Movement of decaying quasi-2-day wave in the austral summer-time mesosphere

The quasi-2-day wave (Q2DW) is a large temperature disturbance in the austral summer-time mesosphere. Its decay-phase movement and phase-speed are poorly understood. Q2DW events observed by the microwave limb sounder (MLS) onboard the NASA Aura satellite reveal that during the temperature Q2DW's decay-phase, the Q2DW temperature disturbance is still substantial, but its phase-speed reduces exponentially, on average, from around -70 to -20 m/s in around 30-days. Observations also reveal significant interannual variability in these phase-speed values. Q2DW events simulated by the extended Canadian middle atmosphere model (eCMAM) reveal that during the Q2DW decay-phase, the temperature Q2DW phase-speed is strongly correlated with the summer mesosphere easterly jet (SMEJ) wind values. eCMAM also shows that the phase-speed interannual variabilities partially reflect the interannual variabilities of the SMEJ. Planetary-wave diagnostics indicate that during the Q2DW's decay phase, there is still an active transfer of momentum from the SMEJ into Q2DW. The model simulations therefore indicate that the SMEJ plays a substantial role in the decaying temperature Q2DW phase-speed variabilities observed by MLS. This adds to our knowledge of how the SMEJ affects the Q2DW.

Coupled Stratospheric Chemistry–Meteorology Data Assimilation. Part I: Physical Background and Coupled Modeling Aspects

A coupled stratospheric chemistry–meteorology model was developed by combining the Canadian operational weather prediction model Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) with a comprehensive stratospheric photochemistry model from the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE). The coupled model was called GEM-BACH for GEM-Belgian Atmospheric CHemistry. The coupling was made across a chemical interface that preserves time-splitting while being modular, allowing GEM to run with or without chemistry. An evaluation of the coupling was performed by comparing the coupled model, refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 h, against the standard offline chemical transport model (CTM) approach. Results show that the dynamical meteorological consistency between meteorological analysis times far outweighs the error created by the jump resulting from the meteorological analysis increments at regular time intervals, irrespective of whether a 3D-Var or 4D-Var meteorological analysis is used. Arguments in favor of using the same horizontal resolution for chemistry, meteorology, and meteorological and chemical analysis increments are also presented. GEM-BACH forecasts refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 h were compared against independent measurements of temperature, long-lived species, ozone and water vapor. The comparison showed a relatively good agreement throughout the stratosphere except for an upper-level warm temperature bias and an ozone deficit of nearly 15%. In particular, the coupled model simulation during an ozone hole event gives better ozone concentrations than a 4D-Var chemical assimilation at a lower resolution.

Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multi-model assessment

Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO2), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end we here analyze - over identical past and future periods - the output from 20 similarly-forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multi-model analysis reveals that ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980-2000. We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO2. As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades.

On the Roles of Advection and Solar Heating in Seasonal Variation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide in the Stratosphere, Mesosphere, and Lower Thermosphere

The migrating diurnal tide (DW1) presents a unique latitudinal structure in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. In this paper, the physical mechanisms that govern its seasonal variation are examined in these three regions using the 31.5-year (1979–2010) output from the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM30). DW1 annual variation in the stratosphere is mainly controlled by the short-wave heating in the high latitudes, but by both the short-wave and adiabatic heating in the low latitudes. In the mesosphere, linear and nonlinear advection play important roles in the semiannual variation of the tide whereas short-wave heating does not. In the lower thermosphere, the annual variation of DW1 is mainly governed by the short-wave heating and linear advection. This study illustrates the complexity of the main physical mechanisms modulating the seasonal variations of DW1 in different regions of the atmosphere.