Asynchrony in host and parasite phenology may decrease disease risk in livestock under climate warming: Nematodirus battus in lambs as a case study

Refugia, climatic conditions and farm management factors as drivers of adaptation in Nematodirus battus populations

Parasites are known for their ability to rapidly adapt to changing conditions. For parasitic helminths, changes in climate, along with farming and management practices associated with the intensification of livestock farming, provide novel challenges which can impact on their epidemiology and control. The sustainability of livestock production partially relies on effective control of helminth infection. Therefore, understanding changes in parasite behaviour, and what drives these, is of great importance. Nematodirus battus is an economically important helminth in the UK and temperate regions. Its infective larvae typically overwinter in eggs on pasture and hatch synchronously in spring, causing acute disease in lambs. Attempts to control disease typically rely on whole-flock benzimidazole (BZ) treatments. In recent years, the emergence of BZ-resistance, alongside the hatching of eggs without the classical over-winter 'chill stimulus', have made N. battus more difficult to control. In three previous studies, after collecting a large number of N. battus populations alongside farm management data from commercial farms, we explored the prevalence of genetic mutations associated with BZ-resistance (n = 253 farms), the ability of eggs to hatch with and without a chill stimulus (n = 90 farms) and how farm management practices varied throughout the UK (n = 187 farms). In the present study, we identify factors which may be acting as drivers, or barriers, to either the development of resistance or the variable hatching behaviour of N. battus eggs. Generalised linear mixed effect models were applied to regress experimental hatching and genotyping data on farm management and additional environmental data. Both variable hatching and resistance development appeared associated with the maintenance of parasite refugia as well as grazing management, particularly reseeding of pasture routinely grazed by young lambs each spring and the practice of set-stocked grazing. Effective quarantine measures were identified as the main protective factor for the development of BZ-resistance whereas set stocked grazing and population bottlenecks, resulting from reseeding heavily contaminated pastures, were risk factors. Spring maximum temperature and other climatic factors were associated with 'typical' hatching of eggs following a chill stimulus whilst several management factors were linked with hatching without prior chilling. For example, practices which reduce parasite numbers on pasture (e.g. re-seeding) or restrict availability of hosts (e.g. resting fields), were found to increase the odds of non-chill hatching. Retention of the timing of lambing and infection level of the host within the fitted model indicated that requirement for a chill stimulus prior to hatching may be plastic, perhaps subject to change throughout the grazing season, in response to immune development or parasite density-dependence within the host. Further investigation of the influence of the factors retained within the fitted models, particularly the theme of parasite refugia which was highlighted in relation to both the presence of BZ-resistance alleles and alternative hatching, is required to establish robust, sustainable parasite control and farm management strategies.

Evolution of intermediate latency strategies in seasonal parasites

Traditional mechanistic trade-offs between transmission and parasite latency period length are foundational for nearly all theories on the evolution of parasite life-history strategies. Prior theoretical studies demonstrate that seasonal host activity can generate a trade-off for obligate-host killer parasites that selects for intermediate latency periods in the absence of a mechanistic trade-off between transmission and latency period lengths. Extensions of these studies predict that host seasonal patterns can lead to evolutionary bistability for obligate-host killer parasites in which two evolutionarily stable strategies, a shorter and longer latency period, are possible. Here we demonstrate that these conclusions from previously published studies hold for non-obligate host killer parasites. That is, seasonal host activity can select for intermediate parasite latency periods for non-obligate killer parasites in the absence of a trade-off between transmission and latency period length and can maintain multiple evolutionarily stable parasite life-history strategies. These results reinforce the hypothesis that host seasonal activity can act as a major selective force on parasite life-history evolution by extending the narrower prior theory to encompass a greater range of disease systems.

Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates

Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host-parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.

