Using river distance and existing hydrography data can improve the geostatistical estimation of fish tissue mercury at unsampled locations

Microbial Find, Inform, and Test Model for Identifying Spatially Distributed Contamination Sources: Framework Foundation and Demonstration of Ruminant Bacteroides Abundance in River Sediments

Microbial pollution in rivers poses known ecological and health risks, yet causal and mechanistic linkages to sources remain difficult to establish. Host-associated microbial source tracking (MST) markers help to assess the microbial risks by linking hosts to contamination but do not identify the source locations. Land-use regression (LUR) models have been used to screen the source locations using spatial predictors but could be improved by characterizing transport (i.e., hauling, decay overland, and downstream). We introduce the microbial Find, Inform, and Test (FIT) framework, which expands previous LUR approaches and develops novel spatial predictor models to characterize the transported contributions. We applied FIT to characterize the sources of BoBac, a ruminant Bacteroides MST marker, quantified in riverbed sediment samples from Kewaunee County, Wisconsin. A 1 standard deviation increase in contributions from land-applied manure hauled from animal feeding operations (AFOs) was associated with a 77% (p-value <0.05) increase in the relative abundance of ruminant Bacteroides (BoBac-copies-per-16S-rRNA-copies) in the sediment. This is the first work finding an association between the upstream land-applied manure and the offsite bovine-associated fecal markers. These findings have implications for the sediment as a reservoir for microbial pollution associated with AFOs (e.g., pathogens and antibiotic-resistant bacteria). This framework and application advance statistical analysis in MST and water quality modeling more broadly.

A space-time geostatistical model for probabilistic estimation of harmful algal bloom biomass and areal extent

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in intensity worldwide, including the western basin of Lake Erie. Substantial efforts have been made to track these blooms using in situ sampling and remote sensing. However, such measurements do not fully capture HAB spatial and temporal dynamics due to the limitations of discrete shipboard sampling over large areas and the effects of clouds and winds on remote sensing estimates. To address these limitations, we develop a space-time geostatistical modeling framework for estimating HAB intensity and extent using chlorophyll a data sampled during the HAB season (June-October) from 2008 to 2017 by five independent monitoring programs. Based on the Bayesian information criterion for model selection, trend variables explain bloom northerly and easterly expansion from Maumee Bay, wind effects over depth, and variability among sampling methods. Cross validation results demonstrate that space-time kriging explains over half of the variability in daily, location-specific chlorophyll observations, on average. Conditional simulations provide, for the first time, comprehensive estimates of overall bloom biomass (based on depth-integrated concentrations) and surface areal extent with quantified uncertainties. These new estimates are contrasted with previous Lake Erie HAB monitoring studies, and deviations among estimates are explored and discussed. Overall, results highlight the importance of maintaining sufficient monitoring coverage to capture bloom dynamics, as well as the benefits of the proposed approach for synthesizing data from multiple monitoring programs to improve estimation accuracy while reducing uncertainty.

Reconstructing One Kilometre Resolution Daily Clear-Sky LST for China’s Landmass Using the BME Method

The land surface temperature (LST) is a key parameter used to characterize the interaction between land and the atmosphere. Therefore, obtaining highly accurate, spatially consistent and temporally continuous LSTs in large areas is the basis of many studies. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST product is commonly used to achieve this. However, it has many missing values caused by clouds and other factors. The current gap-filling methods need to be improved when applied to large areas. In this study, we used the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method, which considers spatial and temporal correlation, and takes multiple regression results of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), longitude and latitude as soft data to reconstruct space-complete daily clear-sky LSTs with a 1 km resolution for China’s landmass in 2015. The average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of this method was 1.6 K for the daytime and 1.2 K for the nighttime when we simultaneously covered more than 10,000 verification points, including blocks that were continuous in space, and the average RMSE of a single discrete verification point for 365 days was 0.4 K for the daytime and 0.3 K for the nighttime when we covered four discrete points. Urban and snow land cover types have a higher accuracy than forests and grasslands, and the accuracy is higher in winter than in summer. The high accuracy and great ability of this method to capture extreme values in urban areas can help improve urban heat island research. This method can also be extended to other study areas, other time periods, and the estimation of other geographical attribute values. How to effectively convert clear-sky LST into real LST requires further research.

