1
|
Espunyes J, Serrano E, Chaves S, Bartolomé J, Menaut P, Albanell E, Marchand P, Foulché K, Garel M. Positive effect of spring advance on the diet quality of an alpine herbivore. Integr Zool 2021; 17:78-92. [PMID: 34223702 DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Changes in vegetation phenology related to global warming are having alarming effects on the life history traits of many herbivore species. Such changes are particularly critical in alpine ecosystems, where strong climate limitations on plant growth make seasonal synchronization imperative for the growth, reproduction and survival of herbivores. However, despite the pivotal role of resource-use strategies on the performances of such species, few studies have explicitly assessed the mechanistic impact of climate change on their diets. We aimed to fill this gap by studying the effect of spring onset on the dietary composition and quality of a medium-size alpine herbivore while considering density-dependent processes and age- and sex-specific differences in foraging behavior. Using an exceptional, long-term (24 years) direct individual-based dietary monitoring of a Pyrenean chamois population (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica), we showed that ongoing earlier onsets of spring are leading to an earlier access to high-quality forage and therefore a higher diet quality at a fixed date, without apparent changes in diet composition. We also showed that at high densities, intraspecific competition reduced diet quality by driving animals to feed more on woody plants and less on nutritious forbs and graminoids. By assessing the mechanistic effects of global warming on the dietary patterns of species at the center of trophic networks, this study is an essential step for predictive models aiming at understanding the ongoing ecosystem consequences of the global climatic crisis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Johan Espunyes
- Wildlife Ecology and Health group (WE&H) i Servei d'Ecopatologia de la Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.,Wildlife Conservation Medicine Research Group (WildCoM), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.,Research and Conservation Department, Zoo de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Emmanuel Serrano
- Wildlife Ecology and Health group (WE&H) i Servei d'Ecopatologia de la Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Sara Chaves
- Wildlife Ecology and Health group (WE&H) i Servei d'Ecopatologia de la Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.,Group of Ruminant Research (G2R), Department of Animal and Food Science, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Jordi Bartolomé
- Group of Ruminant Research (G2R), Department of Animal and Food Science, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Pierre Menaut
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction Régionale Occitanie, Service d'Appui aux Acteurs et Mobilisation du Territoire, Villeneuve de Rivière, France
| | - Elena Albanell
- Group of Ruminant Research (G2R), Department of Animal and Food Science, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Pascal Marchand
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction de la Recherche et Appui Scientifique, Unité Ongulés Sauvages, Gières, France
| | - Kévin Foulché
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction Régionale Occitanie, Service d'Appui aux Acteurs et Mobilisation du Territoire, Villeneuve de Rivière, France
| | - Mathieu Garel
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction de la Recherche et Appui Scientifique, Unité Ongulés Sauvages, Gières, France
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Prodon R, Geniez P, Cheylan M, Besnard A. Amphibian and reptile phenology: the end of the warming hiatus and the influence of the NAO in the North Mediterranean. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2020; 64:423-432. [PMID: 31734817 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01827-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2019] [Revised: 10/24/2019] [Accepted: 10/26/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
In the south of France, the so-called climate hiatus from 1998 to 2013 was associated with a late winter cooling which has affected the phenology of several reptiles and amphibian species, delaying their dates of first appearances in spring. This episode has been related to a period of frequently negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi). The recent increase of this index after this episode marks the end of the "hiatus" and provides an opportunity to verify the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the fauna of the North Mediterranean region. Most of the emergence dates of amphibians and reptiles in spring have rapidly advanced from 1983 to 1997 and then receded or stabilized from 1998 to 2010. They began to advance again since 2010. These phenological changes covary with the temperature of February-March in the study area, which is itself related to the variations of the NAO index. These changes confirm the influence of the NAO on the phenology of terrestrial organisms in northern Mediterranean where its influence is sometimes assumed to be attenuated.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Roger Prodon
- EPHE, UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS, IRD, Biogéographie et Écologie des Vertébrés, PSL Research University, University of Montpellier, Paul Valéry University, SupAgro, INRA, 34293, Montpellier, France.
