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Aldrees T, Almatrafi S, Musallam N, Alroqi A. Experience of People With Chronic Sinusitis During COVID-19 Lockdown in Saudi Arabia: Insights and Lessons. Cureus 2023; 15:e40579. [PMID: 37469816 PMCID: PMC10352144 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.40579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Background This study aims to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown period on chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) symptoms control. Methodology This cross-sectional study was carried out on adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who visited King Abdulaziz University Hospital within six months before the lockdown starting date. Background information, including patients' diagnosis, presence of rhinitis, number of previous surgeries, and medications, was collected. CRS symptom burden was measured using a validated Arabic version of the 22-item Sino-Nasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22). Study participants were required to complete the survey two months after the start of the lockdown. Results Out of 66 patients, 43 agreed to participate. The majority of respondents (34, 75.6%) were diagnosed with CRS with nasal polyps. The study revealed no differences between pre- and post-lockdown total symptom scores. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the health system worldwide in many ways. Regarding the scope of our study, CRS symptoms, fortunately, did not worsen with the pandemic. This is considered the first reported study to assess such symptom control among people with CRS in Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 lockdown period.
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Affiliation(s)
- Turki Aldrees
- Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, College of Medicine, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj, SAU
| | - Sharif Almatrafi
- Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, College of Medicine, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj, SAU
| | - Norah Musallam
- Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, Security Forces Hospital, Riyadh, SAU
| | - Ahmad Alroqi
- Otolaryngology - Head & Neck Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, SAU
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Disaster Preparedness: Hospital Pharmacy Strategy for Prioritized Inventory Management and Drug Procurement on Vancouver Island. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2022; 17:e235. [PMID: 36047249 DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2022.186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Disaster events can increase demand for medication supplies and interfere with supply chains, leading to compromised care in hospitals. Providing an organized response to an additional surge of disaster-related patients requires pre-planned emergency management procedures. Hospital pharmacists can address this with prioritized drug procurement and inventory management strategies which may improve the availability of key medications for a disaster response. Previous disaster events have provided insight on medications used to treat disaster-related injuries and exacerbations of medical conditions in emergency departments. This article provides a detailed description of Vancouver Island's hospital pharmacy strategy for the procurement and minimum stock levels of high priority medications in preparation for a disaster.
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Ghazanchaei E, Khorasani-Zavareh D, Aghazadeh-Attari J, Mohebbi I. Identifying and Describing Impact of Disasters on Non-Communicable Diseases: A Systematic Review. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 50:1143-1155. [PMID: 34540735 PMCID: PMC8410956 DOI: 10.18502/ijph.v50i6.6413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2020] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients with non-communicable diseases are vulnerable to disasters. This is a systematic review describing the impact of disasters on non-communicable diseases. METHODS A systematic review was conducted using PRISMA standards. Relevant articles published from 1997 to 2019 collected by searching the Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, databases. We specifically examined reports describing NCDs and including the key words "non-communicable disease and Disasters". NCDs included cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes, cancer and mental health diseases. RESULTS Of the 663 studies identified, only 48 articles met all the eligibility criteria. Most studies have shown the impact of all natural disasters on non-communicable diseases (39.8% n=19). The largest study was the effect of earthquakes on non-communicable diseases (29.2% n=14). For the NCDs targeted by this research, most of the included studies were a combination of four diseases: cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and cancer (44% n=21). Followed by cardiovascular disease (14.6% n=7), chronic respiratory disease (12.5% n=6), diabetes and cancer (6.2% n=3) and mental health (12.5% n=6). CONCLUSION The incidence of disasters affects the management of treatment and care for patients with NCDs. Specific measures include a multi-part approach to ensuring that patients with non-communicable diseases have access to life-saving services during and after disasters. The approach of the health system should be expanded from traditional approaches to disasters and requires comprehensive planning of health care by policy makers and health professionals to develop effective strategies to enable patients to access medical, therapeutic and diagnostic services in natural disasters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elham Ghazanchaei
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
| | - Davoud Khorasani-Zavareh
- Skull Base Research Center, Loghman Hakim Hospital, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Workplace Health Promotion Research Center, Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Javad Aghazadeh-Attari
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
| | - Iraj Mohebbi
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
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Establishing the Status of Patients With Non-Communicable Diseases in Disaster: A Systematic Review. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2021; 16:783-790. [PMID: 33583461 DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2020.364] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE People with NCDs are particularly vulnerable to disasters. This research systematically reviewed reports describing studies on the status of patients with NCDs before, during and after disasters. METHOD Relevant articles published from 1997 to 2019 were collected by searching the Scopus, PubMed, and Science Direct databases. We specifically examined reports describing NCDs and including the key words 'Non-Communicable Disease and Disasters.' NCDs include cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes and cancer diseases. RESULTS The review identified 42 relevant articles. Most of the included studies were found to have described the conditions of patients with NCDs after disasters - 14 (13.3%), during disasters - 11 (26.2%), before disasters - 6 (14.3%), within all stages of disasters: before, during and after - 6 (14.3%), only during and after disasters - 4 (9.5%), and includes before and during disasters - 1 (2.4%). CONCLUSION NCDs pose major health issues in disasters. Development of strong counter measures against the interruption of treatment, as well as surveillance systems to ascertain medical needs for NCDs are necessary as preparation for future disasters.
