Associations of vulnerability to stressful life events with suicide attempts after active duty among high-risk soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-longitudinal study (STARRS-LS)

External Validation and Updating of a Statistical Civilian-Based Suicide Risk Model in US Naval Primary Care

Importance

Suicide remains an ongoing concern in the US military. Statistical models have not been broadly disseminated for US Navy service members.

Objective

To externally validate and update a statistical suicide risk model initially developed in a civilian setting with an emphasis on primary care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data collected from 2007 through 2017 among active-duty US Navy service members. The external civilian model was applied to every visit at Naval Medical Center Portsmouth (NMCP), its NMCP Naval Branch Health Clinics (NBHCs), and TRICARE Prime Clinics (TPCs) that fall within the NMCP area. The model was retrained and recalibrated using visits to NBHCs and TPCs and updated using Department of Defense (DoD)-specific billing codes and demographic characteristics, including expanded race and ethnicity categories. Domain and temporal analyses were performed with bootstrap validation. Data analysis was performed from September 2020 to December 2022.

Exposure

Visit to US NMCP.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Recorded suicidal behavior on the day of or within 30 days of a visit. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC), Brier score, and Spiegelhalter z-test statistic.

Results

Of the 260 583 service members, 6529 (2.5%) had a recorded suicidal behavior, 206 412 (79.2%) were male; 104 835 (40.2%) were aged 20 to 24 years; and 9458 (3.6%) were Asian, 56 715 (21.8%) were Black or African American, and 158 277 (60.7%) were White. Applying the civilian-trained model resulted in an AUROC of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) and an AUPRC of 0.004 (95% CI, 0.003-0.005) at NBHCs with poor calibration (Spiegelhalter P < .001). Retraining the algorithm improved AUROC to 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.93) and AUPRC to 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.68). Number needed to screen in the top risk tiers was 366 for the external model and 200 for the retrained model; the lower number indicates better performance. Domain validation showed AUROC of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.90-0.91) and AUPRC of 0.01 (95% CI, 0.01-0.01), and temporal validation showed AUROC of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78) and AUPRC of 0.003 (95% CI, 0.003-0.005).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of active-duty Navy service members, a civilian suicide attempt risk model was externally validated. Retraining and updating with DoD-specific variables improved performance. Domain and temporal validation results were similar to external validation, suggesting that implementing an external model in US Navy primary care clinics may bypass the need for costly internal development and expedite the automation of suicide prevention in these clinics.

Situational stress and suicide attempt behavior in Army soldiers and veterans: Insights from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study

INTRODUCTION

Prevention of suicide-related behaviors is considered a top clinical priority within the Departments of Veterans Affairs and Defense. Despite previous literature attesting to the likely importance of situational stress as a key correlate of acute changes in suicide risk, longitudinal research into associations between situational stress and suicide-related outcomes among military personnel has been relatively limited.

METHODS

The current study examined associations between situational stress, recent suicide attempt, and future suicide attempt using data from 14,508 Army soldiers and recently discharged veterans enrolled in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Studies (STARRS-LS).

RESULTS

Recent situational stress was more common among recently discharged veterans (vs. soldiers), those with a recent suicide attempt (vs. those without), and those with a subsequent suicide attempt (vs. those without). Job loss was more closely associated with suicide attempts among soldiers, whereas financial crisis, police contact, and death, illness, or injury of close others were more closely associated with suicide attempts among recently discharged veterans.

CONCLUSION

Findings further highlight situational stress as a salient risk factor for suicide-related outcomes among military personnel, particularly among recently discharged veterans. Implications for screening and treatment of at-risk military personnel are discussed.

Supporting servicemembers and veterans during their transition to civilian life using certified sponsors: A three-arm randomized controlled trial

Transitioning servicemembers and veterans (TSMVs) face difficulties throughout their reintegration to civilian life, including challenges with employment, poor social connection, and elevated risk for suicide. To meet the needs of this high-risk population, national initiatives have leveraged community-based interventions. Authors conducted a three-arm randomized controlled trial (n = 200) to evaluate two community-based interventions. The first, Team Red, White, and Blue (RWB), connects TSMVs to their community through physical/social activities. The second, Expiration Term of Service Sponsorship Program (ETS-SP) provides one-on-one certified sponsors to TSMVs who provide support during the reintegration process. TSMVs were assessed at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months. The primary hypothesis was not supported as reintegration difficulties and social support were not significantly different for participants randomly assigned to the two community-based interventions (Arm-2/RWB and Arm-3/RWB + ETS-SP), when the data from the separate arms were collapsed and combined, compared to the waitlist. The results did support the secondary hypothesis as Arm-3/RWB + ETS-SP had less reintegration difficulties over 12 months and initially had more social support compared to Arm-2/RWB, which suggest that augmenting interventions with sponsors outperforms participation in community-based interventions alone. Overall, the results show some limitations of the studied community-based interventions, as implemented and researched within this study. The authors identified factors that may have contributed to the null findings for the primary hypothesis, which can be addressed in future studies, such as addressing the unique needs of TSMVs, enrolling TSMVs into interventions prior to military discharge, measuring and improving participation levels, and providing stepped-care interventions based on risk levels. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Recent Stressful Experiences and Suicide Risk: Implications for Suicide Prevention and Intervention in U.S. Army Soldiers

Objectives

To identify the extent to which the presence of recent stressful events are risk factors for suicide among active-duty soldiers as reported by informants.

Methods

Next-of-kin (NOK) and supervisors (SUP) of active duty soldiers (n = 135) who died by suicide and two groups of living controls: propensity-matched (n = 128) and soldiers who reported suicidal ideation in the past year, but did not die (SI) (n = 108) provided data via structured interviews from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to create a risk score for suicide.

Results

The odds of suicide increased significantly for soldiers experiencing relationship problems, military punishment, and perceived failure or humiliation in the month prior to death. Suicide risk models with these risk factors predicted suicide death among those who reported SI in the past year (OR = 5.9, [95% CI = 1.5, 24.0] χ 2 = 6.24, p = 0.0125, AUC, 0.73 (0.7, 0.8) NOK) and (OR = 8.6, [95% CI = 1.4, 51.5] χ 2 = 5.49, p = 0.0191, AUC, 0.78 (0.7, 0.8); SUP) suggesting the combination of these recent stressors may contribute to the transition from ideation to action.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest for the first time recent stressors distinguished suicide ideating controls from suicide decedents in the month prior to death as reported by informants. Implications for preventive intervention efforts for clinicians, supervisors and family members in identifying the transition from ideation to action are discussed.