New coronavirus outbreak. Lessons learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic

Measuring the impact of donations at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) amid the COVID-19 pandemic

The governments' isolation measures to contain the transmission of COVID-19 imposed a dilemma for the people at the bottom of the pyramid. Since these people have very unreliable sources of income, a dilemma arises: they must either work under risky conditions or refrain from work and suffer from income cuts. Emergency donations of food and cleaning supplies in a pandemic context might be overlooked by government and civil society actors. This paper aims to model the effects of donations on mitigating the negative effects of COVID-19 on vulnerable communities. Applying the system dynamics method, we simulated the behaviour of the pandemic in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) communities and the impacts that donations of food and cleaning supplies have in these settings. We administered surveys to the beneficiaries and local organisations responsible for the final distribution of donations to gather information from the field operations. The results show that increasing access to cleaning supplies in communities through donations can significantly reduce coronavirus transmission, particularly in high-density and low-resource areas, such as slums in urban settings. In addition, we also show that food donations can increase the vulnerable population's ability to afford necessities, alleviating the stress caused by the pandemic on this portion of the population. Therefore, this work helps decision-makers (such as government and non-governmental organisations) understand the impacts of donations on controlling outbreaks, especially under COVID-19 conditions, in a low-resource environment and, thus, aid these hard-to-reach populations in a pandemic setting.

Household Clusters of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection in Suzhou, China

Objectives

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an emerging virus causing substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a cross-sectional investigation of SARS-CoV-2 clusters in Suzhou to determine the transmissibility of the virus among close contacts and to assess the demographic and clinical characteristics between index and secondary cases.

Methods

We review the clustered patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in Suzhou between 22 January and 29 February 2020. The demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between index and secondary cases. We calculated the basic reproduction number (R₀) among close contacts with SLI model.

Results

By 22 February, 87 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were reported, including 50 sporadic and 37 clustered cases, who were generated from 13 clusters. On admission, 5 (20.8%) out of 24 secondary cases were asymptomatic. The male ratio of index cases was significantly higher than that of secondary cases. Additionally, the index cases were more likely to have fever and increased CRP levels than the secondary cases. The R₀ values of clusters displayed a significantly declining trend over time for all clusters. The relative risk of infection in blood-related contacts of cases versus unrelated contacts was 1.60 for SARS-CoV-2 (95% CI: 0.42-2.95).

Conclusions

In conclusion, SARS-CoV-2 has great person-to-person transmission capability among close contacts. The secondary cases are more prone to have mild symptoms than index cases. There is no increased RR of secondary infection in blood relatives versus unrelated contacts. The high rate of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections highlights the urgent need to enhance active case finding strategy for early detection of infectious patients.

The Impact of Contact Structure and Mixing on Control Measures and Disease-Induced Herd Immunity in Epidemic Models: A Mean-Field Model Perspective

The contact structure of a population plays an important role in transmission of infection. Many 'structured models' capture aspects of the contact pattern through an underlying network or a mixing matrix. An important observation in unstructured models of a disease that confers immunity is that once a fraction [Formula: see text] has been infected, the residual susceptible population can no longer sustain an epidemic. A recent observation of some structured models is that this threshold can be crossed with a smaller fraction of infected individuals, because the disease acts like a targeted vaccine, preferentially immunising higher-risk individuals who play a greater role in transmission. Therefore, a limited 'first wave' may leave behind a residual population that cannot support a second wave once interventions are lifted. In this paper, we set out to investigate this more systematically. While networks offer a flexible framework to model contact patterns explicitly, they suffer from several shortcomings: (i) high-fidelity network models require a large amount of data which can be difficult to harvest, and (ii) very few, if any, theoretical contact network models offer the flexibility to tune different contact network properties within the same framework. Therefore, we opt to systematically analyse a number of well-known mean-field models. These are computationally efficient and provide good flexibility in varying contact network properties such as heterogeneity in the number contacts, clustering and household structure or differentiating between local and global contacts. In particular, we consider the question of herd immunity under several scenarios. When modelling interventions as changes in transmission rates, we confirm that in networks with significant degree heterogeneity, the first wave of the epidemic confers herd immunity with significantly fewer infections than equivalent models with less or no degree heterogeneity. However, if modelling the intervention as a change in the contact network, then this effect may become much more subtle. Indeed, modifying the structure disproportionately can shield highly connected nodes from becoming infected during the first wave and therefore make the second wave more substantial. We strengthen this finding by using an age-structured compartmental model parameterised with real data and comparing lockdown periods implemented either as a global scaling of the mixing matrix or age-specific structural changes. Overall, we find that results regarding (disease-induced) herd immunity levels are strongly dependent on the model, the duration of the lockdown and how the lockdown is implemented in the model.