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Verma A, Rajput R, Verma S, Balania VKB, Jangra B. Impact of lockdown in COVID 19 on glycemic control in patients with type 1 Diabetes Mellitus. Diabetes Metab Syndr 2020; 14:1213-1216. [PMID: 32679527 PMCID: PMC7357511 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.07.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 128] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Revised: 07/09/2020] [Accepted: 07/10/2020] [Indexed: 02/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS COVID 19 is a novel pandemic affecting globally. Although no reliable data suggests that patients of well controlled Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) being at increased risk of becoming severely ill with SARS-CoV2, but lockdown may impact patients with T1DM requiring regular medications and follow up. Hence this study was planned to see the impact of lockdown on glycemic control in patients with T1DM. METHODS A cross sectional study was done in T1DM patients in whom a structured questionnaire was administered on follow up within 15 days after lockdown. Data regarding hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic episodes, Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), insulin dose missed, regular glucose monitoring, dietary compliance, physical activity, hospitalization during the phase of lockdown was taken. Average blood glucose and HbA1C of lockdown phase was compared with the readings of prelockdown phase. RESULTS Out of 52 patients, 36.5% had hyperglycemic and 15.3% had hypoglycemic episodes. Insulin dose was missed in 26.9%, glucose monitoring not done routinely in 36.5% and 17.4% were not diet compliant during lockdown. Average blood glucose during lockdown phase was 276.9 ± 64.7 mg/dl as compared to 212.3 ± 57.9 mg/dl during prelockdown phase. Mean HbA1c value of lockdown (10 ± 1.5%) which was much higher that of pre lockdown (8.8 ± 1.3%) and the difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION Glycemic control of T1DM patients has worsened mainly due to non availability of insulin/glucostrips during lockdown period. There is a need for preparedness in future so that complications can be minimised.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Babita Jangra
- Department of Community Medicine, BPS, Khanpur, India
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Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Studies have shown that disasters may exacerbate the comorbidities in vulnerable populations such as those with a pre-existing chronic medical condition like diabetes. This article highlights recent studies that look at the impact of disasters on people with diabetes and also shows recent resources for consumers, health care providers, and policy makers to improve resiliency in people with diabetes. RECENT FINDINGS Recent articles have looked at the short-term impact of disasters upon people with diabetes and its comorbidities such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the triple disaster of 2011 in Japan (earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident), and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan as well as the long-term impact of disasters such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Several public and private partners have used the past and recent findings to develop resources that help consumers with diabetes and the people who care for them, prepare for a disaster BEFORE the event.
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Man RXG, Lack DA, Wyatt CE, Murray V. The effect of natural disasters on cancer care: a systematic review. Lancet Oncol 2019; 19:e482-e499. [PMID: 30191852 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(18)30412-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2018] [Revised: 05/22/2018] [Accepted: 05/24/2018] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
As the incidence of cancer and the frequency of extreme weather events rise, disaster mitigation is becoming increasingly relevant to oncology care. In this systematic Review, we aimed to investigate the effect of natural disasters on cancer care and the associated health effects on patients with cancer. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and ScienceDirect for articles published between database inception and November 12, 2016. Articles identifying the effect of natural disasters on oncology services or the associated health implications for patients with cancer were included. Only articles published in English were included. Data extraction was done by two authors independently and then verified by all authors. The effects of disaster events on oncology services, survival outcomes, and psychological issues were assessed. Of the 4593 studies identified, only 85 articles met all the eligibility criteria. Damage to infrastructure, communication systems and medication, and medical record losses substantially disrupt oncology care. The effect of extreme weather events on survival outcomes is limited to only a small number of studies, often with inadequate follow-up periods. Natural disasters cause substantial interruption to the provision of oncology care. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic Review to assess the existing evidence base on the health effects of natural disaster events on cancer care. We advocate for the consideration of patients with cancer during disaster planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ralph Xiu-Gee Man
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Chris O'Brien Lifehouse, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.