| | - Philippe Geniez
- EPHE, UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS, IRD, Biogéographie et Écologie des Vertébrés, PSL Research University, University of Montpellier, Paul Valéry University, SupAgro, INRA, 34293, Montpellier, France
| | - Marc Cheylan
- EPHE, UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS, IRD, Biogéographie et Écologie des Vertébrés, PSL Research University, University of Montpellier, Paul Valéry University, SupAgro, INRA, 34293, Montpellier, France
| | - Aurélien Besnard
- EPHE, UMR 5175 CEFE, CNRS, IRD, Biogéographie et Écologie des Vertébrés, PSL Research University, University of Montpellier, Paul Valéry University, SupAgro, INRA, 34293, Montpellier, France
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Omrani NE, Ogawa F, Nakamura H, Keenlyside N, Lubis SW, Matthes K. Key Role of the Ocean Western Boundary currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate. Sci Rep 2019; 9:3014. [PMID: 30816190 PMCID: PMC6395655 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-39392-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2018] [Accepted: 01/11/2019] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
The individual impact of North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Western Boundary Currents (OWBCs) on the tropospheric circulation has recently been studied in depth. However, their simultaneous role in shaping the hemisphere-scale wintertime troposphere/stratosphere-coupled circulation and its variability have not been considered. Through semi-idealized Atmospheric General-Circulation-Model experiments, we show that the North Atlantic and Pacific OWBCs jointly maintain and shape the wintertime hemispheric circulation and its leading mode of variability Northern Annular Mode (NAM). The OWBCs energize baroclinic waves that reinforce quasi-annular hemispheric structure in the tropospheric eddy-driven jetstreams and NAM variability. Without the OWBCs, the wintertime NAM variability is much weaker and its impact on the continental and maritime surface climate is largely insignificant. Atmospheric energy redistribution caused by the OWBCs acts to damp the near-surface atmospheric baroclinicity and compensates the associated oceanic meridional energy transport. Furthermore, the OWBCs substantially weaken the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex by enhancing the upward planetary wave propagation, and thereby affecting both stratospheric and tropospheric NAM-annularity. Whereas the overall impact of the extra-tropical OWBCs on the stratosphere results mainly from the Pacific, the impact on the troposphere results from both the Pacific and Atlantic OWBCs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nour-Eddine Omrani
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes centre for climate research, Bergen, Norway.
| | - Fumiaki Ogawa
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes centre for climate research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Hisashi Nakamura
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.,Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Noel Keenlyside
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes centre for climate research, Bergen, Norway.,Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Sandro W Lubis
- Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Katja Matthes
- Research Division Ocean Circulation and Climate, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany.,Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Haest B, Hüppop O, Bairlein F. Challenging a 15-year-old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:1523-1537. [PMID: 29251800 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2017] [Revised: 11/17/2017] [Accepted: 12/08/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta-analysis, and a meta-analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short- and long-distance migrants from the constant-effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = -0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%-6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = -0.13, SE = 0.019).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Birgen Haest
- Institute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Ommo Hüppop
- Institute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Franz Bairlein
- Institute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Inter-annual and decadal changes in teleconnections drive continental-scale synchronization of tree reproduction. Nat Commun 2017; 8:2205. [PMID: 29263383 PMCID: PMC5738406 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02348-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2017] [Accepted: 11/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate teleconnections drive highly variable and synchronous seed production (masting) over large scales. Disentangling the effect of high-frequency (inter-annual variation) from low-frequency (decadal trends) components of climate oscillations will improve our understanding of masting as an ecosystem process. Using century-long observations on masting (the MASTREE database) and data on the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we show that in the last 60 years both high-frequency summer and spring NAO, and low-frequency winter NAO components are highly correlated to continent-wide masting in European beech and Norway spruce. Relationships are weaker (non-stationary) in the early twentieth century. This finding improves our understanding on how climate variation affects large-scale synchronization of tree masting. Moreover, it supports the connection between proximate and ultimate causes of masting: indeed, large-scale features of atmospheric circulation coherently drive cues and resources for masting, as well as its evolutionary drivers, such as pollination efficiency, abundance of seed dispersers, and natural disturbance regimes.
