The promise of a model-based psychiatry: building computational models of mental ill health

A probabilistic model of relapse in drug addiction

More than 60% of individuals recovering from substance use disorder relapse within one year. Some will resume drug consumption even after decades of abstinence. The cognitive and psychological mechanisms that lead to relapse are not completely understood, but stressful life experiences and external stimuli that are associated with past drug-taking are known to play a primary role. Stressors and cues elicit memories of drug-induced euphoria and the expectation of relief from current anxiety, igniting an intense craving to use again; positive experiences and supportive environments may mitigate relapse. We present a mathematical model of relapse in drug addiction that draws on known psychiatric concepts such as the "positive activation; negative activation" paradigm and the "peak-end" rule to construct a relapse rate that depends on external factors (intensity and timing of life events) and individual traits (mental responses to these events). We analyze which combinations and ordering of stressors, cues, and positive events lead to the largest relapse probability and propose interventions to minimize the likelihood of relapse. We find that the best protective factor is exposure to a mild, yet continuous, source of contentment, rather than large, episodic jolts of happiness.

Explainable multimodal prediction of treatment-resistance in patients with depression leveraging brain morphometry and natural language processing

Although 20 % of patients with depression receiving treatment do not achieve remission, predicting treatment-resistant depression (TRD) remains challenging. In this study, we aimed to develop an explainable multimodal prediction model for TRD using structured electronic medical record data, brain morphometry, and natural language processing. In total, 247 patients with a new depressive episode were included. TRD-predictive models were developed based on the combination of following parameters: selected tabular dataset features, independent components-map weightings from brain T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and topic probabilities from clinical notes. All models applied the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm via five-fold cross-validation. The model using all data sources showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.794, followed by models that used combined brain MRI and structured data, brain MRI and clinical notes, clinical notes and structured data, brain MRI only, structured data only, and clinical notes only (0.770, 0.762, 0.728, 0.703, 0.684, and 0.569, respectively). Classifications of TRD were driven by several predictors, such as previous exposure to antidepressants and antihypertensive medications, sensorimotor network, default mode network, and somatic symptoms. Our findings suggest that a combination of clinical data with neuroimaging and natural language processing variables improves the prediction of TRD.

Using Electronic Health Records to Facilitate Precision Psychiatry

The use of clinical prediction models to produce individualized risk estimates can facilitate the implementation of precision psychiatry. As a source of data from large, clinically representative patient samples, electronic health records (EHRs) provide a platform to develop and validate clinical prediction models, as well as potentially implement them in routine clinical care. The current review describes promising use cases for the application of precision psychiatry to EHR data and considers their performance in terms of discrimination (ability to separate individuals with and without the outcome) and calibration (extent to which predicted risk estimates correspond to observed outcomes), as well as their potential clinical utility (weighing benefits and costs associated with the model compared to different approaches across different assumptions of the number needed to test). We review 4 externally validated clinical prediction models designed to predict psychosis onset, psychotic relapse, cardiometabolic morbidity, and suicide risk. We then discuss the prospects for clinically implementing these models and the potential added value of integrating data from evidence syntheses, standardized psychometric assessments, and biological data into EHRs. Clinical prediction models can utilize routinely collected EHR data in an innovative way, representing a unique opportunity to inform real-world clinical decision making. Combining data from other sources (e.g., meta-analyses) or enhancing EHR data with information from research studies (clinical and biomarker data) may enhance our abilities to improve the performance of clinical prediction models.

The Shortfalls of Mental Health Compartment Models: A Call to Improve Mental Health Investment Cases in Developing Countries

OBJECTIVES

There are irregularities in investment cases generated by the Mental Health Compartment Model. We discuss these irregularities and highlight the costing techniques that may be introduced to improve mental health investment cases.

METHODS

This analysis uses data from the World Bank, the World Health Organization Mental Health Compartment Model, the United Nations Development Program, the Kenya Ministry of Health, and Statistics from the Kenyan National Commission of Human Rights.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that the Mental Health Compartment Model produces irrelevant outcomes that are not helpful for clinical settings. The model inflated the productivity gains generated from mental health investment. In some cases, the model underestimated the economic costs of mental health. Such limitation renders the investment cases poor in providing valuable intervention points from the perspectives of both the users and the providers.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need for further calibration and validation of the investment case outcomes. The current estimated results cannot be used to guide service provision, research, and mental health programming comprehensively.

