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Liu M, Song Y, Matsui H, Shang F, Kang L, Cai X, Zhang H, Zhu T. Enhanced atmospheric oxidation toward carbon neutrality reduces methane's climate forcing. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3148. [PMID: 38605008 PMCID: PMC11009326 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47436-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024] Open
Abstract
The hydroxyl radical (OH), as the central atmospheric oxidant, controls the removal rates of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. It is being suggested that OH levels would decrease with reductions of nitrogen oxides and ozone levels by climate polices, but this remains unsettled. Here, we show that driven by the carbon neutrality pledge, the global-mean OH concentration, derived from multiple chemistry-climate model simulations, is projected to be significantly increasing with a trend of 0.071‒0.16% per year during 2015-2100. The leading cause of this OH enhancement is dramatic decreases in carbon monoxide and methane concentrations, which together reduce OH sinks. The OH increase shortens methane's lifetime by 0.19‒1.1 years across models and subsequently diminishes methane's radiative forcing. If following a largely unmitigated scenario, the global OH exhibits a significant decrease that would exacerbate methane's radiative forcing. Thus, we highlight that targeted emission abatement strategies for sustained oxidation capacity can benefit climate change mitigation in the Anthropocene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingxu Liu
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
- Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Yu Song
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Hitoshi Matsui
- Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
| | - Fang Shang
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Ling Kang
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Xuhui Cai
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Hongsheng Zhang
- Laboratory for Atmosphere-Ocean Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Tong Zhu
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
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Qian J, Liao H, Yang Y, Li K, Chen L, Zhu J. Meteorological influences on daily variation and trend of summertime surface ozone over years of 2015-2020: Quantification for cities in the Yangtze River Delta. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 834:155107. [PMID: 35398137 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Revised: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 04/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
We quantify the meteorological influences on daily variations and trends of maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O3) concentrations by using multiple linear regression (MLR) and Lindeman, Merenda, and Gold (LMG) approaches. Different from previous region-based studies, we pay special attention to meteorological influences at city scale. Over 2015-2019, daily changes in key meteorological parameters could explain 47%-74% of the observed daily variations in summertime MDA8 O3 concentrations in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and four cities (Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei), with RH being the top driver. Over years of 2015-2020, daily concentrations of MDA8 O3 obtained from MLR equations (MDA8O3_MLR) of the local cities always had better performance than those of YRD. Compared with the observed daily MDA8 O3 in June-July-August (JJA) over the studied period, daily MDA8O3_MLR of the local cities (of YRD) had correlation coefficients of 0.73 (0.63), 0.75 (0.74), 0.79 (0.78), and 0.76 (0.73) in Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei, respectively, and the MDA8O3_MLR of the local cities (of YRD) captured 54% (17%), 63% (51%), 52% (27%) of the observed O3-polluted days (days with MDA8 O3 concentration exceeding 160 μg m-3) in Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, respectively. The meteorologically driven trends (Trend_Met) in MDA8 O3 were calculated using the established MLR equations. Over 2015-2019, the observed trends (Trend_Obs) and Trend_Met in MDA8 O3 were mostly positive in YRD, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei. In Shanghai, Trend_Obs, Trend_Met, and anthropogenically driven trend (estimated as Trend_Obs minus Trend_Met) of MDA8 O3 in JJA over 2015-2019 were -1.3, +1.0, and -2.3 μg m-3 y-1, respectively, indicating that the emission control measures alleviated O3 pollution in this city. Our results suggest that it is necessary to establish MLR equations at city scale to account for the role of meteorology in the actions of O3 pollution control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Qian
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental Cleaning Materials, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Hong Liao
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental Cleaning Materials, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Yang Yang
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental Cleaning Materials, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Ke Li
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental Cleaning Materials, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Lei Chen
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental Cleaning Materials, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Jia Zhu
