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Oberlin AM, Wylie BJ. Vector-borne disease, climate change and perinatal health. Semin Perinatol 2023; 47:151841. [PMID: 37852894 DOI: 10.1016/j.semperi.2023.151841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are caused by infectious pathogens that spread from an infected human or animal reservoir to an uninfected human via a vector (mosquito, tick, rodent, others) and remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Pregnant individuals and their fetuses are especially at risk, as certain pathogens, such as Zika virus, have specific implications in pregnancy and for neonatal health. Global climate change is affecting the incidence and geographic spread of many VBDs. Thus, it is important for clinicians in the fields of obstetrics/gynecology and newborn medicine, regardless of geographic location, to familiarize themselves with a basic understanding of these conditions and how climate change is altering their distributions. In this chapter, we review the incidence, clinical presentation, implications during pregnancy and intersection with climate change for four of the most important VBDs in pregnancy: malaria, Zika, dengue and Chagas disease. Although not exhaustive of all VBDs, a more extensive table is included for reference, and our discussion provides a helpful framework for understanding other vector-borne pathogens and perinatal health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Austin M Oberlin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, United States
| | - Blair J Wylie
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, United States; Founding Director, The Collaborative for Women's Environmental Health at Columbia University, United States.
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Wang Y, Zhao S, Wei Y, Li K, Jiang X, Li C, Ren C, Yin S, Ho J, Ran J, Han L, Zee BCY, Chong KC. Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:645-655. [PMID: 37440763 PMCID: PMC10333599 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Revised: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and Southeast Asian settings. We collected weekly data of dengue fever incidence, daily mean temperature and rainfall from 2012 to 2020 in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai. Projections for temperature and rainfall were drawn for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) scenarios. Using a disease transmission model, we projected the dengue fever epidemics until 2090s and determined the changes in annual peak incidence, peak time, epidemic size, and outbreak duration. A total of 684,639 dengue fever cases were reported in the four locations between 2012 and 2020. The projected change in dengue fever transmission would be most significant under the SSP585 scenario. In comparison to the 2030s, the peak incidence would rise by 1.29 times in Singapore, 2.25 times in Colombo, 1.36 times in Selangor, and >10 times in Chiang Mai in the 2090s under SSP585. Additionally, the peak time was projected to be earlier in Singapore, Colombo, and Selangor, but be later in Chiang Mai under the SSP585 scenario. Even in a milder emission scenario of SSP126, the epidemic size was projected to increase by 5.94%, 10.81%, 12.95%, and 69.60% from the 2030s-2090s in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai, respectively. The outbreak durations in the four settings were projected to be prolonged over this century under SSP126 and SSP245, while a slight decrease is expected in 2090s under SSP585. The results indicate that climate change is expected to increase the risk of dengue fever transmission in tropical areas of South and Southeast Asia. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions could be crucial in reducing the transmission of dengue fever in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yawen Wang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Shi Zhao
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yuchen Wei
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Kehang Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Xiaoting Jiang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Conglu Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Chao Ren
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Shi Yin
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Janice Ho
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Jinjun Ran
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Lefei Han
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Benny Chung-ying Zee
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Ka Chun Chong
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
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Ochida N, Mangeas M, Dupont-Rouzeyrol M, Dutheil C, Forfait C, Peltier A, Descloux E, Menkes C. Modeling present and future climate risk of dengue outbreak, a case study in New Caledonia. Environ Health 2022; 21:20. [PMID: 35057822 PMCID: PMC8772089 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00829-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2021] [Accepted: 01/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue dynamics result from the complex interactions between the virus, the host and the vector, all being under the influence of the environment. Several studies explored the link between weather and dengue dynamics and some investigated the impact of climate change on these dynamics. Most attempted to predict incidence rate at a country scale or assess the environmental suitability at a global or regional scale. Here, we propose a new approach which consists in modeling the risk of dengue outbreak at a local scale according to climate conditions and study the evolution of this risk taking climate change into account. We apply this approach in New Caledonia, where high quality data are available. METHODS We used a statistical estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt) based on case counts to create a categorical target variable : epidemic week/non-epidemic week. A machine learning classifier has been trained using relevant climate indicators in order to estimate the probability for a week to be epidemic under current climate data and this probability was then estimated under climate change scenarios. RESULTS Weekly probability of dengue outbreak was best predicted with the number of days when maximal temperature exceeded 30.8°C and the mean of daily precipitation over 80 and 60 days prior to the predicted week respectively. According to scenario RCP8.5, climate will allow dengue outbreak every year in New Caledonia if the epidemiological and entomological contexts remain the same. CONCLUSION We identified locally relevant climatic factor driving dengue outbreaks in New Caledonia and assessed the inter-annual and seasonal risk of dengue outbreak under different climate change scenarios up to the year 2100. We introduced a new modeling approach to estimate the risk of dengue outbreak depending on climate conditions. This approach is easily reproducible in other countries provided that reliable epidemiological and climate data are available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noé Ochida
- UMR ENTROPIE (IRD, Université de la Réunion, CNRS, Ifremer, Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie), Nouméa, New Caledonia.
