The impact of long-term moderate level of vaccination coverage for epidemiology of varicella in Lu'an, China: should we change immunisation strategy now?

Cost-effectiveness of varicella vaccination for 1-4-year-olds in Shanghai, China

INTRODUCTION

Varicella has not yet been included in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in China, and varicella vaccination strategies vary by region. To determine the optimal varicella vaccination strategy in Shanghai, China, the cost-effectiveness and five-year costs of five immunization scenarios were analyzed.

METHODS

A static decision tree-Markov model was developed in 2022 to assess the cost-effectiveness and five-year costs of voluntary and routine varicella vaccination programs in the 2019 birth cohort in Shanghai from a societal perspective. Parameters were collected in 2022 from the varicella surveillance system, a questionnaire survey of 414 guardians of patients with childhood varicella, and semi-structured interviews with 20 experts on varicella outbreaks from different institutions in Shanghai. The outcomes included varicella cases avoided, quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss, and incremental costs per QALY (ICER). The five-year costs were compared with local medical expenditures.

RESULTS

Among the five scenarios, one dose of routine varicella vaccination was the most cost-saving (USD 70.2) and cost-effective (Dominant) with a five-year immunization expenditure of USD 9.9 million. Two doses of routine varicella vaccination had the highest QALY (29.9), and its ICER (USD 791.9/QALY) was below the willingness-to-pay threshold (USD 5,203-23,767/QALY). The five-year immunization expenditure was USD 19.8 million. The effectiveness and price of vaccines, vaccination coverage, and per capita income are the four main factors that affect ICERs.

CONCLUSIONS

In Shanghai, the two doses of routine varicella vaccination strategy for 1- and 4-year-olds with a 95% coverage rate was found to be the optimal varicella immunization strategy.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Incidence of Varicella Under Age 35 - China, 2005-2021

What is already known about this topic?

Varicella is an acute respiratory infectious disease primarily affecting children. However, recent studies have indicated an increasing susceptibility to varicella among older age groups.

What is added by this report?

The findings demonstrate a significant rise in the incidence rate among individuals aged 15-19. Males under 20 years old were found to have a higher risk compared to females, whereas males had a lower risk compared to females aged 20-35 years.

What are the implications for public health practice?

This study is the first comparative analysis using varicella data reported between 2005 and 2021 to examine the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort to varicella incidence in China. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in China and identify high-risk groups. The results of this study will contribute valuable information for the development of varicella prevention policies.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui Province.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021, which can provide a basis for the future study and formulation of varicella prevention and control policies in the province.

METHODS

Surveillance data were used to characterize the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021 in terms of population, time, and space. Spatial autocorrelation of varicella was explored using the Moran index (Moran I). The Kulldorff space-time scan statistic was used to analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of varicella.

RESULTS

A total of 276,115 cases of varicella were reported from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui, with an average annual incidence of 44.8 per 100,000, and the highest incidence was 81.2 per 100,000 in 2019. The male-to-female ratio of cases was approximately 1.26, which has been gradually decreasing in recent years. The population aged 5-14 years comprised the high-incidence group, although the incidence in the population 30 years and older has gradually increased. Students accounted for the majority of cases, and the proportion of cases in both home-reared children (aged 0-7 years who are not sent to nurseries, daycare centers, or school) and kindergarten children (aged 3-6 years) has changed slightly in recent years. There were two peaks of varicella incidence annually, except for 2020, and the incidence was typically higher in the winter peak than in summer. The incidence of varicella in southern Anhui was higher than that in northern Anhui. The average annual incidence at the county level ranged from 6.61 to 152.14 per 100,000, and the varicella epidemics in 2018-2021 were relatively severe. The spatial and temporal distribution of varicella in Anhui was not random, with a positive spatial autocorrelation found at the county level (Moran I=0.412). There were 11 districts or counties with high-high clusters, mainly distributed in the south of Anhui, and 3 districts or counties with high-low or low-high clusters. Space-time scan analysis identified five possible clusters of areas, and the most likely cluster was distributed in the southeastern region of Anhui.