Collapse
|
6
|
Savard JPL, Cousineau M, Drolet B. Exploratory analysis of correlates of the abundance of rusty blackbirds (Euphagus carolinus) during fall migration. ECOSCIENCE 2015. [DOI: 10.2980/18-4-3401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
|
7
|
Rozas V, Lamas S, García-González I. Differential tree-growth responses to local and large-scale climatic variation in twoPinusand twoQuercusspecies in northwest Spain. ECOSCIENCE 2015. [DOI: 10.2980/16-3-3212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
|
8
|
Bowler B, Krebs C, O'Donoghue M, Hone J. Climatic amplification of the numerical response of a predator population to its prey. Ecology 2014; 95:1153-61. [PMID: 25000747 DOI: 10.1890/13-0848.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
We evaluated evidence of an effect of climate on the numerical response of a coyote (Canis latrans) population to their keystone prey, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), in a Canadian boreal forest. Six a priori hypotheses of the coyote numerical response were developed that postulated linear, nonlinear, additive, and interactive effects of prey and climate. Model selection procedures showed the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had the strongest effect on the coyote numerical response via its interaction with snowshoe hare density, while other large-scale climate indices had very weak effects. For a given snowshoe hare density, a negative value of the NAO amplified the abundance of coyote and a positive NAO decreased coyote abundance. We hypothesize that the coyote numerical response is ultimately determined by the coyote functional response influenced by winter conditions determined by the NAO.
Collapse
|
9
|
Thogmartin WE, McKann PC. Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats. J Mammal 2014. [DOI: 10.1644/13-mamm-a-098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
|
10
|
Brown I. Influence of seasonal weather and climate variability on crop yields in Scotland. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2013; 57:605-614. [PMID: 22960748 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0588-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2011] [Revised: 08/14/2012] [Accepted: 08/21/2012] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
The climatic sensitivity of four important agriculture crops (wheat, barley, oats, potatoes) in a northern temperate bioclimatic region is investigated using national-level yield data for 1963-2005. The climate variables include monthly and annual meteorological data, derived bioclimatic metrics, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Statistical analysis shows that significant relationships between yield and climate vary depending on the crop type and month but highlight the influence of precipitation (negative correlation) and sunshine duration (positive correlation) rather than temperature. Soil moisture deficit is shown to be a particular useful indicator of yield with drier summers providing the best yields for Scotland as a whole. It is also tentatively inferred that the sensitivity of these crops, particularly wheat and barley, to soil moisture deficits has increased in recent years. This suggests that improved crop yields are optimised for dry sunny years despite the continued prevalence of considerable inter-annual variability in seasonal weather.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Iain Brown
- The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK.