| | - David A Lack
- Emergency Department, Hervey Bay Hospital, Pialba, QLD, Australia
| | - Charlotte E Wyatt
- Dermatology Department, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Virginia Murray
- Global Disaster Risk Reduction, Public Health England, London, UK
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Slama S, Kim HJ, Roglic G, Boulle P, Hering H, Varghese C, Rasheed S, Tonelli M. Care of non-communicable diseases in emergencies. Lancet 2017; 389:326-330. [PMID: 27637675 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31404-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2015] [Revised: 08/02/2016] [Accepted: 08/09/2016] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Slim Slama
- World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | | | | | | | - Heiko Hering
- United Nations High Commission for Refugees, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Shahnawaz Rasheed
- Department of Surgery, Imperial College London, London, UK; The Royal Marsden Hospital, London, UK
| | - Marcello Tonelli
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
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Pimenta-de-Souza P, Miranda ES, Osorio-de-Castro CGS. [Preparedness of pharmaceutical assistance for disasters: a study in five Brazilian municipalities]. CIENCIA & SAUDE COLETIVA 2016; 19:3731-42. [PMID: 25184579 DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232014199.01412014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2014] [Accepted: 05/21/2014] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
A number of Brazilian municipalities have been affected by disasters in recent years. Municipal managers need to invest in preparedness to mitigate the impact of events and to restrict damages. Disaster preparedness should be conducted on various fronts, including the health sector, of which pharmaceutical services (PS) are a part. The scope of this paper is to describe and analyze PS preparedness in municipalities recently stricken by disasters. For this purpose, an investigation of a cross-sectional design involving various sources (official documents, newspaper articles, public databases and interviews with key PS informants) was conducted in five municipalities in two different regions. Analysis was based on an instrument with a logical model and indicators. Despite the fact that these municipalities are historically disaster-prone, very few measures of PS preparedness were encountered, which is clear evidence that management of PS has not been achieved. It is to be hoped that this presentation of the experiences of these municipalities might foster PS preparedness in other Brazilian municipalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Pimenta-de-Souza
- Núcleo de Assistência Farmacêutica, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio Arouca, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil,
| | - Elaine Silva Miranda
- Departamento de Farmácia e Administração Farmacêutica, Universidade Federal Fluminense
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Ryan B, Franklin RC, Burkle FM, Aitken P, Smith E, Watt K, Leggat P. Identifying and Describing the Impact of Cyclone, Storm and Flood Related Disasters on Treatment Management, Care and Exacerbations of Non-communicable Diseases and the Implications for Public Health. PLOS CURRENTS 2015; 7:ecurrents.dis.62e9286d152de04799644dcca47d9288. [PMID: 26468423 PMCID: PMC4593706 DOI: 10.1371/currents.dis.62e9286d152de04799644dcca47d9288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Over the last quarter of a century the frequency of natural disasters and the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD) across the globe have been increasing. For individuals susceptible to, or chronically experiencing, NCDs this has become a significant risk. Disasters jeopardize access to essential treatment, care, equipment, water and food, which can result in an exacerbation of existing conditions or even preventable death. Consequently, there is a need to expand the public health focus of disaster management to include NCDs. To provide a platform for this to occur, this article presents the results from a systematic review that identifies and describes the impact of cyclone, flood and storm related disasters on those susceptible to, or experiencing, NCDs. The NCDs researched were: cardiovascular diseases; cancers; chronic respiratory diseases; and diabetes. METHODS Four electronic publication databases were searched with a date limit of 31 December 2014. The data was analyzed through an aggregation of individual papers to create an overall data description. The data was then grouped by disease to describe the impact of a disaster on treatment management, exacerbation, and health care of people with NCDs. The PRISMA checklist was used to guide presentation of the research. RESULTS The review identified 48 relevant articles. All studies represented developed country data. Disasters interrupt treatment management and overall care for people with NCDs, which results in an increased risk of exacerbation of their illness or even death. The interruption may be caused by a range of factors, such as damaged transport routes, reduced health services, loss of power and evacuations. The health impact varied according to the NCD. For people with chronic respiratory diseases, a disaster increases the risk of acute exacerbation. Meanwhile, for people with cancer, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes there is an increased risk of their illness exacerbating, which can result in death. CONCLUSION Cyclone, flood and storm related disasters impact on treatment management and care for people with NCDs. Possible consequences include exacerbation of illness, complications or even death. There is now a need to expand traditional disaster approaches by public health to incorporate NCDs. This must be guided by the major NCDs identified by the World Health Organization and implemented in-line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: 2015-2030. This includes understanding all the factors that influence both direct and indirect (preventable) morbidity and mortality related to NCDs during and after disasters. Once achieved, disaster planners and public health professionals will be in a position to develop and implement effective mitigation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Ryan
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Australia; Cairns and Hinterland Hospital and Health Service, Australia
| | - Richard C Franklin
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
