Geodetic monitoring of the recent activity and the dome forming eruption at Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia), 2010-2023

Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia) is infamous for the catastrophic eruption of 1985 that destroyed the villages of Armero and Chinchiná. However, this was not the volcano's first destructive event; similar eruptions also occurred in 1595 and 1845. In 1985, the limited geodetic data available failed to provide a clear warning of the impending eruption. Since then, advancement in geodetic monitoring, now incorporating tilt and satellite geodesy, along with improvements in seismic, geochemical, geological and remote sensing monitoring, have enhanced hazards assessment and mitigated the risk during subsequent eruptions in 1989, 2012, and 2015-2019, as well as during periods of unrest over the last 13 years. Modeling of deformation data over the past 13 years reveals complex interactions between the local, shallow magmatic system beneath Nevado del Ruiz and a deep, regional magmatic system beneath Nevado de Santa Isabel, 9 km southwest of Nevado del Ruiz. Before February 2012, the volcano deflated because of the depressurization of the local shallow reservoir. This same reservoir later fueled ash emissions and gas release (2012-2023), and a dome-forming eruption (2015-2019). In contrast, the inflation observed from 2012 to 2023 is linked to the pressurization of the deep reservoir beneath the Nevado de Santa Isabel.

Evaluating Urban Building Damage of 2023 Kahramanmaras, Turkey Earthquake Sequence Using SAR Change Detection

On February 6, 2023 (local time), two earthquakes (Mw7.8 and Mw7.7) struck central and southern Turkey, causing extensive damage to several cities and claiming a toll of 40,000 lives. In this study, we propose a method for seismic building damage assessment and analysis by combining SAR amplitude and phase coherence change detection. We determined building damage in five severely impacted urban areas and calculated the damage ratio by measuring the urban area and the damaged area. The largest damage ratio of 18.93% is observed in Nurdagi, and the smallest ratio of 7.59% is found in Islahiye. We verified the results by comparing them with high-resolution optical images and AI recognition results from the Microsoft team. We also used pixel offset tracking (POT) technology and D-InSAR technology to obtain surface deformation using Sentinel-1A images and analyzed the relationship between surface deformation and post-earthquake urban building damage. The results show that Nurdagi has the largest urban average surface deformation of 0.48 m and Antakya has the smallest deformation of 0.09 m. We found that buildings in the areas with steeper slopes or closer to earthquake faults have higher risk of collapse. We also discussed the influence of SAR image parameters on building change recognition. Image resolution and observation geometry have a great influence on the change detection results, and the resolution can be improved by various means to raise the recognition accuracy. Our research findings can guide earthquake disaster assessment and analysis and identify influential factors of earthquake damage.

Clustering Analysis of Seismicity in the Anatolian Region with Implications for Seismic Hazard

The Anatolian region is one of the most seismically active tectonic settings in the world. Here, we perform a clustering analysis of Turkish seismicity using an updated version of the Turkish Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue (TURHEC), which contains the recent developments of the still ongoing Kahramanmaraş seismic sequence. We show that some statistical properties of seismic activity are related to the regional seismogenic potential. Mapping the local and global coefficients of variation of inter-event times of crustal seismicity which occurred during the last three decades, we find that territories prone to major seismic events during the last century usually host globally clustered and locally Poissonian seismic activity. We suggest that regions with seismicity associated with higher values of the global coefficient of variation of inter-event times, CV, are likely to be more prone to hosting large earthquakes in the near future than other regions characterized by lower values, if their largest seismic events have the same magnitude. If our hypothesis is confirmed, clustering properties should be considered as a possible additional information source for the assessment of seismic hazard. We also find positive correlations between global clustering properties, the maximum magnitude and the seismic rate, while the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law is weakly correlated with them. Finally, we identify possible changes in such parameters before and during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş seismic sequence.

Preconditioning the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquake disaster

The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes occurred on active faults that were known to be a high seismic hazard, yet the devastating impacts of these earthquakes show that the risk was not adequately considered. Vulnerabilities arising from exposure, corruption and poverty led to a lack of seismic preparedness which amplified the earthquake risk into a tragic disaster.

Present-Day Crustal Velocity Field in Ecuador from cGPS Position Time Series

The present study analyzes the GNSS time series obtained between the years 2017 and 2022 for the calculation of absolute and residual rates of Ecuador in 10 stations (ABEC, CUEC, ECEC, EPEC, FOEC, GZEC, MUEC, PLEC, RIOP, SEEC, TPC) of the continuous monitoring REGME network. Considering that the latest studies refer to periods 2012-2014 and Ecuador is located in an area of high seismic activity, it is important to update the GNSS rates. The RINEX data were provided by the Military Geographic Institute of Ecuador, the governing institution of geoinformation in that country; for processing, GipsyX scientific software was used with a PPP mode, considering 24 h sessions, and high precision was achieved. For the analysis of time series, the SARI platform was used. The series was modeled using a least-squares adjustment, which delivered the velocities for each station in the three local topocentric components. The results were contrasted with other studies, obtaining interesting conclusions as the presence of abnormal post-seismic rates stands out due to the high rate of seismic occurrence in Ecuador, and reaffirms the idea of a constant update of velocities for the Ecuadorian territory and the inclusion of the stochastic factor in the analysis of GNSS time series, since it can affect the ability to obtain the final GNSS velocities.