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Korpela K, Delgado M, Henttonen H, Korpimäki E, Koskela E, Ovaskainen O, Pietiäinen H, Sundell J, Yoccoz NG, Huitu O. Nonlinear effects of climate on boreal rodent dynamics: mild winters do not negate high-amplitude cycles. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2013; 19:697-710. [PMID: 23504828 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2012] [Accepted: 11/10/2012] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Small rodents are key species in many ecosystems. In boreal and subarctic environments, their importance is heightened by pronounced multiannual population cycles. Alarmingly, the previously regular rodent cycles appear to be collapsing simultaneously in many areas. Climate change, particularly decreasing snow quality or quantity in winter, is hypothesized as a causal factor, but the evidence is contradictory. Reliable analysis of population dynamics and the influence of climate thereon necessitate spatially and temporally extensive data. We combined data on vole abundances and climate, collected at 33 locations throughout Finland from 1970 to 2011, to test the hypothesis that warming winters are causing a disappearance of multiannual vole cycles. We predicted that vole population dynamics exhibit geographic and temporal variation associated with variation in climate; reduced cyclicity should be observed when and where winter weather has become milder. We found that the temporal patterns in cyclicity varied between climatically different regions: a transient reduction in cycle amplitude in the coldest region, low-amplitude cycles or irregular dynamics in the climatically intermediate regions, and strengthening cyclicity in the warmest region. Our results did not support the hypothesis that mild winters are uniformly leading to irregular dynamics in boreal vole populations. Long and cold winters were neither a prerequisite for high-amplitude multiannual cycles, nor were mild winters with reduced snow cover associated with reduced winter growth rates. Population dynamics correlated more strongly with growing season than with winter conditions. Cyclicity was weakened by increasing growing season temperatures in the cold, but strengthened in the warm regions. High-amplitude multiannual vole cycles emerge in two climatic regimes: a winter-driven cycle in cold, and a summer-driven cycle in warm climates. Finally, we show that geographic climatic gradients alone may not reliably predict biological responses to climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Katri Korpela
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, PO Box 35, FI-40014, Finland.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
12
|
Dippner JW, Kornilovs G, Junker K. A multivariate Baltic Sea environmental index. AMBIO 2012; 41:699-708. [PMID: 22430308 PMCID: PMC3472018 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2011] [Revised: 08/05/2011] [Accepted: 02/18/2012] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joachim W. Dippner
- />Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestr. 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
| | - Georgs Kornilovs
- />Fish Resources Research Department, Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment, Daugavgrivas 8, Riga, 1048 Latvia
| | - Karin Junker
- />Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestr. 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Veeroja R, Kirk A, Tilgar V, Tõnisson J. Winter climate, age, and population density affect the timing of conception in female moose (Alces alces). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1007/s13364-012-0106-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
|
14
|
Nielsen A, Yoccoz NG, Steinheim G, Storvik GO, Rekdal Y, Angeloff M, Pettorelli N, Holand Ø, Mysterud A. Are responses of herbivores to environmental variability spatially consistent in alpine ecosystems? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2012; 18:3050-3062. [PMID: 28741831 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02733.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2012] [Accepted: 04/17/2012] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Animal responses to global climate variation might be spatially inconsistent. This may arise from spatial variation in factors limiting populations' growth or from differences in the links between global climate patterns and ecologically relevant local climate variation. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a spatially consistent relation to temperature, but inconsistent spatial relation to snow depth in Scandinavia. Furthermore, there are multiple mechanistic ways by which climate may limit animal populations, involving both direct effects through thermoregulation and indirect pathways through trophic interactions. It is conceptually appealing to directly model the predicted mechanistic links. This includes the use of climate variables mimicking such interactions, for example, to use growing degree days (GDD) as a proxy for plant growth rather than average monthly temperature. Using a unique database of autumn body mass of 83331 domestic lambs from the period 1992-2007 in four alpine ranges in Norway, we demonstrate the utility of hierarchical, mechanistic path models fitted using a Bayesian approach to analyse explicitly predicted relationships among environmental variables and between lamb body mass and the environmental variables. We found large spatial variation in strength of responses of autumn lamb body mass to the NAO, to a proxy for plant growth in spring (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) and effects even differed in direction to local summer climate. Average local temperature outperformed GDD as a predictor of the NDVI, whereas the NAO index in two areas outperformed local weather variables as a predictor of lamb body mass, despite the weaker mechanistic link. Our study highlights that spatial variation in strength of herbivore responses may arise from several processes. Furthermore, mechanistically more appealing measures do not always increase predictive power due to scale of measurement and since global measures may provide more relevant "weather packages" for larger scales.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anders Nielsen
