Methods for generating hypotheses in human enteric illness outbreak investigations: a scoping review of the evidence

Hypothesis Generation During Foodborne-Illness Outbreak Investigations

Hypothesis generation is a critical, but challenging, step in a foodborne outbreak investigation. The pathogens that contaminate food have many diverse reservoirs, resulting in seemingly limitless potential vehicles. Identifying a vehicle is particularly challenging for clusters detected through national pathogen-specific surveillance, because cases can be geographically dispersed and lack an obvious epidemiologic link. Moreover, state and local health departments could have limited resources to dedicate to cluster and outbreak investigations. These challenges underscore the importance of hypothesis generation during an outbreak investigation. In this review, we present a framework for hypothesis generation focusing on 3 primary sources of information, typically used in combination: 1) known sources of the pathogen causing illness; 2) person, place, and time characteristics of cases associated with the outbreak (descriptive data); and 3) case exposure assessment. Hypothesis generation can narrow the list of potential food vehicles and focus subsequent epidemiologic, laboratory, environmental, and traceback efforts, ensuring that time and resources are used more efficiently and increasing the likelihood of rapidly and conclusively implicating the contaminated food vehicle.

The use of multiple hypothesis-generating methods in an outbreak investigation of Escherichia coli O121 infections associated with wheat flour, Canada 2016-2017

A Canadian outbreak investigation into a cluster of Escherichia coli O121 was initiated in late 2016. When initial interviews using a closed-ended hypothesis-generating questionnaire did not point to a common source, cases were centrally re-interviewed using an open-ended approach. The open-ended interviews led cases to describe exposures with greater specificity, as well as food preparation activities. Data collected supported hypothesis generation, particularly with respect to flour exposures. In March 2017, an open sample of Brand X flour from a case home, and a closed sample collected at retail of the same brand and production date, tested positive for the outbreak strain of E. coli O121. In total, 76% (16/21) of cases reported that they used or probably used Brand X flour or that it was used or probably was used in the home during their exposure period. Crucial hypothesis-generating techniques used during the course of the investigation included a centralised open-ended interviewing approach and product sampling from case homes. This was the first outbreak investigation in Canada to identify flour as the source of infection.