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental Cleaning Materials, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
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Schwantes RH, Lacey FG, Tilmes S, Emmons LK, Lauritzen PH, Walters S, Callaghan P, Zarzycki CM, Barth MC, Jo DS, Bacmeister JT, Neale RB, Vitt F, Kluzek E, Roozitalab B, Hall SR, Ullmann K, Warneke C, Peischl J, Pollack IB, Flocke F, Wolfe GM, Hanisco TF, Keutsch FN, Kaiser J, Bui TPV, Jimenez JL, Campuzano‐Jost P, Apel EC, Hornbrook RS, Hills AJ, Yuan B, Wisthaler A. Evaluating the Impact of Chemical Complexity and Horizontal Resolution on Tropospheric Ozone Over the Conterminous US With a Global Variable Resolution Chemistry Model. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 2022; 14:e2021MS002889. [PMID: 35864945 PMCID: PMC9286600 DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002889] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2021] [Revised: 02/24/2022] [Accepted: 04/24/2022] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
A new configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Community Atmosphere Model with full chemistry (CAM-chem) supporting the capability of horizontal mesh refinement through the use of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core is developed and called CESM/CAM-chem-SE. Horizontal mesh refinement in CESM/CAM-chem-SE is unique and novel in that pollutants such as ozone are accurately represented at human exposure relevant scales while also directly including global feedbacks. CESM/CAM-chem-SE with mesh refinement down to ∼14 km over the conterminous US (CONUS) is the beginning of the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICAv0). Here, MUSICAv0 is evaluated and used to better understand how horizontal resolution and chemical complexity impact ozone and ozone precursors over CONUS as compared to measurements from five aircraft campaigns, which occurred in 2013. This field campaign analysis demonstrates the importance of using finer horizontal resolution to accurately simulate ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. In general, the impact of using more complex chemistry on ozone and other oxidation products is more pronounced when using finer horizontal resolution where a larger number of chemical regimes are resolved. Large model biases for ozone near the surface remain in the Southeast US as compared to the aircraft observations even with updated chemistry and finer horizontal resolution. This suggests a need for adding the capability of replacing sections of global emission inventories with regional inventories, increasing the vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer, and reducing model biases in meteorological variables such as temperature and clouds.
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Yin H, Liu C, Hu Q, Liu T, Wang S, Gao M, Xu S, Zhang C, Su W. Opposite impact of emission reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown period on the surface concentrations of PM 2.5 and O 3 in Wuhan, China. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2021; 289:117899. [PMID: 34358865 PMCID: PMC8326756 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Revised: 07/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese megacity Wuhan has taken emergent lockdown measures starting on January 23, 2020. This provided a natural experiment to investigate the response of air quality to such emission reductions. Here, we decoupled the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on main air pollutants using generalized additive models (GAMs), driven by data from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC) network. During the lockdown period (Jan. 23 - Apr. 8, 2020), PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations decreased significantly by 45 %, 49 %, 56 %, 39 %, and 18 % compared with the corresponding period in 2015-2019, with contributions by S(meteos) of 15 %, 17 %, 13 %, 10 %, and 6 %. This indicates an emission reduction of NOx at least 43 %. However, O3 increased by 43 % with a contribution by S(meteos) of 6 %. In spite of the reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by 30 % during the strict lockdown period (Jan. 23 - Feb. 14, 2020), which likely reduced the production of O3, O3 concentrations increased due to a weakening of the titration effect of NO. Our results suggest that conventional emission reduction (NOx reduction only) measures may not be sufficient to reduce (or even lead to an increase of) surface O3 concentrations, even if reaching the limit, and VOC-specific measures should also be taken.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Yin
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, HFIPS, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, 230031, China; Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China
| | - Cheng Liu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, HFIPS, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, 230031, China; Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China; Center for Excellence in Regional Atmospheric Environment, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, 361021, China; Key Laboratory of Precision Scientific Instrumentation of Anhui Higher Education Institutes, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Polar Environment and Global Change, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China.