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, NO-0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, NO-9037, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Geir Steinheim
- Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Box 5003, NO-1432, Ås, Norway
| | - Geir O Storvik
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, NO-0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Yngve Rekdal
- Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, P.O. Box 115, NO-1431, Ås, Norway
| | - Michael Angeloff
- Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, P.O. Box 115, NO-1431, Ås, Norway
| | - Nathalie Pettorelli
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regents Park, NW1 4RY, London, UK
| | - Øystein Holand
- Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Box 5003, NO-1432, Ås, Norway
| | - Atle Mysterud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, NO-0316, Oslo, Norway
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
White KS, Pendleton GW, Crowley D, Griese HJ, Hundertmark KJ, Mcdonough T, Nichols L, Robus M, Smith CA, Schoen JW. Mountain goat survival in coastal Alaska: Effects of age, sex, and climate. J Wildl Manage 2011. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
|
16
|
Yom-Tov Y, Kvam T, Wiig Ø. Lynx body size in Norway is related to its main prey (Roe deer) density, climate, and latitude. AMBIO 2011; 40:43-51. [PMID: 21404822 PMCID: PMC3357722 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-010-0070-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2010] [Accepted: 06/15/2010] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
We studied the effect of various factors on body size variation of the Eurasian lynx in Norway, using data from 374 lynx collected between 1960 and 1976 and whose locality of capture, year of birth, sex, and age were known. Body size of lynx in Norway was mainly affected by sex and age. Female skull size (and by implication body size) was also positively affected by the availability of its main prey (roe deer) and by latitude, and negatively by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Male size was not affected by any of the environmental factors examined. We interpret the effects of NAO and latitude on body size through their effect on the local climate and particularly snow conditions. We suggest that females are more sensitive to environmental factors than males.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yoram Yom-Tov
- Department of Zoology, Tel Aviv University, 69978 Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Tor Kvam
- Nord-Trøndelag University College, Servicebox 2501, 7729 Steinkjer, Norway
| | - Øystein Wiig
- National Center for Biosystematics, Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, POB 1172, Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Gordo O, Barriocanal C, Robson D. Ecological Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Mediterranean Ecosystems. ADVANCES IN GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH 2011. [DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-1372-7_11] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
|
18
|
|
19
|
Nilsson ALK, Knudsen E, Jerstad K, Røstad OW, Walseng B, Slagsvold T, Stenseth NC. Climate effects on population fluctuations of the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus. J Anim Ecol 2010; 80:235-43. [PMID: 20880020 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01755.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
1. Climate change may have profound consequences for many organisms. We have studied fluctuations in a population of the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus during 31 years (1978-2008) in a river system in southern Norway in relation to both large-scale and local weather conditions occurring during the non-breeding season. 2. Multiple regression and partial least squares regression were used to model the growth rate of the population, accounting for population size in the previous year. 3. Population growth was influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mean winter temperature, precipitation and timing of ice formation on the main lake in the river system in autumn. These variables explained 84% of the variation in population growth over the 31-year study period. 4. Local winter conditions played a prominent role in explaining the population fluctuations, which is plausible because the dipper depends on open water for foraging. In the study area, winters can be harsh and rivers and lakes may freeze and severely affect the subsequent population size of the dipper in spring. 5. The breeding population of the dipper does not seem yet to have reached a level where all possible territories in the area have been occupied, even after mild winters, and the estimated carrying capacity is also decidedly lower (66 breeding pairs) than the number of available territories. If the trend of milder winters continues, the population might increase in the future. However, strong climate variation is expected to continue in the future, and hence periods of rapid growth of the dipper population will probably be followed by severe declines.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anna L K Nilsson
