Epidemiological investigations on the potential transmissibility of a rare disease: the case of atypical scrapie in Great Britain

Scientific report on the analysis of the 2-year compulsory intensified monitoring of atypical scrapie

The European Commission asked EFSA whether the scientific data on the 2-year intensified monitoring in atypical scrapie (AS) outbreaks (2013-2020) provide any evidence on the contagiousness of AS, and whether they added any new knowledge on the epidemiology of AS. An ad hoc data set from intensified monitoring in 22 countries with index case/s of AS in sheep and/or goats (742 flocks from 20 countries, 76 herds from 11 countries) was analysed. No secondary cases were confirmed in goat herds, while 35 secondary cases were confirmed in 28 sheep flocks from eight countries. The results of the calculated design prevalence and of a model simulation indicated that the intensified monitoring had limited ability to detect AS, with no difference between countries with or without secondary cases. A regression model showed an increased, but not statistically significant, prevalence (adjusted by surveillance stream) of secondary cases in infected flocks compared with that of index cases in the non-infected flocks (general population). A simulation model of within-flock transmission, comparing a contagious (i.e. transmissible between animals under natural conditions) with a non-contagious scenario, produced a better fit of the observed data with the non-contagious scenario, in which each sheep in a flock had the same probability of developing AS in the first year of life. Based on the analyses performed, and considering uncertainties and data limitations, it was concluded that there is no new evidence that AS can be transmitted between animals under natural conditions, and it is considered more likely (subjective probability range 50-66%) that AS is a non-contagious, rather than a contagious disease. The analysis of the data of the EU intensified monitoring in atypical scrapie infected flocks/herds confirmed some of the known epidemiological features of AS but identified that major knowledge gaps still remain.

Classical and Atypical Scrapie in Sheep and Goats. Review on the Etiology, Genetic Factors, Pathogenesis, Diagnosis, and Control Measures of Both Diseases

Prion diseases, such as scrapie, are neurodegenerative diseases with a fatal outcome, caused by a conformational change of the cellular prion protein (PrP^C), originating with the pathogenic form (PrP^Sc). Classical scrapie in small ruminants is the paradigm of prion diseases, as it was the first transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) described and is the most studied. It is necessary to understand the etiological properties, the relevance of the transmission pathways, the infectivity of the tissues, and how we can improve the detection of the prion protein to encourage detection of the disease. The aim of this review is to perform an overview of classical and atypical scrapie disease in sheep and goats, detailing those special issues of the disease, such as genetic factors, diagnostic procedures, and surveillance approaches carried out in the European Union with the objective of controlling the dissemination of scrapie disease.

Will there be any more classical scrapie cases in sheep in Great Britain? A modelling study to predict future cases

The aim of this study was to apply a back-calculation model to Great Britain (GB) classical scrapie surveillance data, and use this model to estimate how many more cases might be expected, and over what time frame these cases might occur. A back-calculation model was applied to scrapie surveillance data between 2005 and 2019 to estimate the annual rate of decline of classical scrapie. This rate was then extrapolated to predict the number of future cases each year going forward. The model shows that there may be yet further cases of classical scrapie in GB. These will most likely occur in the fallen stock scheme, with approximately a 25% probability of at least 1 further scrapie positive, with a very low probability (~0.2%) of having up to three additional scrapie positives. This highlights the difficulty of completely eliminating all further cases, even in the presence of very effective control measures.

Chronic Wasting Disease In Cervids: Prevalence, Impact And Management Strategies

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) that affects members of the cervidae family. The infectious agent is a misfolded isoform (PrPSC) of the host prion protein (PrPC). The replication of PrPSC initiates a cascade of developmental changes that spread from cell to cell, individual to individual, and that for some TSEs, has crossed the species barrier. CWD can be transmitted horizontally and vertically, and it is the only TSE that affects free-ranging wildlife. While other TSEs are under control and even declining, infection rates of CWD continue to grow and the disease distribution continues to expand in North America and around the world. Since the first reported case in 1967, CWD has spread infecting captive and free-ranging cervids in 26 states in the US, 3 Canadian provinces, 3 European countries and has been found in captive cervids in South Korea. CWD causes considerable ecologic, economic and sociologic impact, as this is a 100% fatal highly contagious infectious disease, with no treatment or cure available. Because some TSEs have crossed the species barrier, the zoonotic potential of CWD is a concern for human health and continues to be investigated. Here we review the characteristics of the CWD prion protein, mechanisms of transmission and the role of genetics. We discuss the characteristics that contribute to prevalence and distribution. We also discuss the impact of CWD and review the management strategies that have been used to prevent and control the spread of CWD.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids

In April and May of 2016, Norway confirmed two cases of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in a wild reindeer and a wild moose, respectively. In the light of this emerging issue, the European Commission requested EFSA to recommend surveillance activities and, if necessary, additional animal health risk-based measures to prevent the introduction of the disease and the spread into/within the EU, specifically Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland and Sweden, and considering seven wild, semidomesticated and farmed cervid species (Eurasian tundra reindeer, Finnish (Eurasian) forest reindeer, moose, roe deer, white-tailed deer, red deer and fallow deer). It was also asked to assess any new evidence on possible public health risks related to CWD. A 3-year surveillance system is proposed, differing for farmed and wild or semidomesticated cervids, with a two-stage sampling programme at the farm/geographically based population unit level (random sampling) and individual level (convenience sampling targeting high-risk animals). The current derogations of Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2016/1918 present a risk of introduction of CWD into the EU. Measures to prevent the spread of CWD within the EU are dependent upon the assumption that the disease is already present; this is currently unknown. The measures listed are intended to contain (limit the geographic extent of a focus) and/or to control (actively stabilise/reduce infection rates in an affected herd or population) the disease where it occurs. With regard to the zoonotic potential, the human species barrier for CWD prions does not appear to be absolute. These prions are present in the skeletal muscle and other edible tissues, so humans may consume infected material in enzootic areas. Epidemiological investigations carried out to date make no association between the occurrence of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans and exposure to CWD prions.

Transmission of atypical scrapie to homozygous ARQ sheep

Two Cheviot ewes homozygous for the A₁₃₆L₁₄₁R₁₅₄Q₁₇₁ (AL₁₄₁RQ) prion protein (PrP) genotype were exposed intracerebrally to brain pools prepared using four field cases of atypical scrapie from the United Kingdom. Animals were clinically normal until the end of the experiment, when they were culled 7 years post-inoculation. Limited accumulation of disease-associated PrP (PrP^Sc) was observed in the cerebellar molecular layer by immunohistochemistry, but not by western blot or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In addition, PrP^Sc was partially localized in astrocytes and microglia, suggesting that these cells have a role in PrP^Sc processing, degradation or both. Our results indicate that atypical scrapie is transmissible to AL₁₄₁RQ sheep, but these animals act as clinically silent carriers with long incubation times.