Using Conversational AI to Facilitate Mental Health Assessments and Improve Clinical Efficiency Within Psychotherapy Services: Real-World Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Most mental health care providers face the challenge of increased demand for psychotherapy in the absence of increased funding or staffing. To overcome this supply-demand imbalance, care providers must increase the efficiency of service delivery.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we examined whether artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled digital solutions can help mental health care practitioners to use their time more efficiently, and thus reduce strain on services and improve patient outcomes.

METHODS

In this study, we focused on the use of an AI solution (Limbic Access) to support initial patient referral and clinical assessment within the UK's National Health Service. Data were collected from 9 Talking Therapies services across England, comprising 64,862 patients.

RESULTS

We showed that the use of this AI solution improves clinical efficiency by reducing the time clinicians spend on mental health assessments. Furthermore, we found improved outcomes for patients using the AI solution in several key metrics, such as reduced wait times, reduced dropout rates, improved allocation to appropriate treatment pathways, and, most importantly, improved recovery rates. When investigating the mechanism by which the AI solution achieved these improvements, we found that the provision of clinically relevant information ahead of clinical assessment was critical for these observed effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results emphasize the utility of using AI solutions to support the mental health workforce, further highlighting the potential of AI solutions to increase the efficiency of care delivery and improve clinical outcomes for patients.

Artificial intelligence in psychiatry research, diagnosis, and therapy

Psychiatric disorders are now responsible for the largest proportion of the global burden of disease, and even more challenges have been seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Artificial intelligence (AI) is commonly used to facilitate the early detection of disease, understand disease progression, and discover new treatments in the fields of both physical and mental health. The present review provides a broad overview of AI methodology and its applications in data acquisition and processing, feature extraction and characterization, psychiatric disorder classification, potential biomarker detection, real-time monitoring, and interventions in psychiatric disorders. We also comprehensively summarize AI applications with regard to the early warning, diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of specific psychiatric disorders, including depression, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, addiction, sleep disorders, and Alzheimer's disease. The advantages and disadvantages of AI in psychiatry are clarified. We foresee a new wave of research opportunities to facilitate and improve AI technology and its long-term implications in psychiatry during and after the COVID-19 era.

Understanding Mental Health Clinicians' Perceptions and Concerns Regarding Using Passive Patient-Generated Health Data for Clinical Decision-Making: Qualitative Semistructured Interview Study

BACKGROUND

Digital health-tracking tools are changing mental health care by giving patients the ability to collect passively measured patient-generated health data (PGHD; ie, data collected from connected devices with little to no patient effort). Although there are existing clinical guidelines for how mental health clinicians should use more traditional, active forms of PGHD for clinical decision-making, there is less clarity on how passive PGHD can be used.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a qualitative study to understand mental health clinicians' perceptions and concerns regarding the use of technology-enabled, passively collected PGHD for clinical decision-making. Our interviews sought to understand participants' current experiences with and visions for using passive PGHD.

METHODS

Mental health clinicians providing outpatient services were recruited to participate in semistructured interviews. Interview recordings were deidentified, transcribed, and qualitatively coded to identify overarching themes.

RESULTS

Overall, 12 mental health clinicians (n=11, 92% psychiatrists and n=1, 8% clinical psychologist) were interviewed. We identified 4 overarching themes. First, passive PGHD are patient driven-we found that current passive PGHD use was patient driven, not clinician driven; participating clinicians only considered passive PGHD for clinical decision-making when patients brought passive data to clinical encounters. The second theme was active versus passive data as subjective versus objective data-participants viewed the contrast between active and passive PGHD as a contrast between interpretive data on patients' mental health and objective information on behavior. Participants believed that prioritizing passive over self-reported, active PGHD would reduce opportunities for patients to reflect upon their mental health, reducing treatment engagement and raising questions about how passive data can best complement active data for clinical decision-making. Third, passive PGHD must be delivered at appropriate times for action-participants were concerned with the real-time nature of passive PGHD; they believed that it would be infeasible to use passive PGHD for real-time patient monitoring outside clinical encounters and more feasible to use passive PGHD during clinical encounters when clinicians can make treatment decisions. The fourth theme was protecting patient privacy-participating clinicians wanted to protect patient privacy within passive PGHD-sharing programs and discussed opportunities to refine data sharing consent to improve transparency surrounding passive PGHD collection and use.