| | - Qihou Hu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, HFIPS, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, 230031, China
| | - Ting Liu
- School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China
| | - Shuntian Wang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, HFIPS, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, 230031, China; Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China
| | - Meng Gao
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Shiqi Xu
- School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China
| | - Chengxin Zhang
- Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China
| | - Wenjing Su
- School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China
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5
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Air Pollution and Climate Drive Annual Growth in Ponderosa Pine Trees in Southern California. CLIMATE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/cli9050082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas ex C. Lawson) is a climate-sensitive tree species dominant in the mixed conifer stands of the San Bernardino Mountains of California. However, the close proximity to the city of Los Angeles has resulted in extremely high levels of air pollution. Nitrogen (N) deposition, resulting from nitrous oxides emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, has been recorded in this region since the 1980s. The impact of this N deposition on ponderosa pine growth is complex and often obscured by other stressors including climate, bark beetle attack, and tropospheric ozone pollution. Here I use a 160-year-long (1855–2015) ponderosa pine tree ring chronology to examine the annual response of tree growth to both N deposition and climate in this region. The chronology is generated from 34 tree cores taken near Crestline, CA. A stepwise multiple regression between the tree ring chronology and various climate and air pollution stressors indicates that drought conditions at the end of the rainy season (March) and NO2 pollution during the water year (pOct-Sep) exhibit primary controls on growth (r2-adj = 0.65, p < 0.001). The direct correlation between NO2 and tree growth suggests that N deposition has a positive impact on ponderosa pine bole growth in this region. However, it is important to note that ozone, a known stressor to ponderosa pine trees, and NO2 are also highly correlated (r = 0.84, p < 0.05). Chronic exposure to both ozone and nitrogen dioxide may, therefore, have unexpected impacts on tree sensitivity to climate and other stressors in a warming world.
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Skowron A, Lee DS, De León RR, Lim LL, Owen B. Greater fuel efficiency is potentially preferable to reducing NO x emissions for aviation's climate impacts. Nat Commun 2021; 12:564. [PMID: 33495470 PMCID: PMC7835228 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20771-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2019] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Aviation emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) alter the composition of the atmosphere, perturbing the greenhouse gases ozone and methane, resulting in positive and negative radiative forcing effects, respectively. In 1981, the International Civil Aviation Organization adopted a first certification standard for the regulation of aircraft engine NOx emissions with subsequent increases in stringency in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010 to offset the growth of the environmental impact of air transport, the main motivation being to improve local air quality with the assumed co-benefit of reducing NOx emissions at altitude and therefore their climate impacts. Increased stringency is an ongoing topic of discussion and more stringent standards are usually associated with their beneficial environmental impact. Here we show that this is not necessarily the right direction with respect to reducing the climate impacts of aviation (as opposed to local air quality impacts) because of the tradeoff effects between reducing NOx emissions and increased fuel usage, along with a revised understanding of the radiative forcing effects of methane. Moreover, the predicted lower surface air pollution levels in the future will be beneficial for reducing the climate impact of aviation NOx emissions. Thus, further efforts leading to greater fuel efficiency, and therefore lower CO2 emissions, may be preferable to reducing NOx emissions in terms of aviation's climate impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agnieszka Skowron
- grid.25627.340000 0001 0790 5329Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
| | - David S. Lee
- grid.25627.340000 0001 0790 5329Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
| | - Rubén Rodríguez De León
- grid.25627.340000 0001 0790 5329Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
| | - Ling L. Lim
- grid.25627.340000 0001 0790 5329Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
| | - Bethan Owen
- grid.25627.340000 0001 0790 5329Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
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Abstract
This study compares and analyzes simulations of ozone under different scenarios by three CMIP6 models (IPSL-CM6A, MRI-ESM2 and CESM-WACCM). Results indicate that as the social vulnerability and anthropogenic radiative forcing is increasing, the change of total column ozone in the tropical stratosphere is not linear. Compared to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 are more favorable for the increase in stratospheric ozone mass in the tropics. Arctic ozone would never recover under the SSP1-2.6 scenario; however, the Antarctica ozone would gradually recover in all scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the trend of tropical total column ozone is mainly determined by the trend of column ozone in the tropical troposphere. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, tropospheric ozone concentration will significantly increase; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, ozone concentration will distinctly increase in the middle and lower troposphere.
