Quantifying the Impact of Atmospheric Transport Uncertainty on CO2 Surface Flux Estimates

We show that transport differences between two commonly used global chemical transport models, GEOS-Chem and TM5, lead to systematic space-time differences in modeled distributions of carbon dioxide and sulfur hexafluoride. The distribution of differences suggests inconsistencies between the transport simulated by the models, most likely due to the representation of vertical motion. We further demonstrate that these transport differences result in systematic differences in surface CO2 flux estimated by a collection of global atmospheric inverse models using TM5 and GEOS-Chem and constrained by in situ and satellite observations. While the impact on inferred surface fluxes is most easily illustrated in the magnitude of the seasonal cycle of surface CO2 exchange, it is the annual carbon budgets that are particularly relevant for carbon cycle science and policy. We show that inverse model flux estimates for large zonal bands can have systematic biases of up to 1.7 PgC/year due to large-scale transport uncertainty. These uncertainties will propagate directly into analysis of the annual meridional CO2 flux gradient between the tropics and northern midlatitudes, a key metric for understanding the location, and more importantly the processes, responsible for the annual global carbon sink. The research suggests that variability among transport models remains the largest source of uncertainty across global flux inversion systems and highlights the importance both of using model ensembles and of using independent constraints to evaluate simulated transport.

Hydrogen Isotopic Composition of Arctic and Atmospheric CH4 Determined by a Portable Near-Infrared Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometer with a Cryogenic Pre-Concentrator

In this study, near-infrared continuous wave cavity ring-down spectroscopy was applied to the measurement of the δ²H of methane (CH₄). The cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS) system consisted of multiple DFB laser diodes to optimize selection of spectral line pairs. By rapidly switching measurements between spectral line peaks and the baseline regions, the long-term instrumental drift was minimized, substantially increasing measurement precision. The CRDS system coupled with a cryogenic pre-concentrator measured the δ²H of terrestrial atmospheric CH₄ from 3 standard liters of air with a precision of ±1.7‰. The rapidity with which both C and H isotopic measurements of CH₄ can be made with the CRDS will enable hourly monitoring of diurnal variations in terrestrial atmospheric CH₄ signatures that can be used to increase the resolution of global climate models for the CH₄ cycle. Although the current instrument is not capable of measuring the δ²H of 10 ppbv of martian CH₄, current technology does exist that could make this feasible for future spaceflight missions. As biological and abiotic CH₄ sources have overlapping carbon isotope signatures, dual-element (C and H) analysis is key to reliable differentiation of these sources. Such an instrument package would therefore offer improved ability to determine whether or not the CH₄ recently detected in the martian atmosphere is biogenic in origin. Key Words: Arctic-Hydrogen isotopes-Atmospheric CH₄-CRDS-Laser. Astrobiology 16, 787-797.

Automated simultaneous measurement of the δ(13) C and δ(2) H values of methane and the δ(13) C and δ(18) O values of carbon dioxide in flask air samples using a new multi cryo-trap/gas chromatography/isotope ratio mass spectrometry system

RATIONALE

The isotopic composition of greenhouse gases helps to constrain global budgets and to study sink and source processes. We present a new system for high-precision stable isotope measurements of carbon, hydrogen and oxygen in atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide. The design is intended for analyzing flask air samples from existing sampling programs without the need for extra sample air for methane analysis.

METHODS

CO2 and CH4 isotopes are measured simultaneously using two isotope ratio mass spectrometers, one for the analysis of δ(13) C and δ(18) O values and the second one for δ(2) H values. The inlet carousel delivers air from 16 sample positions (glass flasks 1-5 L and high-pressure cylinders). Three 10-port valves take aliquots from the sample stream. CH4 from 100-mL air aliquots is preconcentrated in 0.8-mL sample loops using a new cryo-trap system. A precisely calibrated working reference air is used in parallel with the sample according to the Principle of Identical Treatment.