Parasite-mediated selection on host phenology

The timing of seasonal activity, or phenology, is an adaptive trait that maximizes individual fitness by timing key life events to coincide with favorable abiotic factors and biotic interactions. Studies on the biotic interactions that determine optimal phenology have focused on temporal overlaps among positively-interacting species such as mutualisms. Less well understood is the extent that negative interactions such as parasitism impact the evolution of host phenology. Here, we present a mathematical model demonstrating the evolution of host phenological patterns in response to sterilizing parasites. Environments with parasites favor hosts with shortened activity periods or greater distributions in emergence timing, both of which reduce the temporal overlap between hosts and parasites and thus reduce infection risk. Although host populations with these altered phenological patterns are less likely to mature and reproduce, the fitness advantage of parasite avoidance can be greater than the cost of reduced reproduction. These results illustrate the impact of parasitism on the evolution of host phenology and suggest that shifts in host phenology could serve as a strategy to mitigate the risk of infection.

Exploring the thermal limits of malaria transmission in the western Himalaya

Environmental temperature is a key driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Using detailed temperature records from four sites: low elevation (1800), mid elevation (2200 m), and high elevation (2600-3200 m) in the western Himalaya, we model how temperature regulates parasite development rate (the inverse of the extrinsic incubation period, EIP) in the wild. Using a Briére parametrization of the EIP, combined with Bayesian parameter inference, we study the thermal limits of transmission for avian (Plasmodium relictum) and human Plasmodium parasites (P. vivax and P. falciparum) as well as for two malaria-like avian parasites, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon. We demonstrate that temperature conditions can substantially alter the incubation period of parasites at high elevation sites (2600-3200 m) leading to restricted parasite development or long transmission windows. The thermal limits (optimal temperature) for Plasmodium parasites were 15.62-34.92°C (30.04°C) for P. falciparum, 13.51-34.08°C (29.02°C) for P. vivax, 12.56-34.46°C (29.16°C) for P. relictum and for two malaria-like parasites, 12.01-29.48°C (25.16°C) for Haemoproteus spp. and 11.92-29.95°C (25.51°C) for Leucocytozoon spp. We then compare estimates of EIP based on measures of mean temperature versus hourly temperatures to show that EIP days vary in cold versus warm environments. We found that human Plasmodium parasites experience a limited transmission window at 2600 m. In contrast, for avian Plasmodium transmission was not possible between September and March at 2600 m. In addition, temperature conditions suitable for both Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon transmission were obtained from June to August and in April, at 2600 m. Finally, we use temperature projections from a suite of climate models to predict that by 2040, high elevation sites (~2600 m) will have a temperature range conducive for malaria transmission, albeit with a limited transmission window. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for fine-scale thermal effects in the expansion of the range of the malaria parasite with global climate change.

Host phenology can drive the evolution of intermediate virulence strategies in some obligate-killer parasites

Traditional mechanistic trade-offs between transmission and virulence are the foundation of nearly all theory on parasite virulence evolution. For obligate-host killer parasites, evolution toward intermediate virulence depends on a trade-off between virulence (time to death) and transmission (the number of progeny released upon death). Although several ecological factors impact optimal virulence strategies constrained by trade-offs, these factors have been insufficient to explain the intermediate virulence levels observed in nature. The timing of seasonal activity, or phenology, is a factor that commonly influences ecological interactions but is difficult to incorporate into virulence evolution studies. We present a mathematical model of a seasonal obligate-killer parasite to study the impact of host phenology on virulence evolution. The model demonstrates that host phenology can select for intermediate parasite virulence even when a traditional mechanistic trade-off between transmission and virulence is omitted. The optimal virulence strategy is impacted by both the host activity period duration and the host emergence timing variation. Parasites with lower virulence strategies are favored in environments with longer host activity periods and when hosts emerge synchronously. The results demonstrate that host phenology can be sufficient to select for intermediate virulence strategies, providing an alternative driver of virulence evolution in some natural systems.

Regional heterogeneity and unexpectedly high abundance of Cooperia punctata in beef cattle at a northern latitude revealed by ITS-2 rDNA nemabiome metabarcoding

BACKGROUND

The species composition of cattle gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) communities can vary greatly between regions. Despite this, there is remarkably little large-scale surveillance data for cattle GIN species which is due, at least in part, to a lack of scalable diagnostic tools. This lack of regional GIN species-level data represents a major knowledge gap for evidence-based parasite management and assessing the status and impact of factors such as climate change and anthelmintic drug resistance.

METHODS

This paper presents a large-scale survey of GIN in beef herds across western Canada using ITS-2 rDNA nemabiome metabarcoding. Individual fecal samples were collected from 6 to 20 randomly selected heifers (n = 1665) from each of 85 herds between September 2016 and February 2017 and 10-25 first season calves (n = 824) from each of 42 herds between November 2016 and February 2017.

