Public Health Threats in Mass Gatherings: A Systematic Review

Syndromic surveillance during 2022 Uganda Martyrs' commemoration

Mass gatherings frequently include close, prolonged interactions between people, which presents opportunities for infectious disease transmission. Over 20,000 pilgrims gathered at Namugongo Catholic and Protestant shrines to commemorate 2022 Uganda Martyr's Day. We described syndromes suggestive of key priority diseases particularly COVID-19 and viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) among visiting pilgrims during May 25-June 5, 2022. We conducted a survey among pilgrims at the catholic and protestant shrines based on signs and symptoms for key priority diseases: COVID-19 and VHF. A suspected COVID-19 case was defined as acute respiratory illness (temperature greater 37.5°C and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory infection such as cough or shortness of breath) whereas a suspected VHF case was defined as fever >37.5°C and unexplained bleeding among pilgrims who visited Namugongo Catholic and Protestant shrines from May 25 to June 5, 2022. Pilgrims were sampled systematically at entrances and demarcated zonal areas to participate in the survey. Additionally, we extracted secondary data on pilgrims who sought emergency medical services from Health Management Information System registers. Descriptive analysis was conducted to identify syndromes suggestive of key priority diseases. Among 1,350 pilgrims interviewed, 767 (57%) were female. The mean age was 37.9 (±17.9) years. Nearly all pilgrims 1,331 (98.6%) were Ugandans. A total of 236 (18%) reported ≥1 case definition symptom and 42 (3%) reported ≥2 symptoms. Thirty-nine (2.9%) were suspected COVID-19 cases and three (0.2%) were suspected VHF cases from different regions of Uganda. Among 5,582 pilgrims who sought medical care from tents, 628 (11.3%) had suspected COVID-19 and one had suspected VHF. Almost one in fifty pilgrims at the 2022 Uganda Martyrs' commemoration had at least one symptom of COVID-19 or VHF. Intensified syndromic surveillance and planned laboratory testing capacity at mass gatherings is important for early detection of public health emergencies that could stem from such events.

Syndromic surveillance system during mass gathering of Panchkroshi Yatra festival, Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh, India

Background

The health implications surrounding a mass gathering pose significant challenges to public health officials. The use of syndromic surveillance provides an ideal method for achieving the public health goals and objectives at such events. In the absence of published reports of systematic documentation of public health preparedness in mass gatherings in the local context, we describe the public health preparedness and demonstrate the operational feasibility of a tablet-based participatory syndromic surveillance among pilgrims during the annual ritual circumambulation- Panchkroshi Yatra.

Methods

A real-time surveillance system was established from 2017-2019 to capture all the health consultations done at the designated points (medical camps) in the Panchkroshi yatra area of the city Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh. We also surveyed a subset of pilgrims in 2017 to gauge satisfaction with the public health measures such as sanitation, water, safety, food, and cleanliness.

Results

In 2019, injuries were reported in the highest proportion (16.7%; 794/4744); most numbers of fever cases (10.6%; 598/5600) were reported in 2018, while 2017 saw the highest number of patient presentations of abdominal pain (7.73%; 498/6435).

Conclusion

Public health and safety measures were satisfactory except for the need for setting up urinals along the fixed route of the circumambulation. A systematic data collection of selected symptoms among yatris and their surveillance through tablet could be established during the panchkroshi yatra, which can complement the existing surveillance for detecting early warning signals. We recommend the implementation of such tablet-based surveillance during such mass gathering events.

MEDICAL PLANNING FOR MASS GATHERING SPORTS EVENTS IN BRAZIL

ABSTRACT Introduction: Medical planning for mass gathering events is founded on the structuring of assistance to the population involved and the preservation of the response capacities of the local healthcare system. Large sporting events attended by crowds are increasingly common in society. These events have been shown to be dangerous, generating higher incidences of injuries and illnesses than usual. Thus, planning and the interaction among various public and private sectors are required for the prevention of and response to emergencies and incidents involving multiple victims. Methods: Recently published studies on medical planning for large sports events and current federal agency legislation were selected to conduct an updated review on the subject. Results: After reading titles and abstracts, 159 papers were chosen for a full reading, 50 of which met the eligibility criteria and were included as the basis for this review. The size of the audience, the weather, and the behavior of the crowd seem to contribute significantly to the estimated need for resources in sporting events. Conclusion: Mass events require planning for prevention and to strengthen the resilience of host communities. There is a still a lack of evidence that these events increase the risk of the mass spreading of disease. Level of Evidence: V; Expert opinion .