RESULTS

It takes about 36 hours for a fully calibrated analysis of a complete carousel including extractions of four working reference and one quality control reference air. Long-term precision values, as obtained from the quality control reference gas since 2012, account for 0.04 ‰ (δ(13) C values of CO2 ), 0.07 ‰ (δ(18) O values of CO2 ), 0.11 ‰ (δ(13) C values of CH4 ) and 1.0 ‰ (δ(2) H values of CH4 ). Within a single day, the system exhibits a typical methane δ(13) C standard deviation (1σ) of 0.06 ‰ for 10 repeated measurements.

CONCLUSIONS

The system has been in routine operation at the MPI-BGC since 2012. Consistency of the data and compatibility with results from other laboratories at a high precision level are of utmost importance. A high sample throughput and reliability of operation are important achievements of the presented system to cope with the large number of air samples to be analyzed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Satellite-derived estimations of spatial and seasonal variation in tropospheric carbon dioxide mass over China

China has frequently been questioned about the data transparency and accuracy of its energy and emission statistics. Satellite-derived remote sensing data potentially provide a useful tool to study the variation in carbon dioxide (CO₂) mass over areas of the earth's surface. In this study, Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) tropospheric CO₂ concentration data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis tropopause data were integrated to obtain estimates of tropospheric CO₂ mass variations over the surface of China. These variations were mapped to show seasonal and spatial patterns with reference to China's provincial areas. The estimates of provincial tropospheric CO₂ were related to statistical estimates of CO₂ emissions for the provinces and considered with reference to provincial populations and gross regional products (GRP). Tropospheric CO₂ masses for the Chinese provinces ranged from 53 ± 1 to 14,470 ± 63 million tonnes were greater for western than for eastern provinces and were primarily a function of provincial land area. Adjusted for land area troposphere CO₂ mass was higher for eastern and southern provinces than for western and northern provinces. Tropospheric CO₂ mass over China varied with season being highest in July and August and lowest in January and February. The average annual emission from provincial energy statistics of CO₂ by China was estimated as 10.3% of the average mass of CO₂ in the troposphere over China. The relationship between statistical emissions relative to tropospheric CO₂ mass was higher than 20% for developed coastal provinces of China, with Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beijing having exceptionally high percentages. The percentages were generally lower than 10% for western inland provinces. Provincial estimates of emissions of CO₂ were significantly positively related to provincial populations and gross regional products (GRP) when the values for the provincial municipalities Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beijing were excluded from the linear regressions. An increase in provincial GRP per person was related to a curvilinear increase in CO₂ emissions, this being particularly marked for Beijing, Tianjin, and especially Shanghai. The absence of detection of specific elevation of CO₂ mass in the troposphere above these municipalities may relate to the rapid mixing and dispersal of CO₂ emissions or the proportion of the depth of the troposphere sensed by GOSAT.

Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, and its atmospheric concentration has nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. The growth rate of atmospheric methane is determined by the balance between surface emissions and photochemical destruction by the hydroxyl radical, the major atmospheric oxidant. Remarkably, this growth rate has decreased markedly since the early 1990s, and the level of methane has remained relatively constant since 1999, leading to a downward revision of its projected influence on global temperatures. Large fluctuations in the growth rate of atmospheric methane are also observed from one year to the next, but their causes remain uncertain. Here we quantify the processes that controlled variations in methane emissions between 1984 and 2003 using an inversion model of atmospheric transport and chemistry. Our results indicate that wetland emissions dominated the inter-annual variability of methane sources, whereas fire emissions played a smaller role, except during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. These top-down estimates of changes in wetland and fire emissions are in good agreement with independent estimates based on remote sensing information and biogeochemical models. On longer timescales, our results show that the decrease in atmospheric methane growth during the 1990s was caused by a decline in anthropogenic emissions. Since 1999, however, they indicate that anthropogenic emissions of methane have risen again. The effect of this increase on the growth rate of atmospheric methane has been masked by a coincident decrease in wetland emissions, but atmospheric methane levels may increase in the near future if wetland emissions return to their mean 1990s levels.