RESULTS

Gastrointestinal nematode communities in heifers and calves were similar in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with Ostertagia ostertagi and Cooperia oncophora being the predominant GIN species in all herds consistent with previous studies. However, in Manitoba, Cooperia punctata was the predominant species overall and the most abundant GIN species in calves from 4/8 beef herds.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed a marked regional heterogeneity of GIN species in grazing beef herds in western Canada. The predominance of C. punctata in Manitoba is unexpected, as although this parasite is often the predominant cattle GIN species in more southerly latitudes, it is generally only a minor component of cattle GIN communities in northern temperate regions. We hypothesize that the unexpected predominance of C. punctata at such a northerly latitude represents a range expansion, likely associated with changes in climate, anthelmintic use, management, and/or animal movement. Whatever the cause, these results are of practical concern since C. punctata is more pathogenic than C. oncophora, the Cooperia species that typically predominates in cooler temperate regions. Finally, this study illustrates the value of ITS-2 rDNA nemabiome metabarcoding as a surveillance tool for ruminant GIN parasites.

Descriptive analysis of nematode management practices and Nematodirus battus control strategies on UK sheep farms

BACKGROUND

Farm management practices have a major impact on nematode population dynamics. The presented study aimed to understand current nematode management practices on UK sheep farms; with a particular focus on Nematodirus battus because of the changing epidemiology, and emerging anthelmintic resistance observed in this species.

METHODS

A 42 question online survey covering grazing management, farm demographics and parasite control strategies was developed and distributed to the farming community in 2016. Analysis of the 187 completed questionnaires explored regional variations in practices.

RESULTS

Uptake of recommendations was variable, particularly quarantine practices and monitoring tools. Results also highlighted variation in the epidemiology of N. battus; respondents in the north (Scotland, north-west and north-east England) typically reported N. battus in spring with a perception of more severe clinical symptoms than those from the south (Midlands, Wales, south-east and south-west England; p = 0.03). Farms in the south observed greater changes in the timing of disease (p = 0.006) with N. battus being reported throughout the year on some holdings and more frequent use of faecal egg count monitoring (p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

Control of N. battus infection is challenging and 'one-size-fits-all' advice is not applicable; however, the information gathered will enable the development of effective, adaptable control strategies.

Long-term trends in helminth infections of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) from the vicinity of Malham Tarn in North Yorkshire, England

Helminth infections in wood mice (n = 483), trapped over a period of 26 years in the woods surrounding Malham Tarn in North Yorkshire, were analysed. Although 10 species of helminths were identified, the overall mean species richness was 1.01 species/mouse indicating that the helminth community was relatively depauperate in this wood mouse population. The dominant species was Heligmosomoides polygyrus, the prevalence (64.6%) and abundance (10.4 worms/mouse) of which declined significantly over the study period. Because of the dominance of this species, analyses of higher taxa (combined helminths and combined nematodes) also revealed significantly declining values for prevalence, although not abundance. Helminth species richness (HSR) and Brillouin's index of diversity (BID) did not show covariance with year, neither did those remaining species whose overall prevalence exceeded 5% (Syphacia stroma, Aonchotheca murissylvatici and Plagiorchis muris). Significant age effects were detected for the prevalence and abundance of all higher taxa, H. polygyrus and P. muris, and for HSR and BID, reflecting the accumulation of helminths with increasing host age. Only two cases of sex bias were found; male bias in abundance of P. muris and combined Digenea. We discuss the significance of these results and hypothesize about the underlying causes.