Risk Assessment of Arbaeen Mass Gathering in the Covid-19 Pandemic

Introduction

Arbaeen is a religious ceremony held annually with the participation of a large number of pilgrims. During the pandemic of Covid-19, a mass gathering of Arbaeen pilgrims can strengthen the transmission of this disease and put more pressure on the health care system of countries. The aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of Arbaeen ceremony in the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021.

Materials and methods

A mixed method was performed to perform the study using qualitative and quantitative methods. A national risk assessment tool was used that consisted of hazard identification and assessment, scenario development, exposure assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk estimation. The national risk assessment tool was completed through a focused group discussion and the opinions of 20 representatives of the health system and the level of risks were estimated. Data were collected, analyzed, and integrated by the research team.

Results

Based on the results of risk matrix analysis, factors such as the increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19, the probability of exposure to a new variant of COVID-19, the probability of arrival of a new variant of COVID-19 to the country, the probability of increasing referrals to healthcare facilities (score 16), the probability of getting respiratory diseases, and the environmental contamination (score 12) occupied the red area of the matrix and were found to have the highest risk (unbearable risk), that needs immediate action.

Conclusion

Preparing for a mass gathering such as Arbaeen is very important in order to reduce the risk of communicable disease, and the first step in improving preparedness is risk assessment and its continuity in the various stages of the ceremony. Therefore, policy makers and planners of such events should conduct risk assessments with the participation of local and national public health authorities regularly.

UEFA Euro 2020: lessons from the first multi-city international mass gathering during the COVID-19 pandemic

Mass gatherings (MG) present a number of challenges to public health authorities and governments across the world with sporting events, tournaments, music festivals, religious gatherings and all other MG having historically posed a risk to the spread and amplification of a range of infectious diseases. Transmission of gastrointestinal, respiratory, waterborne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases pose a particular risk: all have been linked to MG events [-]. Infection risk often depends on the nature of the mass gathering, and on the profile and behaviour of its participants. The interaction between environmental, psychological, biological and social factors plays a vital part. The risk of outbreaks particularly as a result of respiratory transmission remains high at MG, with the majority of outbreaks over the last two decades resulting from a variety of respiratory and vaccine preventable pathogens [-]. Concerns about the spread of infectious diseases at MG are often focussed on crowding, lack of sanitation and the mixing of population groups from different places. Sporting events, which have in recent decades become more complex and international in nature, pose a challenge to the control of communicable disease transmission []. Despite this, large scale outbreaks at sporting events have been rare in recent decades, particularly since the rise of more robust public health planning, prevention, risk assessment and improved health infrastructures in host countries [].

Mass gathering events and the spread of infectious diseases: Evidence from the early growth phase of COVID-19

This paper studies the impact on reported coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths in Spain resulting from large mass gatherings that occurred from March 6 to March 8, 2020. To study these outcomes, the geographic differences in the planned pre-pandemic major events that took place on these dates were exploited, which is a quasi-random source of variation for identification purposes. We collected daily and detailed information about the number of attendees at football (soccer) and basketball matches in addition to individuals participating in the Women's Day marches across Spain, which we merged with daily data on reported COVID-19 cases and deaths at the provincial level. Our results reveal evidence of non-negligible COVID-19 cases related to the differences in the percentage of attendees at these major events from March 6 to March 8. In a typical province, approximately 31% of the average daily reported COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants between mid-March and early April 2020 can be explained by the participation rate in those major events. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that this implies almost five million euros (169,000 euros/day) of additional economic cost in the health system of a typical province with one million inhabitants in the period under consideration. Several mechanisms behind the spread of COVID-19 are also examined.

Social identity processes associated with perceived risk at pilot sporting events during COVID‐19

Previous research suggests that shared social identification and expected support from others can reduce the extent to which attendees of mass events perceive that others pose health risks. This study evaluated the social identity processes associated with perceived risk at UK pilot sporting events held during COVID‐19, including the government Events Research Programme. An online survey (N = 2029) measured attendee perceptions that other spectators adhered to safety measures, shared social identity with other attendees, expectations that others would provide support, and the perceived risk of germ spread from other attendees. Results indicate that for football attendees, seeing others adhering to COVID‐19 safety measures was associated with lower perceived risk and this was partially mediated via increased shared social identity and expected support. However, the sequential mediations were non‐significant for rugby and horse racing events. The decreased perceived risk for football and rugby attendees highlights the importance of understanding social identity processes at mass events to increase safety. The non‐significant associations between shared social identity and perceived risk and between expected support and perceived risk for both the rugby and the horse racing highlights the need to further research risk perceptions across a range of mass event contexts.