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
20
|
Abstract
This paper examines potential effects of predicted climate changes on the forage conditions during both summer and winter for semidomesticated reindeer in Sweden. Positive effects in summer ranges include higher plant productivity and a longer growing season, while negative effects include increased insect harassment. Forage quality may change in both positive and negative ways. An increase in shrubs and trees in alpine heaths is also likely. A warmer climate means shorter winters, which will have positive effects for the survival of reindeer. However, warmer and wetter weather may also result in increased probabilities of ice-crust formations, which strongly decrease forage availability. A warmer climate with higher forest productivity will also likely reduce lichen availability through competitive interactions. Adaptations to these changes will include maintaining a choice of grazing sites in both summer and winter. However, this capacity may already be severely limited because of other forms of land use.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jon Moen
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Helle S, Helama S. Climatic variability and the population dynamics of historical hunter-gatherers: the case of Sami of Northern Finland. Am J Hum Biol 2008; 19:844-53. [PMID: 17696129 DOI: 10.1002/ajhb.20650] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Our current knowledge on climate-mediated effects on human population dynamics is based on preindustrial agrarian societies where climate-induced crop failures had a major impact on fertility and mortality rates. However, because most of the human evolutionary history has been shaped by hunter-gatherer lifestyle relying on diverse plant and animal food sources, it is also important to understand how climate affected the population dynamics of hunter-gatherers. We thus studied whether climate, measured as a reconstructed annual mean temperature, had concurrent or delayed effects on the key components of population dynamics, annual births and deaths, in three historical (1722-1850) Sami populations of Northern Finland that depended mainly on fishing, hunting, and reindeer herding for their livelihood. We found only weak concurrent effects of mean temperature on annual births and deaths, although in general warm years correlated with increased birth and reduced mortality rates. Likewise, temperature-mediated delayed effects were mainly absent: in one population only, a warm previous year tended to reduce the number of births. By contrast, annual numbers of births and deaths were more closely associated, as indicated by negative correlations between births and deaths up to three previous years. To summarize, in contrast to historical agrarian societies, the population dynamics of historical Sami seemed to be only weakly associated with annual mean temperature, which may indicate that these populations, probably due to their dietary breadth, were rather unaffected by climatic variation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Samuli Helle
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku, Finland.
| | | |
Collapse
|
22
|
Zackenberg in a Circumpolar Context. ADV ECOL RES 2008. [DOI: 10.1016/s0065-2504(07)00021-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register]
|
23
|
Jonas JL, Joern A. Grasshopper (Orthoptera: Acrididae) communities respond to fire, bison grazing and weather in North American tallgrass prairie: a long-term study. Oecologia 2007; 153:699-711. [PMID: 17546466 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-007-0761-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2006] [Accepted: 04/30/2007] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Because both intrinsic and extrinsic factors influence insect population dynamics, operating at a range of temporal and spatial scales, it is difficult to assess their contributions. Long-term studies are ideal for assessing the relative contributions of multiple factors to abundance and community dynamics. Using data spanning 25 years, we investigate the contributions of weather at annual and decadal scales, fire return interval, and grazing by bison to understand the dynamics of abundance and community composition in grasshopper assemblages from North American continental grassland. Each of these three primary drivers of grassland ecosystem dynamics affects grasshopper population and community dynamics. Negative feedbacks in abundances, as expected for regulated populations, were observed for all feeding guilds of grasshoppers. Abundance of grasshoppers did not vary in response to frequency of prescribed burns at the site. Among watersheds that varied with respect to controlled spring burns and grazing by bison, species composition of grasshopper assemblages responded significantly to both after 25 years. However, after more than 20 years of fire and grazing treatments, the number of years since the last fire was more important than the managed long-term fire frequency per se. Yearly shifts in species composition (1983-2005), examined using non-metric multidimensional scaling and fourth-corner analysis, were best explained by local weather events occurring early in grasshopper life cycles. Large-scale patterns were represented by the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO was significantly correlated with annual mean frequencies of grasshoppers, especially for forb- and mixed-feeding species. Primary grassland drivers-fire, grazing and weather-contributing both intrinsic and extrinsic influences modulate long-term fluctuations in grasshopper abundances and community taxonomic composition.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jayne L Jonas
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA.