Precision worm control in grazing lambs by targeting group treatment based on performance of sentinels

Given the economic impact of gastrointestinal nematode infection on livestock farming worldwide, and increasing anthelmintic resistance, it is imperative to develop practical, efficient and sustainable control strategies. Targeted selective treatment (TST), whereby anthelmintic treatments are administered to animals individually, based on selection criteria such as weight gain, has been shown to successfully maintain animal productivity whilst reducing the selection pressure for anthelmintic resistance and the economic cost of treatment in experimental and commercial settings. Despite the benefits of the TST approach, the equipment and time required to monitor animals individually make this strategy unsuitable for some farming enterprises. The sentinel group approach aims to maintain the benefits observed using TST whilst reducing these requirements. The study involved two experiments, each following a group of 80 lambs through their first grazing season. Anthelmintic treatment of the whole group was determined by monitoring the weight gain of identified sentinel lambs within it every 2 weeks: when 40% of the sentinel lambs failed to reach their weight gain targets, the whole group was treated. The sentinel lambs consisted of 45% of the group (n = 36) in experiment one and 20% (n = 16) in experiment two. A control group of 20 lambs was co-grazed with the main group during both experiments; in experiment one, the sentinel approach was compared with a TST approach, in which control lambs were treated on an individual basis in response to weight gain. In experiment two, the sentinel approach was compared with conventional prophylaxis, where all lambs in the control group were treated at strategic time points throughout the season (= strategic prophylactic treatment). The sentinel lambs were found to be representative of overall group performance regardless of the proportion of sentinels within the group: they recorded similar growth rates and reached weight gain targets simultaneously at each time point and overall. Live-weight gain was also similar between sentinel and control animals in both experiments. The findings of the current study suggest that monitoring sentinel lambs comprising 20% of a group of grazing lambs is sufficient to determine the need for anthelmintic treatment within the whole group, and that this approach maintains production in line with conventional or TST treatment regimes.

Comparing two predictive risk models for nematodirosis in Great Britain

BACKGROUND

Nematodirus battus infection is a major health concern in lambs. Development and hatch of infective larvae on pastures is temperature dependent, making model-based risk forecasting a useful tool for disease control.

METHODS

Air and 30 cm soil temperature-based risk models were used to predict hatch dates using meteorological data from 2019 and compared to infection dates, estimated from the first appearance of N. battus eggs, on 18 sheep farms distributed across Great Britain.

RESULTS

The air temperature model was more accurate in its predictions than the soil temperature model on 12 of the 18 farms, but tended to predict late hatch dates in the early part of the season.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the air temperature model appears the more appropriate choice for predicting N. battus peak hatch in the UK in terms of accuracy and practicality, but some adjustment might be needed to account for microclimatic variations at the soil-air interface.

Understanding how temperature shifts could impact infectious disease

Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. There have been several important advances in understanding the role of climate and climate change on wildlife and human infectious disease dynamics over the past several years. This essay examines 3 major areas of advancement, which include improvements to mechanistic disease models, investigations into the importance of climate variability to disease dynamics, and understanding the consequences of thermal mismatches between host and parasites. Applying the new information derived from these advances to climate-disease models and addressing the pressing knowledge gaps that we identify should improve the capacity to predict how climate change will affect disease risk for both wildlife and humans.

Variation in hatching responses of Nematodirus battus eggs to temperature experiences

BACKGROUND

Nematodirus battus, unlike most other gastrointestinal nematodes, undergoes maturation to an infective larva within the egg. Historically, eggs were considered to require a period of chilling over winter followed by a period of temperature above 10 °C for synchronous hatching to occur (generally in spring). Anecdotal reports of Nematodirus infection out-with spring in veterinary journals and the farming press suggest that the concentrated pasture abundance of N. battus infective larvae may be changing. In order for control practices to be adapted, and unexpected disease outbreaks to be avoided, it is important to quantify how parasite epidemiology is changing and research the drivers behind it.

METHOD

The present study investigated the in vitro hatching response to temperature experiences (with and without a period of chilling) for egg samples of 90 N. battus populations obtained from 73 commercial sheep farms. Six aliquots of larvated eggs were prepared per population, three aliquots were placed at 4 °C for 6  weeks to provide a chill stimulus then incubated at the optimal hatching temperature for the species. The remaining three aliquots of eggs were incubated at the hatching temperature without a prior chill stimulus and the number of hatched larvae was compared between treatments.

RESULTS

Median hatch rate across all populations with chilling was 45% (95% CI: 42-48%) and without chilling was 4% (95% CI: 2-6%). Inter-population variation in hatching ranged from 0 to 87% of eggs able to hatch in the absence of a chill stimulus, mean non-chill hatching was 13 ± 2% of eggs (mean ± SE). Non-chill hatching rates were greater than chilled hatching rates in seven of the 90 populations tested.