CONCLUSIONS

This study comprehensively describes the epidemiology and changing trend of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021. In the future, preventive and control measures should be strengthened for the key populations and regions of varicella.

Persistence of antibodies 5 years after hepatitis B vaccination in preterm birth children: A retrospective cohort study using real-world data

Previous studies did not provide substantial evidence for long-term immune persistence after the hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) in preterm birth (PTB) children. Consequently, there is ongoing controversy surrounding the booster immunization strategy for these children. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the disparities in immune persistence between PTB children and full-term children. A total of 1027 participants were enrolled in this study, including 505 PTB children in the exposure group and 522 full-term children in the control group. The negative rate of hepatitis B surface antibody (HBsAb) in the PTB group was significantly lower than that in the control group (47.9% vs. 41.4%, p = .035). The risk of HBsAb-negative in the exposure group was 1.5 times higher than that in the control group (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-2.0). The geometric mean concentration (GMC) of HBsAb was much lower for participants in the exposure group compared to participants in the control group (9.3 vs. 12.4 mIU/mL, p = .029). Subgroup analysis showed that the very preterm infants (gestational age <32 weeks) and the preterm low birth weight infants (birth weight <2000 g) had relatively low GMC levels of 3.2 mIU/mL (95% CI: 0.9-11.1) and 7.9 mIU/mL (95% CI: 4.2-14.8), respectively. Our findings demonstrated that PTB had a significant impact on the long-term persistence of HBsAb after HepB vaccination. The very preterm infants (gestational age <32 weeks) and the preterm low birth weight infants (birth weight <2000 g) may be special populations that should be given priority for HepB booster vaccination.

The epidemiology of varicella and effectiveness of varicella vaccine in Ganyu, China: a long-term community surveillance study

BACKGROUND

The real-world data of long-term protection under moderate vaccination coverage is limited. This study aimed to evaluate varicella epidemiology and the long-term effectiveness under moderate coverage levels in Ganyu District, Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province.

METHODS

This was a population-based, retrospective birth cohort study based on the immunization information system (IIS) and the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) in Ganyu District. Varicella cases reported from 2009 to 2020 were included to describe the epidemiology of varicella, and eleven-year consecutive birth cohorts (2008-2018) were included to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of varicella by Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 155,232 native children and 3,251 varicella cases were included. The vaccination coverage was moderate with 37.1%, correspondingly, the annual incidence of varicella infection increased 4.4-fold from 2009 to 2020. A shift of the varicella cases to older age groups was observed, with the peak proportion of cases shifting from 5-6 year-old to 7-8 year-old. The adjusted effectiveness of one dose of vaccine waned over time, and the adjusted VE decreased from 72.9% to 41.8% in the one-dose group.

CONCLUSIONS

The insufficient vaccination coverage (37.1%) may have contributed in part to the rising annual incidence of varicella infection, and a shift of varicella cases to older age groups occurred. The effectiveness of one dose of varicella vaccine was moderate and waned over time. It is urgent to increase varicella vaccine coverage to 80% to reduce the incidence of varicella and prevent any potential shift in the age at infection in China.

Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of varicella in Lu'an, Eastern China, 2015-2020

Varicella (chickenpox) is a serious public health problem in China, with the most reported cases among childhood vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, and its reported incidence has increased over 20-fold since 2005. Few previous studies have explored the association of multiple meteorological factors with varicella and considered the potential confounding effects of air pollutants. It is the first study to investigate and analyze the effects of multiple meteorological factors on varicella incidence, controlling for the confounding effects of various air pollutants. Daily meteorological and air pollution data and varicella cases were collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, in Lu'an, Eastern China. A combination of the quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the meteorological factor-lag-varicella relationship, and the risk of varicella in extreme meteorological conditions. The maximum single-day lag effects of varicella were 1.288 (95%CI, 1.201-1.381, lag 16 day), 1.475 (95%CI, 1.152-1.889, lag 0 day), 1.307 (95%CI, 1.196-1.427, lag 16 day), 1.271 (95%CI, 0.981-1.647, lag 4 day), and 1.266 (95%CI, 1.162-1.378, lag 21 day), when mean temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), mean air pressure, wind speed, and sunshine hours were -5.8°C, 13.5°C, 1035.5 hPa, 6 m/s, and 0 h, respectively. At the maximum lag period, the overall effects of mean temperature and pressure on varicella showed W-shaped curves, peaked at 17.5°C (RR=2.085, 95%CI: 1.480-2.937) and 1035.5 hPa (RR=5.481, 95%CI: 1.813-16.577), while DTR showed an M-shaped curve and peaked at 4.4°C (RR=6.131, 95%CI: 1.120-33.570). Sunshine hours were positively correlated with varicella cases at the lag of 0-8 days and 0-9 days when sunshine duration exceeded 10 h. Furthermore, the lag effects of extreme meteorological factors on varicella cases were statistically significant, except for the extremely high wind speed. We found that mean temperature, mean air pressure, DTR, and sunshine hours had significant nonlinear effects on varicella incidence, which may be important predictors of varicella early warning.