- URE-Dengue et Arboviroses, Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Pasteur Network, Nouméa, New Caledonia.
| | - Morgan Mangeas
- UMR ENTROPIE (IRD, Université de la Réunion, CNRS, Ifremer, Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie), Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Myrielle Dupont-Rouzeyrol
- URE-Dengue et Arboviroses, Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Pasteur Network, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Cyril Dutheil
- Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany
| | - Carole Forfait
- Direction des Affaires Sanitaires et Sociales, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | | | - Elodie Descloux
- Service de Médecine interne, Centre Hospitalier Territorial Gaston-Bourret, 988935, Dumbea-Sur-Mer, New Caledonia
| | - Christophe Menkes
- UMR ENTROPIE (IRD, Université de la Réunion, CNRS, Ifremer, Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie), Nouméa, New Caledonia
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Sadeghieh T, Sargeant JM, Greer AL, Berke O, Dueymes G, Gachon P, Ogden NH, Ng V. Zika virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate. Epidemics 2021; 37:100491. [PMID: 34454353 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2020] [Revised: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted byAedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes between humans and non-human primates. Climate change may enhance virus reproduction in Aedes spp. mosquito populations, resulting in intensified ZIKV outbreaks. The study objective was to explore how an outbreak similar to the 2016 ZIKV outbreak in Brazil might unfold with projected climate change. METHODS A compartmental infectious disease model that included compartments for humans and mosquitoes was developed to fit the 2016 ZIKV outbreak data from Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, published polynomial relationships between temperature and temperature-sensitive mosquito population and virus transmission parameters (mosquito mortality, development rate, and ZIKV extrinsic incubation period) were used. Projections for future outbreaks were obtained by simulating transmission with effects of projected average monthly temperatures on temperature-sensitive model parameters at each of three future time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The projected future climate was obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the Co-Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) with two radiative forcing values, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of temperature-dependent parameters on the model outcomes. RESULTS Climate change scenarios impacted the model outcomes, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the duration of the ZIKV outbreak. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP4.5, the peak incidence was 22,030 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 12 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 52 compared to 41 weeks. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP8.5, the peak incidence was 21,786 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 11 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 50 compared to 41weeks. The increases are due to optimal climate conditions for mosquitoes, with the mean temperature reaching 28 °C in the warmest months. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), mean temperatures extend above optimal for mosquito survival in the warmest months. CONCLUSION Outbreaks of ZIKV in locations similar to Brazil are expected to be more intense with a warming climate. As climate change impacts are becoming increasingly apparent on human health, it is important to quantify the effect and use this knowledge to inform decisions on prevention and control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tara Sadeghieh
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada.
