Hierarchical Multinomial Modeling Approaches: An Application to Prospective Memory and Working Memory

Meta-prospective memory accuracy in young adults with and without depressive symptoms

Prospective memory (PM) is the ability to remember an intention in the future. Individuals with depression are candidates for PM failures, resulting in detrimental consequences, such as forgetting to take a medication or implement therapeutic techniques; inaccurate assessments of one's PM abilities can exacerbate these issues. The current study examined if appraisals about one's prospective memory (meta-PM) performance differs between healthy and depressed adults. Data were gathered from 137 adults and included self-reported depression, PM beliefs, objective PM, and assessment of executive functions (EFs). Participants were separated into depressed/healthy categories based on a self-report measure. There was a non-significant correlation between self-reported PM and objective PM for both depressed (r = .06, p = .61) and healthy (r = .08, p = .52) groups, suggesting both groups had inaccurate meta-PM. There were non-significant differences in meta-PM between these groups (Fisher's Z = -0.09, p = .93), but exploratory gender analyses revealed women's meta-PM was significantly less accurate than men's. Women had higher reports of depression and PM complaints compared to men. This study lends evidence that depression is not necessarily related to worse meta-PM accuracy, despite depression's association with memory complaints, and that women are at greater risk for inaccurate meta-PM.

Prospective memories in the wild: Predicting memory for intentions in natural environments

Prospective memory, the ability to remember an intention at the appropriate future moment, is often investigated in the laboratory to maximize experimental control. However, demands of laboratory prospective memory tasks only partly map onto everyday demands. Therefore, it is an open question whether factors which predict prospective memory in the laboratory also predict prospective memory in the real world. We combined diary and ecological momentary assessment methods to investigate which factors, that have been repeatedly shown to predict prospective memory performance in laboratory tasks, are related to the fulfillment of everyday intentions. Results showed that substantial portions of variance in real-world prospective memory performance could be explained with the factors found to be significant in laboratory. The most powerful predictors were perceived intention importance, the use of external memory aids, delay interval, and conscientiousness. However, some meaningful laboratory predictors (e.g., working memory) played only a minor role in natural environments and a large portion of the variance in everyday intention fulfillment remained unexplained. The results substantially extend the understanding of conditions and personality variables most conducive to remembering intentions, but they also suggest that additional factors influencing real-world prospective memory remain to be discovered.

Individual differences in working memory capacity predict benefits to memory from intention offloading

Research suggests that individuals with lower working memory have difficulty remembering to fulfil delayed intentions. The current study examined whether the ability to offload intentions onto the environment mitigated these deficits. Participants (N = 268) completed three versions of a delayed intention task with and without the use of reminders, along with three measures of working memory capacity. Results showed that individuals with higher working memory fulfilled more intentions when having to rely on their own memory, but this difference was eliminated when offloading was permitted. Individuals with lower working memory chose to offload more often, suggesting that they were less willing to engage in effortful maintenance of internal representations when given the option. Working memory was not associated with metacognitive confidence or optimal offloading choices based on point value. These findings suggest offloading may help circumvent capacity limitations associated with maintaining and remembering delayed intentions.

Nighttime sleep benefits the prospective component of prospective memory

Studies suggest that sleep benefits event-based prospective memory, which involves carrying out intentions when particular events occur. Prospective memory has a prospective component (remembering that one has an intention), and a retrospective component (remembering when to carry it out). As effects of sleep on retrospective memory are well established, the effect of sleep on prospective memory may thus be due exclusively to an effect of sleep on its retrospective component. Therefore, the authors investigated whether nighttime sleep improves the prospective component of prospective memory, or a retrospective component, or both. In a first session, participants performed an event-based prospective-memory task (that was embedded in an ongoing task) 3 minutes after forming an intention and, in a second session, 12 hours after forming an intention. The sessions were separated by either nighttime sleep or daytime wakefulness. The authors disentangled prospective-memory performance into its retrospective and prospective components via multinomial processing tree modeling. There was no effect of sleep on the retrospective component, which may have been due to a time-of-day effect. The prospective component, which is the component unique to prospective memory, declined less strongly after a retention interval filled with sleep as compared with a retention interval filled with wakefulness. A hybrid interaction suggested that refreshed attention after sleep may account for this effect, but did not support the consolidation of the association between the intention and its appropriate context as a mechanism driving the effect.

How Does Performing Demanding Activities Influence Prospective Memory? A Systematic Review

This paper is the first systematic review on the role of ongoing task load in prospective remembering, which was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA). Forty articles published between 1995 and 2020 were included. They evaluated prospective memory (PM) performance (i.e., the ability to remember to execute a delayed intention) in adult samples aged between 19 and 50 years old when the PM cue appeared under cognitively demanding conditions. The results revealed that people are more likely to fail to remember to perform a delayed intention at the appropriate circumstances or time in the future when their cognitive resources are taxed by demanding ongoing activities. We conclude the review by highlighting that the degree of working memory and executive resources seems to account for some of the discrepant findings and by proposing directions for future research.