| | - Frederick M Burkle
- Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts; The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Peter Aitken
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Australia; School of Public Health, Queensland University of Technology, Australia
| | - Erin Smith
- School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University; College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Kerrianne Watt
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Australia; World Safety Organization Collaborating Centre for Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion
| | - Peter Leggat
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia; Faculty of Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
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Carameli KA, Eisenman DP, Blevins J, d'Angona B, Glik DC. Planning for chronic disease medications in disaster: perspectives from patients, physicians, pharmacists, and insurers. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2014; 7:257-65. [PMID: 23103395 DOI: 10.1001/dmp.2010.46] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Recent US disasters highlight the current imbalance between the high proportion of chronically ill Americans who depend on prescription medications and their lack of medication reserves for disaster preparedness. We examined barriers that Los Angeles County residents with chronic illness experience within the prescription drug procurement system to achieve recommended medication reserves. METHODS A mixed methods design included evaluation of insurance pharmacy benefits, focus group interviews with patients, and key informant interviews with physicians, pharmacists, and insurers. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Most prescriptions are dispensed as 30-day units through retail pharmacies with refills available after 75% of use, leaving a monthly medication reserve of 7 days. For patients to acquire 14- to 30-day disaster medication reserves, health professionals interviewed supported 60- to 100-day dispensing units. Barriers included restrictive insurance benefits, patients' resistance to mail order, and higher copay-ments. Physicians, pharmacists, and insurers also varied widely in their preparedness planning and collective mutual-aid plans, and most believed pharmacists had the primary responsibility for patients' medication continuity during a disaster. CONCLUSIONS To strengthen prescription drug continuity in disasters, recommendations include the following: (1) creating flexible drug-dispensing policies to help patients build reserves, (2) training professionals to inform patients about disaster planning, and (3) building collaborative partnerships among system stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kelley A Carameli
- University of California Los Angeles, School of Public Health, Los Angeles
| | - David P Eisenman
- University of California Los Angeles, Division of General Internal Medicine and Health Services Research, Los Angeles
| | - Joy Blevins
- Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Emergency Preparedness and Response Program, Los Angeles
| | - Brian d'Angona
- University of California Los Angeles, School of Public Health, Los Angeles
| | - Deborah C Glik
- University of California Los Angeles, School of Public Health, Los Angeles
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General household emergency preparedness: a comparison between veterans and nonveterans. Prehosp Disaster Med 2014; 29:134-40. [PMID: 24642181 DOI: 10.1017/s1049023x1400020x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite federal and local efforts to educate the public to prepare for major emergencies, many US households remain unprepared for such occurrences. United States Armed Forces veterans are at particular risk during public health emergencies as they are more likely than the general population to have multiple health conditions. METHODS This study compares general levels of household emergency preparedness between veterans and nonveterans by focusing on seven surrogate measures of household emergency preparedness (a 3-day supply of food, water, and prescription medications, a battery-operated radio and flashlight, a written evacuation plan, and an expressed willingness to leave the community during a mandatory evacuation). This study used data from the 2006 through 2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a state representative, random sample of adults aged 18 and older living in 14 states. RESULTS The majority of veteran and nonveteran households had a 3-day supply of food (88% vs 82%, respectively) and prescription medications (95% vs 89%, respectively), access to a working, battery-operated radio (82% vs 77%, respectively) and flashlight (97% vs 95%, respectively), and were willing to leave the community during a mandatory evacuation (91% vs 96%, respectively). These populations were far less likely to have a 3-day supply of water (61% vs 52%, respectively) and a written evacuation plan (24% vs 21%, respectively). After adjusting for various sociodemographic covariates, general health status, and disability status, households with veterans were significantly more likely than households without veterans to have 3-day supplies of food, water, and prescription medications, and a written evacuation plan; less likely to indicate that they would leave their community during a mandatory evacuation; and equally likely to have a working, battery-operated radio and flashlight. CONCLUSION These findings suggest that veteran households appear to be better prepared for emergencies than do nonveteran households, although the lower expressed likelihood of veterans households to evacuate when ordered to do so may place them at a somewhat greater risk of harm during such events. Further research should examine household preparedness among other vulnerable groups including subgroups of veteran populations and the reasons why their preparedness may differ from the general population.
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ROBINSON BRUCE, ALATAS MOHAMMADFAHMI, ROBERTSON ANDREW, STEER HENRY. Natural disasters and the lung. Respirology 2011; 16:386-95. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1440-1843.2011.01923.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment. METHODS An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims. RESULTS In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible. CONCLUSIONS An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events.
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