Conducting mass gathering events during the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study of Kumbh Mela 2021 as a potential 'super spreader event'

BACKGROUND

With the emergence of novel pathogens, there is a worldwide debate on the cancellation or conduction of mass gathering events.

METHODS

In the current coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic situation, this study assesses the challenges in the conduction of the recently held Kumbh Mela mass gathering (MG), which took place from 14th January 2021 to 29th April 2021 at Haridwar, the capital city of the state of Uttarakhand, India. The correlation between increased cases of COVID-19 and the Kumbh Mela MG has been highlighted through statistical analysis and growth curves using the available data.

RESULTS

The Kumbh Mela-2021 emerged as a potential super spreader event with an increase of 37 cases per day to 144 cases per day (276%) in the COVID-19 cases in Haridwar. An increase from 138 to 480 cases per day (236%) and from 45 600 to 92 754 cases per day (92%) was noted in Uttarakhand and India respectively during this MG. A very strong correlation of 'more than 0.99' was seen between the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Uttarakhand and Haridwar, and Haridwar and India during the Kumbh Mela in the third wave of the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The direct influence of Kumbh Mela on the increase in the overall number of COVID-19 cases is observed. Although, the socio-cultural, psychological and economical advantages of MGs are considerable in a developing nation like India, but organization of such events can be a huge health hazard. The lack of efficient implementation and observance of COVID-19 guidelines elevates the necessity of cancellation of such MGs to prevent the outbreak of diseases. Thus, a well-conducted risk assessment prior to the hosting of a MG event during a pandemic is required with strict application of precautionary measures towards prevention of super-spreader events.

Validation of a Belgian Prediction Model for Patient Encounters at Football Mass Gatherings

BACKGROUND

To validate the Belgian Plan Risk Manifestations (PRIMA) model, actual patient presentation rates (PPRs) from Belgium's largest football stadium were compared with predictions provided by existing models and the Belgian PRIMA model.

METHODS

Actual patient presentations gathered from 41 football games (2010-2019) played at the King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels, Belgium) were compared with predictions by existing models and the PRIMA model. All attendees who sought medical help from in-event health services (IEHS) in the stadium or called 1-1-2 within the closed perimeter around the stadium were included. Data were analyzed by ANOVA, Pearson correlation tests, and Wilcoxon singed-rank test.

RESULTS

A total of 1,630,549 people attended the matches, with 626 people needing first aid. Both the PRIMA and the Hartman model over-estimated the number of patient encounters for each occasion. The Arbon model under-estimated patient encounters for 9.75% (95% CI, 0.49-19.01) of the events. When comparing deviations in predictions between the PRIMA model to the other models, there was a significant difference in the mean deviation (Arbon: Z = -5.566, P <.001, r = -.61; Hartman: Z = -4.245, P <.001, r = .47).

CONCLUSION

When comparing the predicted patient encounters, only the Arbon model under-predicted patient presentations, but the Hartman and the PRIMA models consistently over-predicted. Because of continuous over-prediction, the PRIMA model showed significant differences in mean deviation of predicted PPR. The results of this study suggest that the PRIMA model can be used during planning for domestic and international football matches played at the King Baudouin Stadium, but more data and further research are needed.

COVID-19 appropriate behavior in India: Time to invest for the benefits in future

The COVID-19 pandemic gave an opportunity to adopt many appropriate changes in the behavior of the people in India. The major gears of those behavior changes were the enforcement by the government, fear, motivation (self and induced), and self-experiences or realizations with time. If those changes are fitted in the Trans-Theoretical Model, Indian people have passed through the “Pre-Contemplation” to “Action” stage of behavior changes during different phases of this pandemic. Frequent hand hygiene, maintaining physical distancing, use of face mask, cough etiquettes, avoid greetings through physical contacts, fear in spitting and urination at public places, refrain from gatherings and avoiding outside food are some of the examples of those appropriate behaviors which were enforced or learnt during the COVID pandemic. The continuous lockdown made people understand the difference between “want” and “need,” the importance of local production, and the significance of social media and technology in routine life. The work-from-home strategy gave a chance to appreciate the work--life balance in a more applied way. The first-ever lifetime experience of unbelievable rejuvenating nature because of lack of human play taught people to appreciate nature. Although the current focus is on responding to the pandemic and on coping with its immediate effects, yet this is the time when there is an urgent need to create an enabling environment to support and sustain these COVID-19 appropriate behaviors (maintenance stage) to reap the maximum benefits out of them. Sustaining these appropriate behaviors is also important considering the bimodal distribution of the COVID-19 and possibility of advent of the second wave of COVID-19 in near future.