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8
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Dong Y, Li J, Guo J, Jiang Z, Chu Y, Chang L, Yang Y, Liao H. The impact of synoptic patterns on summertime ozone pollution in the North China Plain. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 735:139559. [PMID: 32480158 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2020] [Revised: 05/17/2020] [Accepted: 05/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Surface ozone pollution is a challenging environmental issue in most parts of China. In particular, the North China Plain (NCP) region suffers from the severest ozone pollution throughout the country. In addition to the emission of precursors, ozone concentration is closely related to meteorological conditions resulting from regional atmospheric circulation. In this study, we investigate the relationship between synoptic patterns and summertime ozone pollution in the NCP using the objective principal component analysis in T-mode (T-PCA) classification method. Four dominant synoptic patterns are identified during the summers of 2014-2018. The heaviest ozone pollution is found to be associated with a high pressure anomaly over the Northwest Pacific and a distinct low pressure center in Northeast China. The southwesterly wind surrounding the low pressure center brings dry, warm air from inland South China, resulting in a high temperature, low humidity environment in the NCP, which favors the chemical formation of surface ozone. Locally, this type is associated with a moderate planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) of ~860 m and a stronger warm anomaly within the boundary layer than the upper level. We also notice a non-linear relationship between surface ozone concentration and the PBLH, i.e., ozone concentration first increases with PBLH till ~0.9 km, and then remains stable. This initial increase may relate to enhanced mixing with upper levels where ozone concentration is typically higher than that near the surface. However, when PBLH further increases, this downward mixing effect is balanced with the stronger upward turbulent mixing so that surface ozone shows little change. The synoptic patterns identified here, however, is unlikely responsible for the observed increasing trend in ozone concentration over the NCP region. Our study sheds light on the meteorological contribution to surface ozone pollution in North China and provides a reference for the pollution control and prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yueming Dong
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Jing Li
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
| | - Jianping Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Zhongjing Jiang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Yiqi Chu
- Beijing Institute of Radio Measurement, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Liang Chang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Yang Yang
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Hong Liao
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
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Representing Organic Compound Oxidation in Chemical Mechanisms for Policy-Relevant Air Quality Models under Background Troposphere Conditions. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11020171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This intercomparison has taken thirteen chemical mechanisms and compared how they treat VOC oxidation and degradation and its relationship to the photochemical formation of ozone and hydroxyl radicals. Here, we have looked in some detail at the incremental responses of hydroxyl radicals to incremental additions of a range of organic compounds under conditions appropriate to the background atmosphere. Most of the time, with most organic compounds and most chemical mechanisms, incremental additions of an organic compound led to depletion of hydroxyl radical concentrations. The chemical mechanisms studied demonstrated increasingly negative incremental hydroxyl radical reactivities with increasing carbon numbers for the alkanes ethane, propane and n-butane. Hydroxyl radical incremental reactivities for the simple alkenes, ethylene and propylene, were reasonably consistent across the chemical mechanisms studied. However, this consistent representation did not extend to trans but-2-ene, where reactivity estimates spanned a range of a factor of five. Incremental reactivities were reasonably well-defined for isoprene which was encouraging in view of its importance to background tropospheric chemistry. The most serious discrepancies emerging from this study were found with the aromatics toluene and o-xylene, and with the Master Chemical Mechanism and these are discussed in some detail.
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10
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Doherty RM, Heal MR, O’Connor FM. Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality. Environ Health 2017; 16:118. [PMID: 29219103 PMCID: PMC5773909 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-017-0325-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH4) abundances lead to increases in background O3 that offset the O3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O3 - termed the O3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O3 distribution, such as daily maximum O3. Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O3-related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O3-respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH4 leads to global and European excess O3-respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruth M. Doherty
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Alexander Crum Brown Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF UK
| | - Mathew R. Heal
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, David Brewster Road, Edinburgh, Scotland EH9 3FJ UK
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11
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Schnell JL, Prather MJ, Josse B, Naik V, Horowitz LW, Zeng G, Shindell DT, Faluvegi G. Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2016; 43:3509-3518. [PMID: 32818004 PMCID: PMC7430523 DOI: 10.1002/2016gl068060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordan L Schnell
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Michael J Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Beatrice Josse
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France
| | - Vaishali Naik
- UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Larry W Horowitz
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Guang Zeng