CONCLUSIONS

Although passive PGHD has the potential to enable more contextualized measurement, this study highlights the need for building and disseminating an evidence base describing how and when passive measures should be used for clinical decision-making. This evidence base should clarify how to use passive data alongside more traditional forms of active PGHD, when clinicians should view passive PGHD to make treatment decisions, and how to protect patient privacy within passive data-sharing programs. Clear evidence would more effectively support the uptake and effective use of these novel tools for both patients and their clinicians.

Towards a neurocomputational account of social controllability: From models to mental health

Controllability, or the influence one has over their surroundings, is crucial for decision-making and mental health. Traditionally, controllability is operationalized in sensorimotor terms as one's ability to exercise their actions to achieve an intended outcome (also termed "agency"). However, recent social neuroscience research suggests that humans also assess if and how they can exert influence over other people (i.e., their actions, outcomes, beliefs) to achieve desired outcomes ("social controllability"). In this review, we will synthesize empirical findings and neurocomputational frameworks related to social controllability. We first introduce the concepts of contextual and perceived controllability and their respective relevance for decision-making. Then, we outline neurocomputational frameworks that can be used to model social controllability, with a focus on behavioral economic paradigms and reinforcement learning approaches. Finally, we discuss the implications of social controllability for computational psychiatry research, using delusion and obsession-compulsion as examples. Taken together, we propose that social controllability could be a key area of investigation in future social neuroscience and computational psychiatry research.

Individual differences in computational psychiatry: a review of current challenges

Bringing precision to the understanding and treatment of mental disorders requires instruments for studying clinically relevant individual differences. One promising approach is the development of computational assays: integrating computational models with cognitive tasks to infer latent patient-specific disease processes in brain computations. While recent years have seen many methodological advancements in computational modelling and many cross-sectional patient studies, much less attention has been paid to basic psychometric properties (reliability and construct validity) of the computational measures provided by the assays. In this review, we assess the extent of this issue by examining emerging empirical evidence. We find that many computational measures suffer from poor psychometric properties, which poses a risk of invalidating previous findings and undermining ongoing research efforts using computational assays to study individual (and even group) differences. We provide recommendations for how to address these problems and, crucially, embed them within a broader perspective on key developments that are needed for translating computational assays to clinical practice.

Remembering Paul E. Meehl: Historical Contributions to Predictive Modeling in Human Behavior

ABSTRACT

This article briefly examines the life and work of the late clinical psychologist and philosopher of science Paul E. Meehl. His thesis in Clinical versus Statistical Prediction (1954) that the data combination performed by mechanical operations, as compared to clinicians, achieves higher accuracy in predicting human behavior is one of the earliest theoretical works that laid the groundwork for utilizing statistics and computational modeling in research in psychiatry and clinical psychology. For today's psychiatric researchers and clinicians grappling with the challenges of translating the ever-increasing data of the human mind into practice tools, Meehl's advocacy for both accurate modeling of the data and their clinically relevant use is timely.

Understanding mental health through computers: An introduction to computational psychiatry

Computational psychiatry recently established itself as a new tool in the study of mental disorders and problems. Integration of different levels of analysis is creating computational phenotypes with clinical and research values, and constructing a way to arrive at precision psychiatry are part of this new branch. It conceptualizes the brain as a computational organ that receives from the environment parameters to respond to challenges through calculations and algorithms in continuous feedback and feedforward loops with a permanent degree of uncertainty. Through this conception, one can seize an understanding of the cerebral and mental processes in the form of theories or hypotheses based on data. Using these approximations, a better understanding of the disorder and its different determinant factors facilitates the diagnostics and treatment by having an individual, ecologic, and holistic approach. It is a tool that can be used to homologate and integrate multiple sources of information given by several theoretical models. In conclusion, it helps psychiatry achieve precision and reproducibility, which can help the mental health field achieve significant advancement. This article is a narrative review of the basis of the functioning of computational psychiatry with a critical analysis of its concepts.