The 27 September 2021 Earthquake in Central Crete (Greece)—Detailed Analysis of the Earthquake Sequence and Indications for Contemporary Arc-Parallel Extension to the Hellenic Arc

The Arkalochori village in central Crete was hit by a large earthquake (Mw = 6.0) on 27 September 2021, causing casualties, injuries, and severe damage to the infrastructure. Due to the absence of apparent surface rupture and the initial focal mechanism solution of the seismic event, we initiated complementary, multi-disciplinary research by combining seismological and remote sensing data processing, followed by extensive field validation. Detailed geological mapping, fault surface measuring accompanied with tectonic analysis, fault photorealistic model creation by unmanned aerial system data processing, post-seismic surface deformation analysis by DInSAR image interpretation coupled with accurately relocated epicenters recorded by locally established seismographs have been carried out. The combination of the results obtained from these techniques led to the determination of the contemporary tectonic stress regime that caused the earthquake in central Crete, which was found compatible with extensional processes parallel to the Hellenic arc.

Caught in travertine: computed tomography reveals the youngest record of Amphicyon giganteus from the travertine deposits of Karacalar (late middle Miocene, central Anatolia, Turkey)

A computed tomography scan of a travertine slab from the Karacalar Silver Travertine Quarry (Afyonkarahisar Province, Turkey) revealed the presence of an encased partial cranium, partial mandible and three vertebrae. 3D reconstruction of the fossil helped identifying it as Amphicyon giganteus. As the travertine caps a section correlated to MN7/8, the specimen represents the youngest record of Amphicyon giganteus, the known range previously being limited to MN4 - MN6. This young age is in line with the more advanced morphology of the lower molars.

Late Quaternary Marine Terraces and Tectonic Uplift Rates of the Broader Neapolis Area (SE Peloponnese, Greece)

Marine terraces are geomorphic markers largely used to estimate past sea-level positions and surface deformation rates in studies focused on climate and tectonic processes worldwide. This paper aims to investigate the role of tectonic processes in the late Quaternary evolution of the coastal landscape of the broader Neapolis area by assessing long-term vertical deformation rates. To document and estimate coastal uplift, marine terraces are used in conjunction with Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating and correlation to late Quaternary eustatic sea-level variations. The study area is located in SE Peloponnese in a tectonically active region. Geodynamic processes in the area are related to the active subduction of the African lithosphere beneath the Eurasian plate. A series of 10 well preserved uplifted marine terraces with inner edges ranging in elevation from 8 ± 2 m to 192 ± 2 m above m.s.l. have been documented, indicating a significant coastal uplift of the study area. Marine terraces have been identified and mapped using topographic maps (at a scale of 1:5000), aerial photographs, and a 2 m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM), supported by extensive field observations. OSL dating of selected samples from two of the terraces allowed us to correlate them with late Pleistocene Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) sea-level highstands and to estimate the long-term uplift rate. Based on the findings of the above approach, a long-term uplift rate of 0.36 ± 0.11 mm a−1 over the last 401 ± 10 ka has been suggested for the study area. The spatially uniform uplift of the broader Neapolis area is driven by the active subduction of the African lithosphere beneath the Eurasian plate since the study area is situated very close (~90 km) to the active margin of the Hellenic subduction zone.

Geomorphological Analysis of Xilokastro Fault, Central Gulf of Corinth, Greece

The Gulf of Corinth is a rapidly opening area with high seismicity associated with extensive building collapses, destruction of cities, and even the deaths of inhabitants. Rapid residential development, especially in the southern part of the Gulf of Corinth, and the construction of crucial technical infrastructures necessitate understanding the activity across crustal-scale faults that host devastating earthquakes. The evolution of landforms affected by fault action is a dominant issue in geological science. In the present study, was selected the 20 km long Xilokastro pure normal fault. In this fault, we apply eight geomorphological indices in footwall catchments that drain perpendicular to its trace. In total, more than 5000 measurements were made in 102 catchments. The determination of geomorphological indices requires the construction of morphological profiles either perpendicular to the faults or perpendicular to the main tributaries of the drainage basins under consideration through the use of the geographical information systems (ArcGIS platform). Τhe application of these indices along catchments draining the Xilokastro fault scarp show high active tectonics. Its high activity is evidenced by the high values of the length-slope index near the fault trace, the low values of the width to height ratio index, the strong asymmetry of the drainage basins, especially in the overlapping zones between its segments, and the elongated shape of the drainage basins. This study supports the idea that the application of a single morphometric index is unable to reflect the distribution of active tectonics across faults, which makes inevitable the systematic comparison of a series of tectonic morphometric indices from which a new combined index emerges (Iat). The Iat classifies the Xilokastro fault in the high degree of activity at a rate of 75% of its length.