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
| | - Drew T Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Greg Faluvegi
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Columbia Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
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12
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Garcia-Menendez F, Saari RK, Monier E, Selin NE. U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2015; 49:7580-8. [PMID: 26053628 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections. Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts, and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to cobenefits from reductions to coemitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050 and 2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Garcia-Menendez
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Rebecca K Saari
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Erwan Monier
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Noelle E Selin
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
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Shallcross DE, Leather KE, Bacak A, Xiao P, Lee EPF, Ng M, Mok DKW, Dyke JM, Hossaini R, Chipperfield MP, Khan MAH, Percival CJ. Reaction between CH3O2 and BrO Radicals: A New Source of Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere Hydroxyl Radicals. J Phys Chem A 2015; 119:4618-32. [DOI: 10.1021/jp5108203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Kimberley E. Leather
- School
of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Williamson Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, U.K
| | - Asan Bacak
- School
of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Williamson Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, U.K
| | - Ping Xiao
- School
of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS, U.K
| | - Edmond P. F. Lee
- School
of Chemistry, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, U.K
- Department
of Applied Biology and Chemical Technology, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| | - Maggie Ng
- Department
of Applied Biology and Chemical Technology, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| | - Daniel K. W. Mok
- Department
of Applied Biology and Chemical Technology, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| | - John M. Dyke
- School
of Chemistry, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, U.K
| | - Ryan Hossaini
- School
of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, U.K
| | | | - M. Anwar H. Khan
- School
of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS, U.K
| | - Carl J. Percival
- School
of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Williamson Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, U.K
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14
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Fiore AM, Naik V, Spracklen DV, Steiner A, Unger N, Prather M, Bergmann D, Cameron-Smith PJ, Cionni I, Collins WJ, Dalsøren S, Eyring V, Folberth GA, Ginoux P, Horowitz LW, Josse B, Lamarque JF, MacKenzie IA, Nagashima T, O'Connor FM, Righi M, Rumbold ST, Shindell DT, Skeie RB, Sudo K, Szopa S, Takemura T, Zeng G. Global air quality and climate. Chem Soc Rev 2012; 41:6663-83. [PMID: 22868337 DOI: 10.1039/c2cs35095e] [Citation(s) in RCA: 114] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arlene M Fiore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
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15
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Deushi M, Shibata K. Development of a Meteorological Research Institute Chemistry-Climate Model version 2 for the Study of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Chemistry. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.2467/mripapers.62.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022]
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16
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Lee DS, Fahey DW, Forster PM, Newton PJ, Wit RC, Lim LL, Owen B, Sausen R. Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT (OXFORD, ENGLAND : 1994) 2009; 43:3520-3537. [PMID: 32362760 PMCID: PMC7185790 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 122] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2008] [Revised: 04/07/2009] [Accepted: 04/08/2009] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr-1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m-2 (23-87 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m-2 (38-139 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.
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Affiliation(s)
- David S. Lee
- Dalton Research Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD, United Kingdom
- Corresponding author.
| | - David W. Fahey
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Piers M. Forster
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
| | - Peter J. Newton
- Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, Aviation Directorate, United Kingdom
| | - Ron C.N. Wit
- Natuur en Milieu, Donkerstraat 17, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Ling L. Lim
- Dalton Research Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - Bethan Owen
- Dalton Research Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD, United Kingdom
| | - Robert Sausen
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
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17
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Liao H, Zhang Y, Chen WT, Raes F, Seinfeld JH. Effect of chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling on predictions of future climate and future levels of tropospheric ozone and aerosols. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd010984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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18
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Ito A, Sillman S, Penner JE. Global chemical transport model study of ozone response to changes in chemical kinetics and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to increasing temperatures: Sensitivities to isoprene nitrate chemistry and grid resolution. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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19
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Jacobson MZ, Streets DG. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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20
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Xie F, Tian W, Chipperfield MP. Radiative effect of ozone change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd009829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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21