CONCLUSIONS

Clearly, the variation in hatching responses to temperature experience is very large and therefore the seasonality of the parasite may vary not only between regions but also at farm level. In contrast to what previous work has suggested, there was a geographical trend towards higher non-chill hatching in the Northern parts of the UK.

Pulse Heat Stress and Parasitism in a Warming World

Infectious disease outbreaks emerged across the globe during the recent 2015-2016 El Niño event, re-igniting research interest in how climate events influence disease dynamics. While the relationship between long-term warming and the transmission of disease-causing parasites has received substantial attention, we do not yet know how pulse heat events - common phenomena in a warming world - will alter parasite transmission. The effects of pulse warming on ecological and evolutionary processes are complex and context dependent, motivating research to understand how climate oscillations drive host health and disease. Here, we develop a framework for evaluating and predicting the effects of pulse warming on parasitic infection. Specifically, we synthesize how pulse heat stress affects hosts, parasites, and the ecological interactions between them.

What Modeling Parasites, Transmission, and Resistance Can Teach Us

Veterinarians and farmers must contend with the development of drug resistance and climate variability, which threaten the sustainability of current parasite control practices. Field trials evaluating competing strategies for controlling parasites while simultaneously slowing the development of resistance are time consuming and expensive. In contrast, modelling studies can rapidly explore a wide range of scenarios and have generated an array of decision support tools for veterinarians and farmers such as real-time weather-dependent infection risk alerts. Models have also been valuable for predicting the development of anthelmintic resistance, evaluating the sustainability of current parasite control practices and promoting the responsible use of novel anthelmintics.

Phenological synchrony shapes pathology in host-parasite systems

A key challenge surrounding ongoing climate shifts is to identify how they alter species interactions, including those between hosts and parasites. Because transmission often occurs during critical time windows, shifts in the phenology of either taxa can alter the likelihood of interaction or the resulting pathology. We quantified how phenological synchrony between vulnerable stages of an amphibian host (Pseudacris regilla) and infection by a pathogenic trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae) determined infection prevalence, parasite load and host pathology. By tracking hosts and parasite infection throughout development between low- and high-elevation regions (San Francisco Bay Area and the Southern Cascades (Mt Lassen)), we found that when phenological synchrony was high (Bay Area), each established parasite incurred a 33% higher probability of causing severe limb malformations relative to areas with less synchrony (Mt Lassen). As a result, hosts in the Bay Area had up to a 50% higher risk of pathology even while controlling for the mean infection load. Our results indicate that host-parasite interactions and the resulting pathology were the joint product of infection load and phenological synchrony, highlighting the sensitivity of disease outcomes to forecasted shifts in climate.

Characterizing ecosystem phenological diversity and its macroecology with snow cover phenology

One critical challenge of exploring flora phenology is on characterizing ecosystem phenological diversity (EPD), and thus how EPD’s performance is influenced by climate changes has also been an open macro-ecological question. To fill these two gaps, we proposed an innovative method for reflecting EPD, by taking the advantage of the often-classified inverse factor of spatial resolution discrepancy between the used remote sensing datasets of vegetation phenological dates (green-up and brown-up) and snow cover phenological dates (SPDs) (onset and end) around the Arctic, and further, we examined the cross response/feedbacks of the two kinds of EPDs to the two categories of SPDs. We found that the circumpolar green-up and brown-up EPDs both were shrinking, driven more by the delaying of the onset SPDs than the advancing of the end SPDs; North America and North Eurasia performed with inconsistent EPD response/feedbacks to the related SPD anomalies; and further, the EPD-SPD response/feedbacks in some locations exhibited the time-lag effect, e.g., the green-up EPDs made the strongest response to the onset SPDs of two years earlier. Overall, the validated method and the new findings are of implications for improving the phenology modules in Earth system models, and the contributions of the present study have enlightening significance for kicking off the new EPD branch in macrosystem phenological ecology.

Reduced egg shedding in nematode-resistant ewes and projected epidemiological benefits under climate change

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Exlana breed ewes were monitored for gastrointestinal nematodes during the peri-parturient period.

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Ewes selected for resistance when lambs produced fewer eggs as adults.

