Climate penalty for shifting shipping to the Arctic

Valuating environmental impacts from ship emissions - The marine perspective

Shipping is an activity responsible for a range of different pressures affecting the marine environment, air quality and human welfare. The methodology on how ship emissions impact air quality and human health are comparatively well established and used in cost-benefit analysis of policy proposals. However, the knowledge base is not the same for impacts on the marine environment and a coherent environmental and socio-economic impact assessment of shipping has not yet been made. This risk policies to be biased towards air pollution whilst trading off impacts on the marine environment. The aim of the current study was to develop a comprehensive framework on how different pressures from shipping degrade marine ecosystems, air quality and human welfare. A secondary aim was to quantify the societal damage costs of shipping due to the degradation of human welfare in a Baltic Sea case study. By adding knowledge from marine ecotoxicology and life-cycle analysis to the existing knowledge from climate, air pollution and environmental economics we were able to establish a more comprehensive conceptual framework that allows for valuation of environmental impacts from shipping, but it still omits economic values for biological pollution, littering and underwater noise. The results for the Baltic Sea case showed the total annual damage costs of Baltic Sea shipping to be 2.9 billion €₂₀₁₀ (95% CI 2.0-3.9 billion €₂₀₁₀). The damage costs due to impacts on marine eutrophication (768 million €₂₀₁₀) and marine ecotoxicity (582 million €₂₀₁₀) were in the same range as the total damage costs associated with reduced air quality (816 million €₂₀₁₀) and climate change (737 million €₂₀₁₀). The framework and the results from the current study can be used in future socio-economic assessments of ship emissions to prioritize cost efficient measures. The framework can be used globally but the damage costs presented on the marine environment are restricted to emissions on the Baltic Sea and Kattegat region as they are based on willingness to pay studies conducted on citizens around the Baltic Sea where eutrophication and emissions of chemicals are particularly threats to the state of the Baltic Sea.

Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping

As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.

Intensification of ice nucleation observed in ocean ship emissions

Shipping contributes primary and secondary emission products to the atmospheric aerosol burden that have implications for climate, clouds, and air quality from regional to global scales. In this study we exam the potential impact of ship emissions with regards to ice nucleating particles. Particles that nucleate ice are known to directly affect precipitation and cloud microphysical properties. We have collected and analyzed particles for their ice nucleating capacity from a shipping channel outside a large Scandinavia port. We observe that ship plumes amplify the background levels of ice nucleating particles and discuss the larger scale implications. The measured ice nucleating particles suggest that the observed amplification is most likely important in regions with low levels of background particles. The Arctic, which as the sea ice pack declines is opening to transit and natural resource exploration and exploitation at an ever increasing rate, is highlighted as such a region.

Local Arctic air pollution: Sources and impacts

Local emissions of Arctic air pollutants and their impacts on climate, ecosystems and health are poorly understood. Future increases due to Arctic warming or economic drivers may put additional pressures on the fragile Arctic environment already affected by mid-latitude air pollution. Aircraft data were collected, for the first time, downwind of shipping and petroleum extraction facilities in the European Arctic. Data analysis reveals discrepancies compared to commonly used emission inventories, highlighting missing emissions (e.g. drilling rigs) and the intermittent nature of certain emissions (e.g. flaring, shipping). Present-day shipping/petroleum extraction emissions already appear to be impacting pollutant (ozone, aerosols) levels along the Norwegian coast and are estimated to cool and warm the Arctic climate, respectively. Future increases in shipping may lead to short-term (long-term) warming (cooling) due to reduced sulphur (CO₂) emissions, and be detrimental to regional air quality (ozone). Further quantification of local Arctic emission impacts is needed.

A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO2 emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016-2030 is about 60billionton (60Mg) CO2e. A CO2 tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO2 emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO2. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03±0.02°C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO2 emissions.

Source Contributions to Wintertime Elemental and Organic Carbon in the Western Arctic Based on Radiocarbon and Tracer Apportionment

To quantify the contributions of fossil and biomass sources to the wintertime Arctic aerosol burden source apportionment is reported for elemental (EC) and organic carbon (OC) fractions of six PM10 samples collected during a wintertime (2012-2013) campaign in Barrow, AK. Radiocarbon apportionment of EC indicates that fossil sources contribute an average of 68 ± 9% (0.01-0.07 μg m(-3)) in midwinter decreasing to 49 ± 6% (0.02 μg m(-3)) in late winter. The mean contribution of fossil sources to OC for the campaign was stable at 38 ± 8% (0.04-0.32 μg m(-3)). Samples were also analyzed for organic tracers, including levoglucosan, for use in a chemical mass balance (CMB) source apportionment model. The CMB model was able to apportion 24-53% and 99% of the OC and EC burdens, respectively, during the campaign, with fossil OC contributions ranging from 25 to 74% (0.02-0.09 μg m(-3)) and fossil EC contributions ranging from 73 to 94% (0.03-0.07 μg m(-3)). Back trajectories identified two major wintertime source regions to Barrow: the Russian and North American Arctic. Atmospheric lifetimes of levoglucosan, ranging from 50 to 320 h, revealed variability in wintertime atmospheric processing of this biomass burning tracer. This study allows for unambiguous apportionment of EC to fossil fuel and biomass combustion sources and intercomparison with CMB modeling.