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Wu S, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Rind D, Streets DG. Effects of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy-relevant background surface ozone in the United States. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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22
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Zhang Y, Hu XM, Leung LR, Gustafson WI. Impacts of regional climate change on biogenic emissions and air quality. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd009965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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23
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Wu S, Mickley LJ, Leibensperger EM, Jacob DJ, Rind D, Streets DG. Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd008917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 143] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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24
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Kloster S, Six KD, Feichter J, Maier-Reimer E, Roeckner E, Wetzel P, Stier P, Esch M. Response of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the ocean and atmosphere to global warming. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jg000224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- S. Kloster
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Hamburg Germany
| | - K. D. Six
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Hamburg Germany
| | - J. Feichter
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Hamburg Germany
| | | | - E. Roeckner
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Hamburg Germany
| | - P. Wetzel
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Hamburg Germany
| | - P. Stier
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Hamburg Germany
| | - M. Esch
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Hamburg Germany
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25
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Monson RK, Trahan N, Rosenstiel TN, Veres P, Moore D, Wilkinson M, Norby RJ, Volder A, Tjoelker MG, Briske DD, Karnosky DF, Fall R. Isoprene emission from terrestrial ecosystems in response to global change: minding the gap between models and observations. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2007; 365:1677-95. [PMID: 17513269 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Coupled surface-atmosphere models are being used with increased frequency to make predictions of tropospheric chemistry on a 'future' earth characterized by a warmer climate and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. One of the key inputs to these models is the emission of isoprene from forest ecosystems. Most models in current use rely on a scheme by which global change is coupled to changes in terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) which, in turn, is coupled to changes in the magnitude of isoprene emissions. In this study, we conducted measurements of isoprene emissions at three prominent global change experiments in the United States. Our results showed that growth in an atmosphere of elevated CO2 inhibited the emission of isoprene at levels that completely compensate for possible increases in emission due to increases in aboveground NPP. Exposure to a prolonged drought caused leaves to increase their isoprene emissions despite reductions in photosynthesis, and presumably NPP. Thus, the current generation of models intended to predict the response of isoprene emission to future global change probably contain large errors. A framework is offered as a foundation for constructing new isoprene emission models based on the responses of leaf biochemistry to future climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Russell K Monson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
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26
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Pyle JA, Warwick N, Yang X, Young PJ, Zeng G. Climate/chemistry feedbacks and biogenic emissions. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2007; 365:1727-40. [PMID: 17513263 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere is affected by anthropogenic emissions and is projected to change in the future. Model calculations indicate that the change in surface ozone at some locations could be large and have significant implications for human health. The calculations depend on the precise scenarios used for the anthropogenic emissions and on the details of the feedback processes included in the model. One important factor is how natural biogenic emissions will change in the future. We carry out a sensitivity calculation to address the possible increase in isoprene emissions consequent on increased surface temperature in a future climate. The changes in ozone are significant but depend crucially on the background chemical regime. In these calculations, we find that increased isoprene will increase ozone in the Northern Hemisphere but decrease ozone in the tropics. We also consider the role of bromine compounds in tropospheric chemistry and consider cases where, in a future climate, the impact of bromine could change.
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Pyle
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
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27
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Rae JGL, Johnson CE, Bellouin N, Boucher O, Haywood JM, Jones A. Sensitivity of global sulphate aerosol production to changes in oxidant concentrations and climate. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- J. G. L. Rae
- Met Office; Hadley Centre for Climate Change; Exeter Devon UK
| | - C. E. Johnson
- Met Office; Hadley Centre for Climate Change; Exeter Devon UK
| | - N. Bellouin
- Met Office; Hadley Centre for Climate Change; Exeter Devon UK
| | - O. Boucher
- Met Office; Hadley Centre for Climate Change; Exeter Devon UK
| | - J. M. Haywood
- Met Office; Hadley Centre for Climate Change; Exeter Devon UK
| | - A. Jones
- Met Office; Hadley Centre for Climate Change; Exeter Devon UK
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28
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Stevenson DS, Dentener FJ, Schultz MG, Ellingsen K, van Noije TPC, Wild O, Zeng G, Amann M, Atherton CS, Bell N, Bergmann DJ, Bey I, Butler T, Cofala J, Collins WJ, Derwent RG, Doherty RM, Drevet J, Eskes HJ, Fiore AM, Gauss M, Hauglustaine DA, Horowitz LW, Isaksen ISA, Krol MC, Lamarque JF, Lawrence MG, Montanaro V, Müller JF, Pitari G, Prather MJ, Pyle JA, Rast S, Rodriguez JM, Sanderson MG, Savage NH, Shindell DT, Strahan SE, Sudo K, Szopa S. Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 632] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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29