The Santorini-Amorgos Shear Zone: Evidence for Dextral Transtension in the South Aegean Back-Arc Region, Greece

Bathymetric and seismic data provide insights into the geomorphological configuration, seismic stratigraphy, structure, and evolution of the area between Santorini, Amorgos, Astypalea, and Anafi islands. Santorini-Amorgos Shear Zone (SASZ) is a NE-SW striking feature that includes seven basins, two shallow ridges, and hosts the volcanic centers of Santorini and Kolumbo. The SASZ initiated in the Early Pliocene as a single, W-E oriented basin. A major reorganization of the geodynamic regime led to (i) reorientation of the older faults and initiation of NE-SW striking ones, (ii) disruption of the single basin and localized subsidence and uplift, (iii) creation of four basins out of the former single one (Anafi, Amorgos South, Amorgos North, and Kinairos basins), (iv) rifting of the northern and southern margins and creation of Anydros, Astypalea North, and Astypalea South basins, and (v) uplift of the ridges. Dextral shearing and oblique rifting are accommodated by NE-SW striking, dextral oblique to strike-slip faults and by roughly W-E striking, normal, transfer faults. It is suggested here that enhanced shearing in NE-SW direction and oblique rifting may be the dominant deformation mechanism in the South Aegean since Early Quaternary associated with the interaction of North Anatolian Fault with the slab roll-back.

Relations between earthquake distributions, geological history, tectonics and rheology on the continents

This paper is concerned with the distribution of earthquakes, particularly their depths, with the temperature of the material in which they occur, and with the significance of both for the rheology and deformation of the continental lithosphere. Earthquakes on faults are generated by the sudden release of elastic energy that accumulates during slow plate motions. The nonlinear high-temperature creep that localizes such energy accumulation is, in principle, well understood and can be described by rheological models. But the same is not true of seismogenic brittle failure, the main focus of this paper, and severely limits the insights that can be obtained by simulations derived from geodynamical modelling of lithosphere deformation. Through advances in seismic tomography, we can now make increasingly detailed maps of lithosphere thickness on the continents. The lateral variations are dramatic, with some places up to 300 km thick, and clearly relate to the geological history of the continents as well as their present-day deformation. Where the lithosphere thickness is about 120 km or less, continental earthquakes are generally confined to upper crustal material that is colder than about 350°C. Within thick lithosphere, and especially on its edges, the entire crust may be seismogenic, with earthquakes sometimes extending into the uppermost mantle if the Moho is colder than 600°C, but the continental mantle is generally aseismic. Earthquakes in the continental lower crust at 400-600°C require the crust to be anhydrous and so are a useful guide or proxy to both composition and strength. These patterns and correlations have important implications for the geological evolution of the continents. They can be seen to have influenced features as diverse as the location of post-collisional rifting; cratonic basin formation; the location, origin and timing of granulite-facies metamorphism; and the formation, longevity and strength of cratons. In addition, they have important consequences for earthquake hazard assessment in the slowly deforming edges and interiors of continental shields or platforms, where the large seismogenic thickness can host very large earthquakes. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Morphotectonic Analysis along the Northern Margin of Samos Island, Related to the Seismic Activity of October 2020, Aegean Sea, Greece

On 30 October 2020, a strong earthquake of magnitude 7.0 occurred north of Samos Island at the Eastern Aegean Sea, whose earthquake mechanism corresponds to an E-W normal fault dipping to the north. During the aftershock period in December 2020, a hydrographic survey off the northern coastal margin of Samos Island was conducted onboard R/V NAFTILOS. The result was a detailed bathymetric map with 15 m grid interval and 50 m isobaths and a morphological slope map. The morphotectonic analysis showed the E-W fault zone running along the coastal zone with 30–50° of slope, forming a half-graben structure. Numerous landslides and canyons trending N-S, transversal to the main direction of the Samos coastline, are observed between 600 and 100 m water depth. The ENE-WSW oriented western Samos coastline forms the SE margin of the neighboring deeper Ikaria Basin. A hummocky relief was detected at the eastern margin of Samos Basin probably representing volcanic rocks. The active tectonics characterized by N-S extension is very different from the Neogene tectonics of Samos Island characterized by NE-SW compression. The mainshock and most of the aftershocks of the October 2020 seismic activity occur on the prolongation of the north dipping E-W fault zone at about 12 km depth.

Crustal Structure of the Eastern Anatolia Region (Turkey) Based on Seismic Tomography

Here, we investigated the crustal structure beneath eastern Anatolia, an area of high seismicity and critical significance for earthquake hazards in Turkey. The study was based on the local tomography method using data from earthquakes that occurred in the study area provided by the Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Ministry of Interior Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate Earthquake Department Directorate of Turkey. The dataset used for tomography included the travel times of 54,713 P-waves and 38,863 S-waves from 6355 seismic events. The distributions of the resulting seismic velocities (Vp, Vs) down to a depth of 60 km demonstrate significant anomalies associated with the major geologic and tectonic features of the region. The Arabian plate was revealed as a high-velocity anomaly, and the low-velocity patterns north of the Bitlis suture are mostly associated with eastern Anatolia. The upper crust of eastern Anatolia was associated with a ~10 km thick high-velocity anomaly; the lower crust is revealed as a wedge-shaped low-velocity anomaly. This kind of seismic structure under eastern Anatolia corresponded to the hypothesized existence of a lithospheric window beneath this collision zone, through which hot material of the asthenosphere rises. Thus, the presented results help to clarify the deep structure under eastern Anatolia.