Geostatistical Prediction of Microbial Water Quality Throughout a Stream Network Using Meteorology, Land Cover, and Spatiotemporal Autocorrelation

Predictive modeling is promising as an inexpensive tool to assess water quality. We developed geostatistical predictive models of microbial water quality that empirically modeled spatiotemporal autocorrelation in measured fecal coliform (FC) bacteria concentrations to improve prediction. We compared five geostatistical models featuring different autocorrelation structures, fit to 676 observations from 19 locations in North Carolina's Jordan Lake watershed using meteorological and land cover predictor variables. Though stream distance metrics (with and without flow-weighting) failed to improve prediction over the Euclidean distance metric, incorporating temporal autocorrelation substantially improved prediction over the space-only models. We predicted FC throughout the stream network daily for one year, designating locations "impaired", "unimpaired", or "unassessed" if the probability of exceeding the state standard was ≥90%, ≤10%, or >10% but <90%, respectively. We could assign impairment status to more of the stream network on days any FC were measured, suggesting frequent sample-based monitoring remains necessary, though implementing spatiotemporal predictive models may reduce the number of concurrent sampling locations required to adequately assess water quality. Together, these results suggest that prioritizing sampling at different times and conditions using geographically sparse monitoring networks is adequate to build robust and informative geostatistical models of water quality impairment.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy space/time estimation of surface water chloride in Maryland using river distances

Widespread contamination of surface water chloride is an emerging environmental concern. Consequently accurate and cost-effective methods are needed to estimate chloride along all river miles of potentially contaminated watersheds. Here we introduce a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) space/time geostatistical estimation framework that uses river distances, and we compare it with Euclidean BME to estimate surface water chloride from 2005 to 2014 in the Gunpowder-Patapsco, Severn, and Patuxent subbasins in Maryland. River BME improves the cross-validation R2 by 23.67% over Euclidean BME, and river BME maps are significantly different than Euclidean BME maps, indicating that it is important to use river BME maps to assess water quality impairment. The river BME maps of chloride concentration show wide contamination throughout Baltimore and Columbia-Ellicott cities, the disappearance of a clean buffer separating these two large urban areas, and the emergence of multiple localized pockets of contamination in surrounding areas. The number of impaired river miles increased by 0.55% per year in 2005-2009 and by 1.23% per year in 2011-2014, corresponding to a marked acceleration of the rate of impairment. Our results support the need for control measures and increased monitoring of unassessed river miles.

Spatial analysis of Cd and Pb in the Pike (Esox lucius) from Western Anzali wetlands of Iran

Geostatistical studies are used to estimate pollution burden in aquatic ecosystems and to plan large-scale control programs to protect these environments. Geostatistical studies allow us to predicted pollutant concentrations for areas that have not been sampled. This is done by taking into account the spatial correlations between estimated and sampled points and by minimizing the variance of estimation error. The use of geostatistical techniques in biomonitoring of fish species can illuminate extent and source of pollution, thereby providing an effective tool for developing intervention strategies to protect such environments. This study investigates the spatial distribution patterns of cadmium and lead in the Pike (Esox lucius). Fish were captured in the western parts of the Anzali wetlands located on the Caspian Sea in Iran. The muscle tissue of Anzali Pike had 5 ± 0.25 and 168 ± 18.4 (ng/g dw) cadmium and lead, respectively. Positive relationships were detected between Pike's length and weight (r = 0.85, p < 0.05), length and age (r = 0.35, p < 0.05), and muscle cadmium and lead (r = 0.45, p < 0.05). By contrast, there was a negative relationship between lead levels and weight in Pike (r = -0.36, p < 0.05). For both metals, the resulting metal concentration maps indicated higher pollutant concentrations in the southeast parts of the study area. Considerable boat traffic activity and agricultural activity contribute to the pollution in these areas, undermining the integrity of local habitat for fish survival and reproduction.