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Murazaki K, Hess P. How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States? ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd005873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 162] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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30
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Forkel R, Knoche R. Regional climate change and its impact on photooxidant concentrations in southern Germany: Simulations with a coupled regional climate-chemistry model. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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31
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Liao H, Chen WT, Seinfeld JH. Role of climate change in global predictions of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 202] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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32
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Steiner AL, Tonse S, Cohen RC, Goldstein AH, Harley RA. Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006935] [Citation(s) in RCA: 144] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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33
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Stevenson D, Doherty R, Sanderson M, Johnson C, Collins B, Derwent D. Impacts of climate change and variability on tropospheric ozone and its precursors. Faraday Discuss 2005; 130:41-57; discussion 125-51, 519-24. [PMID: 16161777 DOI: 10.1039/b417412g] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Two coupled climate-chemistry model experiments for the period 1990-2030 were conducted: one with a fixed climate and the other with a varying climate forced by the is92a scenario. By comparing results from these experiments we have attempted to identify changes and variations in physical climate that may have important influences upon tropospheric chemical composition. Climate variables considered include: temperature, humidity, convective mass fluxes, precipitation, and the large-scale circulation. Increases in humidity, directly related to increases in temperature, exert a major influence on the budgets of ozone and the hydroxyl radical: decreasing 03 and increasing OH. Warming enhances decomposition of PAN, releasing NOx, and increases the rate of methane oxidation. Surface warming enhances vegetation emissions of isoprene, an important ozone precursor. In the changed climate, tropical convection generally reduces, but penetrates to higher levels. Over northern continents, convection tends to increase. These changes in convection affect both vertical mixing and lightning NOx emissions. We find no global trend in lightning emissions, but significant changes in its distribution. Changes in precipitation and the large-scale circulation are less important for composition, at least in these experiments. Higher levels of the oxidants OH and H202 lead to increases in aerosol formation and concentrations. These results indicate that climate-chemistry feedbacks are dominantly negative (less 03, a shorter CH4 lifetime, and more aerosol). The major mode of inter-annual variability in the is92a climate experiment is ENSO. This strongly modulates isoprene emissions from vegetation via tropical land surface temperatures. ENSO is also clearly the dominant source of variability in tropical column ozone, mainly through changes in the distribution of convection. The magnitude of inter-annual variability in ozone is comparable to the changes brought about by emissions and climate changes between the 1990s and 2020s, suggesting that it will be difficult to disentangle the different components of near-future changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Stevenson
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Science, The University of Edinburgh, UK
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34
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Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Civerolo K, Ku JY, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Gaffin S, Knowlton K, Kinney PL. Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2004. [DOI: 10.1029/2004jd004690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 191] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- C. Hogrefe
- Atmospheric Sciences Research Center; State University of New York at Albany; Albany New York USA
| | - B. Lynn
- Center for Climate Systems Research; Columbia Earth Institute of Columbia University, Columbia University; New York New York USA
| | - K. Civerolo
- New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Research; Albany New York USA
| | - J.-Y. Ku
- New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Research; Albany New York USA
| | - J. Rosenthal
- Mailman School of Public Health; Columbia University; New York New York USA
| | - C. Rosenzweig
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; New York New York USA
| | - R. Goldberg
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; New York New York USA
| | - S. Gaffin
- Center for Climate Systems Research; Columbia Earth Institute of Columbia University, Columbia University; New York New York USA
| | - K. Knowlton
- Mailman School of Public Health; Columbia University; New York New York USA
| | - P. L. Kinney
- Mailman School of Public Health; Columbia University; New York New York USA
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35
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Wong S. A global climate-chemistry model study of present-day tropospheric chemistry and radiative forcing from changes in tropospheric O3since the preindustrial period. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2004. [DOI: 10.1029/2003jd003998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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36
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Gauss M, Myhre G, Pitari G, Prather MJ, Isaksen ISA, Berntsen TK, Brasseur GP, Dentener FJ, Derwent RG, Hauglustaine DA, Horowitz LW, Jacob DJ, Johnson M, Law KS, Mickley LJ, Müller JF, Plantevin PH, Pyle JA, Rogers HL, Stevenson DS, Sundet JK, van Weele M, Wild O. Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2002jd002624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- M. Gauss