Relative Sea Level Changes and Morphotectonic Implications Triggered by the Samos Earthquake of 30th October 2020

On 30th October 2020, the eastern Aegean Sea was shaken by a Mw = 7.0 earthquake. The epicenter was located near the northern coasts of Samos island. This tectonic event produced an uplift of the whole island as well as several cases of infrastructure damage, while a small tsunami followed the mainshock. Underwater and coastal geological, geomorphological, biological observations and measurements were performed at the entire coast revealing a complex character for the uplift. At the northwestern part of the island, maximum vertical displacements of +35 ± 5 cm were recorded at the northwestern tip, at Agios Isidoros. Conversely, the southeastern part was known for its subsidence through submerged archaeological remains and former sea level standstills. The 2020 underwater survey unveiled uplifted but still drowned sea level indicators. The vertical displacement at the south and southeastern part ranges between +23 ± 5 and +8 ± 5 cm suggesting a gradual fading of the uplift towards the east. The crucial value of tidal notches, as markers of co-seismic events, was validated from the outcome of this study. The co-seismic response of Samos coastal zone to the 30th October earthquake provides a basis for understanding the complex tectonics of this area.

Short-Term Foreshocks as Key Information for Mainshock Timing and Rupture: The Mw6.8 25 October 2018 Zakynthos Earthquake, Hellenic Subduction Zone

Significant seismicity anomalies preceded the 25 October 2018 mainshock (Mw = 6.8), NW Hellenic Arc: a transient intermediate-term (~2 yrs) swarm and a short-term (last 6 months) cluster with typical time-size-space foreshock patterns: activity increase, b-value drop, foreshocks move towards mainshock epicenter. The anomalies were identified with both a standard earthquake catalogue and a catalogue relocated with the Non-Linear Location (NLLoc) algorithm. Teleseismic P-waveforms inversion showed oblique-slip rupture with strike 10°, dip 24°, length ~70 km, faulting depth ~24 km, velocity 3.2 km/s, duration 18 s, slip 1.8 m within the asperity, seismic moment 2.0 × 1026 dyne*cm. The two largest imminent foreshocks (Mw = 4.1, Mw = 4.8) occurred very close to the mainshock hypocenter. The asperity bounded up-dip by the foreshocks area and at the north by the foreshocks/swarm area. The accelerated foreshocks very likely promoted slip accumulation contributing to unlocking the asperity and breaking with the mainshock. The rupture initially propagated northwards, but after 6 s stopped at the north bound and turned southwards. Most early aftershocks concentrated in the foreshocks/swarm area. This distribution was controlled not only by stress transfer from the mainshock but also by pre-existing stress. In the frame of a program for regular monitoring and near real-time identification of seismicity anomalies, foreshock patterns would be detectable at least three months prior the mainshock, thus demonstrating the significant predictive value of foreshocks.

Seismogenic Source Model of the 2019, Mw 5.9, East-Azerbaijan Earthquake (NW Iran) through the Inversion of Sentinel-1 DInSAR Measurements

In this work, we investigate the Mw 5.9 earthquake occurred on 7 November 2019 in the East-Azerbaijan region, in northwestern Iran, which is inserted in the tectonic framework of the East-Azerbaijan Plateau, a complex mountain belt that contains internal major fold-and-thrust belts. We first analyze the Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) measurements obtained by processing the data collected by the Sentinel-1 constellation along ascending and descending orbits; then, we invert the achieved results through analytical modelling, in order to better constrain the geometry and characteristics of the seismogenic source. The retrieved fault model shows a rather shallow seismic structure, with a center depth at about 3 km, approximately NE–SW-striking and southeast-dipping, characterized by a left-lateral strike-slip fault mechanism (strike = 29.17°, dip = 79.29°, rake = −4.94°) and by a maximum slip of 0.80 m. By comparing the inferred fault with the already published geological structures, the retrieved solution reveals a minor fault not reported in the geological maps available in the open literature, whose kinematics is compatible with that of the surrounding structures, with the local and regional stress states and with the performed field observations. Moreover, by taking into account the surrounding geological structures reported in literature, we also use the retrieved fault model to calculate the Coulomb Failure Function at the nearby receiver faults. We show that this event may have encouraged, with a positive loading, the activation of the considered receiver faults. This is also confirmed by the distribution of the aftershocks that occurred near the considered surrounding structures. The analysis of the seismic events nucleated along the left-lateral strike-slip minor faults of the East-Azerbaijan Plateau, such as the one analyzed in this work, is essential to improve our knowledge on the seismic hazard estimation in northwestern Iran.

Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Hydrocarbon Habitat of the Abadan Plain Basin: A Geological Review of a Prolific Middle Eastern Hydrocarbon Province

The Abadan Plain Basin is located in the Middle East region which is host to some of the world’s largest oil and gas fields around the Persian Gulf. This basin is a foredeep basin to the southwest of the Zagros Fold-Thrust-Belt, bounded along its northern and eastern margins by the Dezful Embayment. Most of the rocks in this basin have been deposited in a carbonate environment, and existing fractures have made the formations a favourable place for hydrocarbon accumulations. The basin is enriched by oil and, therefore, gas reservoirs are few, and some of the explored reservoirs exhibit significant degrees of overpressure. This paper has compiled several aspects of the Abadan Plain Basin tectonics, structural geology and petroleum systems to provide a better understanding of the opportunities and risks of development activities in this region. In addition to the existing knowledge, this paper provides a basin-wide examination of pore pressure, vertical stress, temperature gradient, and wellbore stability issues.

Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault

Earthquakes are caused by the release of tectonic strain accumulated between events. Recent advances in satellite geodesy mean we can now measure this interseismic strain accumulation with a high degree of accuracy. But it remains unclear how to interpret short-term geodetic observations, measured over decades, when estimating the seismic hazard of faults accumulating strain over centuries. Here, we show that strain accumulation rates calculated from geodetic measurements around a major transform fault are constant for its entire 250-year interseismic period, except in the ~10 years following an earthquake. The shear strain rate history requires a weak fault zone embedded within a strong lower crust with viscosity greater than ~10²⁰ Pa s. The results support the notion that short-term geodetic observations can directly contribute to long-term seismic hazard assessment and suggest that lower-crustal viscosities derived from postseismic studies are not representative of the lower crust at all spatial and temporal scales.

New Insights on Mt. Etna's Crust and Relationship with the Regional Tectonic Framework from Joint Active and Passive P-Wave Seismic Tomography

In the Central Mediterranean region, the production of chemically diverse volcanic products (e.g., those from Mt. Etna and the Aeolian Islands archipelago) testifies to the complexity of the tectonic and geodynamic setting. Despite the large number of studies that have focused on this area, the relationships among volcanism, tectonics, magma ascent, and geodynamic processes remain poorly understood. We present a tomographic inversion of P-wave velocity using active and passive sources. Seismic signals were recorded using both temporary on-land and ocean bottom seismometers and data from a permanent local seismic network consisting of 267 seismic stations. Active seismic signals were generated using air gun shots mounted on the Spanish Oceanographic Vessel 'Sarmiento de Gamboa'. Passive seismic sources were obtained from 452 local earthquakes recorded over a 4-month period. In total, 184,797 active P-phase and 11,802 passive P-phase first arrivals were inverted to provide three different velocity models. Our results include the first crustal seismic active tomography for the northern Sicily area, including the Peloritan-southern Calabria region and both the Mt. Etna and Aeolian volcanic environments. The tomographic images provide a detailed and complete regional seismotectonic framework and highlight a spatially heterogeneous tectonic regime, which is consistent with and extends the findings of previous models. One of our most significant results was a tomographic map extending to 14 km depth showing a discontinuity striking roughly NW-SE, extending from the Gulf of Patti to the Ionian Sea, south-east of Capo Taormina, corresponding to the Aeolian-Tindari-Letojanni fault system, a regional deformation belt. Moreover, for the first time, we observed a high-velocity anomaly located in the south-eastern sector of the Mt. Etna region, offshore of the Timpe area, which is compatible with the plumbing system of an ancient shield volcano located offshore of Mt. Etna.

The October 23, 2011, Van (Turkey) earthquake and its relationship with neighbouring structures

The present work reports the analysis of a possible relationship due to stress transfer between the two earthquakes that hit the province of Van, Eastern Turkey, on October 23, 2011 (Mw = 7.2) and on November 9, 2011 (Mw = 5.6). The surface displacement field of the mainshock has been obtained through a combined data set made up of differential interferograms from COSMO-SkyMed and ENVISAT satellites, integrated with continuous GPS recordings from the Turkish TUSAGA-AKTIF network. This allowed us to retrieve the geometry and the slip distribution of the seismic source and to compute the Coulomb Failure Function (CFF) variation on the aftershock plane, in order to assess a possible causal relationship between the two events. Our results show that the November 9 earthquake could have been triggered by the October 23 shock, with transferred stress values largely exceeding 1 bar.

Crust-mantle mechanical coupling in Eastern Mediterranean and eastern Turkey

Present-day crust-mantle coupling in the Eastern Mediterranean and eastern Turkey is studied using the Global Positioning System (GPS) and seismic anisotropy data. The general trend of the shear wave fast-splitting directions in NE Turkey and Lesser Caucaus align well with the geodetic velocities in an absolute plate motion frame of reference pointing to an effective coupling in this part of the region of weak surface deformation. Farther south, underneath the Bitlis Suture, however, there are significant Pn delays with E-W anisotropy axes indicating significant lateral escape. Meanwhile, the GPS reveals very little surface deformation. This mismatch possibly suggests a decoupling along the suture. In the Aegean, the shear wave anisotropy and the Pn anisotropy directions agree with the extensional component of the right-lateral shear strains except under the Crete Basin and other parts of the southern Aegean Sea. This extensional direction matches perfectly also with the southward pulling force vectors across the Hellenic trench; however, the maximum right-lateral shear directions obtained from the GPS data in the Aegean do not match either of these anisotropies. Seismic anisotropy from Rayleigh waves sampled at 15 s, corresponding to the lower crust, match the maximum right-lateral maximum shear directions from the GPS indicating decoupling between the crust and the mantle. This decoupling most likely results from the lateral variations of the gravitational potential energies and the slab-pull forces.