A retrospective study of hepatitis B vaccination in preterm birth and low birth weight infants born to hepatitis B surface antigen-positive mothers: Time to close the policy-practice gap

National Immunization Program-version 2016 (ISIV-NIP-v2016) recommended a 4-dose hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) schedule for preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) infants born to HBsAg-positive mothers. However, the implementation of this immunization strategy in the past five years has not been fully evaluated in China. We reviewed the data of pregnant women and live-born infants from 24 hospitals between 2016 and 2021 in Lu'an, Anhui province, to estimate the prevalence of PTB, LBW, and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected pregnant women. We analyzed the vaccination status of HepB and HBIG among PTB and LBW infants born to HBsAg-positive mothers. A total of 160 222 pregnant women and 159 613 live-born infants were included in this study. The estimated prevalence of PTB, LBW and HBV-infected pregnant women was 3.86% (range: 3.28%-5.10%), 2.77% (range: 2.12%-3.66%), and 3.27% (range: 3.03%-3.49%), respectively. We screened 340 PTB and LBW infants born to HBsAg-positive mothers between 2016 and 2020. We found that the coverage of HepB and HBIG among them was 100% and 99.39%. However, the timely vaccination rate of the HepB birth dose was only 78.59% and only four children (1.22%) received the 4-dose HepB as recommended by ISIV-NIP-v2016. The 4-dose of HepB for PTB and LBW infants born to HBsAg-positive mothers recommended by ISIV-NIP-v2016 was not fully implemented. A strong public health intervention should be taken to close the policy-practice gap in China in the future.

Long-term vaccine efficacy of a 2-dose varicella vaccine in China from 2011 to 2021: A retrospective observational study

Objective

A 2-dose varicella vaccine immunization strategy has been implemented in many cities in China, but there is few evidence on a long-term evaluation of the efficacy of the 2-dose varicella vaccine from China. This study aims to assess the long-term vaccine efficacy of the two doses varicella vaccine and analysis of its influencing factors.

Methods

A retrospective study was carried out in 837,144 children born between 2011 and 2017 in Ningbo, Easten China. The logistic regression was performed to estimate varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE).

Results

The overall VE of 2 doses of varicella vaccine compared without the vaccine was 90.31% (89.24-91.26%), and the overall incremental VE of 2 doses of varicella vaccine compared to the 1-dose was 64.71% (59.92-68.93%). Moreover, the varicella vaccination age of the second dose and the interval between 2 doses were both associated with VE. The VE compared to that without the vaccine in children vaccinated at <4 years old was 91.22% (95%CI: 90.16-92.17%) which was higher than in children vaccinated at ≥4 years old (VE: 86.79%; 95%CI: 84.52-88.73). And the effectiveness of the vaccine was 93.60% (95%CI: 92.19-94.75%) in children with the interval of the 2 doses ≤ 24 months significantly higher than in children with the interval of ≥36 months (VE: 85.62%, 95%CI: 82.89-87.91%).

Conclusions

This study provides evidence for long-term VE of the 2-dose varicella vaccine and the better age for 2-dose vaccination and the interval between 2 doses of the vaccine in China.