| | | |
Collapse
|
24
|
Mysterud A, Bartoń KA, Jędrzejewska B, Krasiński ZA, Niedziałkowska M, Kamler JF, Yoccoz NG, Stenseth NC. Population ecology and conservation of endangered megafauna: the case of European bison in Bia?owie?a Primeval Forest, Poland. Anim Conserv 2007. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2006.00075.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
|
25
|
Mysterud A, Tryjanowski P, Panek M, Pettorelli N, Stenseth NC. Inter-specific synchrony of two contrasting ungulates: wild boar (Sus scrofa) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Oecologia 2006; 151:232-9. [PMID: 17102995 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-006-0584-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2006] [Accepted: 10/11/2006] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Very few studies on ungulates address issues of inter-specific synchrony in population responses to environmental variation such as climate. Depending on whether annual variation in performance of ungulate populations is driven by direct or indirect (trophic) interactions, very different predictions regarding the pattern of inter-specific synchrony can be derived. We compared annual autumn body mass variation in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and wild boar (Sus scrofa) from Poland over the period 1982-2002, and related this to variation in winter and summer climate and plant phenological development [the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from satellites]. Roe deer fawns (approximately 1.3 kg increase from year 1982 to 2002) and yearlings both increased markedly in mass over years. There was also an increase for wild boar mass over years (approximately 4.2 kg increase for piglets from 1982 to 2002). Despite our failure to link annual body mass to spring or winter conditions or the NDVI, the body mass of roe deer and wild boar fluctuated in synchrony. As this was a field roe deer population, and since wild boar is an omnivore, we suggest this may be linked to annual variation and trends in crop structure (mainly rye). We urge future studies to take advantage of studying multiple species in order to gain further insight into processes of how climate affect ungulate populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Atle Mysterud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway.
| | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
26
|
Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA, Jenkins HE, Johnston WT, Cox DR, Bourne FJ, Cheeseman CL, Delahay RJ, Clifton-Hadley RS, Gettinby G, Gilks P, Hewinson RG, McInerney JP, Morrison WI. Culling and cattle controls influence tuberculosis risk for badgers. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2006; 103:14713-7. [PMID: 17015843 PMCID: PMC1586183 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0606251103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 114] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Human and livestock diseases can be difficult to control where infection persists in wildlife populations. In Britain, European badgers (Meles meles) are implicated in transmitting Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), to cattle. Badger culling has therefore been a component of British TB control policy for many years. However, large-scale field trials have recently shown that badger culling has the capacity to cause both increases and decreases in cattle TB incidence. Here, we show that repeated badger culling in the same area is associated with increasing prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers, especially where landscape features allow badgers from neighboring land to recolonize culled areas. This impact on prevalence in badgers might reduce the beneficial effects of culling on cattle TB incidence, and could contribute to the detrimental effects that have been observed. Additionally, we show that suspension of cattle TB controls during a nationwide epidemic of foot and mouth disease, which substantially delayed removal of TB-affected cattle, was associated with a widespread increase in the prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers. This pattern suggests that infection may be transmitted from cattle to badgers, as well as vice versa. Clearly, disease control measures aimed at either host species may have unintended consequences for transmission, both within and between species. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to consider multiple transmission routes when managing multihost pathogens.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rosie Woodroffe
- *Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616
- Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, c/o Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, United Kingdom
| | - Christl A. Donnelly
- Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, c/o Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
| | - Helen E. Jenkins
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
| | - W. Thomas Johnston
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
| | - David R. Cox
- Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, c/o Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, United Kingdom
- Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford OX1 1NF, United Kingdom
| | - F. John Bourne
- Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, c/o Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | - George Gettinby
- Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, c/o Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, United Kingdom
- Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Richmond Street, Glasgow G1 1XH, United Kingdom; and
| | - Peter Gilks
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
| | - R. Glyn Hewinson
- **Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Woodham Lane, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom
| | - John P. McInerney
- Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, c/o Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, United Kingdom
| | - W. Ivan Morrison
- Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, c/o Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, United Kingdom
- Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
MILNER JOSM, BONENFANT CHRISTOPHE, MYSTERUD ATLE, GAILLARD JEANMICHEL, CSÁNYI SÁNDOR, STENSETH NILSCHR. Temporal and spatial development of red deer harvesting in Europe: biological and cultural factors. J Appl Ecol 2006. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01183.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 231] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
|
28
|
STENSETH NILSCHR, MYSTERUD ATLE. Weather packages: finding the right scale and composition of climate in ecology. J Anim Ecol 2005. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2005.01005.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 122] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
|
29
|
Chan KS, Mysterud A, Øritsland NA, Severinsen T, Stenseth NC. Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population. Oecologia 2005; 145:556-63. [PMID: 16010537 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-005-0157-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2005] [Accepted: 05/09/2005] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kung-Sik Chan
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA
| | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
30
|
Life-history variation of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in the highly productive North Ottadalen region, Norway. J Zool (1987) 2005. [DOI: 10.1017/s0952836904006041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
|
31
|
Stenseth NC, Chan KS, Tavecchia G, Coulson T, Mysterud A, Clutton-Brock T, Grenfell B. Modelling non-additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example. Proc Biol Sci 2004; 271:1985-93. [PMID: 15451687 PMCID: PMC1691829 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2004.2794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding how climate can interact with other factors in determining patterns of species abundance is a persistent challenge in ecology. Recent research has suggested that the dynamics exhibited by some populations may be a non-additive function of climate, with climate affecting population growth more strongly at high density than at low density. However, we lack methodologies to adequately explain patterns in population growth generated as a result of interactions between intrinsic factors and extrinsic climatic variation in non-linear systems. We present a novel method (the Functional Coefficient Threshold Auto-Regressive (FCTAR) method) that can identify interacting influences of climate and density on population dynamics from time-series data. We demonstrate its use on count data on the size of the Soay sheep population, which is known to exhibit dynamics generated by nonlinear and non-additive interactions between density and climate, living on Hirta in the St Kilda archipelago. The FCTAR method suggests that climate fluctuations can drive the Soay sheep population between different dynamical regimes--from stable population size through limit cycles and non-periodic fluctuations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
32
|
Hallett TB, Coulson T, Pilkington JG, Clutton-Brock TH, Pemberton JM, Grenfell BT. Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather. Nature 2004; 430:71-5. [PMID: 15229599 DOI: 10.1038/nature02708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 256] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2004] [Accepted: 05/24/2004] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- T B Hallett
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
33
|
|
34
|
Saether BE, Engen S, Møller AP, Matthysen E, Adriaensen F, Fiedler W, Leivits A, Lambrechts MM, Visser ME, Anker-Nilssen T, Both C, Dhondt AA, McCleery RH, McMeeking J, Potti J, Røstad OW, Thomson D. Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines. Proc Biol Sci 2004; 270:2397-404. [PMID: 14667357 PMCID: PMC1691515 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2003.2499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bernt-Erik Saether
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
35
|
Mysterud A. Temporal variation in the number of car-killed red deerCervus elaphusin Norway. WILDLIFE BIOLOGY 2004. [DOI: 10.2981/wlb.2004.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Atle Mysterud
- Atle Mysterud, Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway -
| |
Collapse
|
36
|
Stenseth NC, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Mysterud A, Lima M, Chan KS, Yoccoz NG, Adlandsvik B. Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond. Proc Biol Sci 2003; 270:2087-96. [PMID: 14561270 PMCID: PMC1691494 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2003.2415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 300] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|