Seismic structure, crustal architecture and tectonic evolution of the Anatolian-African Plate Boundary and the Cenozoic Orogenic Belts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

The modern Anatolian–African plate boundary is represented by a north-dipping subduction zone that has been part of a broad domain of regional convergence between Eurasia and Afro–Arabia since the latest Mesozoic. A series of collisions between Gondwana-derived ribbon continents and trench-roll-back systems in the Tethyan realm produced nearly East–West-trending, subparallel mountain belts with high elevation and thick orogenic crust in this region. Ophiolite emplacement, terrane stacking, high‐P and Barrovian metamorphism, and crustal thickening occurred during the accretion of these microcontinents into the upper plates of Tethyan subduction roll-back systems during the Late Cretaceous–Early Eocene. Continued convergence and oceanic lithospheric subduction within the Tethyan realm were punctuated by slab breakoff events following the microcontinental accretion episodes. Slab breakoff resulted in asthenospheric upwelling and partial melting, which facilitated post-collisional magmatism along and across the suture zones. Resumed subduction and slab roll-back-induced upper plate extension triggered a tectonic collapse of the thermally weakened orogenic crust in Anatolia in the late Oligocene–Miocene. This extensional phase resulted in exhumation of high‐P rocks and medium- to lower-crustal material leading to the formation of metamorphic core complexes in the hinterland of the young collision zones. The geochemical character of the attendant magmatism has progressed from initial shoshonitic and high‐K calc‐alkaline to calc‐alkaline and alkaline affinities through time, as more asthenosphere-derived melts found their way to the surface with insignificant degrees of crustal contamination. The occurrence of discrete high-velocity bodies in the mantle beneath Anatolia, as deduced from lithospheric seismic velocity data, supports our Tethyan slab breakoff interpretations. Pn velocity and Sn attenuation tomography models indicate that the uppermost mantle is anomalously hot and thin, consistent with the existence of a shallow asthenosphere beneath the collapsing Anatolian orogenic belts and widespread volcanism in this region. The sharp, north-pointing cusp (Isparta Angle) between the Hellenic and Cyprus trenches along the modern Anatolian–African plate boundary corresponds to a subduction-transform edge propagator (STEP) fault, which is an artifact of a slab tear within the downgoing African lithosphere.

Long-term evolution of the North Anatolian Fault: new constraints from its eastern termination

The deformation and40Ar–39Ar dating of recent volcanism, that remarkably sits across the North Anatolian Fault eastern termination in Turkey, together with previous studies, put strong constraints on the long-term evolution of the fault. We argue that after a first phase of 10 Ma, characterized by a slip rate of about 3 mm/a, and during which most of the trace was established, the slip rate jumped to about 20 mm/a on average over the last 2.5 Ma, without substantial increase of the fault length. The transition correlates with a change in the geometry at the junction with the East Anatolian Fault that makes the extrusion process more efficient.

Oligocene–Miocene basin evolution in SE Anatolia, Turkey: constraints on the closure of the eastern Tethys gateway

The Oligocene–Miocene was a time characterized by major climate changes as well as changing plate configurations. The Middle Miocene Climate Transition (17 to 11 Ma) may even have been triggered by a plate tectonic event: the closure of the eastern Tethys gateway, the marine connection between the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean. To address this idea, we focus on the evolution of Oligocene and Miocene foreland basins in the southernmost part of Turkey, the most likely candidates to have formed this gateway. In addition, we take the geodynamic evolution of the Arabian–Eurasian collision into account.

The Muş and Elazığ basins, located to the north of the Bitlis–Zagros suture zone, were most likely connected during the Oligocene. The deepening of both basins is biostratigraphically dated by us to occur during the Rupelian (Early Oligocene). Deep marine conditions (between 350 and 750 m) prevailed until the Chattian (Late Oligocene), when the basins shoaled rapidly to subtidal/intertidal environment in tropical to subtropical conditions, as indicated by the macrofossil assemblages. We conclude that the emergence of this basin during the Chattian severely restricted the marine connection between an eastern (Indian Ocean) and western (Mediterranean) marine domain. If a connection persisted it was likely located south of the Bitlis–Zagros suture zone. The Kahramanmaraş basin, located on the northern Arabian promontory south of the Bitlis–Zagros suture zone, was a foreland basin during the Middle and Late Miocene, possibly linked to the Hatay basin to the west and the Lice basin to the east. Our data indicates that this foreland basin experienced shallow marine conditions during the Langhian, followed by a rapid deepening during Langhian/Serravallian and prevailing deep marine conditions (between 350 and 750 m) until the early Tortonian. We have dated the youngest sediments underneath a subduction-related thrust at c. 11 Ma and suggest that this corresponds to the end of underthrusting in the Kahramanmaraş region, i.e. the end of subduction of Arabia. This age coincides in time with the onset of eastern Anatolian volcanism, uplift of the East Anatolian Accretionary Complex, and the onset of the North and East Anatolian Fault Zones accommodating westward escape tectonics of Anatolia. After c. 11 Ma, the foreland basin south of the Bitlis formed not (or no longer) a deep marine connection along the northern margin of Arabia between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. We finally conclude that a causal link between gateway closure and global climate change to a cooler mode, recorded in the Mi3b event (δ18O increase) dated at 13.82 Ma, cannot be supported.