- Department of Geophysics; University of Oslo; Norway
| | - G. Myhre
- Department of Geophysics; University of Oslo; Norway
| | - G. Pitari
- Dipartimento di Fisica; Università de L'Aquila, Coppito; L'Aquila Italy
| | - M. J. Prather
- Earth System Science Department; University of California at Irvine; Irvine California USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - L. W. Horowitz
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - D. J. Jacob
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Harvard University; Cambridge Massachusetts USA
| | - M. Johnson
- Chemistry Department; Cambridge University; Cambridge UK
| | - K. S. Law
- Chemistry Department; Cambridge University; Cambridge UK
| | - L. J. Mickley
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Harvard University; Cambridge Massachusetts USA
| | | | | | - J. A. Pyle
- Chemistry Department; Cambridge University; Cambridge UK
| | - H. L. Rogers
- Chemistry Department; Cambridge University; Cambridge UK
| | - D. S. Stevenson
- Institute for Meteorology; University of Edinburgh; Edinburgh UK
| | - J. K. Sundet
- Department of Geophysics; University of Oslo; Norway
| | - M. van Weele
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI); De Bilt Netherlands
| | - O. Wild
- Frontier Research System for Global Change; Yokohama Japan
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37
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Collins WJ. Effect of stratosphere-troposphere exchange on the future tropospheric ozone trend. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2002jd002617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Coyle M, Smith R, Fowler D. An ozone budget for the UK: using measurements from the national ozone monitoring network; measured and modelled meteorological data, and a 'big-leaf' resistance analogy model of dry deposition. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2003; 123:115-123. [PMID: 12663211 DOI: 10.1016/s0269-7491(02)00339-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Data from the UK national air-quality monitoring network are used to calculate an annual mass budget for ozone (O3) production and loss in the UK boundary layer during 1996. Monthly losses by dry deposition are quantified from 1 km x 1 km scale maps of O(3) concentration and O(3) deposition velocities based on a big-leaf resistance analogy. The quantity of O(3) deposition varies from approximately 50 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the winter to over 200 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the summer when vegetation is actively absorbing O(3). The net O(3) production or loss in the UK boundary layer is found by selecting days when the UK is receiving "clean" Atlantic air from the SW to NW. In these conditions, the difference in O(3) concentration observed at Mace Head and a rural site on the east coast of the UK indicates the net O(3) production or loss within the UK boundary layer. A simple box model is then used to convert the concentration difference into a mass. The final budget shows that for most of the year the UK is a net sink for O(3) (-25 to -800 Gg-O(3) month(-1)) with production only exceeding losses in the photochemically active summer months (+45 Gg-O(3) month(-1)).
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Affiliation(s)
- M Coyle
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology-Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
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39
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Liao H. Interactions between tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified general circulation model. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd001260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 130] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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40
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Grenfell JL, Shindell DT, Koch D, Rind D. Chemistry-climate interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model: 2. New insights into modeling the preindustrial atmosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd000090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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41
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Fowler D, Cape JN, Coyle M, Smith RI, Hjellbrekke AG, Simpson D, Derwent RG, Johnson CE. Modelling photochemical oxidant formation, transport, deposition and exposure of terrestrial ecosystems. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 1999; 100:43-55. [PMID: 15093112 DOI: 10.1016/s0269-7491(99)00087-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/1998] [Accepted: 03/22/1999] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
The chemical processes responsible for production of photochemical oxidants within the troposphere have been the subject of laboratory and field study throughout the last three decades. During the same period, models to simulate the atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition of ozone (O(3)) from individual urban sources and from regions have been developed. The models differ greatly in the complexity of chemical schemes, in the underlying meteorology and in spatial and temporal resolution. Input information from land use, spatial and temporally disaggregated emission inventories and meteorology have all improved considerably in recent years and are not fully implemented in current models. The development of control strategies in both North America and Europe to close the gaps between current exceedances of environmental limits, guide values, critical levels or loads and full compliance with these limits provides the focus for policy makers and the support agencies for the research. The models represent the only method of testing a range of control options in advance of implementation. This paper describes currently applied models of photochemical oxidant production and transport at global and regional scales and their ability to simulate individual episodes as well as photochemical oxidant climatology. The success of current models in quantifying the exposure of terrestrial surfaces and the population to potentially damaging O(3) concentrations (and dose) is examined. The analysis shows the degree to which the underlying processes and their application within the models limit the quality of the model products.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Fowler
- Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Edinburgh Research Station, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
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