| | - Jan M Sargeant
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Amy L Greer
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Olaf Berke
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Guillaume Dueymes
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Philippe Gachon
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - Victoria Ng
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
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Sadeghieh T, Sargeant JM, Greer AL, Berke O, Dueymes G, Gachon P, Ogden NH, Ng V. Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate. Infect Dis Model 2021; 6:664-677. [PMID: 33997536 PMCID: PMC8090996 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2021] [Revised: 02/20/2021] [Accepted: 04/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011–2040 (short-term), 2041–2070 (mid-term), and 2071–2100 (long-term). Methods A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil. Results Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070–2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival. Conclusions Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tara Sadeghieh
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.,Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.,Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - Jan M Sargeant
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.,Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Amy L Greer
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.,Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Olaf Berke
- Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.,Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Guillaume Dueymes
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Philippe Gachon
- ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - Victoria Ng
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
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Davis C, Murphy AK, Bambrick H, Devine GJ, Frentiu FD, Yakob L, Huang X, Li Z, Yang W, Williams G, Hu W. A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 195:110849. [PMID: 33561446 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Revised: 12/22/2020] [Accepted: 02/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of dengue virus, and their geographic distributions are predicted to expand further with economic development, and in response to climate change. We aimed to estimate the impact of future climate change on dengue transmission through the development of a Suitable Conditions Index (SCI), based on climatic variables known to support vectorial capacity. We calculated the SCI based on various climate change scenarios for six countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, China, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). METHODS Monthly raster climate data (temperature and precipitation) were collected for the period January 2005 to December 2018 along with projected climate estimates for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4·5, 6·0 and 8·5 emissions scenarios. We defined suitable temperature ranges for dengue transmission of between 17·05-34·61 °C for Ae. aegypti and 15·84-31·51 °C for Ae. albopictus and then developed a historical and predicted SCI based on weather variability to measure the expected geographic limits of dengue vectorial capacity. Historical and projected SCI values were compared through difference maps for the six countries. FINDINGS Comparing different emission scenarios across all countries, we found that most South East Asian countries showed either a stable pattern of high suitability, or a potential decline in suitability for both vectors from 2030 to 2070, with a declining pattern particularly evident for Ae. albopictus. Temperate areas of both China and Australia showed a less stable pattern, with both moderate increases and decreases in suitability for each vector in different regions between 2030 and 2070. INTERPRETATION The SCI will be a useful index for forecasting potential dengue risk distributions in response to climate change, and independently of the effects of human activity. When considered alongside additional correlates of infection such as human population density and socioeconomic development indicators, the SCI could be used to develop an early warning system for dengue transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Callan Davis
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Amanda K Murphy
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Gregor J Devine
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Francesca D Frentiu
- Centre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Xiaodong Huang
- Centre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Zhongjie Li
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Weizhong Yang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Population Medicine & Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Gail Williams
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
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Joshi A, Miller C. Review of machine learning techniques for mosquito control in urban environments. ECOL INFORM 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
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Hall NL, Barnes S, Canuto C, Nona F, Redmond AM. Climate change and infectious diseases in Australia's Torres Strait Islands. Aust N Z J Public Health 2021; 45:122-128. [PMID: 33522674 DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.13073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Revised: 10/01/2020] [Accepted: 12/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This research seeks to identify climate-sensitive infectious diseases of concern with a present and future likelihood of increased occurrence in the geographically vulnerable Torres Strait Islands, Australia. The objective is to contribute evidence to the need for adequate climate change responses. METHODS Case data of infectious diseases with proven, potential and speculative climate sensitivity were compiled. RESULTS Five climate-sensitive diseases in the Torres Strait and Cape York region were identified as of concern: tuberculosis, dengue, Ross River virus, melioidosis and nontuberculous mycobacterial infection. The region constitutes 0.52% of Queensland's population but has a disproportionately high proportion of the state's cases: 20.4% of melioidosis, 2.4% of tuberculosis and 2.1% of dengue. CONCLUSIONS The Indigenous Torres Strait Islander peoples intend to remain living on their traditional country long-term, yet climate change brings risks of both direct and indirect human health impacts. Implications for public health: Climate-sensitive infections pose a disproportionate burden and ongoing risk to Torres Strait Islander peoples. Addressing the causes of climate change is the responsibility of various agencies in parallel with direct action to minimise or prevent infections. All efforts should privilege Torres Strait Islander peoples' voices to self-determine response actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nina L Hall