When we must forget: the effect of cognitive load on prospective memory commission errors

Recent studies consistently show that prospective memory (PM) intentions are not always deactivated when no-longer needed and might be erroneously performed upon encountering the once relevant cue - termed PM commission errors. However, empirical evidence on the potential mechanisms that might lead to this kind of memory failure remains mostly unexplored. This study aimed to investigate the influence of the ongoing task demands on PM deactivation of non-performed intentions. Younger adults, except for those in the no-PM condition, were asked to perform a PM task and were then told that the intention was finished. Later, they perform a lexical decision task with some trials containing (irrelevant) PM cues while simultaneously carrying out a counting recall task with two levels of difficulty. The results showed a higher risk of PM commission errors under moderate cognitive load (74%) as compared to the no-load condition (40%). Results also show that commission error risk did not increase in the high-load (54%) compared with the moderate-load condition. Furthermore, comparisons of the ongoign task performance between the no-PM condition and the other conditions with a PM task requirement support that commission errors might arise from a spontaneous PM retrieval. The implications of these findings are discussed within the dual-mechanisms account.

Are subjective sleepiness and sleep quality related to prospective memory?

Event-based prospective memory (PM) involves carrying out intentions when specific events occur and is ubiquitous in everyday life. It consists of a prospective component (remembering that something must be done) and a retrospective component (remembering what must be done and when). Subjective sleep-related variables may be related to PM performance and an attention-demanding prospective component. In two studies, the relationship of subjective sleepiness and subjective sleep quality with both PM components was investigated with a laboratory PM task and separation of its components via Bayesian multinomial processing tree modeling. In Study 1, neither component of PM was related to naturally occurring subjective sleepiness or sleep quality. In Study 2, sleepiness was experimentally increased by placing some participants in a supine body posture. Testing participants in upright vs. supine posture affected neither PM component. However, body posture moderated the relationship between subjective sleep quality and the prospective component: In supine posture, subjective sleep quality tended to be more positively related to the prospective component. Overall, neither subjective sleepiness nor subjective sleep quality alone was related to PM.

Rumination and Impaired Prospective Memory

Prospective memory (PM), remembering to remember, is crucial to everyday functioning. Understanding factors associated with PM impairments is thus important. One likely factor is rumination: a common cognitive process comprising repetitive self-focused thoughts. We investigated whether rumination is associated with impaired PM, and whether any associated impairment is exacerbated with negative stimuli. A sentence-rating task with sentences varying in valence was used with embedded PM cues in a non-clinical sample (N = 60). State rumination, two trait rumination subtypes (reflective pondering and brooding), and mood were measured in relation to PM cue detection and response times. Results showed that state rumination was associated with impaired PM cue detection and slower response times to PM cues embedded in negative sentences (not positive or neutral). Trait brooding (not reflective pondering) was associated with slower PM response times. These findings indicate that state rumination and trait brooding are associated with dissociable PM impairments.

Mild cognitive impairment and prospective memory: translating the evidence into neuropsychological practice

OBJECTIVE

There has been a recent rapid development of research characterizing prospective memory performance in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in older age. However, this body of literature remains largely separated from routine clinical practice in neuropsychology. Furthermore, there is emerging evidence of effective interventions to improve prospective memory performance. Therefore, our objective in this article was to offer a clinical neuropsychological perspective on the existing research in order to facilitate the translation of the evidence-base into clinical practice.

METHOD

By conducting a critical review of the existing research related to prospective memory and MCI, we highlight how this data can be introduced into clinical practice, either within diagnostic assessment or clinical management.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective memory is impaired in older adults with MCI, with a pattern of performance that helps with differential diagnosis from healthy aging. Clinical neuropsychologists are encouraged to add prospective memory assessment to their toolbox for diagnostic evaluation of clients with MCI. Preliminary findings of prospective memory interventions in MCI are promising, but more work is required to determine how different approaches translate to increasing independence in everyday life.

TreeBUGS: An R package for hierarchical multinomial-processing-tree modeling

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are a class of measurement models that account for categorical data by assuming a finite number of underlying cognitive processes. Traditionally, data are aggregated across participants and analyzed under the assumption of independently and identically distributed observations. Hierarchical Bayesian extensions of MPT models explicitly account for participant heterogeneity by assuming that the individual parameters follow a continuous hierarchical distribution. We provide an accessible introduction to hierarchical MPT modeling and present the user-friendly and comprehensive R package TreeBUGS, which implements the two most important hierarchical MPT approaches for participant heterogeneity-the beta-MPT approach (Smith & Batchelder, Journal of Mathematical Psychology 54:167-183, 2010) and the latent-trait MPT approach (Klauer, Psychometrika 75:70-98, 2010). TreeBUGS reads standard MPT model files and obtains Markov-chain Monte Carlo samples that approximate the posterior distribution. The functionality and output are tailored to the specific needs of MPT modelers and provide tests for the homogeneity of items and participants, individual and group parameter estimates, fit statistics, and within- and between-subjects comparisons, as well as goodness-of-fit and summary plots. We also propose and implement novel statistical extensions to include continuous and discrete predictors (as either fixed or random effects) in the latent-trait MPT model.

Item-method directed forgetting and working memory capacity: A hierarchical multinomial modeling approach

Intentional forgetting of information that has recently been encoded is regarded an active and adaptive process and is widely studied using the item-method or the list-method directed forgetting (DF) paradigm. In the present research, we tested whether inter-individual differences in working-memory capacity (WMC), that have been identified as a relevant predictor of DF within the list method, are also related to stronger DF effects within the item method. Furthermore, we investigated relationships between WMC and item-method DF at different processing stages by applying the multinomial storage–retrieval model hierarchically to our data. Results showed that individuals with high WMC are better able to store to-be-remembered information than individuals with low WMC, whereas WMC was not related to retrieval of to-be-remembered information or to either storage or retrieval of to-be-forgotten information. Implications for theoretical accounts of item-method DF are discussed.