Data-driven methods for present and future pandemics: Monitoring, modelling and managing

This survey analyses the role of data-driven methodologies for pandemic modelling and control. We provide a roadmap from the access to epidemiological data sources to the control of epidemic phenomena. We review the available methodologies and discuss the challenges in the development of data-driven strategies to combat the spreading of infectious diseases. Our aim is to bring together several different disciplines required to provide a holistic approach to epidemic analysis, such as data science, epidemiology, and systems-and-control theory. A 3M-analysis is presented, whose three pillars are: Monitoring, Modelling and Managing. The focus is on the potential of data-driven schemes to address three different challenges raised by a pandemic: (i) monitoring the epidemic evolution and assessing the effectiveness of the adopted countermeasures; (ii) modelling and forecasting the spread of the epidemic; (iii) making timely decisions to manage, mitigate and suppress the contagion. For each step of this roadmap, we review consolidated theoretical approaches (including data-driven methodologies that have been shown to be successful in other contexts) and discuss their application to past or present epidemics, such as Covid-19, as well as their potential application to future epidemics.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Virus Pathogenesis

Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped RNA viruses that infect birds, mammals, and humans. Infections caused by human coronaviruses (hCoVs) are mostly associated with the respiratory, enteric, and nervous systems. The hCoVs only occasionally induce lower respiratory tract disease, including bronchitis, bronchiolitis, and pneumonia. In 2002 to 2003, a global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was the seminal detection of a novel CoV (SARS-CoV). A decade later (June 2012), another novel CoV was implicated as the cause of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in Saudi Arabia. Although bats might serve as a reservoir of MERS-CoV, it is unlikely that they are the direct source for most human cases. Severe lines of evidence suggest that dromedary camels have been the major cause of transmission to humans. The emergence of MERS-CoV has triggered serious concerns about the potential for a widespread outbreak. All MERS cases were linked directly or indirectly to the Middle East region including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and UAE. MERS cases have also been reported in the later phases in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Tunisia. Most of these MERS cases were linked with the Middle East. The high mortality rates in family-based and hospital-based outbreaks were reported among patients with comorbidities such as diabetes and renal failure. MERS-CoV causes an acute, highly lethal pneumonia and renal dysfunction. The major complications reported in fatal cases are hyperkalemia with associated ventricular tachycardia, disseminated intravascular coagulation, pericarditis, and multiorgan failure. The case-fatality rate seems to be higher for MERS-CoV (around 30%) than for SARS-CoV (9.6%). The combination regimen of type 1 interferon + lopinavir/ritonavir is considered as the first-line therapy for MERS. Antiviral treatment is generally recommended for 10 to 14 days in patients with MERS-CoV infection. Convalescent plasma therapy has shown some efficacy among patients refractory to antiviral drugs if administered within 2 weeks of the onset of the disease.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: review of the current situation in the world

This article reviews the current epidemiology and clinical presentation of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection and describes the preparedness plan of several countries. The MERS-CoV was first reported in 2012 and has since infected more than 1600 patients in 26 countries, mostly in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. The epidemiology of the infection is compatible with multiple introductions of the virus into humans from an animal reservoir, probably dromedary camels. The clinical presentation ranges from no symptoms to severe pneumonitis and respiratory failure. Most confirmed cases so far were part of MERS-CoV clusters in hospital settings, affecting mainly middle-aged men and patients with a chronic disease or immuno-suppressed status. There is no vaccine or anti-viral medication available. Viral epidemics can occur anywhere in today's "global village". MERS-CoV is a relatively new virus, and this work is intended to add to the still-sparse data on its epidemiology, modes of transmission, natural history, and clinical features as well as to describe the preparedness plan for MERS-CoV infection in several countries. Effective national and international preparedness plans are essential to predict and control outbreaks, improve patient management, and ensure global health security.