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland
| | - Samuel Barnes
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland
| | - Condy Canuto
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland
| | - Francis Nona
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland
| | - Andrew M Redmond
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland.,Infectious Diseases Unit, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Queensland
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Xu Z, Bambrick H, Frentiu FD, Devine G, Yakob L, Williams G, Hu W. Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008118. [PMID: 32119666 PMCID: PMC7067491 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2019] [Revised: 03/12/2020] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. METHODS Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. RESULTS Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. CONCLUSIONS Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Francesca D. Frentiu
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Gregor Devine
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gail Williams
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- * E-mail:
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Ryan SJ, Carlson CJ, Mordecai EA, Johnson LR. Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007213. [PMID: 30921321 PMCID: PMC6438455 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 344] [Impact Index Per Article: 68.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 02/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sadie J. Ryan
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Colin J. Carlson
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States of America
- National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Erin A. Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Leah R. Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
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Lam JH, Chua YL, Lee PX, Martínez Gómez JM, Ooi EE, Alonso S. Dengue vaccine-induced CD8+ T cell immunity confers protection in the context of enhancing, interfering maternal antibodies. JCI Insight 2017; 2:94500. [PMID: 29263304 DOI: 10.1172/jci.insight.94500] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2017] [Accepted: 11/03/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Declining levels of maternal antibodies were shown to sensitize infants born to dengue-immune mothers to severe disease during primary infection, through the process of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (ADE). With the recent approval for human use of Sanofi-Pasteur's chimeric dengue vaccine CYD-TDV and several vaccine candidates in clinical development, the scenario of infants born to vaccinated mothers has become a reality. This raises 2 questions: will declining levels of maternal vaccine-induced antibodies cause ADE; and, will maternal antibodies interfere with vaccination efficacy in the infant? To address these questions, the above scenario was modeled in mice. Type I IFN-deficient female mice were immunized with live attenuated DENV2 PDK53, the core component of the tetravalent DENVax candidate currently under clinical development. Pups born to PDK53-immunized dams acquired maternal antibodies that strongly neutralized parental strain 16681, but not the heterologous DENV2 strain D2Y98P-PP1, and instead caused ADE during primary infection with this strain. Furthermore, pups failed to seroconvert after PDK53 vaccination, owing to maternal antibody interference. However, a cross-protective multifunctional CD8+ T cell response did develop. Thus, our work advocates for the development of dengue vaccine candidates that induce protective CD8+ T cells despite the presence of enhancing, interfering maternal antibodies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Hang Lam
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, and.,Immunology Programme, Life Sciences Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yen Leong Chua
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, and
| | - Pei Xuan Lee
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, and.,Immunology Programme, Life Sciences Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Julia María Martínez Gómez
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, and.,Immunology Programme, Life Sciences Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Eng Eong Ooi
- Emerging Infectious Disease Program, Duke-NUS, Singapore
| | - Sylvie Alonso
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, and.,Immunology Programme, Life Sciences Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
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Tjaden NB, Caminade C, Beierkuhnlein C, Thomas SM. Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts. Trends Parasitol 2017; 34:227-245. [PMID: 29229233 DOI: 10.1016/j.pt.2017.11.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2017] [Revised: 11/21/2017] [Accepted: 11/21/2017] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Cyril Caminade
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, UK; NIHR, Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Liverpool, UK
| | - Carl Beierkuhnlein
- Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Germany; BayCEER, Bayreuth Center for Ecology and Environmental Research, Bayreuth, Germany; GIB, Geographisches Institut Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany
| | - Stephanie Margarete Thomas
- Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Germany; BayCEER, Bayreuth Center for Ecology and Environmental Research, Bayreuth, Germany.
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Páez Chávez J, Götz T, Siegmund S, Wijaya KP. An SIR-Dengue transmission model with seasonal effects and impulsive control. Math Biosci 2017; 289:29-39. [DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2017.04.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2016] [Revised: 02/24/2017] [Accepted: 04/17/2017] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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