortalities in 2019, respectively, of which 12.5% are contributed by fuel-related NOx emissions from transportation, energy, and industry. Sectoral impacts from anthropogenic NOx and VOC emissions on health burden vary significantly among seasons and regions, requiring a target shift from transportation in winter to industry in summer for East Asia, for instance. Emission control and health management are additionally complicated by unregulated natural influences during climatic events. Fire-sourced NOx and VOC emissions, respectively, contribute to 8.5 (95% CI: 6.2-11.7) thousand and 4.8 (3.6-5.9) thousand PM2.5 and O3 mortalities, particularly for tropics with high vulnerability to climate change. Additionally, biogenic VOC emissions during heatwaves contribute to 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) thousand O3-introduced mortalities, posing challenges in urban planning for high-income regions, where biogenic contributions to health burden during heatwaves are 13% of anthropogenic contributions annually. Our study provides important implications for temporally dynamic and sector-targeted emission control and health management strategies, which are of urgency under the projection of continuously increasing energy consumption and changing climate.

Associations of Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Constituents With Cardiovascular Diseases and Underlying Metabolic Mediations: A Prospective Population-Based Cohort in Southwest China

BACKGROUND

The health effects of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) might differ depending on compositional variations. Little is known about the joint effect of PM2.5 constituents on metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aims to evaluate the combined associations of PM2.5 components with CVD, identify the most detrimental constituent, and further quantify the mediation effect of metabolic syndrome.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 14 427 adults were included in a cohort study in Sichuan, China, and were followed to obtain the diagnosis of CVD until 2021. Metabolic syndrome was defined by the simultaneous occurrence of multiple metabolic disorders measured at baseline. The concentrations of PM2.5 chemical constituents within a 1-km2 grid were derived based on satellite- and ground-based detection methods. Cox proportional hazard models showed that black carbon, organic matter (OM), nitrate, ammonium, chloride, and sulfate were positively associated with CVD risks, with hazard ratios (HRs) ranging from 1.24 to 2.11 (all P<0.05). Quantile g-computation showed positive associations with 4 types of CVD risks (HRs ranging from 1.48 to 2.25, all P<0.05). OM and chloride had maximum weights for CVD risks. Causal mediation analysis showed that the positive association of OM with total CVD was mediated by metabolic syndrome, with a mediation proportion of 1.3% (all P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 chemical constituents is positively associated with CVD risks. OM and chloride appear to play the most responsible role in the positive associations between PM2.5 and CVD. OM is probably associated with CVD through metabolic-related pathways.

Ambient fine particulate matter constituents and semen quality among adult men in China

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was associated with decreased semen quality, but the relationship between PM2.5 constituents and semen quality was unclear. We recruited 27,824 adult men attending an infertility clinic in Wuhan, China, between 2014 and 2020. We used a four-dimensional spatiotemporal deep forest model to estimate concentrations of PM2.5 mass and its chemical constituents, including organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), and chloride (Cl-). We employed linear regression models to estimate the association between PM2.5 mass and its constituents with various sperm parameters. Exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a reduction in sperm quality, with a percent change of - 5.69% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -8.53%, -2.85%) for sperm density, - 15.09% (95% CI: -22.24%, -7.94%) for sperm total count, - 1.63% (95% CI: -2.36%, -0.91%) for sperm progressive motility, and - 2.30% (95% CI: -3.04%, -1.55%) for sperm total motility. Among specific constituents, exposure to OM, BC, Cl-, or NO3- was associated with a reduction in these four semen quality parameters. The association was more pronounced among older men or individuals with lower levels of education. Our findings suggest that PM2.5 mass and each constituent were associated with decreased semen quality in adult men.

Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter constituents and mortality from total and site-specific gastrointestinal cancer

BACKGROUND

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure has been associated with an increased risk of gastrointestinal cancer mortality, but the attributable constituents remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association of long-term exposure to PM2.5 constituents with total and site-specific gastrointestinal cancer mortality using a difference-in-differences approach in Jiangsu province, China during 2015-2020.

METHODS

We split Jiangsu into 53 spatial units and computed their yearly death number of total gastrointestinal, esophagus, stomach, colorectum, liver, and pancreas cancer. Utilizing a high-quality grid dataset on PM2.5 constituents, we estimated 10-year population-weighted exposure to black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and chloride in each spatial unit. The effect of constituents on gastrointestinal cancer mortality was assessed by controlling time trends, spatial differences, gross domestic product (GDP), and seasonal temperatures.

RESULTS

Overall, 524,019 gastrointestinal cancer deaths were ascertained in 84.77 million population. Each interquartile range increment of BC (0.46 μg/m3), OC (4.56 μg/m3), and nitrate (1.41 μg/m3) was significantly associated with a 27%, 26%, and 34% increased risk of total gastrointestinal cancer mortality, respectively, and these associations remained significant in PM2.5-adjusted models and constituent-residual models. We also identified robust associations of BC, OC, and nitrate exposures with site-specific gastrointestinal cancer mortality. The mortality risk generally displayed increased trends across the total exposure range and rose steeper at higher levels. We did not identify robust associations for sulfate, ammonium, or chlorine exposure. Higher mortality risk ascribed to constituent exposures was identified in total gastrointestinal and liver cancer among women, stomach cancer among men, and total gastrointestinal and stomach cancer among low-GDP regions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers consistent evidence that long-term exposure to PM2.5-bound BC, OC, and nitrate is associated with total and site-specific gastrointestinal cancer mortality, indicating that these constituents need to be controlled to mitigate the adverse effect of PM2.5 on gastrointestinal cancer mortality.