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There was no observed reproductive cost to resistance.

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Simulations predict that lambs of resistant ewes are exposed to reduced infection pressure.

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Nematode resistance in the female line could help mitigate the impact of climate change on infection pressure.

Global livestock production is facing serious new challenges, including climate-driven changes in parasite epidemiology, and anthelmintic resistance, driving a need for non-chemotherapeutic methods of parasite control. Selecting for genetic resistance to gastrointestinal nematode infection could reduce reliance on chemical intervention and mitigate increases in parasite challenge due to climate change. Ewes of the composite Exlana breed with a range of estimated breeding values (EBVs) based on nematode faecal egg counts (FECs) were monitored during the peri-parturient period on two farms in southwestern England. Ewes with low EBVs (“resistant”) had lower FECs during the peri-parturient period than those with high EBVs (“susceptible”): the mean FEC was reduced by 23% and 34% on Farms 1 and 2, respectively, while the peak FEC was reduced by 30% and 37%, respectively. Neither EBV nor FEC were correlated with key performance indicators (estimated milk yield, measured indirectly using 8 week lamb weight, and ewe weight loss during lactation). Simulations predict that the reduced FECs of resistant ewes would result in a comparable reduction in infection pressure (arising from eggs shed by ewes) for their lambs. Furthermore, although the reduced FECs observed were modest, simulations predicted that selecting for nematode resistance in ewes could largely offset predicted future climate-driven increases in pasture infectivity arising from eggs contributed by these ewes. Selective breeding of the maternal line for nematode resistance therefore has potential epidemiological benefits by reducing pasture infectivity early in the grazing season and alleviating the need for anthelmintic treatment of ewes during the peri-parturient period, thus reducing selection pressure for anthelmintic resistance. These benefits are magnified under predicted future climate change. The maternal line warrants more attention in selective breeding programmes for nematode resistance.

100 Questions in Livestock Helminthology Research

An elicitation exercise was conducted to collect and identify pressing questions concerning the study of helminths in livestock, to help guide research priorities. Questions were invited from the research community in an inclusive way. Of 385 questions submitted, 100 were chosen by online vote, with priority given to open questions in important areas that are specific enough to permit investigation within a focused project or programme of research. The final list of questions was divided into ten themes. We present the questions and set them briefly in the context of the current state of knowledge. Although subjective, the results provide a snapshot of current concerns and perceived priorities in the field of livestock helminthology, and we hope that they will stimulate ongoing or new research efforts.

How Temperature, Pond-Drying, and Nutrients Influence Parasite Infection and Pathology

The rapid pace of environmental change is driving multi-faceted shifts in abiotic factors that influence parasite transmission. However, cumulative effects of these factors on wildlife diseases remain poorly understood. Here we used an information-theoretic approach to compare the relative influence of abiotic factors (temperature, diurnal temperature range, nutrients and pond-drying), on infection of snail and amphibian hosts by two trematode parasites (Ribeiroia ondatrae and Echinostoma spp.). A temperature shift from 20 to 25 °C was associated with an increase in infected snail prevalence of 10-20%, while overall snail densities declined by a factor of 6. Trematode infection abundance in frogs was best predicted by infected snail density, while Ribeiroia infection specifically also declined by half for each 10% reduction in pond perimeter, despite no effect of perimeter on the per snail release rate of cercariae. Both nutrient concentrations and Ribeiroia infection positively predicted amphibian deformities, potentially owing to reduced host tolerance or increased parasite virulence in more productive environments. For both parasites, temperature, pond-drying, and nutrients were influential at different points in the transmission cycle, highlighting the importance of detailed seasonal field studies that capture the importance of multiple drivers of infection dynamics and the mechanisms through which they operate.

Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases

Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases.