GPS Velocity and Strain Rate Fields in Southwest Anatolia from Repeated GPS Measurements

Southwestern Turkey is a tectonically active area. To determine kinematics and strain distribution in this region, a GPS network of sixteen stations was established. We have used GPS velocity field data for southwest Anatolia from continuous measurements covering the period 2003 to 2006 to estimate current crustal deformation of this tectonically active region. GPS data were processed using GAMIT/GLOBK software and velocity and strain rate fields were estimated in the study area. The measurements showed velocities of 15–30 mm/yr toward the southwest and strain values up to 0.28–8.23×10⁻⁸. Results showed that extension has been determined in the Burdur-Isparta region. In this study, all of strain data reveal an extensional neotectonic regime through the northeast edge of the Isparta Angle despite the previously reported compressional neotectonic regime. Meanwhile, results showed some small differences relatively with the 2006 model of Reilinger et al. As a result, active tectonic movements, in agreement with earthquake fault plane solutions showed important activity.

Geodetic Network Design and Optimization on the Active Tuzla Fault (Izmir, Turkey) for Disaster Management

Both seismological and geodynamic research emphasize that the Aegean Region, which comprises the Hellenic Arc, the Greek mainland and Western Turkey is the most seismically active region in Western Eurasia. The convergence of the Eurasian and African lithospheric plates forces a westward motion on the Anatolian plate relative to the Eurasian one. Western Anatolia is a valuable laboratory for Earth Science research because of its complex geological structure. Izmir is a large city in Turkey with a population of about 2.5 million that is at great risk from big earthquakes. Unfortunately, previous geodynamics studies performed in this region are insufficient or cover large areas instead of specific faults. The Tuzla Fault, which is aligned trending NE-SW between the town of Menderes and Cape Doganbey, is an important fault in terms of seismic activity and its proximity to the city of Izmir. This study aims to perform a large scale investigation focusing on the Tuzla Fault and its vicinity for better understanding of the region's tectonics. In order to investigate the crustal deformation along the Tuzla Fault and Izmir Bay, a geodetic network has been designed and optimizations were performed. This paper suggests a schedule for a crustal deformation monitoring study which includes research on the tectonics of the region, network design and optimization strategies, theory and practice of processing. The study is also open for extension in terms of monitoring different types of fault characteristics. A one-dimensional fault model with two parameters - standard strike-slip model of dislocation theory in an elastic half-space - is formulated in order to determine which sites are suitable for the campaign based geodetic GPS measurements. Geodetic results can be used as a background data for disaster management systems.

Understanding tsunamis, potential source regions and tsunami-prone mechanisms in the Eastern Mediterranean

Historical tsunamis and tsunami propagation are synthesized in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea region, with particular attention to the Hellenic and the Cyprus arcs and the Levantine basin, to obtain a better picture of the tsunamigenic zones. Historical data of tsunami manifestation in the region are analysed, and compared with current seismic activity and plate interactions. Numerical simulations of potential and historical tsunamis reported in the Cyprus and Hellenic arcs are performed as case studies in the context of the nonlinear shallow-water theory. Tsunami wave heights as well as their distribution function are calculated for the Paphos earthquake of 11 May 1222 and the Crete earthquake of 8 August 1303 as illustrative examples depicting the characteristics of tsunami propagation, and the effects of coastal topography and near-shore amplification. The simulation studies also revealed that the long-normal distributions are compatible with reported damage. Furthermore, it is necessary to note that high-resolution bathymetry maps are a crucial component in tsunami wave simulations, and this aspect is rather poorly developed in the Eastern Mediterranean. The current study also demonstrates the role of bottom irregularities in determining the wave-height distribution near coastlines. Assuming the probability of occurrence of destructive tsunamigenic earthquakes, these studies will help us to evaluate the tsunami hazard for the coastal plains of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea region. We suggest that future oceanographic and marine geophysical research should aim to improve the resolution of bathymetric maps, particularly for the details of the continental shelf and seamounts.