Epidemiological impact of universal varicella vaccination on consecutive emergency department visits for varicella and its economic impact among children in Kobe City, Japan

INTRODUCTION

Previous studies reported a dramatic decline in the incidence of varicella and varicella-related deaths after implementing universal varicella vaccination (VarV). Although previous studies reported the effectiveness and economic impact of VarV, they were unknown in the emergency department (ED) setting.

METHODS

To determine the effectiveness and economic impact of VarV in the ED, Kobe, Japan, we retrospectively reviewed the clinical database of consecutive patients younger than 16 years presenting to our primary ED from 2011 to 2019.

RESULTS

Of the 265,191 children presenting to our ED, 3,092 patients were clinically diagnosed with varicella. The number of patients with varicella was approximately 500 annually, before introducing the universal two-dose VarV for children aged 1 to <3 years in October 2014, in the Japanese national immunization program, and decreased to approximately 200 in 2019. The number of patients with varicella younger than 1 year (ineligible for the vaccination) also decreased. Regarding the economic impact, the medical cost in our ED reduced after the introduction of VarV was JPY 4.1 million (US$ 40,049) annually. From the central data, approximately 95% of children were vaccinated after October 2014; however, a relatively large percentage of infected unvaccinated children (59.0%) presented to ED in this study. After the implementation of the universal VarV, infection was mainly observed in older children (i.e., the unvaccinated generation).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data showed the effectiveness and economic impact of VarV in the ED setting. Additionally, our data suggested that the public vaccination program should include older unvaccinated children and other unvaccinated individuals.

Upgrading the school entry vaccination record check strategy to improve varicella vaccination coverage: results from a quasi-experiment study

BACKGROUND

The school entry vaccination record check strategy (SECS) is an appropriate opportunity to recommend vaccines for students to improve vaccination coverage (VC). However, it is only utilized for providing necessary catch-up vaccination for students who are missing the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccines in China. We aimed to address that gap and quantify the relationship between the SECS policy and the increase of coverage in varicella vaccine (VarV).

METHODS

We employed a pretest and posttest quasi-experimental design to examine the effect of the upgraded SECS policy on the change of VarV coverage in newly enrolled students in Lu'an, 2019-2020.

RESULTS

Eight hundred participants were randomly divided into the control group (C group, 31.8%), the telephone-based intervention group (T group, 31.2%), and the written notification intervention group (W group, 37.0%). Totally, 84 students received VarV during the study period, with a VC of 10.5%. The possibility of vaccination in the T group (RR = 4.9, 95% CI:2.2-10.9) and W group (RR = 5.2, 95% CI:2.4-11.5) was significantly higher than that in the C group (p< .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that the upgraded SECS produce a positive effect on improving the VC of VarV. This nudge strategy may decrease varicella outbreaks in schools in China, especially in provinces where VarV is not introduced into EPI.

The descriptive epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 during the epidemic period in Lu'an, China: achieving limited community transmission using proactive response strategies

Hubei province in China has had the most confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and has reported sustained transmission of the disease. Although Lu'an city is adjacent to Hubei province, its community transmission was blocked at the early stage, and the impact of the epidemic was limited. Therefore, we summarised the overall characteristics of the entire epidemic course in Lu'an to help cities with a few imported cases better contain the epidemic. A total of 69 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 11 asymptomatic carriers were identified in Lu'an during the epidemic from 12 January to 21 February 2020. Fifty-two (65.0%) cases were male, and the median age was 40 years. On admission, 56.5% of cases had a fever as the initial symptom, and pneumonia was present in 89.9% of cases. The mean serial interval and the mean duration of hospitalisation were 6.5 days (95% CI: 4.8-8.2) and 18.2 days (95% CI: 16.8-19.5), respectively. A total of 16 clusters involving 60 cases (17 first-generation cases and 43 secondary cases) were reported during the epidemic. We observed that only 18.9% (7/37) index cases resulted in community transmission during the epidemic in Lu'an, indicating that the scale of the epidemic was limited to a low level in Lu'an city. An asymptomatic carrier caused the largest cluster, involving 13 cases. Spread of COVID-19 by asymptomatic carriers represents an enormous challenge for countries responding to the pandemic.