Thermal Performance Curves and the Metabolic Theory of Ecology-A Practical Guide to Models and Experiments for Parasitologists

Climate change will affect host-parasite dynamics in complex ways. The development of forecast models is necessary for proactive disease management, but past studies have frequently reported thermal performance data in idiosyncratic ways that have limited use for parameterizing thermal host-parasite models. Development of improved forecast models will require strong collaborations between experimental parasitologists and disease modelers. The purpose of this article is to facilitate such collaborations by reviewing practical considerations for describing thermal performance curves of parasite and host performance traits, and using them to predict climate change impacts on host-parasite systems. In the first section, we provide an overview of how thermal performance curves can be embedded in life-cycle-based dynamical models of parasitism, and we outline how such models can capture the net effect of multiple nonlinear temperature dependencies affecting the host-parasite dynamics. We also discuss how macroecological generalities based on the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) can be used to determine a priori parameter estimates for thermal performance curves to derive null models for data-deficient species, but we note that most of the generalities suggested by MTE remain to be tested for parasites. In the second section, we discuss empirical knowledge gaps for the temperature dependence of parasite and host performance traits, and we outline the types of data that need to be collected to inform MTE-based models for data-deficient species. We specifically emphasize the importance of (1) capturing the entire thermal response of performance traits, including lower and upper temperature thresholds, and (2) experimentally or statistically separating out the thermal responses of different performance traits (e.g., development and mortality) rather than only reporting composite measures (e.g., apparent development). Not adhering to these principles can lead to biased climate change impact predictions. In the third section, we provide a practical guide outlining how experimentalists can contribute to fill data gaps by measuring the temperature dependence of host and parasite performance traits in ways that are systematic, statistically rigorous, and consistent with the requirements of life cycle-based host-parasite models. This guide includes recommendations and practical examples illustrating (1) the use of perturbation analyses to determine experimental priorities, (2) experimental design tips for quantifying thermal response curves, and (3) statistical methods for estimating the parameters of thermal performance curves. Our hope is that this article helps researchers to maximize the value and use of future data collections for both empirical and modelling studies investigating the way in which temperature influences parasitism.

Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology

Parasitic infections are ubiquitous in wildlife, livestock and human populations, and healthy ecosystems are often parasite rich. Yet, their negative impacts can be extreme. Understanding how both anticipated and cryptic changes in a system might affect parasite transmission at an individual, local and global level is critical for sustainable control in humans and livestock. Here we highlight and synthesize evidence regarding potential effects of 'system changes' (both climatic and anthropogenic) on parasite transmission from wild host-parasite systems. Such information could inform more efficient and sustainable parasite control programmes in domestic animals or humans. Many examples from diverse terrestrial and aquatic natural systems show how abiotic and biotic factors affected by system changes can interact additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence parasite transmission, including through altered habitat structure, biodiversity, host demographics and evolution. Despite this, few studies of managed systems explicitly consider these higher-order interactions, or the subsequent effects of parasite evolution, which can conceal or exaggerate measured impacts of control actions. We call for a more integrated approach to investigating transmission dynamics, which recognizes these complexities and makes use of new technologies for data capture and monitoring, and to support robust predictions of altered parasite dynamics in a rapidly changing world.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.

Spatial distribution of infectious stages of the nematode Syngamus trachea within pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) release pens on estates in the South West of England: Potential density dependence?

The spatial distribution of the infectious stages of parasites with a direct life cycle is one of the most important factors influencing infectious disease dynamics, and acquisition rates will generally increase as the contact time between parasite and host increases. For animal species that are constrained by feeding opportunities, one might expect disease patterns to be highly skewed within confined systems. The aim of the present study was to identify to what extent, if any, eggs of avian parasites are aggregated within the release pen, and to evaluate what effect, if any, this aggregation had on the distribution of the adult stages within the host species. The abundance of Syngamus trachea eggs were highly aggregated within pens, with high levels of contamination driven by a combination of feeder placement, soil moisture and host-mediated heterogeneities in immuno-competence. The log mean and log variance of egg abundance was highly linear (R(2)=0.97-0.99), with an estimated slope (b) of between 1.79 and 1.97 for individual sites, and 2.11 when sites were combined, which indicated aggregation relative to an estimated Poisson slope of unity. Although the placement of feeders and environmental moisture could be contributing to parasite aggregation, density-dependent processes appear to be ensuring the population does not become too over or under-dispersed, in order to maintain the transmission-virulence equilibrium. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to explicitly demonstrate the high spatial aggregation of eggs around feeding sites and the first to suggest possible density-dependent regulatory mechanisms stabilising disease dynamics between S. trachea and ring necked Pheasants (Phasianus colchicus).