Shear velocity structure in the Aegean region obtained by joint inversion of Rayleigh and Love waves

We present a shear velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle under the Aegean region by simultaneous inversion of Rayleigh and Love waves. The database consists of regional earthquakes recorded by portable broadband three-component digital stations that were installed for a period of 6 months in the broader Aegean region. For each epicentre–station ray path group velocity dispersion curves are measured using appropriate frequency time analysis (FTAN). The dispersion measurements for more than 600 Love wave paths have been used. We have also incorporated previous results forc. 700 Rayleigh wave paths for the study area. The single-path dispersion curves of both waves were inverted to regional group velocity maps for different values of period (6–32 s) via a tomographic method. The local dispersion curves of discrete grid points for both surface waves were inverted nonlinearly to construct 1D models of shear-wave velocity v. depth. In most cases the joint inversion of Rayleigh and Love waves resulted in a single model (from the multiple models compatible with the data) that could interpret both Rayleigh and Love wave data. Around 60 local dispersion curves for both Rayleigh and Love waves were finally jointly inverted. As expected, because of the complex tectonic environment of the Aegean region the results show strong lateral variations of the S-wave velocities for the crust and uppermost mantle. Our results confirm the presence of a thin crust typically less than 28–30 km in the whole Aegean Sea, which in some parts of the southern and central Aegean Sea becomes significantly thinner (20–22 km). In contrast, a large crustal thickness of about 40–45 km exists in western Greece, and the remaining part of continental Greece is characterized by a mean crustal thickness of about 35 km. A significant sub-Moho upper mantle low-velocity zone (LVLmantle) with velocities as low as 3.7 km s−1, is clearly identified in the southern and central Aegean Sea, correlated with the high heat flow in the mantle wedge above the subducted slab and the related active volcanism in the region. The results obtained results are compared with independent body-wave tomographic information on the velocity structure of the study area and exhibit a generally good agreement, although significant small-scale differences are also identified.

Global catalogue, classification and tectonic origins of restraining- and releasing bends on active and ancient strike-slip fault systems

Restraining- and releasing bends with similar morphology and structure have been described by many previous studies of strike-slip faults in a variety of active and ancient tectonic settings. Despite the documentation of at least 49 restraining and 144 releasing bends along active and ancient strike-slip faults in the continents and oceans, there is no consensus on how these structural features are named and classified, or how their wide range of structures and morphologies are controlled by the distinctive strike-slip tectonic settings in which they form. In this overview, I have compiled published information on the strike-slip tectonic setting, size, basin and bend type, age, and models for active and ancient releasing and restraining bends. Examples of bends on strike-slip faults are compiled and illustrated from five distinctive active strike-slip settings:

Kinematics of the Amanos Fault, southern Turkey, from Ar/Ar dating of offset Pleistocene basalt flows: transpression between the African and Arabian plates

We report four new Ar/Ar dates and 18 new geochemical analyses of Pleistocene basalts from the Karasu Valley of southern Turkey. These rocks have become offset left-laterally by slip on the N20°E-striking Amanos Fault. The geochemical analyses help to correlate some of the less-obvious offset fragments of basalt flows, and thus to measure amounts of slip; the dates enable slip rates to be calculated. On the basis of four individual slip-rate determinations, obtained in this manner, we estimate a weighted mean slip rate for this fault of 2.89±0.05mm/a (±2σ). We have also obtained a slip rate of 2.68±0.54mm/a (±2σ) for the subparallel East Hatay Fault farther east. Summing these values gives 5.57±0.54mm/a (±2σ) as the overall left-lateral slip rate across the Dead Sea fault zone (DSFZ) in the Karasu Valley. These slip-rate estimates and other evidence from farther south on the DSFZ are consistent with a preferred Euler vector for the relative rotation of the Arabian and African plates of 0.434±0.012° Ma−1 about 31.1°N, 26.7°E. The Amanos Fault is misaligned to the tangential direction to this pole by 52° in the transpressive sense. Its geometry thus requires significant fault-normal distributed crustal shortening, taken up by crustal thickening and folding, in the adjacent Amanos Mountains. The vertical component of slip on the Amanos Fault is estimated as c. 0.15mm/a. This minor component contributes to the uplift of the Amanos Mountains, which reaches rates of c. 0.2–0.4mm/a. These slip rate estimates are considered representative of time since. 3.73±0.05Ma, when the modern geometry of strike-slip faulting developed in this region; an estimated 11km of slip on the Amanos Fault and c. 10km of slip on the East Hatay Fault have occurred since then. It is inferred that both these faults came into being, and the associated deformation in the Amanos Mountains began, at that time. Prior to that, the northern part of the Africa–Arabia plate boundary was located further east.

Space geodetic evidence for rapid strain rates in the New Madrid seismic zone of central USA

In the winter of 1811-1812, near the town of New Madrid in the central United States and more than 2,000 km from the nearest plate boundary, three earthquakes within three months shook the entire eastern half of the country and liquefied the ground over distances far greater than any historic earthquake in North America. The origin and modern significance of these earthquakes, however, is highly contentious. Geological evidence demonstrates that liquefaction due to strong ground shaking, similar in scale to that generated by the New Madrid earthquakes, has occurred at least three and possibly four times in the past 2,000 years (refs 4-6), consistent with recurrence statistics derived from regional seismicity. Here we show direct evidence for rapid strain rates in the area determined from a continuously operated global positioning system (GPS) network. Rates of strain are of the order of 10(-7) per year, comparable in magnitude to those across active plate boundaries, and are consistent with known active faults within the region. These results have significant implications for the definition of seismic hazard and for processes that drive intraplate seismicity.